Closest to the pin - 2022 FEDERAL AUSTRALIAN ELECTION COMPETITION

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beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,802
21,686
AFL Club
Richmond
Post in here your prediction for the outcome of this year's federal election.

To enter, predict the seats won in the house of reps for each of the following-

ALP:- Total Seats won
LNP:- Total Seats won
Other:- Total Seats won

+ any other general prediction you wish to make (could be % swing, long shot seat prediction, senate prediction, what time result will first be called by CH7/CH9 etc) that you like. This won't count in the adjudication of the result like the 3 fields above, but is a bit of fun.

Entries close 5pm AEST Saturday 21 May 2022.

Winner will be closest to predict the first 3 fields correctly or closest to, and crowned 'Big Footy Political Guru 2022' and (TBC) will be potentially awarded a virtual pin by the mods, or whoever does them usually.
 

beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,802
21,686
AFL Club
Richmond
ALP - 86
LIBS/NATS - 54
Other - 11

Approximate 5.7% swing to ALP. Liberal party to be almost wiped out of Metro Melbourne bar 3 seats.
 
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kaka

Debutant
Jul 10, 2004
143
337
AFL Club
Geelong
First one is massively pessimistic. After last election and knowing what everyday Australians are like i still think its a coalition win

COAL - 75
LABOR - 68
IND/OTHER - 8

In a better world, where people actually have a brain

COAL - 63
LABOR - 78
IND/OTHER - 10

Dream scenario

COAL - 55
LABOR - 83
IND/OTHER - 10

In this dream scenario the moderate liberals are booted and Dutton becomes leader. The party continues to go far right and self destructs. Becomes an unelectable party and Labor grows a backbone and tries to implement some of the changes the Australian people need.
 

Maggie5

Moderator
Apr 3, 2010
46,529
53,225
Victoria
AFL Club
Collingwood
Current make up:
2022-05-15_211139.jpg

By State


2022-05-15_213527.jpg
 

Hank Scorpion

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2013
4,399
9,505
Victoria
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Sheffield Wednesday
Subject to change over the week

Headline figure:
ALP: 77
L/NP: 64
OTH: 10 (2 Greens, Katter, Sharkie, 6 indys)


Bonus:
ALP win with 51.5%

ALP Gain: Reid (NSW), Banks (NSW), Bennelong (NSW), Chisholm (Vic), Swan (WA), Pearce (WA), Boothby (SA), Bass (Tas)
L/NP Gain: Hughes (NSW)
GRN Gain: Brisbane (QLD)
IND Gain: Wentworth (NSW), Kooyong (VIC), Goldstein (VIC)

Petrie loses its bellwether crown. Bass to continue its run as an ejector seat. Longer shots if it's a good ALP night: Page, La Trobe.

Senate
NSW: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
VIC: 2 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 UAP
QLD: 2 L/NP, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 UAP, 1 PHON
WA: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
SA: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
TAS: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
ACT: 1 L/NP, 1 ALP
NT: 1 L/NP, 1 ALP

L/NP: 35
ALP: 24
GRN: 12
UAP: 2
PHON: 2
Lambie: 1
(Would be typical to finally win the House, but have the senate unworkable)
 

Juddism

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 17, 2007
7,512
4,063
Victoria
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Claremont Football Club
Got a feeling it’ll be an LNP bloodbath…

ALP 89

LNP 56

Other 6
 

beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,802
21,686
AFL Club
Richmond
First one is massively pessimistic. After last election and knowing what everyday Australians are like i still think its a coalition win

COAL - 75
LABOR - 68
IND/OTHER - 8

In a better world, where people actually have a brain

COAL - 63
LABOR - 78
IND/OTHER - 10

Dream scenario

COAL - 55
LABOR - 83
IND/OTHER - 10

In this dream scenario the moderate liberals are booted and Dutton becomes leader. The party continues to go far right and self destructs. Becomes an unelectable party and Labor grows a backbone and tries to implement some of the changes the Australian people need.
Pick 1 scenario for the comp.
 

Proper Gander

Owl whisperer and secret agent
Feb 15, 2015
28,968
63,501
South Yarra
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Mt Buller Demons
Post in here your prediction for the outcome of this year's federal election.

To enter, predict the seats won in the house of reps for each of the following-

ALP:- Total Seats won
LNP:- Total Seats won
Other:- Total Seats won

+ any other general prediction you wish to make (could be % swing, long shot seat prediction, senate prediction, what time result will first be called by CH7/CH9 etc) that you like. This won't count in the adjudication of the result like the 3 fields above, but is a bit of fun.

Entries close 5pm AEST Saturday 21 May 2022.

Winner will be closest to predict the first 3 fields correctly or closest to, and crowned 'Big Footy Political Guru 2022' and (TBC) will be potentially awarded a virtual pin by the mods, or whoever does them usually.
Do we get money or something?
 

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Rotayjay

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2014
10,548
20,246
Adelaide, South Australia
AFL Club
Adelaide
Labor - 79
Coalition - 66
Others - 6

Ryan defeats Frydenberg but several teal campaigns fail, and Antony Green calls the election around 9 PM AEST. Edit: one seat away from Others and towards the Coalition.
 
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BigVic

Premiership Player
Sep 7, 2009
4,107
3,125
Bull Creek WA
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Storm, Man City, GS Warriors
From SuperVoter

ALP 65
LNP 80
Independents 3
Greens 1
Katter 1
 
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Achy Blakey Heart

Premium Platinum
Jun 29, 2011
1,648
1,979
Australia
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Celtics,Red Sox,Patriots,Dragons,
Ya gotta love the walk bait some of the ALP rusts are putting up here. But then again...they haven't learned from the last election. Reality is it will probably be very close.
 

beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,802
21,686
AFL Club
Richmond
Ya gotta love the walk bait some of the ALP rusts are putting up here. But then again...they haven't learned from the last election. Reality is it will probably be very close.
Put your prediction in and we'll see who has 'learned'.

Who knows, it might even be you who knows more about the outcome? 😜
 

dusty1234!

2017 2019 2020
Jan 14, 2020
2,002
4,128
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Manchester United
Swan, Pearce, Chisholm, Higgins, Boothby, Bass, Braddon, Reid, Robertson, Bennelong, Brisbane and Longman Labor gains
Deakin, La Trobe, Casey, Leichardt, Lindsay, North Sydney, Ryan and Sturt to come close to flipping

Goldstein, Kooyong, Wentworth to go indi

So in total 8 indis and 1 Green
81 Labor
61 Coalition
 
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