Analysis Clarko in 2019 “We’re a middle of the road team”

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Strapping Young Lad

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The context of our list at the time was it wasn’t good enough. We ran out of puff in 2016, too many old elite players hitting a wall. Some very good players under them needing to step up. But an absolute lack of young talent ready to step up to the level.
The context of the list at the time was that we still had a very good core of players under 28 who we knew could perform on the biggest stage like Gunston, Smith, Breust, Frawley, Shiels, Puopolo, Birchall, Stratton, Rioli, Schoe, Duryea, Langford.... all them premiership players, with Sicily and Burton developing.
Maybe you’re forgetting we were a game clear on top with only weeks left in the season.

Grabbing Jager and Tom at the end of 2016 with the idea that we would then catapult ourselves straight back into contention and land a free agent like Tom Lynch in the years to come was a very sound strategy at that point in time and I would question anyone who argues that backing in that group of players above to climb the peak again with some new blood was the wrong thing to do.

A fair chunk of the hindsight heroes that want to come along and pretend like we should’ve just cut them all off at the head at 28 because we lost a final by a couple of kicks or that we should have told them we were just going to hit the draft for the next three years and hopefully they might get to see another attempt at a grand final before they all retired, I’m tipping would be made to look like fools if we went back to find their posts at the time.
 

darthmann

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The context of the list at the time was that we still had a very good core of players under 28 who we knew could perform on the biggest stage like Gunston, Smith, Breust, Frawley, Shiels, Puopolo, Birchall, Stratton, Rioli, Schoe, Duryea, Langford.... all them premiership players, with Sicily and Burton developing.
Maybe you’re forgetting we were a game clear on top with only weeks left in the season.

Grabbing Jager and Tom at the end of 2016 with the idea that we would then catapult ourselves straight back into contention and land a free agent like Tom Lynch in the years to come was a very sound strategy at that point in time and I would question anyone who argues that backing in that group of players above to climb the peak again with some new blood was the wrong thing to do.

A fair chunk of the hindsight heroes that want to come along and pretend like we should’ve just cut them all off at the head at 28 because we lost a final by a couple of kicks or that we should have told them we were just going to hit the draft for the next three years and hopefully they might get to see another attempt at a grand final before they all retired, I’m tipping would be made to look like fools if we went back to find their posts at the time.
has anyone shown the hard rebuilding strategy to actually work? or the top up not to? we tried topping up and failed, but we've seen geelong do it successfully. We've seen Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast all rebuild and fail, and we've seen Brisbane and now possibly Sydney do it successfully

there's no one right way to do things and the answer typically lies somewhere in the between. we made a few mistakes, it happens, but just throwing in the towel and playing every kid on the list also isn't the answer. Sydney still have JPK, Rampe and Parker as their most important players. Brisbane bought in Robbo, Hodge, Birchall etc. We need to find the right balance, which we haven't as of yet

However I have faith in our club to get it done, and even if they don't, I'll support them through it no matter what, because, what the fu** else are we gonna do?
 

Brishawk

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has anyone shown the hard rebuilding strategy to actually work? or the top up not to? we tried topping up and failed, but we've seen geelong do it successfully. We've seen Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast all rebuild and fail, and we've seen Brisbane and now possibly Sydney do it successfully

there's no one right way to do things and the answer typically lies somewhere in the between. we made a few mistakes, it happens, but just throwing in the towel and playing every kid on the list also isn't the answer. Sydney still have JPK, Rampe and Parker as their most important players. Brisbane bought in Robbo, Hodge, Birchall etc. We need to find the right balance, which we haven't as of yet

However I have faith in our club to get it done, and even if they don't, I'll support them through it no matter what, because, what the fu** else are we gonna do?
The one team to spend and extended period of time down the bottom and rise to be premier was hawthorn (pies to a lessor extent). Probably why a lot of people on here want to hit the draft hard. But there are no more priority picks to make it worth it.

I haven’t done the formal analysis but my observation was that all of the clubs acquired first round talent through the draft and from other clubs. Yes they find talent elsewhere in the draft but they all seemed to have brought in very good to elite talent from elsewhere.

Top 5 picks drafted by premier:
2020 Richmond 2

2019 Richmond 2

2018 west coast 2

2017 Richmond 2

2016 bulldogs 2

2015 hawthorn 2

2014 hawthorn 2

2013 hawthorn 3

2012 Sydney 1

2011 Geelong 0

2010 Collingwood 3 (1 priority pick)

2009 Geelong 0

2008 hawthorn 4 (2 priority picks)
 

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H00t

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Decimated by injuries to Sic, Big Boy, JOM, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Stratton killed us late in 2018
I completely misread the earlier post, thought it said 2016. I need to pay more attention.

Injuries definitely hurt in 2018 but I still think we were a bit of Richmond and west coast even with everyone in. We probably would have beaten Collingwood because we just always seem to.
 

eldorado

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The context of the list at the time was that we still had a very good core of players under 28 who we knew could perform on the biggest stage like Gunston, Smith, Breust, Frawley, Shiels, Puopolo, Birchall, Stratton, Rioli, Schoe, Duryea, Langford.... all them premiership players, with Sicily and Burton developing.
Maybe you’re forgetting we were a game clear on top with only weeks left in the season.

Grabbing Jager and Tom at the end of 2016 with the idea that we would then catapult ourselves straight back into contention and land a free agent like Tom Lynch in the years to come was a very sound strategy at that point in time and I would question anyone who argues that backing in that group of players above to climb the peak again with some new blood was the wrong thing to do.

A fair chunk of the hindsight heroes that want to come along and pretend like we should’ve just cut them all off at the head at 28 because we lost a final by a couple of kicks or that we should have told them we were just going to hit the draft for the next three years and hopefully they might get to see another attempt at a grand final before they all retired, I’m tipping would be made to look like fools if we went back to find their posts at the time.
I'm tempted to sticky this.

(and I don't mean like the South Park image of Stan's dad at his computer)
 

Brishawk

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I completely misread the earlier post, thought it said 2016. I need to pay more attention.

Injuries definitely hurt in 2018 but I still think we were a bit of Richmond and west coast even with everyone in. We probably would have beaten Collingwood because we just always seem to.
The big thing about 2018 was our best 22 was good but we had no depth at all. Howe got suspended for five weeks and we couldn’t even cover him effectively.
 

big_rig

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Footsore rebuilt for about 70 years & got over the line in 2016 - but that was more the result of an AFL sponsored gift (umpiring) than their 70 year rebuild.
They are looking huge now to be fair - if they can keep their midfield together it will be good for 5 years.
 

bris tarangau

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He gives kids a run all the time. Brockman has played every game despite being drafted at 46 last year.

Day would be playing every game if not injured.

Half the people here wanted CJ axed last year yet he is probably the best HBF under 22 in the comp and would probably be in the AA squad.

Lewis now fit is getting chances. Kosi had a few games and now goes back to BH to develop skills before I have no doubt he returns.

Downie will get chances soon.

DGB is injured but will play, and Im sure Maginness will too.

Greaves was great at the end of last year so Im sure we see him again.

And Moore. Im pretty sure half of BF wanted him axed towards the end of last year. Yet he has been very good.

That is 10 young players. Who else are you wanting to see ?
This post should be getting more 'likes'!!
 

Judd2Sewell

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This post should be getting more 'likes'!!
Out of those 10 players only 3 were actually in the team on the weekend. Having said that I'd add Morrison to the list too.

Not much point in naming players like Downie, DGB, Greaves and Finn when they are either injured or playing in the ressies. Maybe that changes this weekend.

Another named was Kosi who was "managed" so we could include TOB back in the team, for yet another underwhelming game.
 

darthmann

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Out of those 10 players only 3 were actually in the team on the weekend. Having said that I'd add Morrison to the list too.

Not much point in naming players like Downie, DGB, Greaves and Finn when they are either injured or playing in the ressies. Maybe that changes this weekend.

Another named was Kosi who was "managed" so we could include TOB back in the team, for yet another underwhelming game.
i think he's right though in that we will eventually play them

its been the same strategy each of our down years really — start off most experienced and best 22 to see where we're at, what older players are deteriorating, who is/isn't best 22, and as it starts to become clearer to the coaching staff they will look more towards youth

happened 2nd half of 2017 and two or three times in 2020, where we had 3 debutants in 2 games and then played that ultra young side that nearly knocked off port
 

Carl Spackler

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Out of those 10 players only 3 were actually in the team on the weekend. Having said that I'd add Morrison to the list too.

Not much point in naming players like Downie, DGB, Greaves and Finn when they are either injured or playing in the ressies. Maybe that changes this weekend.

Another named was Kosi who was "managed" so we could include TOB back in the team, for yet another underwhelming game.
Ha! Clarko sucks because players get injured. You're going to need to refill that grudge bottle you're nursing.
 

HODGEYROAD

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H00t as much as I enjoyed the 2016 you have very valid points about our decline, although we won 17 games and had a chance after the siren to win the QF.

It took an unprecedented clutch record of 6-0 in games decided by under a goal just to finish top 4 that season, also we struggled to beat a nothing to play for Collingwood in the final round which would have never happened in 12, 13,14 & 15.
 

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Hawk_francais

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You made the point that we keep selecting the same players, when I’ve just shown you that 50% of the 22 that you gave as an example has changed or will continue to change this year from that 2019 side.

And in response to your earlier post, you are indeed being impatient.
Ok, forgetting that what you’ve ‘just shown me’ included something about Hartley and Phillips being part of our best 22 ahead of Sicily and Gunston, we have lost more talent than we’ve gained since that day where we slumped to 3-4 against the Demons in 2019. We just haven’t been assertive as Clarko promised.

What’s more, I don’t agree with the notion that we lack young talent. But we’ve certainly been terrible at developing it. Since that game, Lewis, Morrison, Moore, Howe, CJ, Scrimshaw, all started last year at box hill, and some of them this year as well. What gives? Sure, some of them are playing really well now, but Morrison and Lewis especially have missed huge chunks of their development. They should be where Hardwick is, but they got stuck behind the likes of Henderson, Ceglar and Patton, and are still fringe players.

We said we’d get out of the wilderness quickly, but we’ve only sunk deeper, and I’m worried that if the club can’t admit where it’s at, that players will start leaving the club.
 

RoughysMullet

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It is never a bad call to chase another flag. Never.

People need to stop losing the context of our list at that point in time. We had ample reason to chase another flag.
Yeah that’s why I said in hindsight- I didn’t disagree with the decision at the time...

We’ve also been terribly unlucky over the last 5 years with injuries/retirements to key players, tough fixturing, poor umpiring, missing out in free agency, recruits not meeting expectation as well as some older players falling off the cliff quickly...

If you believe there’s a window you go for it.. but looking back it just hasn’t worked out and we would’ve been better off going to the draft earlier..
 
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darthmann

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Ok, forgetting that what you’ve ‘just shown me’ included something about Hartley and Phillips being part of our best 22 ahead of Sicily and Gunston, we have lost more talent than we’ve gained since that day where we slumped to 3-4 against the Demons in 2019. We just haven’t been assertive as Clarko promised.

What’s more, I don’t agree with the notion that we lack young talent. But we’ve certainly been terrible at developing it. Since that game, Lewis, Morrison, Moore, Howe, CJ, Scrimshaw, all started last year at box hill, and some of them this year as well. What gives? Sure, some of them are playing really well now, but Morrison and Lewis especially have missed huge chunks of their development. They should be where Hardwick is, but they got stuck behind the likes of Henderson, Ceglar and Patton, and are still fringe players.

We said we’d get out of the wilderness quickly, but we’ve only sunk deeper, and I’m worried that if the club can’t admit where it’s at, that players will start leaving the club.
why and how is playing in the VFL equivalent to missing chunks of their development

some players need exposure to the level, others develop better in the VFL. it's not a linear thing at all.

if anything it was COVID that has stunted their development

when they are knocking the door down, they will get a spot in the side. in the meantime, they work on developing their game in the VFL until they're good enough to do so

I also don't see how we're in the wilderness when we're likely going to have had 5 top 30 picks (2 top 5) over 2 seasons
 

offtherails9

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We appear to be in pretty bad strife. Our captain is looking cooked like the last one.

Our only midfielder who doesn't burn the ball is Morrison. We should feed him the ball.

I'd say our premiership window (lol) with this group is three years. Would make Mitchell and Wingard 31, Jaegar 30, Frost 30 - Gunston, Breust and Shiels likely gone.

Can we get enough pieces within that time to put together a winning group? It seems unlikely given that we appear to be bottoming out.
Yeah the age of Mitchell, Wingard and JOM is what worries me. The optimistic part of me I guess tries to liken them hopefully to what blokes like Boak and Gray are doing at Port at the moment. Playing really good footy as part of a young, exciting team who is contending for premierships. We need some luck, and maybe an extra first rounder at some point. I dunno who goes to get that though.

I understand why people might say 'oh well why would any free agent want to come to us', but so many free agents have gone to sh*t teams over the years, Essendon for example.
 

Hawk_francais

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View attachment 1100346
This is a team with small changes that coudl easily line up at some point this year, average age of 23. How do people claim we're not playing youth still, when 8 of our best 22 are under 24.
Well, if they were best 22, then we should’ve seen a few more of them on the weekend.

But seriously, if we see a lineup like that in the next 4 months I’ll be satisfied of course... but there is absolutely no chance of it happening! For a start McEvoy, Breust, Gunston and Shiels will be there. No complaints from me. But yes those players are the ones who need game-time together.

ps. Why has everyone fallen out of love with Kosi? Three weeks of standard young KPF footy and people have lost their appetite. Mitch Lewis’ first few weren’t much chop either! Reckon he’ll be great for us, hopefully Jeka too.
 

darthmann

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Well, if they were best 22, then we should’ve seen a few more of them on the weekend.

But seriously, if we see a lineup like that in the next 4 months I’ll be satisfied of course... but there is absolutely no chance of it happening! For a start McEvoy, Breust, Gunston and Shiels will be there. No complaints from me. But yes those players are the ones who need game-time together.

ps. Why has everyone fallen out of love with Kosi? Three weeks of standard young KPF footy and people have lost their appetite. Mitch Lewis’ first few weren’t much chop either! Reckon he’ll be great for us, hopefully Jeka too.
he's talking about the ones we did see on the weekend
 

Strapping Young Lad

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Ok, forgetting that what you’ve ‘just shown me’ included something about Hartley and Phillips being part of our best 22 ahead of Sicily and Gunston, we have lost more talent than we’ve gained since that day where we slumped to 3-4 against the Demons in 2019. We just haven’t been assertive as Clarko promised.

What’s more, I don’t agree with the notion that we lack young talent. But we’ve certainly been terrible at developing it. Since that game, Lewis, Morrison, Moore, Howe, CJ, Scrimshaw, all started last year at box hill, and some of them this year as well. What gives? Sure, some of them are playing really well now, but Morrison and Lewis especially have missed huge chunks of their development. They should be where Hardwick is, but they got stuck behind the likes of Henderson, Ceglar and Patton, and are still fringe players.

We said we’d get out of the wilderness quickly, but we’ve only sunk deeper, and I’m worried that if the club can’t admit where it’s at, that players will start leaving the club.
You’ve not even mentioned that most of them took a backward step by their own admission and weren’t doing what they needed to in order to get regular games in 2019 or 2020, and the most important part, that Box Hill is where young players are meant to develop.

What sort of argument are you even running with? They were on the list so they had to be played in seniors to develop? They can’t work on their deficiencies anywhere but in the best 22?

You just wanted Lewis, Moore, CJ and Morrison to be handed games last year, because “KID”?
 

Hawk_francais

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why and how is playing in the VFL equivalent to missing chunks of their development

some players need exposure to the level, others develop better in the VFL. it's not a linear thing at all.

if anything it was COVID that has stunted their development

when they are knocking the door down, they will get a spot in the side. in the meantime, they work on developing their game in the VFL until they're good enough to do so

I also don't see how we're in the wilderness when we're likely going to have had 5 top 30 picks (2 top 5) over 2 seasons
I don’t know where to start.
1. Exposure to AFL level footy
2. Playing with their AFL teammates?
3. Higher standards in preparation and on game day?
4. Confidence? Ability to play without worrying about being delisted?

More to the point, Lewis and Morrison had already proved they were AFL material. Club thought they could get more our of Henderson and Patton. They were wrong, it’s time to move on, and not make the same mistake with Downie, Koschitzke et al.

This whole “young players still have to earn their spots, they don’t get gifted games” is a luxury afforded to teams who are already playing to a winning standard.

As if the club thought Buddy and Roughy would kick more goals in 2005 than Barker and Thompson.
 

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