I see his very worst case as finished in 2017 with no extension and having finished clearing out the old guys for the next coach. He did okay when he had the cattle in 2011. Since then he hasn't really had the cattle except in 2013 until Simpson got injured then it was over.
It takes 5-6 years to really build a list and his contract ends 6 years after making the most of bombers list. His plan is to base a team around Selwood, hawkins and Taylor. To do this he needs to fix the list imbalance of mostly oldies and kids. If the post season goes as what is being predicted Dangerfield, Selwood, Henderson and a ruckman in, 6-7 out comprising of oldies, chronically injured, no hopers like Blease and the already departed in Hartman. Than the currently imbalanced list has been patched majorly. A strong 2016 will see a contract extension to see what he can do with his list. A poor 2016 will result in a lot of pressure for 2017. Following a poor 2016, a poor 2017 will result in a new coach, which would be 7 years of Scott not exactly knee jerk reaction stuff.
His future relies majorly on this trade period. If we fail to get our targets we get worse over the next 2 years instead of improving and he goes.