Closest to the pin - 2022 FEDERAL AUSTRALIAN ELECTION COMPETITION

Remove this Banner Ad

Pie eyed

Premium Platinum
Jun 26, 2007
41,106
20,413
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Magpies
Post in here your prediction for the outcome of this year's federal election.

To enter, predict the seats won in the house of reps for each of the following-

ALP:- Total Seats won
LNP:- Total Seats won
Other:- Total Seats won

+ any other general prediction you wish to make (could be % swing, long shot seat prediction, senate prediction, what time result will first be called by CH7/CH9 etc) that you like. This won't count in the adjudication of the result like the 3 fields above, but is a bit of fun.

Entries close 5pm AEST Saturday 21 May 2022.

Winner will be closest to predict the first 3 fields correctly or closest to, and crowned 'Big Footy Political Guru 2022' and (TBC) will be potentially awarded a virtual pin by the mods, or whoever does them usually.
ALP:- 84
LNP:- 60
Other:- 7
 

Millky95

Starchild > You
Jul 6, 2014
42,441
60,021
Melbourne
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Renegades
ALP: 71
LNP: 72
Green: 1
Indep: 7

Greens+3 to ALP
4 Independents to LNP

LNP Minority Government
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Hoops

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 30, 2004
8,871
5,655
Danger! Ive got Wood
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Vixens
1652664453815.png


ALP gains- Bass, Chisolm, Boothby, Swan
Independent gains - Goldstein
 

dusty1234!

2017 2019 2020
Jan 14, 2020
2,007
4,129
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Manchester United
There was 6 cross benchers elected at the last election. If you are predicting 3 Indi gains, how do you get to 10 on the cross bench?
Kooyong, Goldstein, Wentworth, Kennedy, Melbourne, Warringah, Indi, Clark, Mayo would get me to 9
Yeah so my bad, should be 9 on the cross bench, not 10
 

Carn The Berries

Club Legend
Sep 16, 2008
1,039
969
Perth
AFL Club
Melbourne
Not exactly sure this is where it'll end up, but I've backed the ALP to win between 76-80 as part of our punter's club this week so I hope this result comes to fruition.

ALP 77

LNP 64

Other 10
 

Schneebly11

Club Legend
Apr 7, 2020
1,431
2,928
AFL Club
Richmond
ALP net gain of 5
LNP net loss of 7
Independents (no Kelly) plus 3
ALP 73
LNP 69
Ind 9

ALP plus Wilkie and Bandt and maybe Monique Ryan to guarantee supply. Katter gets speaker.

Maybe ALP can pull it off from 72 if they convince the next most left leaning independent (perhaps Zoe Daniel) to join and guarantee supply, but I can’t see them doing it from 71 or less.

ALP hits 74 or more and it’s theirs. 72-73 is open territory. 71 or less is Coalition.

My big upset prediction for the night is the ALP doesn’t pick up a seat in WA. 7West is running a stronger anti ALP campaign over here than Murdoch is over east, and West Aussies generally do as Stokes tells them.
 
Last edited:

beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,817
21,758
AFL Club
Richmond
21 entries so far, no 2 are the same which is good.

The average looks to be around ALP 77 LNP 64 OTH 10.

On Saturday I'll try to post a summary of everyone's prediction, sorted by Labor seats ascending, as well as tag everyone in.

For the sake of simplicity, Independents, Greens and smaller parties will be combined as OTH.

Cheers.
 

nut

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 16, 2002
19,285
10,613
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Richmond
ALP net gain of 5
LNP net loss of 7
Independents (no Kelly) plus 3
ALP 73
LNP 69
Ind 9

ALP plus Wilkie and Bandt and maybe Monique Ryan to guarantee supply. Katter gets speaker.

Maybe ALP can pull it off from 72 if they convince the next most left leaning independent (perhaps Zoe Daniel) to join and guarantee supply, but I can’t see them doing it from 71 or less.

ALP hits 74 or more and it’s theirs. 72-73 is open territory. 71 or less is Coalition.

My big upset prediction for the night is the ALP doesn’t pick up a seat in WA. 7West is running a stronger anti ALP campaign over here than Murdoch is over east, and West Aussies generally do as Stokes tells them.

Katter as speaker 😂💪
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Jascave

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 17, 2005
5,245
1,158
Sandringham
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Hampton Rovers
In the US during the presidential election period, there is a saying, 'if you win Ohio, you're going to the White House.'

Using that as a guide, out of the 151 seats that will be up for grabs this Saturday night, which seat could mean the difference either winning or losing as far as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese is concerned if they want the keys to the Lodge?
 

Jascave

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 17, 2005
5,245
1,158
Sandringham
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Hampton Rovers
Here's my election prediction:

Labor 82
Coalition 63
Other 6

Labor gains: Chisholm, Dickson, Casey, Robertson, Leichhardt, Longman, Swan, Reid, Braddon, Higgins, Boothby, Bass
 

beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,817
21,758
AFL Club
Richmond
In the US during the presidential election period, there is a saying, 'if you win Ohio, you're going to the White House.'

Using that as a guide, out of the 151 seats that will be up for grabs this Saturday night, which seat could mean the difference either winning or losing as far as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese is concerned if they want the keys to the Lodge?
It's hard to say. If the teals in Vic start picking off Liberal seats and Labor are going ok, I reckon it's a sign.

In a really simplistic way, what I'll be looking at after 6pm Sat before looking at the local politics of individual seats, is if we take into account a uniform swing (yes I know there won't be) in the first states to close voting (NSW, VIC, TAS) any of the seats that are heading away from the LNP above the 3.3% swing needed for ALP to take government would be an ominous sign for Scomo.

These are:-

Robertson (nsw)
Casey (vic)
Dealing (vic)
Lindsay (nsw)
Latrobe (vic)
Flinders (vic)
Banks (nsw)

And beyond.
 

footyfan1978

Hall of Famer
Aug 27, 2014
34,222
36,838
spacetime
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
there are no other teams worthy
ducked if I know.
Have no trust in how most people vote.
Bunch of muppets
But, FFS, love we have a choice.

I'll assume Labor win as people tend to vote the current party out.
I'll go with Labor 76
Libs/Nat coalition 67
Others 8

In the Senate I will go with Labor not have the numbers and will have to deal with some cronies and some legit types to get bills through.
 

campbell

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 7, 2001
21,844
5,812
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I am hopeful Qld votes Labor.

The new ads on how NSW flood victims got 3000, us 1000.

and here we are again flooded.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad