List Mgmt. Christmas comes early (Nov 28 - 19 sleeps) - Draftee discussion
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Overall, it's pretty decent. Could be a bit better, but I wouldn't complain with this.
The wily weagle
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I am still hoping Buslinger is selected before our first pick to take the metaphorical bullets out of the Piemans gun
No possible chance he passes on a tall backman if he is still on the board
No possible chance he passes on a tall backman if he is still on the board
My prediction (putting my ROB hat on):
8. Busslinger - Need moar KP defenders!
12. Jefferson - JK gone, Darling aint getting any younger. Williams x 2 as next in line is a worry.
20. Barnett - Need to start planning for post-NN
26. Jones/Clarke - Rioli gone. Cripps getting on. Petch can't string 3 games together. Need a small forward asap.
Gives Culley, Chesser and Hough 12 months to grow into the midfield (can only fit that many developing mids into the side) and then we stock up on more mids in 2023.
8. Busslinger - Need moar KP defenders!
12. Jefferson - JK gone, Darling aint getting any younger. Williams x 2 as next in line is a worry.
20. Barnett - Need to start planning for post-NN
26. Jones/Clarke - Rioli gone. Cripps getting on. Petch can't string 3 games together. Need a small forward asap.
Gives Culley, Chesser and Hough 12 months to grow into the midfield (can only fit that many developing mids into the side) and then we stock up on more mids in 2023.
I think i hate you.....
When was the last time we took a tall backman inside the first round (even inside the first 30-35 picks) in a draft?
Brander maybe, but whilst he may have played a little back time in his underage years it would seem it was almost the only position we didn't try him in during his time at the club! Outside of that, most of our key backs are taken in the mid-stages of the draft (we're going back to Darren Glass etc to look for a early KPD pick).
That looks like the bottom out strategy, you'd need to nail the early picks next year.
3 out of the 4 picks make sense... but as a collective it is obviously terrible.
For all of the ROB bashing we do around here, one of the things he does well is taking a balanced hand at the draft. Of course that can lead to other issues (like reaching for a certain type, because we don't want to take the best available in the 20's when we have just taken 1-2 of that style of player earlier) - but generally he does get a balance of types when given 3-4 picks to use.
I can't see us taking Busslinger and Jefferson. (unless one gets through to 20). We know we are stacked for KPD talent, and that Bazzo may be able to move forward if required. We also know we are in the sweet spot of the draft for mids or mid/fwd's - both our picks in that range. so definitely see a chance we take either Buss or Jefferson - but would say that both are very unlikely at 8 + 12.
Keys
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Swap Hewett (or another mid hopefully not named Allan) for Jefferson -
A) That may well be pretty close to what we do end up with and
B) It isn’t that bad a draft. Not ideal because I’d prefer only one tall from our first 4 picks but it isn’t a disaster
How does that get covered in the "soft cap"?
Keys
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Gossage butchering another interview, this time with Rueben Ginbey, for anyone interested
player.whooshkaa.com
Scotty & Goss - Reuben Ginbey (08/11/22)
AFL 2022 Draft Prospect & East Perth young gun, Reuben Ginbey, joined Scott Cummings & Tim Gossage to discuss how he's preparing for the Draft on November 28.
player.whooshkaa.com
Interesting, as an aside the much maligned (on here) Swans Academy is a user (kids and parents pay fees and purchase all gear) pays programme that returns a significant profit to the Swans so it would not impact the soft cap. Good management I guess. Compare and contrast with WC?
Why the F would we organise an academy to develop players for the general draft pool? If we had guaranteed access like Sydney then I'm sure we'd be all over it. Sydney also gets more AFL cash distribution than us, so it can be argued that the AFL still pays for it indirectly.
We pay millions each year to the WAFL as licence fees/royalties. That's our contribution to development in the state.
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I'll go against the grain here and say I would be happy with that outcome as long as we miss on Jones and end up with Clarke. I don't think Jones will make it as a midfielder or as a small forward.
The above draft, plus last year's, would lock away our talls with the need then to focus then on midfielders and flankers with future drafts.
That said, I hope we go midfielders with 8 and 12 as it's a more pressing need.
Carbine Chaos
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I'd say mixed.
I'm not a big Humphrey fan based on his foot skills.
I really like Jones, but would prefer him at 20. He may not make it that far tbf.
Hewett is a great get at our third. I'm in the minority who thinks he may realistically slide there.
Hustwaite's descriptions give me Kyle Langford vibes, I'd rather we avoid.
I think one issue to consider is what would the club expect to pick up in the 2023 draft?
If we stock up on mids this year, and next year there's some star mids available, are we likely to have too many mids that can't be squeezed into the squad (Culley, Hough, Chesser + 3x2022 draftees + 2 2023 draftees = 8 mids within a 3 year age difference)? Do this years mids stack up to the quality of 2023, or are we drafting the midfield support cast this year? If so, get the talls as per my post and don't bother with drafting support cast with our early picks.
If we take a tall this year, with Barrass, Bazzo & Hedwards down back already, I'd prefer Jefferson over Busslinger tbh.
If we stock up on mids this year, and next year there's some star mids available, are we likely to have too many mids that can't be squeezed into the squad (Culley, Hough, Chesser + 3x2022 draftees + 2 2023 draftees = 8 mids within a 3 year age difference)? Do this years mids stack up to the quality of 2023, or are we drafting the midfield support cast this year? If so, get the talls as per my post and don't bother with drafting support cast with our early picks.
If we take a tall this year, with Barrass, Bazzo & Hedwards down back already, I'd prefer Jefferson over Busslinger tbh.
Spank2304
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I'm not too sure but i have heard others say that next years draft is better for talls. Certainly Curtin who will prob be WA's best player in next years draft would be someone the eagles would be hoping to snag.
Hough and Chesser can play HBF if needed. Culley can play a little HFF if needed also (he's more set-position as an inside mid though).
We need to take at least a couple of mids this draft, as we really don't have much developing outside of those 3. Worst case scenario if we can't get a KPF in 2023 or 2024 is we trade for one - we have depth in KPD's. Ruck an issue also, but I'd guess at worst we can get one of a ruck or KPF through the next 2 drafts.
I think we just draft the best players we can this year - rather than focusing too much on needs (especially early - at 26 it may be more needs-based). We lack quality almost everywhere.
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Drafting a couple of talls this year and next year will not unbalance our squad unduly. Talls also take longer to develop.
As such drafting talls this year will not prevent us drafting talls next year.
If you play 6 genuine talls out of 22 on game day (which is pretty standard), then you should have 11 genuine talls on your list out of 42 players (not counting Cat B's). That still leaves 31 spots on the list for smaller players, of which only 16 can play each week.
I think people that want us to draft all mids are thinking too short term.
As such drafting talls this year will not prevent us drafting talls next year.
If you play 6 genuine talls out of 22 on game day (which is pretty standard), then you should have 11 genuine talls on your list out of 42 players (not counting Cat B's). That still leaves 31 spots on the list for smaller players, of which only 16 can play each week.
I think people that want us to draft all mids are thinking too short term.
I don't think anyone wants us to draft all mids, but are keen on mids with first 2 picks (or if we go with The Bus, then mids with 2 out of our first 3 picks).
I didnt suggest the WC would or should. But generating significant income, bonding/loyalty and an insight into the AFL potential of 1000's of developing kids through professional staff (Leon Cameron Leads the Swans Academy) isn't a dumb move. The Swans open the academy to all juniors and then they progressively cull the numbers.
This was a response to a suggestion by another that the Cats mentor juniors to develop a loyalty link that impacts drafting.
The Swans do the same thing but on an industrial scale.
WC pay good money to support community causes, the Swans make good money through wide scale tallent identification and indoctrination. Compare and contrast?
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Brander played CHB for Beagles in his first year
The biggest issue is that WA has a strong colts system and a schools scholarship that develops kids, how would an eagles academy function with that? Sydney doesn't have anything like that.
In divisions - ranked on merit. Dosn't equate to the old WAFL structure. All Divisions fall under teh AFL. The AFL has been heavily into Sydney private schools for ober 40 years. But Soccer is now by far the biggest code there.
Under 19s Division One is the second highest ranked AFL Sydney competition (after First Grade Premier Division and is prioritised as such for umpires , venues ect) and suited to players looking to transition into the Premier Division.
The Division Two competition is for the developing footballer or one who plays for the social aspect of the sport. All clubs participating in this competition field senior teams in either Platinum Division or the lower Divisionalised Football.
I think the point is that their Academy looks at kids as they enter high school which is where other codes are looking - the identificatiion is done and dusted well before the U 19 level.
At pick 8, what 7 players do I expect to be off the board before we pick? I am ignoring Ashcroft.
Based on the current clubs retaining their picks, here is how I see it going
The 6 definite players that I predict will be gone before our pick are
The 4 possibly gone are
=> meaning 3 of Tsatas, Phillipou, Ginbey and Busslinger are likely to be there for us at 8.
Who might want to jump up before 8 and who would they take?
A club trading up to get one of my "definite 6" players makes not difference so no need to speculate. Effect is the same.
What players might warrant jumping up for?
Phillipou, Tsatas, Busslinger and Humphries are the 4 players I can see that offer enough points of difference.
Who has the currency? Without selling a future R1, I see it as limited to the two Sydney teams and the Doggies with 11 and 21.
I can see GWS and Sydney wanting Humphries. Tsatas is also a possibility for both clubs.
What would Sydney get for 14 and 17? Not enough for Essendon at 4. I can't see Hawks missing out on Mackenzie. Likewise Cats on Clark. Gold Coast would be ill advised to run the risk of sliding back to get Hollands as I rank him at the 10 to 15 mark and 14 becomes risky. So I cannot see Sydney getting in before us.
What about GWS. They hold picks 15, 18 and 19. Would Essendon take 15, 18, 19 and 31 for 4, 22 and a future R3? That would enable them at least 2 (and possibly 3) picks prior to a bid on Davey. Holding the picks that might be bid on Davey is also comforting. I cannot see Sydney bidding on Davey and Pies are the only club in that cluster that could upset the plan.
Doggies - I believe they will let the draft come to them.
In terms of Busslinger, Hayes as a later KPD will e a great second choice so not likely see any club ready to pay a high premium.
I can see a world where Carlton might be prepared to sell out of R1 and take a future R1. That might be in a team like Melbourne in at 10 (so after our first pick).
That all leads me to think that the manoeuvring on draft night is going to be fun to watch. I expect there will be a slider for us at 8 and we might be challenged with a decent offer.
What would you prefer?
Let the draft come to us and hold with
8 - Ginbey
12 - Hewett
20 - Barnett
26 - Clarke
Deal with Sydney
12 - Hewett
14 - Hollands
17 - Hotton
20 - Barnett
Based on the current clubs retaining their picks, here is how I see it going
- Cadman is a lock for GWS
- Wardlaw likewise for Norf
- Norf have a choice between Tstatas and Sheezel - I expect they go Sheezel but without confidence
- Dons are next - they could go the balance of Sheezel or Tsatas, they could go Busslinger, Ginbey or Phillipou
- Gold Coast could play cute but the more I think about it, the more Hollands is the obvious answer. It locks away 2 brothers who will happily be together at a club that find it hard to keep players. Forget Ginbey - they have Rowell and Miller. Forget Busslinger - the have ample talls and 2 more top end talls from the academy next year. It is early but it really should be Hollands. Lock it in Eddy.
- Hawks are going hard for Mackenzie, with Clark as a fall back
- Cats likely to go Clark and if gone, may go Busslinger or Mackenzie
The 6 definite players that I predict will be gone before our pick are
- Cadman
- Wadlaw
- Sheezel
- Hollands
- Mackenzie
- Clark
The 4 possibly gone are
- Tsatas
- Phillipou
- Ginbey
- Busslinger
=> meaning 3 of Tsatas, Phillipou, Ginbey and Busslinger are likely to be there for us at 8.
Who might want to jump up before 8 and who would they take?
A club trading up to get one of my "definite 6" players makes not difference so no need to speculate. Effect is the same.
What players might warrant jumping up for?
Phillipou, Tsatas, Busslinger and Humphries are the 4 players I can see that offer enough points of difference.
Who has the currency? Without selling a future R1, I see it as limited to the two Sydney teams and the Doggies with 11 and 21.
I can see GWS and Sydney wanting Humphries. Tsatas is also a possibility for both clubs.
What would Sydney get for 14 and 17? Not enough for Essendon at 4. I can't see Hawks missing out on Mackenzie. Likewise Cats on Clark. Gold Coast would be ill advised to run the risk of sliding back to get Hollands as I rank him at the 10 to 15 mark and 14 becomes risky. So I cannot see Sydney getting in before us.
What about GWS. They hold picks 15, 18 and 19. Would Essendon take 15, 18, 19 and 31 for 4, 22 and a future R3? That would enable them at least 2 (and possibly 3) picks prior to a bid on Davey. Holding the picks that might be bid on Davey is also comforting. I cannot see Sydney bidding on Davey and Pies are the only club in that cluster that could upset the plan.
Doggies - I believe they will let the draft come to them.
In terms of Busslinger, Hayes as a later KPD will e a great second choice so not likely see any club ready to pay a high premium.
I can see a world where Carlton might be prepared to sell out of R1 and take a future R1. That might be in a team like Melbourne in at 10 (so after our first pick).
That all leads me to think that the manoeuvring on draft night is going to be fun to watch. I expect there will be a slider for us at 8 and we might be challenged with a decent offer.
What would you prefer?
Let the draft come to us and hold with
8 - Ginbey
12 - Hewett
20 - Barnett
26 - Clarke
Deal with Sydney
12 - Hewett
14 - Hollands
17 - Hotton
20 - Barnett
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