Analysis Clarko in 2019 “We’re a middle of the road team”

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HODGEYROAD

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Edited the post to add:

In total, that's:
1 x top 10 - pick 6
2 x top 20 - pick 6, 13
4 x top 30 - pick 6, 13, 29, 29
5 x top 40 - pick 6, 13, 29, 29, 35
7 x top 50 - pick 6, 13, 29, 29, 35, 45, 47

Only seven top 50 picks in a five year period.
Remarkable win you think we had 9 top 25 selections over 2004 and 2005. That's why I hate it when people try and compare this period to that period and our rise to 2008.
 

Strapping Young Lad

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2023 is optimistic, but the better run clubs tend to bounce back quicker than the Norths, Melbournes and Carltons.

Port have shown how some bold moves can pay dividends within a relatively short period. A lot has to go right.
Looking at 2023 in the aftermath of the Geelong, Richmond and Melbourne games may have been a different sell because we competed so well and 2023 from where we are right now at round 8 looks very optimistic, but how will 2023 look when Day, Gunston, JOM and Sic are back in the side and in form, CJ, Imp and Scrim have continued to lift, Denver, Seamus and Connor are firing at Box Hill, Worps and Tom are in unison, Kosi and Jeka are 20 games into their careers, Brockman has kicked 20 goals in 10 games and our 2021 Picks 2 or 3, plus 21 and 22 are shining in their Box Hill outings? It’s not out of the question.

We have large chunks of a very good team already out there, but we are also missing crucial parts(star pacey onballer, dangerous small forward, precision wingman), and we’re not exactly in form or full of confidence which darkens everything as well.

A competing outfit in 2023 looks pretty optimistic, but it’s achievable with some confidence, some run and dare, a few additions, some further development of the youngsters and of course a fit list.
 

Judd2Sewell

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2016
Pick 74 (5th rounder) - Harry Morrison
Pick 76 (5th rounder) - Mitchell Lewis

Rookie pick 14 - Oli Hanrahan
Rookie pick 31 - Jack Fitzmagic
Rookie pick 46 - James Cousins

2017
Pick 45 (3rd rounder) - James Worpel
Pick 67 (4th rounder) - Dylan Moore
Pick 71 (5th rounder) - Jackson Ross

Rookie pick 7 - Harry Jones
Rookie pick 23 - David Mirra
Rookie pick 34 - Dallas Willsmore

Cat-B rookie - CJ

2018
Pick 52 (3rd rounder) - Jacob Kosi
Pick 64 (4th rounder) - Matt Walker

Rookie pick 14 - Damon Greaves
Rookie pick 30 - Will Golds
Rookie pick 42 - Tim Mohr
Rookie pick 49 - Will Langford

2019
Pick 13 (1st rounder) - Will Day
Pick 29 (2nd rounder) - Finn Maginness
Pick 57 (4th rounder) - Josh Morris

Rookie pick 9 - Emerson Jeka

Cat-B rookie - Harry Pepper

2020
Pick 6 (1st rounder) - DGB
Pick 29 (2nd rounder) - Seamus Mitchell
Pick 35 (2nd rounder) - Connor Downie
Pick 47 (3rd rounder) - Tyler Brockman

Rookie pick 4 - Jack Saunders

---------------------------------------

Since 2016 (5 drafts) we have had:
2x first rounders - 2019, 2020
3x second rounders - 2019, 2020 (x2)
3x third rounders - 2017, 2018, 2020
3x fourth rounders - 2017, 2017, 2019
3x fifth rounders - 2016 (x2), 2017

In total, that's:
1 x top 10 - pick 6
2 x top 20 - pick 6, 13
4 x top 30 - pick 6, 13, 29, 29
5 x top 40 - pick 6, 13, 29, 29, 35
7 x top 50 - pick 6, 13, 29, 29, 35, 45, 47

Only seven top 50 picks in a five year period. Only five top 40 picks. That's averaging one top 40 pick per season.

---------------------------------------

I think with the selections we have had we have done quite well - relative to where the picks were made and if we hit on the 2019 and 2020 picks (also relative their draft positions) then we will have done exceptionally well.

We can't even claim that we have had any "busts" given the players that are no longer on the list were all late picks, rookies and/or injured.

But the real problem is we have had only five picks in total in the first two rounds over the last five seasons. That's where the biggest problem lies. That's where people have issues with the rebuild.

We just haven't brought in elite talent, and the elite top-end talent we have brought in was done so over the last two years so we haven't had a chance to see them (hopefully) flourish.

It's good to have our fourth and fifth rounders, and rookies, turn into decent role players (Morrison, Moore, etc), but what we really need are those elite players to come through and help elevate them.

For me - looking at those names gives me confidence that the 2019 and 2020 draftees will prove their worth.

Edit: we were relying on the later picks punching right above their respective draft positions. Worpel has definitely done that (first rounder, top 10 in hindsight). Kosi and Lewis may prove to do that. But even if the others all become solid role players it wouldn't be enough. We really need all of Brockman, Lewis, Kosi, Greaves, Jeka and Morris to do it.
Also I realise this long arse post doesn't take into consideration the trades.

That's a whole entire other issue. In hindsight there are some we'd do over - for example what ever we gave up for Impey was worth it, and double again. But there's an argument against the others given our rapid decline.
 

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Jazzfan

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Looking at 2023 in the aftermath of the Geelong, Richmond and Melbourne games may have been a different sell because we competed so well and 2023 from where we are right now at round 8 looks very optimistic, but how will 2023 look when Day, Gunston, JOM and Sic are back in the side and in form, CJ, Imp and Scrim have continued to lift, Denver, Seamus and Connor are firing at Box Hill, Worps and Tom are in unison, Kosi and Jeka are 20 games into their careers, Brockman has kicked 20 goals in 10 games and our 2021 Picks 2 or 3, plus 21 and 22 are shining in their Box Hill outings? It’s not out of the question.

We have large chunks of a very good team already out there, but we are also missing crucial parts(star pacey onballer, dangerous small forward, precision wingman), and we’re not exactly in form or full of confidence which darkens everything as well.

A competing outfit in 2023 looks pretty optimistic, but it’s achievable with some confidence, some run and dare, a few additions, some further development of the youngsters and of course a fit list.
I like certain parts of your post. But honestly, I can't accept that we were competitive against Richmond and Melbourne. That's been the issue for me, we coach for that. Probably because it's a good sell to the fans and wider public, and it isn't as demoralising to the players. But the reality is, we were nowhere in either game. You can't use it to suggest we were competitive, when really, we didn't even try to win it.

Geelong is probably the example of what we are coached for, the rope-a-dope. We almost pulled it off.

Arguments can be made it's been against bottom 8 teams, Essendon, Adelaide and Fremantle, and an out of form Geelong, but we play entirely different when pushing sh*t up hill, when we go away from our game plan, and we actually are enjoyable to watch and have had some success. I'd love us to start with that plan from the first bounce, who cares if we get done by 10 goals every few weeks.

If anyone is looking for an example, you can see how often we played on from a mark in the second half of both the Essendon and Adelaide games, compared to the first.
 
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Strapping Young Lad

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I like certain parts of your post. But honestly, I can't accept that we were competitive against Richmond and Melbourne. That's been the issue for me, we coach for that. Probably because it's a good sell to the fans and wider public, and it isn't as demoralising to the players. But the reality is, we were nowhere in either game. You can't use it to suggest we were competitive, when really, we didn't even try to win it.

Geelong is probably the example of what we are coached for, the rope-a-dope. We almost pulled it off.
If you can’t accept it, that’s on you.

Reality is that a ragtag bunch of players were able to come together, thwart and restrict these much better sides for large parts of the game.
It’s fact that this poor Hawthorn side did that, and that this is exactly what a much better positioned side would aim to do in years to come, but with more counterpunch and scoring.
 

Judd2Sewell

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The Geelong performance was much more impressive than the Richmond, and especially the Melbourne one.

Richmond just cruised thoughout the game. They were not really troubled by us.

QT - 2 to 8 (6 less for the quarter)
HT - 7 to 15 (2 less for the quarter)
3QT - 9 to 17 (even)
FT - 14 to 23 (1 less for the quarter)

Melbourne simply embarrassed us in the last quarter after being in an arm wrestle. At 3QT, when the game was still "close," they had already had five extra scoring shots than us. It was simply a matter of time IMO.
 

The hands of stone

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IMO that can only work if we are aggressive, to get more picks inside the top 10. I don't think simply taking our draft hand in the next two drafts will be enough if we are aiming at being relevant in two years.
Its a mindset and attitude thing .

It means as a club we arent planning on being down too long , yes the rebuild is on but we aim to bounce back and quickly.

Far better then the 5 year plan which is defeatist and can bring complacency .
 

Judd2Sewell

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You can level criticism at selection and take into consideration the overall balance of the side. It is the relentless howl any time a particular player is or isn’t chosen that dominates the KID position. And then when we get belted playing a very inexperienced side and then howling that Clarko has lost the plot because Finn gets dropped and Howe gets a game.

you know I disagree with plenty of selection decisions (two ruck policy as an example).The howling over selection of fringe players is, frankly, embarrassing. Supporters of other clubs would be laughing their arses off at the sh*t people post on here.
Every single group of fans has their posters questioning the continued selection of their fringe players. Venture onto any board and you will see the same thing.

Just replace TOB, Howe and Ceglar with guys - K. Langford, Z. Guthrie, Bews, Magden, C. Brown, Aarts, McIntosh, D. McKay, etc etc etc
 

darthmann

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Every single group of fans has their posters questioning the continued selection of their fringe players. Venture onto any board and you will see the same thing.

Just replace TOB, Howe and Ceglar with guys - K. Langford, Z. Guthrie, Bews, Magden, C. Brown, Aarts, McIntosh, D. McKay, etc etc etc
yeah definitely isn't limited to our board

Langford has been good the past couple years though
 

offtherails9

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We've really lost the concept of context as a species, haven't we? We can only focus on things that we have seen very recently and that completely defines our world view?

Melbourne being held up as the gold standard of list rebuilding I just cannot get my head around. This is the same Melbourne that has been rebuilding their list for so long that their prized #1 picks have started retiring, yeah? That's actually happened and I haven't gone too hard on the LSD and woken up in a parallel universe, yeah? Feel like I have to check.

And this whole "XTZ is closer to their next premiership KDF" nonsense. It's utterly unpredictable!
How many excellent Melbourne teams have there been since the mid 60's? And how many premierships?
Ditto St Kilda
Ditto Bulldogs
Ditto Geelong.
Ditto Collingwood
etc.

Some properly good sides that came up with nada. The flipside of the same coin that was Bulldogs in 2016.

If you sat down in round 8, 2008 and forecast which list was closest to or furthest from their next Premiership, most people would've had the Tigers below the fold. And now they've got 3 and counting.

I know they're "the media" and they've got all this time to fill, so they have to talk about something. But I can't be the only one who remembers things that happened more than a year ago? I guess that's why I don't work in the media.

Some days, this fu**en world man...
I have to laugh at the 'so and so is 18th in the league for being furthest from a flag' or whatever they say. Hello? We're six years from a three peat, Melbourne are 70 years from their last flag lol.
 

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Realist

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I have to laugh at the 'so and so is 18th in the league for being furthest from a flag' or whatever they say. Hello? We're six years from a three peat, Melbourne are 70 years from their last flag lol.
That’s what Melbourne were saying in 1970 and Carlton in 2000 and Essendon in 2006, etc.
Past success does not guarantee future success. 2015 couldn’t look any further away right now.


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Mercy Seat

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Every single group of fans has their posters questioning the continued selection of their fringe players. Venture onto any board and you will see the same thing.

Just replace TOB, Howe and Ceglar with guys - K. Langford, Z. Guthrie, Bews, Magden, C. Brown, Aarts, McIntosh, D. McKay, etc etc etc
That's because it's the lowest hanging fruit supporters can hang their hat on. That and "no plan b"....
 

Roger Rogerson

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Also I realise this long arse post doesn't take into consideration the trades.

That's a whole entire other issue. In hindsight there are some we'd do over - for example what ever we gave up for Impey was worth it, and double again. But there's an argument against the others given our rapid decline.
Yes the player names traded in aren't listed but this draft analysis does show the opportunity cost at the top end of the draft that we missed as a result of our trade strategy.
 

Strapping Young Lad

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Remarkable win you think we had 9 top 25 selections over 2004 and 2005. That's why I hate it when people try and compare this period to that period and our rise to 2008.
We really did need them in 2004-2005 though.

Our best youngsters were 19yr old Hodge and 22 yr old Mitchell, with J.Smith(26), Thompson(26), Lekkas(27), Holland(29), Crawf(29) and Everitt(29) as our topline talent, and Tim Boyle and Doug Scott as our sole key forwards under the age of 26 in development.

In 2021, we have 19yr old Day and 22yr old Worpel, with Mitchell(27), O'Meara(27), Wingard(27), Gunston(29), Bruest(30), Sicily(27), Scrimshaw(22), CJ(21) and Impey(25), with Jeka, Kosi, Lewis and DGB all under 22 years of age and under, on the list developing.

Long story short, we're in a better space list wise as crazy as it seems and aren't needing to draft a FF and CHF.

We need mids, which luckily for us every draft is packed with.
 

Pessimistic

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That’s what Melbourne were saying in 1970 and Carlton in 2000 and Essendon in 2006, etc.
Past success does not guarantee future success. 2015 couldn’t look any further away right now.


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‘well it did take us 18 years to back up the eighties. I was there most weeks
 

Pessimistic

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We really did need them in 2004-2005 though.

Our best youngsters were 19yr old Hodge and 22 yr old Mitchell, with J.Smith(26), Thompson(26), Lekkas(27), Holland(29), Crawf(29) and Everitt(29) as our topline talent, and Tim Boyle and Doug Scott as our sole key forwards under the age of 26 in development.

In 2021, we have 19yr old Day and 22yr old Worpel, with Mitchell(27), O'Meara(27), Wingard(27), Gunston(29), Bruest(30), Sicily(27), Scrimshaw(22), CJ(21) and Impey(25), with Jeka, Kosi, Lewis and DGB all under 22 years of age and under, on the list developing.

Long story short, we're in a better space list wise as crazy as it seems and aren't needing to draft a FF and CHF.

We need mids, which luckily for us every draft is packed with.
I think depth is far better. Whether there’s mitchell hodge brown on board and buddy rough Lewis Birchall coming through is another matter

the less said about thorp and dowler the better, yes we really nailed it
 

cryptor

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We really did need them in 2004-2005 though.

Our best youngsters were 19yr old Hodge and 22 yr old Mitchell, with J.Smith(26), Thompson(26), Lekkas(27), Holland(29), Crawf(29) and Everitt(29) as our topline talent, and Tim Boyle and Doug Scott as our sole key forwards under the age of 26 in development.

In 2021, we have 19yr old Day and 22yr old Worpel, with Mitchell(27), O'Meara(27), Wingard(27), Gunston(29), Bruest(30), Sicily(27), Scrimshaw(22), CJ(21) and Impey(25), with Jeka, Kosi, Lewis and DGB all under 22 years of age and under, on the list developing.

Long story short, we're in a better space list wise as crazy as it seems and aren't needing to draft a FF and CHF.

We need mids, which luckily for us every draft is packed with.
+ the ability to recruit free agents now
 

Jazzfan

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We really did need them in 2004-2005 though.

Our best youngsters were 19yr old Hodge and 22 yr old Mitchell, with J.Smith(26), Thompson(26), Lekkas(27), Holland(29), Crawf(29) and Everitt(29) as our topline talent, and Tim Boyle and Doug Scott as our sole key forwards under the age of 26 in development.

In 2021, we have 19yr old Day and 22yr old Worpel, with Mitchell(27), O'Meara(27), Wingard(27), Gunston(29), Bruest(30), Sicily(27), Scrimshaw(22), CJ(21) and Impey(25), with Jeka, Kosi, Lewis and DGB all under 22 years of age and under, on the list developing.

Long story short, we're in a better space list wise as crazy as it seems and aren't needing to draft a FF and CHF.

We need mids, which luckily for us every draft is packed with.
In 2003 we also had Brad Sewell, Mark Williams, Chance Bateman, Campbell Brown and Michael Osborne.... all very good players who were developing at the time.

We also had Jonathan Hay who was All Australian and Jade Rawlings. Actually, between Hay, Rawlings and Thompson, we got 4 first round picks. We also got a priority pick in 2004 (pick 2, Roughy) and in 2005 (pick 3, Ellis). So that alone is six extra first round picks we used to kick start our rebuild.

I really hope we've sorted FF and CHF as you say, but personally I don't think we can call that yet.... its not like we have a Ben King or Oscar Allen forward... let alone buddy or rough.
 
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Strapping Young Lad

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In 2003 we also had Mark Williams, Chance Bateman, Campbell Brown and Michael Osborne.... all very good players who were developing at the time.

We also had Jonathan Hay who was All Australian and Jade Rawlings.

I really hope we've sorted FF and CHF as you say, but personally I don't think we can call that yet.... its not like we have a Ben King or Oscar Allen forward... let alone buddy or rough.
I didn't say we had FF and CHF sorted, but we have players on the list putting there hand up for those spots. We were almost void of developing talls in 2004 outside of the best 22.

We also have Brockman(Williams), Maginess(Sewell), Reeves, Greaves, Morris(Osborne) and Morrison developing.
 

Judd2Sewell

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We really did need them in 2004-2005 though.

Our best youngsters were 19yr old Hodge and 22 yr old Mitchell, with J.Smith(26), Thompson(26), Lekkas(27), Holland(29), Crawf(29) and Everitt(29) as our topline talent, and Tim Boyle and Doug Scott as our sole key forwards under the age of 26 in development.

In 2021, we have 19yr old Day and 22yr old Worpel, with Mitchell(27), O'Meara(27), Wingard(27), Gunston(29), Bruest(30), Sicily(27), Scrimshaw(22), CJ(21) and Impey(25), with Jeka, Kosi, Lewis and DGB all under 22 years of age and under, on the list developing.

Long story short, we're in a better space list wise as crazy as it seems and aren't needing to draft a FF and CHF.

We need mids, which luckily for us every draft is packed with.
In 2005 we also had:
Trent Croad (25)
Bateman (24)
Osborne (23)
Sewell (23)
Williams (22)
Brown (22)
Ladson (21)
Young (19)

To obviously add to Crawford, Hodge, Mitchell, Franklin, Roughy and Lewis.

In terms of experienced players we also had Lekkas, Everitt, Smith, Jacobs, Barker, Vandenberg and the declining Hay.

Not sure we can say we are in a better position list wise now compared to back then, especially as we were about to add Birchall, and to a lesser extent Ellis and Max Bailey.

Once/if DGB, S Mitchell, Downie, Finn, Morris and Brockman lock down a spots in the team next season we can draw better comparisons.
 
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Hawk_francais

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Looking at 2023 in the aftermath of the Geelong, Richmond and Melbourne games may have been a different sell because we competed so well and 2023 from where we are right now at round 8 looks very optimistic, but how will 2023 look when Day, Gunston, JOM and Sic are back in the side and in form, CJ, Imp and Scrim have continued to lift, Denver, Seamus and Connor are firing at Box Hill, Worps and Tom are in unison, Kosi and Jeka are 20 games into their careers, Brockman has kicked 20 goals in 10 games and our 2021 Picks 2 or 3, plus 21 and 22 are shining in their Box Hill outings? It’s not out of the question.

We have large chunks of a very good team already out there, but we are also missing crucial parts(star pacey onballer, dangerous small forward, precision wingman), and we’re not exactly in form or full of confidence which darkens everything as well.

A competing outfit in 2023 looks pretty optimistic, but it’s achievable with some confidence, some run and dare, a few additions, some further development of the youngsters and of course a fit list.
That’s assuming everything goes right from here, but AFL isn’t played on paper. History says that some of those players will experience injury or stall in their development, and some will leave (an unavoidable consequence of hanging around the wrong end of the ladder).

I’m not trying to be pessimistic, I just look back to 2019 when our best player went down and we didn’t have the depth to cover it. When your senior side and reserves side are both battling, it’s a sure sign that there’s a lack of depth. In terms of building up a full squad that’s strong enough to deal with the road-bumps, we are 3-4 years away at best (when the likes of Scrimshaw, Worpel, Lewis, Day, CJ, DGB, Kosi, Brockman +this year’s draftees are closing in on 100 games). Which puts some question-marks over our gun older players, and what their contribution means for the time being.

That said, in 2017 and 19 we started off poorly and lifted in the second half of the year. I could see that happening again, especially gaining Gunston, DGB and Day. If we end up finishing higher than last year, I’ll change my assessment.
 
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