Closest to the pin - 2022 FEDERAL AUSTRALIAN ELECTION COMPETITION

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Golden_6

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2014
7,397
13,901
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Looking at the Herald Sun, it seems to be more balanced in their federal election coverage in Victoria, with most articles being neutral than compared to The Australian which heavily favours the Coalition.
Sorry but is this taking the piss? The literal headline they ran with today was:

“PM warns Albo will try to control Victorians like Dan”

Very balanced :rolleyes:
 

Dry Rot

My hat is better than yours
Feb 21, 2002
39,040
12,372
Hawaii
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Here is my go at tomorrow night:

Starting point 2019 results:

LNP 77 (use this number - Kelly's seat will go back to the LNP)

ALP 68

Independent 6

2022 election

Probable ALP gains


4 seats across WA (definite 1, maybe 2), SA (definite 1), and Tasmania (maybe 1)

QLD probably net none, may exchange 1 seat with NLP

Say 3 or 4 outer seats in Melbourne, Sydney (includes Reid and Bennelong), one inner Melbourne

Say at least 8 in total

Seats gained say 8, so ALP 76, LNP 69 Independents 6

Probable LNP gains


Nil net in QLD

Gilmore (south coast) and Hunter in NSW

One outer Sydney seat

ALP 73, LNP 72 Independents 6

If we stop here = Minority ALP govt

And now my surprise wins for LNP


(I have read some reasonable predictions that the ON and UAP vote is way understated in published polling. Indeed, quite possibly there are >20% of people really angry and will not be voting for any of the major parties. This plus other factors I predict will lead to some surprise results)

Big NT seat beginning with L

Parramatta and Fowler (yes, Fowler!) – dud/unpopular drop in candidates

Indi and/or at least one other seat from outer Melbourne (Mad Dan hatred), or Sydney or NSW Central Coast

Total of at least 4

ALP 70 LNP 76 Independents 5

Say 3 new Teals get up (could be optimistic, they have stuffed their HTV cards)

ALP 70 LNP 73 Independents 8

PREDICTED RESULT = Minority LNP govt
 

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Tyls83

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 23, 2007
6,199
8,818
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg
Here is my go at tomorrow night:

Starting point 2019 results:

LNP 77 (use this number - Kelly's seat will go back to the LNP)

ALP 68

Independent 6

2022 election

Probable ALP gains


4 seats across WA (definite 1, maybe 2), SA (definite 1), and Tasmania (maybe 1)

QLD probably net none, may exchange 1 seat with NLP

Say 3 or 4 outer seats in Melbourne, Sydney (includes Reid and Bennelong), one inner Melbourne

Say at least 8 in total

Seats gained say 8, so ALP 76, LNP 69 Independents 6

Probable LNP gains


Nil net in QLD

Gilmore (south coast) and Hunter in NSW

One outer Sydney seat

ALP 73, LNP 72 Independents 6

If we stop here = Minority ALP govt

And now my surprise wins for LNP


(I have read some reasonable predictions that the ON and UAP vote is way understated in published polling. Indeed, quite possibly there are >20% of people really angry and will not be voting for any of the major parties. This plus other factors I predict will lead to some surprise results)

Big NT seat beginning with L

Parramatta and Fowler (yes, Fowler!) – dud/unpopular drop in candidates

Indi and/or at least one other seat from outer Melbourne (Mad Dan hatred), or Sydney or NSW Central Coast

Total of at least 4

ALP 70 LNP 76 Independents 5

Say 3 new Teals get up (could be optimistic, they have stuffed their HTV cards)

ALP 70 LNP 73 Independents 8

PREDICTED RESULT = Minority LNP govt

ALP starts with 69 notionally (Bean)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Number37

Anyhow, have a Winfield 25.
Oct 5, 2013
20,293
21,914
AFL Club
Sydney
Here is my go at tomorrow night:

Starting point 2019 results:

LNP 77 (use this number - Kelly's seat will go back to the LNP)

ALP 68

Independent 6

2022 election

Probable ALP gains


4 seats across WA (definite 1, maybe 2), SA (definite 1), and Tasmania (maybe 1)

QLD probably net none, may exchange 1 seat with NLP

Say 3 or 4 outer seats in Melbourne, Sydney (includes Reid and Bennelong), one inner Melbourne

Say at least 8 in total

Seats gained say 8, so ALP 76, LNP 69 Independents 6

Probable LNP gains


Nil net in QLD

Gilmore (south coast) and Hunter in NSW

One outer Sydney seat

ALP 73, LNP 72 Independents 6

If we stop here = Minority ALP govt

And now my surprise wins for LNP


(I have read some reasonable predictions that the ON and UAP vote is way understated in published polling. Indeed, quite possibly there are >20% of people really angry and will not be voting for any of the major parties. This plus other factors I predict will lead to some surprise results)

Big NT seat beginning with L

Parramatta and Fowler (yes, Fowler!) – dud/unpopular drop in candidates

Indi and/or at least one other seat from outer Melbourne (Mad Dan hatred), or Sydney or NSW Central Coast

Total of at least 4

ALP 70 LNP 76 Independents 5

Say 3 new Teals get up (could be optimistic, they have stuffed their HTV cards)

ALP 70 LNP 73 Independents 8

PREDICTED RESULT = Minority LNP govt

Kenneally won't lose Fowler, it's a complete Murdoch beat up.
 

beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,817
21,758
AFL Club
Richmond
Bump - Election Day. Entires close in just over 6 hours. 5pm AEST (Vic).
 

kaka

Debutant
Jul 10, 2004
143
339
AFL Club
Geelong
Here is my go at tomorrow night:

Starting point 2019 results:

LNP 77 (use this number - Kelly's seat will go back to the LNP)

ALP 68

Independent 6

2022 election

Probable ALP gains


4 seats across WA (definite 1, maybe 2), SA (definite 1), and Tasmania (maybe 1)

QLD probably net none, may exchange 1 seat with NLP

Say 3 or 4 outer seats in Melbourne, Sydney (includes Reid and Bennelong), one inner Melbourne

Say at least 8 in total

Seats gained say 8, so ALP 76, LNP 69 Independents 6

Probable LNP gains


Nil net in QLD

Gilmore (south coast) and Hunter in NSW

One outer Sydney seat

ALP 73, LNP 72 Independents 6

If we stop here = Minority ALP govt

And now my surprise wins for LNP


(I have read some reasonable predictions that the ON and UAP vote is way understated in published polling. Indeed, quite possibly there are >20% of people really angry and will not be voting for any of the major parties. This plus other factors I predict will lead to some surprise results)

Big NT seat beginning with L

Parramatta and Fowler (yes, Fowler!) – dud/unpopular drop in candidates

Indi and/or at least one other seat from outer Melbourne (Mad Dan hatred), or Sydney or NSW Central Coast

Total of at least 4

ALP 70 LNP 76 Independents 5

Say 3 new Teals get up (could be optimistic, they have stuffed their HTV cards)

ALP 70 LNP 73 Independents 8

PREDICTED RESULT = Minority LNP govt
20% of the population would vote for one nation or UAP? Thats 1 in 5. Thats a lot. If this was the case there is no way it wouldnt be reflected in polling.
 

beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,817
21,758
AFL Club
Richmond
Bump - Entries close in just 3 hours. 5pm AEST (Vic)
 

Donakebab

Premium Gold
May 18, 2009
33,565
45,518
Tempy Pub
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Detroit Red Wings
ALP: 82
LNP:60
Other: 9


fe6bc442-8f47-4fc9-b59c-206370ff6820-620x372.jpeg
 

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beema limapep

🔆🥇🦐🍺👽💨🕳🤷‍♂️
Oct 29, 2017
11,817
21,758
AFL Club
Richmond
Final selections and all locked in!

Total entries are 52.

(Fields are Username ALP seats - LNP seats - OTH seats).

———————————————————
⬇️Minority ALP/LNP Gov⬇️
———————————————————
Mitchell Madness 66 - 70 - 15
kaka 68 - 75 - 8
rank and file 70 - 64 - 17
GreyWind 70 - 72 - 9
Dry Rot 70 - 73 - 8
Millky95 71 - 72 - 8
BigVic 71 - 71 - 11
Hoops 73 - 71 - 7 (73 = most ALP seats in 12 years)
Trucker Tiger 73 - 71 - 7
Gavin Excell 73 - 68 - 10
Schneebly11 73 - 69 - 9
Golden_6 73 - 70 - 8
Messenger 73 - 70 - 8
JennyTaylor 73 - 73 - 5
Brad Goodman 74 - 66 - 11
——————————————
⬇️ALP Win (Swing >3.4%) ⬇️
——————————————
Proper Gander 76 - 63 - 12
footyfan1978 76 - 67 - 8
Maggie5 77 - 66 - 8 66
pebblesofsand 77 - 66 - 8
Baltimore Jack 77 - 65 - 9
pjcrows 77 - 65 - 9
Hank Scorpion 77 - 64 - 10 (64 = least LNP seats in 35 years)
Ned_Flanders 77 - 63 - 11
Carn The Berries 78 - 63 - 10
Johnny Bananas 78 - 63 - 10
Major Colvin 78 - 65 - 8
aCunningPlan 79 - 63 - 9
Nikita Blue - 79 - 64 - 8
Tyls83 79 - 64 - 8
Rotayjay 79 - 66 - 6
hewetta 79 - 62 -10
HairyO 80 - 63 - 8
----------------------------------
⬇️ALP Win +Carnage (>4.7%swing)⬇️
----------------------------------
Northalives 80 - 61 - 10 (61 = least LNP seats in 39 years)
Johnboi 80 - 62 - 9
dusty1234! 81 - 61 - 9
ExcitementMachine 81 - 61 - 9
Rob R 82 - 59 - 10
Hornberger 82 - 60 - 9
Donakebab 82 - 60 - 9
Jascave 82 - 63 - 6
Blue1980 82 - 63 - 6
Pie eyed 84 - 60 - 7 (84 = most ALP seats in 35 years)
Shane Sheridan 84 - 56 - 11
campbell 84 - 54 - 13
Bombermania 84 - 52 - 15
pazza 85 - 55 - 11
--‐-----------------------------------------
⬇️Historically Safe ALP 2 term zone⬇️
--------------------------------------------
beema limapep 86 - 54 - 11
Sqotty from office works 87 - 60 - 4 (87 = most ALP seats in history)
Rustin Cohle 88 - 55 - 8
Brunswick Trap King 88 - 50 - 13
Juddism 89 - 56 - 6
The King! 94 - 50 - 7
 
Last edited:

Achy Blakey Heart

Premium Platinum
Jun 29, 2011
1,649
1,981
Australia
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Celtics,Red Sox,Patriots,Dragons,
Final selections and all locked in!

Total entries are 52.

(Fields are Username ALP seats - LNP seats - OTH seats).

———————————————————
⬇️Minority ALP/LNP Gov⬇️
———————————————————
Mitchell Madness 66 - 70 - 15
kaka 68 - 75 - 8
rank and file 70 - 64 - 17
GreyWind 70 - 72 - 9
Dry Rot 70 - 73 - 8
@Milky95 71 - 72 - 8
BigVic 71 - 71 - 11
Hoops 73 - 71 - 7 (73 = most ALP seats in 12 years)
Trucker Tiger 73 - 71 - 7
Gavin Excell 73 - 68 - 10
Schneebly11 73 - 69 - 9
Golden_6 73 - 70 - 8
Messenger 73 - 70 - 8
JennyTaylor 73 - 73 - 5
Brad Goodman 74 - 66 - 11
——————————————
⬇️ALP Win (Swing >3.4%) ⬇️
——————————————
Proper Gander 76 - 63 - 12
footyfan1978 76 - 67 - 8
Maggie5 77 - 66 - 8 66
pebblesofsand 77 - 66 - 8
Baltimore Jack 77 - 65 - 9
pjcrows 77 - 65 - 9
Hank Scorpion 77 - 64 - 10 (64 = least LNP seats in 35 years)
Ned_Flanders 77 - 63 - 11
Carn The Berries 78 - 63 - 10
Johnny Bananas 78 - 63 - 10
Major Colvin 78 - 65 - 8
aCunningPlan 79 - 63 - 9
Nikita Blue - 79 - 64 - 8
Tyls83 79 - 64 - 8
Rotayjay 79 - 66 - 6
hewetta 79 - 62 -10
HairyO 80 - 63 - 8
----------------------------------
⬇️ALP Win +Carnage (>4.7%swing)⬇️
----------------------------------
Northalives 80 - 61 - 10 (61 = least LNP seats in 39 years)
Johnboi 80 - 62 - 9
dusty1234! 81 - 61 - 9
ExcitementMachine 81 - 61 - 9
Rob R 82 - 59 - 10
Hornberger 82 - 60 - 9
Donakebab 82 - 60 - 9
Jascave 82 - 63 - 6
Blue1980 82 - 63 - 6
Pie eyed 84 - 60 - 7 (84 = most ALP seats in 35 years)
Shane Sheridan 84 - 56 - 11
campbell 84 - 54 - 13
Bombermania 84 - 52 - 15
pazza 85 - 55 - 11
--‐-----------------------------------------
⬇️Historically Safe ALP 2 term zone⬇️
--------------------------------------------
beema limapep 86 - 54 - 11
Sqotty from office works 87 - 60 - 4 (87 = most ALP seats in history)
Rustin Cohle 88 - 55 - 8
Brunswick Trap King 88 - 50 - 13
Juddism 89 - 56 - 6
The King! 94 - 50 - 7

Where is mine?
 

Achy Blakey Heart

Premium Platinum
Jun 29, 2011
1,649
1,981
Australia
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Celtics,Red Sox,Patriots,Dragons,
Labor 73
Coalition 70
Others 8

Labour to form Government with 3 Greens/Independent (Bandt, Ryan, Daniel) candidates.

Will be a one term gov for ALP then and about 18 months in the chair for albo. They won’t get into bed with the Greens again if they have a brain in their apparatchik heads.
 

Achy Blakey Heart

Premium Platinum
Jun 29, 2011
1,649
1,981
Australia
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Celtics,Red Sox,Patriots,Dragons,
Sorry but is this taking the piss? The literal headline they ran with today was:

“PM warns Albo will try to control Victorians like Dan”

Very balanced :rolleyes:

I’m not sure albo will control like Andrews……but in terms of Andrews being a controlling * of a leader the HUN got this right.
 

rank and file

Premiership Player
Jun 9, 2013
4,122
4,738
michael mitchell country
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
bell park
Final selections and all locked in!

Total entries are 52.

(Fields are Username ALP seats - LNP seats - OTH seats).

———————————————————
⬇️Minority ALP/LNP Gov⬇️
———————————————————
Mitchell Madness 66 - 70 - 15
kaka 68 - 75 - 8
rank and file 70 - 64 - 17
GreyWind 70 - 72 - 9
Dry Rot 70 - 73 - 8
@Milky95 71 - 72 - 8
BigVic 71 - 71 - 11
Hoops 73 - 71 - 7 (73 = most ALP seats in 12 years)
Trucker Tiger 73 - 71 - 7
Gavin Excell 73 - 68 - 10
Schneebly11 73 - 69 - 9
Golden_6 73 - 70 - 8
Messenger 73 - 70 - 8
JennyTaylor 73 - 73 - 5
Brad Goodman 74 - 66 - 11
——————————————
⬇️ALP Win (Swing >3.4%) ⬇️
——————————————
Proper Gander 76 - 63 - 12
footyfan1978 76 - 67 - 8
Maggie5 77 - 66 - 8 66
pebblesofsand 77 - 66 - 8
Baltimore Jack 77 - 65 - 9
pjcrows 77 - 65 - 9
Hank Scorpion 77 - 64 - 10 (64 = least LNP seats in 35 years)
Ned_Flanders 77 - 63 - 11
Carn The Berries 78 - 63 - 10
Johnny Bananas 78 - 63 - 10
Major Colvin 78 - 65 - 8
aCunningPlan 79 - 63 - 9
Nikita Blue - 79 - 64 - 8
Tyls83 79 - 64 - 8
Rotayjay 79 - 66 - 6
hewetta 79 - 62 -10
HairyO 80 - 63 - 8
----------------------------------
⬇️ALP Win +Carnage (>4.7%swing)⬇️
----------------------------------
Northalives 80 - 61 - 10 (61 = least LNP seats in 39 years)
Johnboi 80 - 62 - 9
dusty1234! 81 - 61 - 9
ExcitementMachine 81 - 61 - 9
Rob R 82 - 59 - 10
Hornberger 82 - 60 - 9
Donakebab 82 - 60 - 9
Jascave 82 - 63 - 6
Blue1980 82 - 63 - 6
Pie eyed 84 - 60 - 7 (84 = most ALP seats in 35 years)
Shane Sheridan 84 - 56 - 11
campbell 84 - 54 - 13
Bombermania 84 - 52 - 15
pazza 85 - 55 - 11
--‐-----------------------------------------
⬇️Historically Safe ALP 2 term zone⬇️
--------------------------------------------
beema limapep 86 - 54 - 11
Sqotty from office works 87 - 60 - 4 (87 = most ALP seats in history)
Rustin Cohle 88 - 55 - 8
Brunswick Trap King 88 - 50 - 13
Juddism 89 - 56 - 6
The King! 94 - 50 - 7
Good stuff beema limapep.
Hoping to see the 3rd figure hit double figures,
I live in a big federal paddock,but at least it's not QLD
Division_of_Durack_2022.png

Went Labour 1st,LNP last.
 

Rotayjay

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2014
10,549
20,248
Adelaide, South Australia
AFL Club
Adelaide
Well I stuffed up mine. I had no idea the teal wave was actually going to come off, overestimating the Labor swing and overestimating the Coalition's ability to sandbag. We'll get final results declared in a few weeks.
 

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