Closest to the pin - 2022 FEDERAL AUSTRALIAN ELECTION COMPETITION

[Hornberger]

Goldstein, Kooyong, Wentworth to go indi

So in total 9 indis and 1 Green

There was 6 cross benchers elected at the last election. If you are predicting 3 Indi gains, how do you get to 10 on the cross bench?

 

[Pie eyed]

Post in here your prediction for the outcome of this year's federal election.

To enter, predict the seats won in the house of reps for each of the following-

ALP:- Total Seats won
LNP:- Total Seats won
Other:- Total Seats won

+ any other general prediction you wish to make (could be % swing, long shot seat prediction, senate prediction, what time result will first be called by CH7/CH9 etc) that you like. This won't count in the adjudication of the result like the 3 fields above, but is a bit of fun.

Entries close 5pm AEST Saturday 21 May 2022.

Winner will be closest to predict the first 3 fields correctly or closest to, and crowned 'Big Footy Political Guru 2022' and (TBC) will be potentially awarded a virtual pin by the mods, or whoever does them usually.

ALP:- 84
LNP:- 60
Other:- 7

 

[Millky95]

ALP: 71
LNP: 72
Green: 1
Indep: 7

Greens+3 to ALP
4 Independents to LNP

LNP Minority Government

 

[Hoops]

Is there an on-line predictor I could use?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Is there an on-line predictor I could use?

Anthony Green has one

 

[Hoops]

ALP gains- Bass, Chisolm, Boothby, Swan
Independent gains - Goldstein

 

[dusty1234!]

There was 6 cross benchers elected at the last election. If you are predicting 3 Indi gains, how do you get to 10 on the cross bench?

Kooyong, Goldstein, Wentworth, Kennedy, Melbourne, Warringah, Indi, Clark, Mayo would get me to 9
Yeah so my bad, should be 9 on the cross bench, not 10

 

[Carn The Berries]

Not exactly sure this is where it'll end up, but I've backed the ALP to win between 76-80 as part of our punter's club this week so I hope this result comes to fruition.

ALP 77

LNP 64

Other 10

 

[Schneebly11]

ALP net gain of 5
LNP net loss of 7
Independents (no Kelly) plus 3
ALP 73
LNP 69
Ind 9

ALP plus Wilkie and Bandt and maybe Monique Ryan to guarantee supply. Katter gets speaker.

Maybe ALP can pull it off from 72 if they convince the next most left leaning independent (perhaps Zoe Daniel) to join and guarantee supply, but I can’t see them doing it from 71 or less.

ALP hits 74 or more and it’s theirs. 72-73 is open territory. 71 or less is Coalition.

My big upset prediction for the night is the ALP doesn’t pick up a seat in WA. 7West is running a stronger anti ALP campaign over here than Murdoch is over east, and West Aussies generally do as Stokes tells them.

 

[beema limapep]

21 entries so far, no 2 are the same which is good.

The average looks to be around ALP 77 LNP 64 OTH 10.

On Saturday I'll try to post a summary of everyone's prediction, sorted by Labor seats ascending, as well as tag everyone in.

For the sake of simplicity, Independents, Greens and smaller parties will be combined as OTH.

Cheers.

 

[nut]

ALP net gain of 5
LNP net loss of 7
Independents (no Kelly) plus 3
ALP 73
LNP 69
Ind 9

ALP plus Wilkie and Bandt and maybe Monique Ryan to guarantee supply. Katter gets speaker.

Maybe ALP can pull it off from 72 if they convince the next most left leaning independent (perhaps Zoe Daniel) to join and guarantee supply, but I can’t see them doing it from 71 or less.

ALP hits 74 or more and it’s theirs. 72-73 is open territory. 71 or less is Coalition.

My big upset prediction for the night is the ALP doesn’t pick up a seat in WA. 7West is running a stronger anti ALP campaign over here than Murdoch is over east, and West Aussies generally do as Stokes tells them.

Katter as speaker

 

[beema limapep]

Katter as speaker

 

[Carn The Berries]

At least the parliament will be safe from the risk of insurgency... Ole' Bob will make sure every MP is packing heat.

 

[Jascave]

In the US during the presidential election period, there is a saying, 'if you win Ohio, you're going to the White House.'

Using that as a guide, out of the 151 seats that will be up for grabs this Saturday night, which seat could mean the difference either winning or losing as far as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese is concerned if they want the keys to the Lodge?

 

[Jascave]

Here's my election prediction:

Labor 82
Coalition 63
Other 6

Labor gains: Chisholm, Dickson, Casey, Robertson, Leichhardt, Longman, Swan, Reid, Braddon, Higgins, Boothby, Bass

 

[Hoops]

Kooyong, Goldstein, Wentworth, Kennedy, Melbourne, Warringah, Indi, Clark, Mayo would get me to 9
Yeah so my bad, should be 9 on the cross bench, not 10

Hughes?

 

[beema limapep]

In the US during the presidential election period, there is a saying, 'if you win Ohio, you're going to the White House.'

Using that as a guide, out of the 151 seats that will be up for grabs this Saturday night, which seat could mean the difference either winning or losing as far as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese is concerned if they want the keys to the Lodge?

It's hard to say. If the teals in Vic start picking off Liberal seats and Labor are going ok, I reckon it's a sign.

In a really simplistic way, what I'll be looking at after 6pm Sat before looking at the local politics of individual seats, is if we take into account a uniform swing (yes I know there won't be) in the first states to close voting (NSW, VIC, TAS) any of the seats that are heading away from the LNP above the 3.3% swing needed for ALP to take government would be an ominous sign for Scomo.

These are:-

Robertson (nsw)
Casey (vic)
Dealing (vic)
Lindsay (nsw)
Latrobe (vic)
Flinders (vic)
Banks (nsw)

And beyond.

 

[Nikita Blue]

Labor 79
Coalition 64
Other 8

Fraudenberg, Wilson and Sharma all lose their seats.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Katter as speaker

Could you imagine all the Crocodile questions?

 

[footyfan1978]

ducked if I know.
Have no trust in how most people vote.
Bunch of muppets
But, FFS, love we have a choice.

I'll assume Labor win as people tend to vote the current party out.
I'll go with Labor 76
Libs/Nat coalition 67
Others 8

In the Senate I will go with Labor not have the numbers and will have to deal with some cronies and some legit types to get bills through.

 

[nut]

Could you imagine all the Crocodile questions?

Everyone gets a gun too

 

[SSwans2011]

Katter gets speaker.

If nothing else, please God let this happen.

 

[campbell]

I am hopeful Qld votes Labor.

The new ads on how NSW flood victims got 3000, us 1000.

and here we are again flooded.

 

[dusty1234!]

Hughes?

Back to Liberal

 

[campbell]

If nothing else, please God let this happen.

Noooooooooo way.