Politics Chinese Expansionism and Imperialism

Ned_Flanders

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Declaring independence would cause a shitstorm.

You said the Taiwanese political class wants reunification, that's clearly untrue.

That they're Han Chinese is irrelevant.

The PRC isn't happy with the status quo. Hence the aggression.

You're using trouble elsewhere as cover for your support of PRC aggression.
so much wrong here

the political class want reunification, and thats why they havent declared independence. they have the USA behind them for 70 years, what stopped them? their "independence" is just a refocus to be a strong economy that isnt obsessed with the mainland (which is a very good thing) so as to give them maximum leverage in future talks

one thing with chinese politics, its generational in movements - both sides are thinking 20-50 years time, not 2-3 (like we do here)

the han is relevant because they cant claim they are a separate culture or people, they are the same for both as the mainland

the prc is happy with the status quo - which is both sides dont do sh*t as long as taiwan doesnt declare. they are having enough issues with tibet, xinjiang, and HK - they dont have the appetite for military invasion with USA involvement (contrary to the view on this board)

I dont support PRC aggression, unlike you my family is actually a chinese minority. I just see no win for Australia getting involved in fights inside china (just as i dont want us getting involved in the koreas, or iran, or israel/palestine, or god forbid kashmir)
 

sdfc

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so much wrong here

the political class want reunification, and thats why they havent declared independence. they have the USA behind them for 70 years, what stopped them? their "independence" is just a refocus to be a strong economy that isnt obsessed with the mainland (which is a very good thing) so as to give them maximum leverage in future talks

one thing with chinese politics, its generational in movements - both sides are thinking 20-50 years time, not 2-3 (like we do here)

the han is relevant because they cant claim they are a separate culture or people, they are the same for both as the mainland

the prc is happy with the status quo - which is both sides dont do sh*t as long as taiwan doesnt declare. they are having enough issues with tibet, xinjiang, and HK - they dont have the appetite for military invasion with USA involvement (contrary to the view on this board)

I dont support PRC aggression, unlike you my family is actually a chinese minority. I just see no win for Australia getting involved in fights inside china (just as i dont want us getting involved in the koreas, or iran, or israel/palestine, or god forbid kashmir)
Believing that Taiwan could just declare independence with no consequences is really quite clueless.

What's with the ethno-nationalism.

Good of you to bring up the invasion of Tibet, concentration camps in Xinjiang and the PRC tramping all over the agreement with the people of Hong Kong. I'm not sure how that supports your argument.

Your ethnicity is irrelevant to the argument.

I don't know if you agree with Chinese aggression but you're putting together a lot of excuses for it.
 

Ned_Flanders

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Believing that Taiwan could just declare independence with no consequences is really quite clueless.

What's with the ethno-nationalism.

Good of you to bring up the invasion of Tibet, concentration camps in Xinjiang and the PRC tramping all over the agreement with the people of Hong Kong. I'm not sure how that supports your argument.

Your ethnicity is irrelevant to the argument.

I don't know if you agree with Chinese aggression but you're putting together a lot of excuses for it.
not ethno, cultural. by your reckoning tasmania can become independent just because they are an island

I think their aggression is internal - not external. like it or not, these areas have been part of china for hundreds of years (much longer in some cases). this is internal (unlike the SCS)

its not good, but australia inserting itself into it makes as much sense as us deciding to set up camp in kashmir. its looking for a fight we have no reason to be in.
 

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sdfc

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not ethno, cultural. by your reckoning tasmania can become independent just because they are an island

I think their aggression is internal - not external. like it or not, these areas have been part of china for hundreds of years (much longer in some cases). this is internal (unlike the SCS)

its not good, but australia inserting itself into it makes as much sense as us deciding to set up camp in kashmir. its looking for a fight we have no reason to be in.
Tasmania is a poor example. By my reckoning you think Australia should rule NZ whether they like it or not, because we are culturally alike.

Taiwan isn't internal to mainland China. Hasn't been since 1949.

We should all keep silent when bullies are doing their thing is what you are saying.

We should all keep quiet when large countries invade their neighbours or lock up their citizens in concentration camps.

It's not good? You've spent a fair amount of time defending it.
 

Ned_Flanders

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Tasmania is a poor example. By my reckoning you think Australia should rule NZ whether they like it or not, because we are culturally alike.

Taiwan isn't internal to mainland China. Hasn't been since 1949.

We should all keep silent when bullies are doing their thing is what you are saying.

We should all keep quiet when large countries invade their neighbours or lock up their citizens in concentration camps.

It's not good? You've spent a fair amount of time defending it.
im not a fan of other countries jumping in and saying how they should be split up. the west hasnt had a good track record of success on this. its best we but out and let people sort their sh*t out themselves.

and again, not defending it. saying its not our fight. just like the middle east, we shouldnt be involved.

anyway, we will never agree on this, so lets move on (its getting very circular)
 

Baltimore Jack

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To this day, American troops are deployed in 150 countries.

Since the 1970s, China has not once gone to war; the U.S. has not spent a day at peace once during that time.

Since 2001, the U.S. has spent over $6 trillion on military operations and war, money that might have been invested in the infrastructure of home. China, meanwhile, built its nation, pouring more cement every three years than America did in the entire 20th century.
 

ExcitementMachine

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To this day, American troops are deployed in 150 countries.

Since the 1970s, China has not once gone to war; the U.S. has not spent a day at peace once during that time.

Since 2001, the U.S. has spent over $6 trillion on military operations and war, money that might have been invested in the infrastructure of home. China, meanwhile, built its nation, pouring more cement every three years than America did in the entire 20th century.
Oh yippy China very good, US very bad.
Their guns have been pointed in - and it hasn't been pretty - wait until their guns are pointed out.
 

Ned_Flanders

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To this day, American troops are deployed in 150 countries.

Since the 1970s, China has not once gone to war; the U.S. has not spent a day at peace once during that time.

Since 2001, the U.S. has spent over $6 trillion on military operations and war, money that might have been invested in the infrastructure of home. China, meanwhile, built its nation, pouring more cement every three years than America did in the entire 20th century.
China invaded Vietnam in the late 70's (part of the whole China/Kampuchea vs Russia/Vietnam sh*t that was going on)
 

MaryMallon

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I'm ok with China taking the mantle of #1 superpower. The US and the west in general are dead, our way of life is over and the quicker people realise that the better of we will all be in the long term.
 

Total_Juddshanks

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Some people think it is edgy and cool to equate China with the US, because fu** American imperialism amirite.

Those people have absolute no idea the Orwellian nightmare that is life in China, the speed at which they are expanding, and the implications for our future if they ever achieve full superpower status.

If you want the Chinese methods of social control and coercion exported to here, you're either a traitor or goddamn moron.
 

CD Xbow

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The deputy head of mission of the People’s Republic of China in Australia Wang Xining was speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra today and this was the menu, which not so subtly trolled him
pressclub1.jpg
He was also served fine, not dumped Oz wines.
While his words where reasonable they seem to be in contradiction to many of his countries actions.
 

chunkylover53

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Some people think it is edgy and cool to equate China with the US, because fu** American imperialism amirite.

Those people have absolute no idea the Orwellian nightmare that is life in China, the speed at which they are expanding, and the implications for our future if they ever achieve full superpower status.

If you want the Chinese methods of social control and coercion exported to here, you're either a traitor or goddamn moron.
China don't want to, and never will invade us. However the way they operate and lack of human rights is certainly cause for concern. They're not a military threat either despite how much they flex their muscles. They can slap tariffs on us but most of what we trade to them, such as ore ends up elsewhere anyway. They just want everyone to trade in their crappy currency; belt and road will help that. Good luck to 'em.

You're right though, people think its trendy to hate on the US and pander to China because you know, fu** Trump, the West and Capitalism right?

Find it funny the idea of challenging China isn't accepted and can be considered racist while they continue their Uyghur genocide; no SJW's are keen to get around that topic.
 

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Ned_Flanders

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China don't want to, and never will invade us. However the way they operate and lack of human rights is certainly cause for concern. They're not a military threat either despite how much they flex their muscles. They can slap tariffs on us but most of what we trade to them, such as ore ends up elsewhere anyway. They just want everyone to trade in their crappy currency; belt and road will help that. Good luck to 'em.

You're right though, people think its trendy to hate on the US and pander to China because you know, fu** Trump, the West and Capitalism right?

Find it funny the idea of challenging China isn't accepted and can be considered racist while they continue their Uyghur genocide; no SJW's are keen to get around that topic.
The Uyghur thing truly sucks. Unfortunately we cant do sh*t about it, it needs genuine international pressure. Thats non-existent however

right now the USA action has been triggered by HK, not Xinjiang. Call me cynical, but I think because its muslims. just like the situation in Myanmar (and the stern finger waggle the nobel peace prize winner gets), its gets ignored in the EU and north amercia because noone gives a sh*t.
 

Ok Boomer

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I didn't have a problem with most of what was said today. Personally I think the relationship has been permanently damaged and there is a stain on the Chinese name here that wasn't around 3 years ago. I doubt the Chinese will ever need or ever want to bend over backwards to fix it. Some of it is also Australia's fault, especially with the idiotic call for the independent investigation (which the Chinese rightly perceived as a Chinese lynching exercise), something only an Abbott or Morrison government would be stupid and arrogant enough to do.
 

Number37

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...and the implications for our future if they ever achieve full superpower status.

You don't think that China is currently a superpower?

If they weren't they wouldn't be building military fortresses in the middle of the South China Sea on land which they've just unilaterally claimed as theirs.
 

Total_Juddshanks

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You don't think that China is currently a superpower?

If they weren't they wouldn't be building military fortresses in the middle of the South China Sea on land which they've just unilaterally claimed as theirs.
It really depends how you define it- militarily, they don't yet have a capacity to project power globally the way the US or the old Soviet Union could, they don't have a bloc of reliable allies or diplomatic weight, really the only area they probably do approach superpower status is in terms of the economic sway they hold around the world. They are trying very hard to accumulate the other marks of a superpower, they just aren't there yet (and hopefully won't get there.)
 

chunkylover53

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You don't think that China is currently a superpower?

If they weren't they wouldn't be building military fortresses in the middle of the South China Sea on land which they've just unilaterally claimed as theirs.
they're not the superpower.

their military equipment isn't comparable to something like the US. most of the military are made up of malnourished farmers which represent most of their population.

they don't have the allies yet - pending belt/road that could change.

they're not the heavyweight on trade, they rely on the US, whom also have what, another $8 trillion GDP than them? not to mention their decreasing population.

they might be one day, but it's a fair way off it seems.
 

Number37

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It really depends how you define it- militarily, they don't yet have a capacity to project power globally the way the US or the old Soviet Union could, they don't have a bloc of reliable allies or diplomatic weight, really the only area they probably do approach superpower status is in terms of the economic sway they hold around the world. They are trying very hard to accumulate the other marks of a superpower, they just aren't there yet (and hopefully won't get there.)
What do you think the military bases in the Sth China Sea are for?
A whole lot of the world's trade passes through that area.
The way they've set up is like the lights that mark an airport runway.
If you look at a world map and zoom in on that area you can clearly see how they've strategically placed themselves.

One of the key things it does is split the US military in half.
If Duterte has his way Diego Garcia is going to be a long long long long way from any other US military assets.

They've already got most of the Pacific wrapped up.
The very second that Abbott came in and cut aid in our local area, the Chinese stepped in.
In less than a decade they've got almost the entire Pacific under their thumb.
 

HairyO

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You don't think that China is currently a superpower?

If they weren't they wouldn't be building military fortresses in the middle of the South China Sea on land which they've just unilaterally claimed as theirs.
If China was a super power they wouldnt be pushing around Australia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
 

Geelong_Sicko

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If China was a super power they wouldnt be pushing around Australia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Ha! The Japanese, the French, the U.S and her allies, the Khmer Rouge-run Kampucheans and of course China herself have all tried pushing Vietnam around. It's never really worked in any permanent sense.
 

Total_Juddshanks

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What do you think the military bases in the Sth China Sea are for?
A whole lot of the world's trade passes through that area.
The way they've set up is like the lights that mark an airport runway.
If you look at a world map and zoom in on that area you can clearly see how they've strategically placed themselves.

One of the key things it does is split the US military in half.
If Duterte has his way Diego Garcia is going to be a long long long long way from any other US military assets.

They've already got most of the Pacific wrapped up.
The very second that Abbott came in and cut aid in our local area, the Chinese stepped in.
In less than a decade they've got almost the entire Pacific under their thumb.
Look, I accept the South China Sea is a strategically important location and they are taking steps to try and control it.. but as of 2020, they can't do anything other than b*tch and moan when the US sends carrier groups through there, and the only reason they've even been able to take the steps they've taken is because its a sea immediately south of China.

You put them next to the US when it comes to global military strength, and at this point its not remotely a competition. What they are doing is trying to build a military which could inflict politically unacceptably heavy losses on the US to deter them from fighting but they are a long way away from being able to project military power around the planet the way the US can.

And the the main reason they aren't going to, eg, start trying to sink american ships transiting the South China sea is because as of 2020, the US could absolutely wreck China's military and economy if it wanted to do so, solely with conventional weapons - hell, if an american president woke up tomorrow and decided he wanted to obliterate the National People's Congress in Beijing, all it would take is a phonecall and a flight of B2 bombers.

I'm not understating the scope of their ambitions or their capacity to transition into a genuine superpower in time. but at the moment they are far weaker than they pretend to be, and the best way to deal with them is to confront them head on and expose them for the paper tiger they are.
 

CD Xbow

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they're not the superpower.

their military equipment isn't comparable to something like the US. most of the military are made up of malnourished farmers which represent most of their population.

they don't have the allies yet - pending belt/road that could change.

they're not the heavyweight on trade, they rely on the US, whom also have what, another $8 trillion GDP than them? not to mention their decreasing population.

they might be one day, but it's a fair way off it seems.
Globally, the PRC can't compete with the range of US military power but in the Indo-pacific they are about at parity with US forces. In terms of anti-ship missiles the PRC vastly exceed the US in numbers and range. A US carrier fleet is not thought be be survivable within about 1000k of the Chinese mainland should conflict arise.

While the quality of the equipment is unknown, it is probably OK, more issues are related to people and systems, which are even less tested.

Unfortunately all this may encourage the PRC to seek conflict as President Xi is riding the tiger of ultranationalism and they have also built a lot of new military toys. Toys tend to get used. A military friend of mine describes the PLA is like a bayonet, when they push and met mush, they'll keep pushing, if they hit steel they stop.

It's doubtful they will develop strong allies like the US has. A 21C version of the middle kingdom is more likely, with neighbours becoming vassal states and paying tribute.
.... and the the main reason they aren't going to, eg, start trying to sink american ships transiting the South China sea is because as of 2020, the US could absolutely wreck China's military and economy if it wanted to do so, solely with conventional weapons - hell, if an american president woke up tomorrow and decided he wanted to obliterate the National People's Congress in Beijing, all it would take is a phonecall and a flight of B2 bombers.
I don't think this would be the view of most military commentators. Without resorting to nukes I don't believe this is possible. See point above re carrier group.
The Uyghur thing truly sucks. Unfortunately we cant do sh*t about it, it needs genuine international pressure. Thats non-existent however

right now the USA action has been triggered by HK, not Xinjiang. Call me cynical, but I think because its muslims. just like the situation in Myanmar (and the stern finger waggle the nobel peace prize winner gets), its gets ignored in the EU and north amercia because noone gives a sh*t.
Agree. I expect if they were Christians the response in the West would be different. Worst is they have been sold out by their Muslim brothers and sisters around the world because of PRC money - from last year https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/which-countries-are-for-or-against-chinas-xinjiang-policies/ I can think of a couple of countries who would change sides if this were done today.

I don't think it's all doom and gloom. I think the PRC have overplayed their hand. Too many countries recognise their belligerence for what it is. Countries are looking at sovereign control of supplies, new strategic alignments are developing eg India moving closer to the US, formation of the 'Quad MkII' - longish read here https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/d...s-change-of-heart-and-the-future-of-the-quad/ The important point is an economic one, as military power ultimately depends on economic power:

"The Quad represents not just a quarter of the world’s population (1.8 billion people) but a little over a quarter of the world’s economic activity [GDP]. A quarter of all global foreign direct investment flows (averaging over $380 billion a year) come from Quad countries. And by 2018, the Quad held a foreign direct investment stock of $8.7 trillion — or roughly one dollar for every four dollars ever invested abroad."

We will have to see if the Quad gets legs. Lastly, I find it hard to take seriously a superpower that's scared of Winnie the Poo.

Added- PRC fired 2 antiship ballistic missiles (?DF21D, DF 26) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...r-killer-missile-warning-200827011000716.html after a US spy plane intruded into a no fly zone. Note - I'm not sure the DF 21 or 26 have actually hit moving targets in tests despite claims in the Global Times. I wonder how much is deception, in line with Sun Tzu thoughts:

To fight and conquer in all our battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.
 
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Admiral Byng

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The argument whether China is a fully fledged superpower or not is a bit moot. Fact is they are far stronger than any other country bordering upon the South China Sea. The big issue in the South China Sea and these bloody islands is the oil reserves they supposed to contain. China want to seize them all for themselves with their ridiculous claims of sovereignty extending over the whole area and not just a sensible EEZ like everybody else. The rest of the world's navies need to keep up a constant stream of traffic through the area rather than implicitly accept China's claims.

The issue of blockading the SSC and cutting off world trade is not such a big deal. Sure, other countries use it, but only because it is the shortest route. There are alternative routes around the east of the Philippines, through the gap between that and West Papua, and down around Borneo or Sulawesi, and thence on to the Straits of Malacca. It is a further distance sure, but only a couple of days sailing. It will slightly disrupt but not block sea traffic. Much more serious is that China can be cut off from Arab state oil supplies by other nations closing the Straits of Malacca or by India controlling the approach from SoM to Indian ocean via the Andaman Islands. So China are dealt a losing hand there.

As an interesting side note, expect more eyes to fall upon the gap between West Papua and the Philippines. There might be a bit of a scramble for points of control of this waterway. Local independence movements looking for autonomy from Indonesia might become a proxy for major powers conflicts.
 

King Elvis

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Any commentary on the immense overfishing by the (semi-militaralised) China fishing fleets?

They are decimating fish stocks all over the ocean, to the point where many are now thought to be beyond saving.
 

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