In fairness he's worth more then pick #31, but Richmond don't have a pick in the low 20's to reach a happy medium.
He isn't worth pick #12 - just because they value him there doesn't make it so in reality. If Carlton won't take the 2nd round pick that's fine. They can have him in the VFL for a whole year or have him not playing at all and watch his value plummet further.
Even though he's contracted, in this situation Richmond is undoubtedly in the stronger position as Carlton's main card (refusing to trade and keeping him for another year) will hurt them just as much as accepting what they deem to be a below par offer. The fact that Yarran's come out and said he wants to play for Richmond puts us in an even stronger position as no other club will offer anything to try and get him, thereby giving Carlton no other offer to leverage against us.
Say a deal doesn't get done and Yarran plays no senior football next year before hitting FA. What do you think the AFL's compensation pick will be for a guy who hasn't even strung 2 solid season's of football together? Probably lower then the 2nd round pick Richmond are currently offering.
For these reasons I think Carlton will wait until the last minute possible then accept Richmond's current offer. There's absolutely no reason for us to offer anything more. If Cartlon want to play their main card and shoot themselves in the foot that's fine, we can just get him a year later as a FA.