Civil war in Ukraine?

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Strike call fuels Ukraine tension

Yushchenko supporters say the vote has been rigged
Ukraine's opposition is stepping up its campaign to overturn the disputed presidential poll, launching a general strike to try to paralyse the country.
Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko called for the stoppage after election officials declared Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner.

Both sides earlier warned of a civil conflict, as thousands of people continue to protest in Kiev.

The US has said it "cannot accept" Sunday's poll result as legitimate.


DISPUTED ELECTION

Official result:
Yanukovych (left): 49.46%
Yushchenko: 46.61%
Western observers report:
Abuse of state resources and "overt media bias" in favour of Mr Yanukovych
State workers pressured to give absentee voting certificate to their superiors
Intimidation reported at some polling stations
Suspiciously high turnout in two pro-government regions


Monitors criticise poll

Outgoing Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma - who backs Mr Yanukovych - called on world leaders not to interfere, warning that civil war "could well become a reality at the present time".

In a bid to calm the tense situation, the European Union and Poland have sent envoys to Kiev.

Ukraine's crisis is also set to dominate an EU-Russia summit at The Hague later on Thursday, after the two sides reacted to the election results with marked contrast.

The EU voiced dismay over the result, which is widely believed to have been rigged, while Russian President Vladimir Putin moved swiftly to congratulate Mr Yanukovych before later retracting his words.

Thousands of opposition supporters braved the cold in a fourth night of protests in the capital, Kiev.


It is time for Ukrainian leaders to decide whether they are on the side of democracy or not

Colin Powell


Powell statement

A number of pro-government supporters were also visible in the city for the first time in Wednesday, though eastern Ukraine saw pro-government rallies earlier in the week.

Riot police have been on stand-by since the demonstrations began but there have been no reports of violence.

Ukraine's Central Electoral Commission on Wednesday declared Mr Yanukovych as president, saying he had won 49.46% of the vote against Mr Yushchenko's 46.61%.

However, several exit polls immediately after Sunday's voting suggested that Mr Yushchenko had a clear lead.

Shutting down Ukraine

The pro-Western Mr Yushchenko immediately rejected the commission's declaration as the "latest crime" of the Ukrainian authorities.


Pro-Yanukovych MPs celebrated the electoral commission's ruling

He warned a vast crowd of supporters in Kiev's central Independence Square that Ukraine was now on the brink of a "civil conflict".

"With this decision, they want to put us on our knees," he told the crowd, which chanted: "Shame! Shame!"

The nationwide strike aims to shut factories, shops and schools and paralyse Ukraine's major transportation arteries.

Some analysts say the planned stoppage could further divide the country. Mr Yushchenko draws his support mainly from the predominantly Ukrainian-speaking western and central regions, while Mr Yanukovych's strength comes from the Russian-speaking heavily industrialised east.

The opposition is also planning to challenge the official result in the supreme court on Thursday.

Mr Yanukovych - who is backed by Russia - on Wednesday offered to hold talks with Mr Yushchenko.

"We must improve our lives and we will do it together - all of our citizens and myself as president of Ukraine," he said in a brief appearance on state television.

But the opposition camp said Mr Yushchenko would only negotiate with Mr Kuchma.

Washington's warning

In Washington, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Ukraine was at a "critical moment" and had to decide whether it was on the side of democracy.


Ukrainians give their views on where the country is heading


In pictures


Mr Powell warned the government in Kiev of "consequences" for the US-Ukraine relationship.

But he added: "It's still not too late to find a solution which respects the will of the people."

The new head of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, also warned Ukraine there could be "consequences" for its relations with the European Union, unless there was a serious and independent review.

Western election observers and the Ukrainian opposition have reported thousands of voting irregularities, including a near 100% turnout in some pro-government strongholds.

Earlier, Mr Yushchenko said he was prepared to have a re-run of the vote if it was carried out by "honest" officials.

Is there oil in Ukraine?, I know it is regarded as the 'bread basket' of the old USSR, it seems Putin has his grubby hands in there as well, what are ppl's thoughts on this potential flashpoint?.
 

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Ukraine has relatively minor oil reserves, not enough for it's own needs, so that won't play a factor. While it has more substantial gas reserves, this is unlikely to change world reation much either. While it as been bullish in it's economy recently, it's starting from a pretty low base and is no economy powerhouse. Even so, economically the incumbent government appears to be doing the right thing, so the issue of despots plundering a nations wealth appears not be valid.

Religion fundmentalism appears not be an issue. While this is a tragedy for the people of Ukraine, I doubt it would lead to civil war. I just don't think the opposition is motivated enough to actually put their lives at risk. Probably their best hope would be a mass non-violent protest as in the Phillipines. From the limited coverage I have seen the goverment hasn't come down hard on peaceful protest.
 

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Seems to be a major power play behind the scenes by Russia/Putin and the west (EU/USA). I wouldn't trust Putin any further than I could kick him. Ukraine plays a strategic geopolitical and economic role even though their economy is rather shabby... a lot of Russian energy to Europe passes through Ukraine, and it has the potential to be a major player in Europe. I'd actually consider buying property there if I knew they were going to join the EU.

There is significant interest from Russian interests in Yushchenko not winning the election, as he has stated he will investigate corruption related to energy contracts among other things. He would probably also have the evidence to link Kuchma (current President) with political disappearances. From what I have read it sounds that there may be a possibility of a divide between eastern and western Ukraine.

For more coverage of the fallout from the election, and current issues in Belarus, check out:

http://charter97.org/eng/news/
 

utility

Norm Smith Medallist
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3rdEchelon said:
Is there any small chance that the opposition party were to into their candidate winning that they refuse to accept that the governing party actually won fairly?
Possibly, but it flies in the face of exit polls which are basically never that far wrong. Are you also aware that Yushchenko was hospitalised for over a month due to food poisoning after accepting an invitation to dine with Yanukovich? And are you aware of the events surrounding the recent referendum and elections in Belarus?

People in these parts don't give up power too easily.
 

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utility said:
Possibly, but it flies in the face of exit polls which are basically never that far wrong. Are you also aware that Yushchenko was hospitalised for over a month due to food poisoning after accepting an invitation to dine with Yanukovich? And are you aware of the events surrounding the recent referendum and elections in Belarus?

People in these parts don't give up power too easily.
I am actually aware of this, as my listening of BBC actually has paid some dividends. It's just that with me, everytime a group protests like this, i always think that they might be refusing what could be a legitimate win. For the record, i too think it's very suss.
 
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