Draft Expert Chris25's 2021 Young Talent Time

[Thunderstruck]

JHF has been in his own tier for a long time. He's the best player in this draft and in 15 years time that won't change. I've mentioned this before many months ago that he's the best Under 18 kid I've seen come up since Hodge and Judd in 2001 and maybe Rowell also in his year. I'm not shying from that.

Daicos is tremendous and would be duly in his own if it wasn't for someone like JHF. He's also better than a lot of the pick 1's we've seen in the last 20 years.

I agree with you on Darcy, when I put my rankings out you will see a similar position

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I just can't shake this feeling that Goater ends up playing off half back. I don't think he has a natural forward game.

I can't comment on how good he is forward, but he has spoken about struggling with being dropped into half-back at the U16 champs after playing mainly forward as a junior, and only really feeling comfortable in the role late this season.

 

[theGav56]

How does Johnson sit in the discussion re Knevitt and Goater?

He seems less explosive but better skilled.

Does he have forward capacity, or capacity to play other positions?

 

[Chris25]

Disagree on the second one, I feel like Goater's floor is using his athleticism off either flank to make an impact while also spending time as a point of difference midfielder. As you mentioned with Knevitt he tested really well but other than using his height well I haven't really seen him use his athleticism in a game. I may be in the minority but I don't really have any concerns around Goater's kicking long term and I see more scope for him being a more damaging player compared to Knevitt.

They're damaging in two very different ways.

If he realises his potential, Goater will make the highlight reel more often. But similarly if Knevitt realises his potential, he could be dominant with his strength and tackling. I just think with a full Victorian season, Knevitt would have climbed ahead.

I agree with you on Darcy, when I put my rankings out you will see a similar position

Yeah ranking Darcy lower than others isn't a slight on him. I just don't see him as an elite #1 tall. I think he'll be a good #2, which is great for the Bulldogs because they have Ugle-Hagan. And it gives them the option long term to move Naughton back and maybe even trade English. I just think he's more Rory Lobb than Max King.

 

[Chris25]

How does Johnson sit in the discussion re Knevitt and Goater?

He seems less explosive but better skilled.

Does he have forward capacity, or capacity to play other positions?

Johnson is the better overall player. Better skills, more composed, just more natural. Doesn't have Goater's burst or athleticism, or Knevitt's strength in the contested game. He's just a quality player who makes his touches count. You could argue they all have a similar ceiling, but Johnson's floor would be the highest of the three.

In terms of versatility, he's a midfielder. Play him inside or around the packs. A bit like Darcy Tucker, he could play elsewhere and be fine but it wouldn't really be getting the most out of him.

 

[Shack18]

Yeah nah, if the National champs were on North would 100% bid.

Before the NAB league was cancelled it was a 60/40 split with most watchers putting Daicos 1. It would’ve been negligent for North not to bid.

Very presumptuous of you !! You have no idea if north would bid or not

 

[Rusty Beam]

IMO Goater’s main weapon is obviously his explosiveness away from congestion and ability to break the lines with his run.

The main issue however is the the kick at the end of those runs seems horribly subpar. I don’t think he hit a single target when he went on one of those runs during the last VC v VM game. Worst of all he directly turned many of them over straight to the opposition.

It really undermines his whole game.

Sure his kicking from a mark and slow play etc isn’t too bad. But at least in my eyes that’s not the basis on which a club would be picking him so high. And to just assume it is something that can be ironed out in an AFL environment would be a massive risk.

 

[gungho]

Yeah nah, if the National champs were on North would 100% bid.

Before the NAB league was cancelled it was a 60/40 split with most watchers putting Daicos 1. It would’ve been negligent for North not to bid.

Move on mate. He doesn't value "your guy" as much as the "other guy" in the draft. It's an opinion business and he has an opinion.

 

[PyrrhicVic]

Move on mate. He doesn't value "your guy" as much as the "other guy" in the draft. It's an opinion business and he has an opinion.

And I’m just stating my opinion...The fact that he supposedly had Horne in his own tier “all year” is quite ridiculous though. I doubt any scout in Australia would share that opinion.

 

[gungho]

And I’m just stating my opinion...The fact that he supposedly had Horne in his own tier “all year” is quite ridiculous though. I doubt any scout in Australia would share that opinion.

And it coincidently just happens to be that your opinion is biased towards your guy, where as his opinion is as a neutral. We get it.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

IMO Goater’s main weapon is obviously his explosiveness away from congestion and ability to break the lines with his run.

The main issue however is the the kick at the end of those runs seems horribly subpar. I don’t think he hit a single target when he went on one of those runs during the last VC v VM game. Worst of all he directly turned many of them over straight to the opposition.

It really undermines his whole game.

Sure his kicking from a mark and slow play etc isn’t too bad. But at least in my eyes that’s not the basis on which a club would be picking him so high. And to just assume it is something that can be ironed out in an AFL environment would be a massive risk.

Does he kick like Dylan Clarke?

 

[eDPS]

Does he kick like Dylan Clarke?

God no

 

[Bastyy]

And I’m just stating my opinion...The fact that he supposedly had Horne in his own tier “all year” is quite ridiculous though. I doubt any scout in Australia would share that opinion.

I don't think you realise how much an opinion on a player can differ per scout, even the top of the line picks like Daicos, Horne etc

 

[Rusty Beam]

Does he kick like Dylan Clarke?

Can’t say I really know Dylan Clarke’s kicking ability. Sounds like there are some scars there as a supporter though .

Who know maybe it’s a lot of fuss about nothing.

Maybe he does become a decent/good kick on the burst similar to someone like Crisp for us… at the moment I reckon he looks more Jasper Pittard’esque.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Before the advent of points per pick, there wasn't this much dissention among footy fans with regards to discussing F/S and AC players.

 

[Chris25]

After taking on Goater yesterday, I was tempted to really draw the ire of BigFooty and go after Erasmus today. But I like him too much. So I'll go positive instead and look at a couple of guys I think are being underrated at the moment...

First up is Charlie Molan, 187cm and 86kg from Vic Country. He's just not the type of player that amateur draft watchers are too interested in. He isn't flashy, he isn't going to win any games single handed. But if you're a recruiter with your job on the line, Molan is as safe a pick as you could make and I wouldn't be surprised to see him off the board in the second round. He's a bit like a couple of Richmond guys in Kamdyn McIntosh

33

Kamdyn Mcintosh

Age

30

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

13.8

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.2

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

18.6

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

6.0

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

and Nick Vlastuin

1

Nick Vlastuin

Age

30

Ht

187cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.7

4star

MG

269.3

4star

D

13.3

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

3star

MG

257.6

4star

D

20.2

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

8.8

5star

M

7.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

. Really solid player, can fill a number of roles. And then next thing you know, he's played 150 games. I can see him quickly finding a home in a back pocket before eventually moving a bit further up the field.

And staying in the back half, Bryce Watson the 183cm and 70kg defender from WA. He has the speed and agility to be a damaging half back, but also has the ability to play taller and reads the play well. I think at the top level he'll have to become a more defensive focused player, one with the game to hurt his direct opponent if they aren't chasing. I think he's comparable to a guy like Sean Lemmens

23

Sean Lemmens

Age

29

Ht

184cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.9

4star

MG

165.2

3star

D

10.5

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.5

2star

MG

213.5

3star

D

12.8

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

, and while that may sound underwhelming, he's managed to play over 100 games in a team that churns through high draft picks.

 

[PMBangers]

After taking on Goater yesterday, I was tempted to really draw the ire of BigFooty and go after Erasmus today

Callaghan, Ward or Rachele would get some bites I reckon

 

[Chris25]

Callaghan, Ward or Rachele would get some bites I reckon

Or I could just keep calling Daicos the second best player in the draft.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

After taking on Goater yesterday, I was tempted to really draw the ire of BigFooty and go after Erasmus today. But I like him too much. So I'll go positive instead...

As much as we should keep in mind that these are children who aren't being handsomely rewarded for having their characters (or kicking, whatever) assassinated on the internet, there's definitely a place for discussion of their limitations. It's a healthy counterweight to the overblown assessments framing high picks as certainties and comparing even sketchy prospects to Brownlow medallists that are all too common.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Interesting you don't have Mitch Owens in your top 50, where some others have him ranked in the top 20.

 

[PyrrhicVic]

Or I could just keep calling Daicos the second best player in the draft.

Couldn't handle one comment on it? Odds are neither Horne or Daicos will be the best player from the draft, you've constructed some weird victim complex in your mind lol.

 

[Chris25]

As much as we should keep in mind that these are children who aren't being handsomely rewarded for having their characters (or kicking, whatever) assassinated on the internet, there's definitely a place for discussion of their limitations. It's a healthy counterweight to the overblown assessments framing high picks as certainties and comparing even sketchy prospects to Brownlow medallists that are all too common.

Every player not named Jason Horne-Francis has weaknesses. Being overtly positive about everyone just does them a disservice and makes the criticism worse when the majority inevitably don’t make it in a few years time.

Interesting you don't have Mitch Owens in your top 50, where some others have him ranked in the top 20.

I’ll be honest, I thought Owens was there. But I’ll own it and claim it was on purpose nonetheless…

If I was to update, I’d probably put him in around 40ish. Would have been a really interesting one to watch if we had a full season.

 

[PMBangers]

Couldn't handle one comment on it? Odds are neither Horne or Daicos will be the best player from the draft, you've constructed some weird victim complex in your mind lol.

Do you think this late into the year you're the first to mention it?

 

[PyrrhicVic]

Every player not named Jason Horne-Francis has weaknesses.

Lol come on, I can't really take you seriously. Have you even watched some of the champs games or the NAB Academy? He can go missing and struggles to find the footy at times, shocking take.

 

[PMBangers]

Lol come on, I can't really take you seriously. Have you even watched some of the champs games or the NAB Academy? He can go missing and struggles to find the footy at times, shocking take.

Nah you got me man, haven't watch Daicos this year