Close matches

[Porps_is_HOT_loz]

He did. He's a good bloke. He'd also make a good politician.

He did however intimate that there would be changes this year.

There has been, with new personnel in Hart and Clarke, but it means fk-all if Craig still makes the final calls as he did when he over-rode Jonas's suggestion in moving Massie off of Franklin in the 2nd quarter last year.

If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always got.

I always scratch my head about Craigy. He should of taken Massie of Franklin and today Shirly off Johnson!

Was that the lineup from the start?

 

[macca23]

I always scratch my head about Craigy. He should of taken Massie of Franklin and today Shirly off Johnson!

Was that the lineup from the start?

Nup.

I only noticed that little doozy from three quarter time onwards.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

If Bock kicks the goal on the siren we wouldnt be having this conversation.
He didn't and we endure yet another close loss.

Its tough but I get the feeling our grit and determination gets us back into a game with minutes to go,instead of caving in. We must be given credit for that

Get used to it because its going to be a long season.

If, if, if - excuses are starting to wear abit thin for me now. You could say this was a game we should never have won - away game, playing a more experienced team blah, blah, blah. But in the cold hard light of day it was 1 particularly bad match up that cost us the game.

The question marks are getting bigger.

 

[crowman_23]

As much as the match up may have been wrong, the most important of his three goals was there quick reply, after we had got I think 9 points in front with two goals on the run. The problem here was no much up, it may have been Shirley (my eyes weren't actually good enough to see who it was) but who ever attempted to spoil the ball in the goal square was absolutely pathetic. He needed to mark or smash the ball through, if we get possession back, we are 2 kicks in front and can take more time off the clock and win the game. It just frustrates me we can't hold the ball in and suck the time off the clock. Match-ups may not have helped, but the players on the field have to stgand up and hold on for a few minutes, and they can't do it, and Craig can't make them.

There were too many periods today where it was the same old story. Pooor decision making cost us so many times, we really should have won the game comfortably. Early there pressure caused the bad decisions, but after after we hit the lead and seemingly were in control, we never seem to be able to burn sides and kick away. We need to kick sides when they are down, we can;t give them a sniff because if we do they'll come and come hard.

 

[The Karma Bus]

In the interests of objectivity here are the stats.

I have included NAB Cup finals as they are hard fought games clubs actually try to win as opposed to the rest of the NAB which doesn't count for much.

The margin for a 'close match' was arbitrarily decided as 12 points or less.

2008: 0 wins 2 losses
2007: 2 wins 5 losses
2006: 3 wins 5 losses
2005: 6 wins 4 losses

(Note: Finals 0 wins 5 losses in close games)

So in 2005-06, when for much of the time we were regarded as either the best or second best side, we still only managed 50% win loss ratio in close matches.

Now we are generally regarded as a 'middle of the road' side, who are probably a little over 50% to make finals. So at a time we should be around 50% in close games, we are 2 wins and 7 losses for 07-08.

There is a problem. It isn't fitness. For mine it is 1) poor skills under pressure, 2) mental weakness under pressure (which results in point 1), and at its core...3) poor coaching, which results in point 2 and also in terms of disgraceful match-ups even us armchair critics can spot from a mile away.

Luck does not account for that terrible %

The club has a bad record full stop with it..
If you look back further,

2004: 1 win 3 losses
2003: 1 win 6 losses
2002: 2 wins 2 losses
2001: 2 wins 2 losses
2000: 2 wins 4 losses

Since the year 2000 margins of 3, 3, 1, 7, 2, 2, 3, 7, 4, 9, 8, 3, 9, 8, 5, 5, 1, 8, 8, 3, 2, 8, 9, 3, 7 and then 11, 10, 12, 12, 12, 10, 11..

That doesnt include nab games

 

[birdmanptr]

If, if, if - excuses are starting to wear abit thin for me now. You could say this was a game we should never have won - away game, playing a more experienced team blah, blah, blah. But in the cold hard light of day it was 1 particularly bad match up that cost us the game.
The question marks are getting bigger.

What a load of crap

Dont worry about our Rucks who are only kids and held there own after quarter time

Dont worry about our Set shot goal kicking

Dont worry about our descion making both under and under no pressure.

This is going to be a long year as we have kids in ruck and a devoloping forward line

Hudson plays for us today and we win.

 

[birdmanptr]

As much as the match up may have been wrong, the most important of his three goals was there quick reply, after we had got I think 9 points in front with two goals on the run. The problem here was no much up, it may have been Shirley (my eyes weren't actually good enough to see who it was) but who ever attempted to spoil the ball in the goal square was absolutely pathetic. He needed to mark or smash the ball through, if we get possession back, we are 2 kicks in front and can take more time off the clock and win the game. It just frustrates me we can't hold the ball in and suck the time off the clock. Match-ups may not have helped, but the players on the field have to stgand up and hold on for a few minutes, and they can't do it, and Craig can't make them.

There were too many periods today where it was the same old story. Pooor decision making cost us so many times, we really should have won the game comfortably. Early there pressure caused the bad decisions, but after after we hit the lead and seemingly were in control, we never seem to be able to burn sides and kick away. We need to kick sides when they are down, we can;t give them a sniff because if we do they'll come and come hard.

Good post to bad its not what some want to accept

 

[pjcrows]

What a load of crap

Dont worry about our Rucks who are only kids and held there own after quarter time

Dont worry about our Set shot goal kicking

Dont worry about our descion making both under and under no pressure.

This is going to be a long year as we have kids in ruck and a devoloping forward line

Hudson plays for us today and we win.

I agree with you that our side can't be expected to win every match we play. But when you're 2 goals up with under 3 minutes left, you don't lose. Not with the defence we have, or with the experience we have in the midfield.

You also don't have Shirley on Johnson. Or Massie on Franklin. It's these things that accumulate.

I'm in no way expecting "more" from the players. We had 2 debutants and some very inexperienced other players out there today. But Craig is very, very experienced - and it does concern me that he decided to leave Shirley on Johnson (or even make the move in the first place), and leave Rutten on Welsh.

Craig has done a lot. And he will do more. But it's just a bit concerning. I thought we'd lose by 4 goals, so I can't whinge too much.

 

[Geoffa32]

I think it has more to do with the fact our players are highly skilled and highly drilled in tactics and gameplay. To win close ones you have to be creative and play on instincts. we are not.

The other thing is our poor goalkicking. Not to pick on our skipper but he kicked 3 points in positions you would think he would score goals. This is what is costing us games. In close games you need to make the most of chances and that includes scoring "crucial" goals. The goals that "knock" the other team out.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

What a load of crap

Dont worry about our Rucks who are only kids and held there own after quarter time

Dont worry about our Set shot goal kicking

Dont worry about our descion making both under and under no pressure.

This is going to be a long year as we have kids in ruck and a devoloping forward line

Hudson plays for us today and we win.

and if Shirley didn't play on Johnson, we win the game.

 

[smoovy]

and if Shirley didn't play on Johnson, we win the game.

All those people who say Shirley shouldnt have played on Johnson should at least name who they would have on him instead.

The matchup I would have liked would be Massie, but he wasn't out there.

I probably would have gone Van Berlo, because he was not doing much in the midfield and has a pretty good defensive action.

We won't encounter any other sides like the Bulldogs down back.

 

[bus24]

All those people who say Shirley shouldnt have played on Johnson should at least name who they would have on him instead.

You could name half the side.

It was just utterly ****ing ridiculous.

 

[smoovy]

You could name half the side.

It was just utterly ****ing ridiculous.

Will give me at least one then if it is so easy.

 

[Mismatched]

We definitely have a problem with these close matches, IMO there are a couple of reasons for this:
-One, we lack a genuine match winning key forward, someone, who like Johnson did, kick three goals in quick succession and kick the goals that count. I'm not so worried in this area because I think Tippet will become this forward, given time to settle down to the pace of the game etc I think he has the capability of taking that grab or roving a pack whilst his opponent has gone to ground etc. that snares a goal that most can't kick. We also need to trust in a Mcleod, Goodwin or Edwards to do this and just leave them up there in this time. The other one would be Rutten, now we have 3 other decent key defenders, why not throw him forward, he set up Burtons last when Welsh dragged him forward I think, he just has that ability to remain calm whilst others panic.
-Another reason is brain fades in crucial moments, eg Thompson in the EF kicking the ball out on the full, Johncock in the NAB cup final going up to spoil instead of staying down on Milne, today whoever left Johnson alone to rove the pack in the goalsquare, then when Shirley buggered up his spoiling attempt on Johnson. Sometimes I think our small defenders need to learn to respect their opponents ability to read the play and not just be drawn to the ball. Unfortunately these brainfades are hard to fix, its just a matter of experience and remaining calm when the pressures on.
-Unfortunately Craig also must learn to react a little quicker, Shirley on Johnson was just wrong, as soon as I saw it I knew it was going to be bad, just like when Massie was on Riewoldt at the TD last year, or on Franklin in the EF, he just doesn't quite have the ability to pick the changes that need to happen and until he accepts this and lets others make this choice we will struggle.

When push comes to shove however, I wasn't too dissapointed with todays game, the youngsters stood up in the clinches and playing in these types of games can only help the development of your Porplyzias, Vinces, Mackays, Tippets, Douglas' etc. In fact it was the older blokes who struggled, Shirley and Doughty were the ones fumbling in crucial moments when Vince, Porplyzia and Mackay were all one take of the footy and moving it on well.

We must also remember that this was an inspired dogs outfit playing with the adrenalin of BJ's 300th, they had an much more experienced ruck battery/forward line and really we did well to be as close as we were with the inexperience that was playing, that wasn't a game of 2 bottom 8 sides, that was 2 top 8 sides going hard at it IMO, I would like to see a Richmond or Carlton play a game like that.

 

[marvin]

I probably would have gone Van Berlo, because he was not doing much in the midfield and has a pretty good defensive action.

I don't know that Van Berlo was a viable option, after he had a chance encounter with Minson way off the ball earlier in the quarter.

 

[Mismatched]

All those people who say Shirley shouldnt have played on Johnson should at least name who they would have on him instead.

The matchup I would have liked would be Massie, but he wasn't out there.

I probably would have gone Van Berlo, because he was not doing much in the midfield and has a pretty good defensive action.

We won't encounter any other sides like the Bulldogs down back.

I did say prematch that Massie would have been very useful in this match, whilst his form didn't warrant it, he would have given us that defence tall mid that could go with a Johnson or Welsh etc in both the air and on the ground. Basset I guess should have been on Johnson, maybe even Johncock, Stevens was also a possibility, not saying they were the answer, but Shirley I don't think was at this vital stage.

 

[smoovy]

I did say prematch that Massie would have been very useful in this match, whilst his form didn't warrant it, he would have given us that defence tall mid that could go with a Johnson or Welsh etc in both the air and on the ground. Basset I guess should have been on Johnson, maybe even Johncock, Stevens was also a possibility, not saying they were the answer, but Shirley I don't think was at this vital stage.

Dare I Say a Ben Hart of a Jason Torney type player.

Bassett was covering Welsh at the end? After Ben Rutten once again ran out of a suitable match up against the dogs.

I actually think Stiffy is too loose on key goal kicking small forwards, see Stephen Milne.

We certainly were deficient in the mid-tall sized defensive player today. On that point to we have any players coming through that would fit into the bracket? It seems to be either tall or small these days.

 

[birdmanptr]

and if Shirley didn't play on Johnson, we win the game.

and if bock kicks straight we win

 

[bus24]

and if bock kicks straight we win

And masks some rather big flaws.

 

[KingsCrow]

and if bock kicks straight we win

Bock should have never been in that situation in the first place.

 

[marvin]

You could name half the side.

It was just utterly ****ing ridiculous.

Here's half the side:

Tippett, Griffen, McGregor, Reilly (inj), Porplyzia, Burton, McLeod, Mackay, Douglas, Rutten, Vince.

Not one of those is even close to being a better matchup on Johnson than Shirley - either too big and lumbering, or stick insect kids, or needed elsewhere.

Here's the other half:

Bock - too big, plus needed elsewhere.
Stevens - was too important up forward.
Goodwin - could have worked. Had just kicked 2 goals and was at FF.
Doughty - 7 cm shorter than Shirley, 5 kg lighter, and giving height and weight to Johnson.
Edwards - similar size issues to Doughty.

And now the half viable options.

Thompson - never seen him as a defender. IMHO a bigger risk than Shirley.
Van Berlo - groggy.
Johncock - perhaps, but always a liability 1 on 1 in a marking contest.
Bassett - blowing hard. Couldn't handle Johnson in 3Q.
Symes - a possibility, but I've never seen him in the role and couldn't comment on his ability to play it.

1/2 the side? If we were Geelong circa September 2007.

 

[birdmanptr]

And masks some rather big flaws.

Good point

 

[crowie]

People are obviously frustrated with Craigy's inability to change poor matchups when they're not going right. Massie on Buddy and today with Shirley on Johnson are glaring examples.

Craig is not going to stay head coach while giving up the responsibility of match day strategy/coaching. The only solution would be for him to step aside or be sacked.

To everyone who constantly point out his matchday flaws. Who would replace him? or if you have another solution what would it be?

 

[Stiffy_18]

and if bock kicks straight we win

I am sorry but if you are pinning your hopes on a player with questionable set shots at the best of times, then you are in trouble. Bock was never going to kick that. He was at too greater angle for him. There is a reason why he is not anywhere near as good a forward as he is a defender. This is the same sort of thinking that had people dog on Thompson for kicking it out of bounds against Hawks that led to Franklin kicking a winning goal.

THe game is not won or lost by a single mistake by a player in the game, that is if you call Bock missing a mistake. Today I think it was partially lost by our coaches and partially by running out of options by the end. Again, that could be contributed to coaches but that would be a long bow to draw.

There were 2 match ups that stuck out like a sore thumbs today and thats Shirley on Johnson and Rutten on Welsh and those 2 kicked 9 goals between them. One of them kicking something like 3-4 goals in the last 4 minutes of the game.

Shirley has NEVER been great in the air and has no closing speed. Two things you absolutly need if you are going to play on Brad Johnson when he is played as a forward. As I said, if he were playing in the midfield, I would be more than happy to put Shirley on him but as a forward that was always a match up that would end in tears for us.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Gold again, Marvin.

It is interesting that with our older players - McLeod, Goodwin, Doughty, Edwards and Shirley - all were required to spend significant time in defence and/or attack at various stages of the game. Whilst the majority of their careers have been spent rotating through the midfield it seems that they are being phased out of this role. Four of those listed acquitted themselves quite well, however Shirley demonstrated that he is all at sea as a defender, admittedly opposed to a quality forward.

So what is Shirley's future? If he is unable to fill a role at times as a small defender can we have him play as a permanent midfielder? He then becomes a very limited option for Craig, basically restricted to a centre square role and on the bench. His run-with targets will increasingly look to drag him deep forward to expose the flaws we (and the entire AFL coaching fraternity) saw today.

I think there are a couple of reasons for our poor win/loss record in close matches:
1) I think we lack genuine class in the forward line. You look at the quick, skillful, game-breaking players around the league that can snare you a goal in tense situations in over-crowded forward lines - Didak, N Davis, Ablett, Franklin etc. In 1997/98 we had players like Jarman, Vardy, Bond and Modra up forward our chances of snaring something from nothing were a fair bit higher than with Perrie, Stevens, McGregor and co.

2) We have been remarkably competitive under Craig. Since the beginning on 2005 I can only think of the WCE debacle at Subiaco where we've lost a game by more than about 30 points. It is an amazing record and every time we take the field you are guaranteed a committed effort. However, at times we have managed to stay 'in' games that in reality we were never going to win.