Christopher Judd

[Faz 2000]

Judd's pre-season SC scores: 83, 77, 52

Worrying? Or misleading?

Misleading. Judd has had 0.0 reason to turn it on in preseason. When he has, he's looked great.

 

[Spartan]

I've always said- if he spends the pre-season in his former West-Coast-outside role- Then he's a lock.

If he is staying with his groin-grabbingly-Carlton-inside role, then he's no chance...

Who's going to win the hard ball in the Carlton midfield? Gibbs? Stevens?

Misleading. Judd has had 0.0 reason to turn it on in preseason. When he has, he's looked great.

I don't subscribe to the theory that players play a game half arsed. Most people that have played competitive spot realise that when you're on the field you play hard. You don't grab the ball and say 'ok i'll just run at 50% this time' or 'nah i wont go for that hard ball'.

Judd IS still a gun. However he isn't the player he was at West Coast, both because of the different styles of the two clubs and the fact that like it or not his groin injury has slowed him down.

He might still rack up the points, however nothing during the pre-season has suggested to me he will be the 130+ppg player he was at WCE.

 

[hellfire]

Last year he averaged almost 110 after an interrupted pre-season and the change in role in a team that finished 10th (?)

This year Carlton will push for top 4 and he's had a full pre-season. Will he drop in value early? Maybe, maybe not. But I'm having him in my side from the get go, because he's a consistent, proven performer who is capable of huge scores. I don't see the appeal in waiting til he drop 40-50k and wasting a trade, when I want him in there anyway.

 

[Spartan]

Last year he averaged almost 110 after an interrupted pre-season and the change in role in a team that finished 10th (?)

This year Carlton will push for top 4 and he's had a full pre-season. Will he drop in value early? Maybe, maybe not. But I'm having him in my side from the get go, because he's a consistent, proven performer who is capable of huge scores. I don't see the appeal in waiting til he drop 40-50k and wasting a trade, when I want him in there anyway.

Sigh.

Why is it a waste of a trade? Do you have 6 keepers in the midfield and you're wasting a trade to get him in?

Carlton will push for top 4 on the back of further improvement from their second and third tier players as well as Judd.

I keep hearing about his first full pre-season... he's had 3 pre-season games which have been good without being great.. and please dont tell me he hasnt been trying.

There are much better options to start the season with imo.

Having said that who knows.. i might end up sneaking him in.

 

[hellfire]

Sigh.

Why is it a waste of a trade? Do you have 6 keepers in the midfield and you're wasting a trade to get him in?

Carlton will push for top 4 on the back of further improvement from their second and third tier players as well as Judd.

I keep hearing about his first full pre-season... he's had 3 pre-season games which have been good without being great.. and please dont tell me he hasnt been trying.

There are much better options to start the season with imo.

Having said that who knows.. i might end up sneaking him in.

I see it as a waste of a trade because I want him in the side now. I think if he has a price drop it won't be enough to justify a trade. Players like Franklin and Ablett I'm going to wait for, because I think Franklin's first 5-6 games will be sub-par because of his interrupted pre-season and his record against those teams, and Ablett has far less room to move than Judd does, being 118k more, and I think he will drop enough at some stage to justify a trade.

It is personal opinion, stop "sighing" when someone disagrees. Nobody knows what will happen.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Given that you would have used that trade on a different keeper anyway though, it isn't a waste of a trade, it's only a waste of the maybe $50-100k extra value you might get from someone else. Wasting occurs when predictable injuries or under-performance force sideways trading.

 

[hellfire]

Given that you would have used that trade on a different keeper anyway though, it isn't a waste of a trade, it's only a waste of the maybe $50-100k extra value you might get from someone else.

Or perhaps I've considered the fact that other premium midfielders will have a slower start to the year, and/or will drop more in value.

 

[Walesy]

It is personal opinion, stop "sighing" when someone disagrees. Nobody knows what will happen.

I do.

That's why I've already borrowed against the equity in the 50k I'm gunna win...

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Or perhaps I've considered the fact that other premium midfielders will have a slower start to the year, and/or will drop more in value.

That's great. You still aren't wasting a trade bringing Judd in. The only conceivable way to spin it is you'll need an extra cash cow cycle to afford him over someone cheaper, but that's tenuous at best.

 

[Spartan]

I see it as a waste of a trade because I want him in the side now. I think if he has a price drop it won't be enough to justify a trade. Players like Franklin and Ablett I'm going to wait for, because I think Franklin's first 5-6 games will be sub-par because of his interrupted pre-season and his record against those teams, and Ablett has far less room to move than Judd does, being 118k more, and I think he will drop enough at some stage to justify a trade.

It is personal opinion, stop "sighing" when someone disagrees. Nobody knows what will happen.

I wasn't sighing at your disagreement.

I sighed at the statement 'i don't want to waste a trade getting player x' because its becoming somewhat of a rhetoric of this board.

But for what its worth, i'll sigh whenever the **** i want.

Its still not a waste of a trade because at the time you bring Judd in you would have (most likely) brought in another premium anyway.

IF Judd drops then its a smart move as he would have (most likely) brought in less points than he is worth at that point. So it then comes down to if you believe he will bring in less points than his market value.

Given the number of premium midfielders available to select from i doubt you'll have to look too hard to find those that will have a decent start to the year and maintain it.

Edit: Ablett has been averaging close to or above his break even to maintain his price. Given that scores in the normal games are expected to be higher than those in the pre-season games (due to game time, etc) I think Ablett has displayed the likelihood to hold his value greater than Judd.

 

[hellfire]

But for what its worth, i'll sigh whenever the **** i want.

"I do what I want, this is the interweb".

*Sigh*

Its still not a waste of a trade because at the time you bring Judd in you would have (most likely) brought in another premium anyway.

IF Judd drops then its a smart move as he would have (most likely) brought in less points than he is worth at that point. So it then comes down to if you believe he will bring in less points than his market value.

Given the number of premium midfielders available to select from i doubt you'll have to look too hard to find those that will have a decent start to the year and maintain it.

Edit: Ablett has been averaging close to or above his break even to maintain his price. Given that scores in the normal games are expected to be higher than those in the pre-season games (due to game time, etc) I think Ablett has displayed the likelihood to hold his value greater than Judd.

I don't base my opinion on pre-season matches when it comes to guys like Ablett and Judd. Pre-season is a decent barometer for unproven players trying to put their hand-up and show their worth.

And to put it simply: I don't think Judd is going to fall much. I do think other gun midfielders will fall more than Judd. I do think it is wasting a trade on getting Judd if my prediction is correct, because that trade would be better spent getting one of those I think will fall more.

 

[razor1]

But for what its worth, i'll sigh whenever the **** i want.

Sigh.

 

[Spartan]

This year Carlton will push for top 4 and he's had a full pre-season. Will he drop in value early? Maybe, maybe not. But I'm having him in my side from the get go, because he's a consistent, proven performer who is capable of huge scores. I don't see the appeal in waiting til he drop 40-50k and wasting a trade, when I want him in there anyway.

And to put it simply: I don't think Judd is going to fall much. I do think other gun midfielders will fall more than Judd. I do think it is wasting a trade on getting Judd if my prediction is correct, because that trade would be better spent getting one of those I think will fall more.

First of all you indicated (first quote) that if he dropped 40-50k it is still wasting a trade. Bzzzt, wrong answer. You tried to backpedal in the second quote, however the end result was still the same.

Ignoring that, lets say your prediction of Judd dropping less than another premium is 'correct'. Thats still not a waste of a trade. You would still be using that trade to bring in the player that dropped less. So you would be losing (or you could use the word wasting) value but you would not be wasting a trade.

Don't mess with me, i'm tough (and more importantly correct ). I'll even post a pic of myself (see below).

 

[Judd_Magic]

if[/I] my prediction is correct, because that trade would be better spent getting one of those I think will fall more.

Enter Cooney!

 

[inwhiterooms]

Agree with Spartan but both having Judd starting the season and choosing not to start with him have their positives and negatives.

The positive is that if he was to start the season slowly as Spartan suggested then yes, you will be able to buy at a discount price. On the other side of the coin you have to factor in at what cost it will take to get him. Bringing him in when the time is right may force you to have to sell a cow a month or so earlier than you'd to, thus missing out on their maximum price increase/the possibilty of them becoming a keeper, allowing you to save trades.

You just need to weigh up what it may cost and what cows/mid-pricers you've got around to turn into the player you're thinking of buying. I'm in a very similar situation at the moment in my backline.

In summary, there's really no right or wrong.

 

[Spartan]

The only conceivable scenario that Judd wastes a trade is if he gets to $700k plus and it takes you more than 2 trades to bring him in.

Having said that if it takes you three trades then you will have a decent amount of cash surplus (assuming your cash cows aren't duds) hence you will only need another 1 trade to bring in your next premium, hence costing you 4 trades for 2 premiums (as expected and as is the norm).

Not having Judd is not a waste of a trade.

The defence rests your honour.

 

[hellfire]

First of all you indicated (first quote) that if he dropped 40-50k it is still wasting a trade. Bzzzt, wrong answer. You tried to backpedal in the second quote, however the end result was still the same.

Ignoring that, lets say your prediction of Judd dropping less than another premium is 'correct'. Thats still not a waste of a trade. You would still be using that trade to bring in the player that dropped less. So you would be losing (or you could use the word wasting) value but you would not be wasting a trade.

Don't mess with me, i'm tough (and more importantly correct ). I'll even post a pic of myself (see below).

It's wasting a trade based on what I believe will happen. If what I believe does not eventuate, then it would NOT be wasting a trade. How hard is it for you to grasp there are other opinions than your own? It's your opinion that it WON'T be a waste of a trade based on your predictions of performance. It's my opinion that it will be based on my predictions of performance. That's it, that's the end of it.

And there is no "bzzzt, wrong answer". I clearly stated I felt EVEN IF Judd falls 40k, others will fall further (IMO), making it a waste getting Judd and not the others (because more money can be made with the others if I'm right).

But by all means, continue thinking everything you say is right. It doesn't really bother me, I have more important things to worry about than Chris Judd starting the year well.

 

[Spartan]

It's wasting a trade based on what I believe will happen. If what I believe does not eventuate, then it would NOT be wasting a trade. How hard is it for you to grasp there are other opinions than your own? It's your opinion that it WON'T be a waste of a trade based on your predictions of performance. It's my opinion that it will be based on my predictions of performance. That's it, that's the end of it.

And there is no "bzzzt, wrong answer". I clearly stated I felt EVEN IF Judd falls 40k, others will fall further (IMO), making it a waste getting Judd and not the others (because more money can be made with the others if I'm right).

But by all means, continue thinking everything you say is right. It doesn't really bother me, I have more important things to worry about than Chris Judd starting the year well.

Of course people have different opinions. One could even argue that an opinion by definition cannot be right or wrong.

You're missing the fundemental point of the arguement though.

You are not wasting a trade in any of the potential scenarios. You may be gaining or losing value, however you will not be wasting a trade.

Is that really a hard concept to grasp?

 

[hellfire]

Of course people have different opinions. One could even argue that an opinion by definition cannot be right or wrong.

You're missing the fundemental point of the arguement though.

You are not wasting a trade in any of the potential scenarios. You may be gaining or losing value, however you will not be wasting a trade.

Is that really a hard concept to grasp?

Given that you've been harping on about value, it is difficult to grasp.

If you're strictly talking about "wasting a trade", then no, it won't be wasted. And I don't care. I'm annoyed that I've got things to do for uni and I'm sitting here talking absolute shit about something so irrelevant.

Of all the things I could be doing, I'm sitting on here talking about supercoach. I'm going to have a beer, and then do some of my assignment, and then go fishing or something... sigh.

 

[Spartan]

Given that you've been harping on about value, it is difficult to grasp.

If you're strictly talking about "wasting a trade", then no, it won't be wasted. And I don't care. I'm annoyed that I've got things to do for uni and I'm sitting here talking absolute shit about something so irrelevant.

Of all the things I could be doing, I'm sitting on here talking about supercoach. I'm going to have a beer, and then do some of my assignment, and then go fishing or something... sigh.

Mate getting worked up over SC is pointless.

I'm feeling arguementative (and bored) so i decided to argue the point.

Glad we've come to an agreement.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Seems m0nty doesnt think Judds worthy either..

Chris Judd
Yes, Chris Judd again. He is still over-rated for fantasy. His groin problems are chronic, they’re never going to go away. He will never be the player he once was, scooting away from packs that have been knocked over for him by the Eagles’ muscle men. The Blues play a different style, more selfish and less accountable, which fails to include setting up their entire clearance game around the Magenius. He should not be bought at all in Dream Team, and he is a risk few should be taking in Super Coach. Yet many of you keep buying him year after year, hoping the old Juddy will somehow return. Wake up and smell 2009!
I’m sure you will want to argue over your favourites, especially you Juddites out there. Juddite rhymes with Luddite!

Hmm, it has been noted that while Monty does some great things, and there's no doubting his general football knowledge, his application to fantasy is lacking, and not sure how many of you newer guys know he was kicked out of EDT?

I think Monty tends to overanalyze things which is generall his downfall. I'm not too sure what his "year after year" comment about Judd is even referring to? In 2006 he averaged 130+ and 2007 he was a completely legitimate pickup as noone could have foreseen his groin injury.

Last year was probably the only year where getting Chris Judd would have been questionable. So really, if you ask me it's a pile of crap that I honestly thought would have been researched a lot better by someone like Monty.

 

[IDIG]

This was a great thread back in the day so thought i'd give it a bump. Now the question for 2010 is he capable of keeping up his early season form? I know alot of people are very keen to move on him (me included) but there's plenty of value out there with Swan, Hayes, NDS, Pendles all discounted or to be discounted in the coming weeks so is the great man worth his full price tag? I'll attempt to do some number crunching on what we can expect.

Priced at $589,000 with an average of 148, his breakeven is 70 (TS) and is up against Collingwood, St Kilda, Port and Hawks over the next 4 rounds. Over his last 5 games against these teams he averages the following -
Collingwood - Ave 115
St Kilda - Ave 89
Port - Ave 108
Hawthorn - Ave 131

It's worth noting his last 2 games have been against Adelaide and Geelong. Adelaide being his third worst opponent over the years and Geelong with one of the best taggers in the game (although he did go h2h with Selwood early).

The most obvious reason i can see that he is scoring so well is that after 2 games he is averaging 114 in dt, 20 more than last year and pretty much every other year of his career. No doubt he is an SC machine but DT wise he's never been anything more than average.

Having a look at his starts to previous seasons, he also tends to start well.

2008 - 660/6 games - 110 ave
2009 - 695/6 games - 115 ave
2010 - 296/2 games - 148 ave

So i guess if the numbers don't lie, he's worth every cent BUT don't be surprised if over the next few weeks his numbers come back down to earth. Collingwood tend to leak midfield points but then he faces Jones, Kornes and probably Sewell. Me personally, i'm still undecided.

 

[Skystyler]

Collingwood tend to leak midfield points but then he faces Jones, Kornes and probably Sewell. Me personally, i'm still undecided.

Keep in mind that Wellingham has been a very good stopper so far this year. Held Jobe Watson to a below par score on the weekend.

 

[deadoralive]

Keep in mind that Wellingham has been a very good stopper so far this year. Held Jobe Watson to a below par score on the weekend.

you're comparing chris judd to jobe watson????

there is no comparison between them, besides watson does not have midfield depth to help....

 

[Sunday Red]

Check out this Chris Judd & rookie cash cow analysis I just saw on Twitter: http://www.authoritysports.com.au/?p=251

It's a delicate balance on when to harvest cash cows to bring the superstar in to your side. Food for thought.