Current Claremont Murders Discussion & Edwards trial updates pt2

[Kurve]

Here is Claremont Murders - Part One
- Media
- The Bunker
- Hey Bret ...? Unexplained trial mysteries & CSK Supreme Court cliffhangers

 

[Sepai]

I would imagine the blue fibres came from the car and not from him wearing them at the time. This would explain why more blue fibres on CG than JR, the car was older then so more fibres.
I agree lots of Telstra uniforms, but how many of the men that wore them have plead guilty to an abduction and rape in the same area 11 months prior to the first murder?
I actually disagree that the prosecution has a thin case if the DNA is discredited (which at this stage it hasnt been anyway). I think that once the fibre evidence is presented, it will show that JR and CG were both in a VS wagon that contained fibres that were entirely consistent with telstra navy shorts and pants. We are talking about not just grey and blue fibres, but 4 different types of grey fibres and 2 different types of blue fibres. These fibres were consistent across 4 different areas: KK, JR, CG and the recovered VS. If they all match better than any other fibres tested against, he is screwed.
The VS fibres found on JR and CG we know were tested against control fibres taken from the actual VS recovered. They will match.
The blue rayon fibres found on CG were tested against the blue rayon telstra shorts, They will match.
The blue polyester fibres located on KK, JR and CG were tested against the telstra pants. They will match.
Scientists arent stupid...they would have excluded other sources of the fibres.
Yovich, I think, will have a much harder time trying to prove fibre contamination than he had raising contamination of DNA. Its probably why he needs a week off to consider the prosecution response to the defense fibre reports. His own reports may not have been all that favourable.

If your familiar with Perth's pedigree convicting high profile crimes it's not great. There's a recent one I'd rather not mention. Perth Mint swindle. Convictions overturned in 2004. Mallard wrongfully convicted of a murder he didn't commit. We will see what happens.

 

[Sepai]

If we had a witness who could state with 100% surety that he or she could identify BRE talking to CG, we may not have needed a trial

You would still need a trial. You could say the same about the forensics if there that strong. Everyone gets their day in court. Witnesses are gold.

 

[kingswood71]

You would still need a trial. You could say the same about the forensics if there that strong. Everyone gets their day in court. Witnesses are gold.

What I meant was that if there was a witness, he may have plead guilty.
But there isnt, so the hypothetical is irrelevant...

 

[JezzaPerth]

You would still need a trial. You could say the same about the forensics if there that strong. Everyone gets their day in court. Witnesses are gold.

Witnesses are often wrong - either lying or mistaken or both.

I sat through the witnesses for Ciara Glennon in Claremont. They all had different stories and conflicting details. About all that could be taken was Ciara Glennon was probably on Stirling Highway in Claremont a bit after midnight - and that was the last she was seen alive.

 

[Sepai]

What I meant was that if there was a witness, he may have plead guilty.
But there isnt, so the hypothetical is irrelevant...

I'm only replying to your comment. Hopefully the fibre evidence help the prosecution.

 

[Sepai]

Witnesses are often wrong - either lying or mistaken or both.

I sat through the witnesses for Ciara Glennon in Claremont. They all had different stories and conflicting details. About all that could be taken was Ciara Glennon was probably on Stirling Highway in Claremont a bit after midnight - and that was the last she was seen alive.

Nobody could identify BRE. It would be different if someone could have. We rely on DNA evidence.

 

[Kurve]

The 6 matching alleles, if its all been reported correctly!, on the JR intimate swab is interesting.

How far could they get phenotyping with these six? (Thought I saw seven somewhere)

 

[Sepai]

I haven't been to the CSK trial. I know there are people on here that go regularly. I wonder how accurate some of the media coverage is?

 

[JWS2019]

Just checking in and reading all the posts some really good discussion here! And you all have justified why the court process lengthy and detailed as it is, will make it easier for Hall to decide.

Maybe we should send Hall a list of pros and cons To date!

 

[kingswood71]

How far could they get phenotyping with these six? (Thought I saw seven somewhere)

I think they didnt get far....just that 6 alleles matched his, so cant exclude but cant include.
It would be handy to know what alleles matched as then we could calculate the probablity of the DNA been his. Given that Carmel hasnt said it is likely his, then its probably not the "best" match anyway.
I dont know enough about what alleles of the 6 were there and matched his alleles, to draw to many conclusions, except that its significant that 6 of his alleles matched, even if it was only one of those "the chances of this dna coming from someone else is 1:200" type matches. That to me will still be significant, given he is on multiple murder charges and a good DNA match was found on another victim.
I hope that makes sense

 

[kingswood71]

I'm only replying to your comment. Hopefully the fibre evidence help the prosecution.

And I was replying to yours, where you used the hypothetical "t strengthens the case if you have a witnesses that can identify BRE talking to CG"

 

[Kurve]

I think they didnt get far....just that 6 alleles matched his, so cant exclude but cant include.
It would be handy to know what alleles matched as then we could calculate the probablity of the DNA been his. Given that Carmel hasnt said it is likely his, then its probably not the "best" match anyway.
I dont know enough about what alleles of the 6 were there and matched his alleles, to draw to many conclusions, except that its significant that 6 of his alleles matched, even if it was only one of those "the chances of this dna coming from someone else is 1:200" type matches. That to me will still be significant, given he is on multiple murder charges and a good DNA match was found on another victim.
I hope that makes sense

It does, thanks. I'm doing some casual study but it hasn't all slotted into place yet and wouldn't dare try to pretend with the little knowledge I have that I'm across it.

I'd love to see phenotyping on the full profile they took from KK to see how close it is.

 

[kingswood71]

It does, thanks. I'm doing some casual study but it hasn't all slotted into place yet and wouldn't dare try to pretend with the little knowledge I have that I'm across it.

I'd love to see phenotyping on the full profile they took from KK to see how close it is.

JezzaPerth was there that day (I think), he may recall what they said about the matching BRE Alleles on that test.
My own questions would be: Were they single alleles at 6 different loci? Were some paired alleles at some loci? Which loci matched his?
The last question would help to figure out probablity as the allele frequency should be known. So, if we knew which alleles matched at which loci, we could calculate the actual probability match.
"The court has heard testing an intimate swab taken from Jane Rimmer found a very low level mixed profile.
Mr McDonald the profile was only found on the first run. Three were carried out on this extract.
The court heard one profile was female and matched Jane, while a Y-chromosome was found indicating the other profile was male.
The court then heard that six alleles matched those of Mr Edwards.
When asked if he was able to exclude Mr Edwards completely from this mixed profile, Mr McDonald said: "Completely, no."
He added: "You would expect a certain number of people in the population to share a certain number of alleles like Mr Edwards."

Which is all well and good, except a "certain number of people in a population" aren't on trial for 3 murders and their DNA wasnt already found on one victim, only one is!!
If all that has been blogged accurately (wishful thinking I suppose!), then why didnt Hall or the prosecution ask "You cant exclude him completely, but what is the probability that the DNA in this mixed male sample was actually his?"

 

[Sepai]

And I was replying to yours, where you used the hypothetical "t strengthens the case if you have a witnesses that can identify BRE talking to CG"

We all make assumptions and hypothetical comments. You said we wouldn't need a trial if we had a 100% witness. That's hypothetical. Then you added BRE might have pleaded guilty. Another hypothetical. Nothing wrong with assumptions or hypothetical s. Justice Hall will have the final say.

 

[JezzaPerth]

JezzaPerth was there that day (I think), he may recall what they said about the matching BRE Alleles on that test.
My own questions would be: Were they single alleles at 6 different loci? Were some paired alleles at some loci? Which loci matched his?

The KK profile was a full match to the BRE profile using at least three different tests - Profiler Plus, Y-STR, and whatever the Poms used.
I'm not allowed to take notes and my memory is not that good. I saw that BRE had a couple of paired alleles but I can't remember which.

In the partial profiles they didn't say specifically which alleles were matches to BRE. That info would have been on the electropherogram but it was too small on the screen to read. The press could have noted that down but it hasn't made its way to any reports. There is also the problem of privacy. They aren't allowed to publish any DNA profiles from victims at least, and probably any lab staff and police, and possibly not even from BRE.

 

[the dark knight]

Even if there was a witness to seeing BRE talk to CG. The defence may still plead not guilty. Too many variables. Person's memory, eye sight, Mental health, general medical condition and history. That’s just the tip of the iceberg regarding discrediting a witness.

 

[Sepai]

Even if there was a witness to seeing BRE talk to CG. The defence may still plead not guilty. Too many variables. Person's memory, eye sight, Mental health, general medical condition and history. That’s just the tip of the iceberg regarding discrediting a witness.

At night three guys eating burgers after a session on the booze wouldn't be that reliable. Driving past and looking into a car doing 50 to 60 Kilometers would be doubtful. A man was seen at Dean Street. Solid build about 6 feet tall. Dark hair with olive complexion standing outside his vehicle. That was witnessed by a lady driving towards Perth. She must have had a keen eye. She couldn't confirm if it was BRE. The Taskforce approached her two years later with a picture of their then number one suspect. Today a lot of cars are fitted with cameras. To be reliable you would need more than one eyewitness or camera footage. You make a good point.

 

[kingswood71]

The KK profile was a full match to the BRE profile using at least three different tests - Profiler Plus, Y-STR, and whatever the Poms used.
I'm not allowed to take notes and my memory is not that good. I saw that BRE had a couple of paired alleles but I can't remember which.

In the partial profiles they didn't say specifically which alleles were matches to BRE. That info would have been on the electropherogram but it was too small on the screen to read. The press could have noted that down but it hasn't made its way to any reports. There is also the problem of privacy. They aren't allowed to publish any DNA profiles from victims at least, and probably any lab staff and police, and possibly not even from BRE.

Thats a shame.
They did state "The remaining peak at D22 of '14', matched Mr Edwards' profile"....so sometimes they have reported bits and pieces of the actual DNA matches.
Pity they just cant release the EPG's .....Might turn up in Carmel's book one day

 

[the dark knight]

At night three guys eating burgers after a session on the booze wouldn't be that reliable. Driving past and looking into a car doing 50 to 60 Kilometers would be doubtful. A man was seen at Dean Street. Solid build about 6 feet tall. Dark hair with olive complexion standing outside his vehicle. That was witnessed by a lady driving towards Perth. She must have had a keen eye. She couldn't confirm if it was BRE. The Taskforce approached her two years later with a picture of their then number one suspect. Today a lot of cars are fitted with cameras. To be reliable you would need more than one eyewitness or camera footage. You make a good point.

Occasionally I do

 

[sprockets]

How far could they get phenotyping with these six? (Thought I saw seven somewhere)

I think they didnt get far....just that 6 alleles matched his, so cant exclude but cant include.
It would be handy to know what alleles matched as then we could calculate the probablity of the DNA been his. Given that Carmel hasnt said it is likely his, then its probably not the "best" match anyway.
I dont know enough about what alleles of the 6 were there and matched his alleles, to draw to many conclusions, except that its significant that 6 of his alleles matched, even if it was only one of those "the chances of this dna coming from someone else is 1:200" type matches. That to me will still be significant, given he is on multiple murder charges and a good DNA match was found on another victim.
I hope that makes sense

Carmel can't say they're his because it's not a full (therefore legal) match. You can't make any conclusions about individual alleles (genes). The only thing you can say is that there are 6 alleles in the sample and he has each of them and (probably) nobody else they've tested (anywhere) has all of the 6. It also doesn't matter which 6 they are, we all have the same genome, ie, we all have a gene/s for eye colour and we all have genes that that give us a nose in the middle of our face, it's just that they're (sometimes) slightly different to each other.

 

[Kurve]

It also doesn't matter which 6 they are, we all have the same genome, ie, we all have a gene/s for eye colour and we all have genes that that give us a nose in the middle of our face, it's just that they're slightly different to each other.

Is it not the alleles responsible for the expression of traits ie eye colour?

 

[JezzaPerth]

Is it not the alleles responsible for the expression of traits ie eye colour?

The Short Tandem Repeat (STR) Alleles are tiny fragments of DNA consiting of a repeated pattern of DNA between two well-known other bits of DNA. The alleles don't specifically code for anything. They are sort of junk DNA that varies between individuals in the number of times the short fragments of DNA are repeated.

 

[sprockets]

Is it not the alleles responsible for the expression of traits ie eye colour?

The Short Tandem Repeat (STR) Alleles are tiny fragments of dna consiting of a repeated pattern of DNA between two well-known other bits of DNA. The alleles don't specifically code for anything. They are sort of junk DNA that varies between individuals in the number of times the short fragments of DNA are repeated.

Alleles are genes. Your genes give you your genotype and phenotype. Different alleles of the same gene will express themselves differently in your phenotype (how you look, inside and out).

EDIT: Your genes are responsible for every physical thing you're born with, pretty much.

 

[kingswood71]

Carmel can't say they're his because it's not a full (therefore legal) match. You can't make any conclusions about individual alleles (genes). The only thing you can say is that there are 6 alleles in the sample and he has each of them and (probably) nobody else they've tested (anywhere) has all of the 6. It also doesn't matter which 6 they are, we all have the same genome, ie, we all have a gene/s for eye colour and we all have genes that that give us a nose in the middle of our face, it's just that they're (sometimes) slightly different to each other.

I am aware of that....but from a forensic perspective they are interested in the specific parts of the allele in the non-coding region. The micro-satellite (STR) region. We know (roughly) how many different STR's there are for different alleles at different loci in different populations. Thats how we can actually make probability or likely-hood statistical statements about who may have contributed to crime scene DNA evidence. EDIT: To use an example. They mentioned that BRE DNA is 14 at D22. I assume they mean D22S1045. This means that his STR at this loci is a 14bp repeat. We know that in a caucasian population the allele frequency for 14 at D22S1045 is 0.058.
We all do have a gene for eye colour, but our micro-satellite regions may well completely differ, even if our eye colour is the same.

 

[kingswood71]

Alleles are genes. Your genes give you your genotype and phenotype. Different alleles of the same gene will express themselves differently in your phenotype (how you look, inside and out).

EDIT: Your genes are responsible for every physical thing you're born with, pretty much.

Yes I agree. But forensics does not look at the coding part of the allele, they look at the non-coding repeating parts of an allele!!