Closest to the pin - 2022 FEDERAL AUSTRALIAN ELECTION COMPETITION

[beema limapep]

BUMP - do you know better than 97% of your colleagues? Put your prediction in below and win great stuff like respect, honour, and all that!

 

[aCunningPlan]

Labor 79
Coalition 63
Others 9

 

[Jascave]

Seeing the election result could be a lot closer than many people predicted, expect the ABC's Antony Green to call the result around 10:00pm (AEST)/9:30pm (SA/NT)/8:00pm (WA)

 

[aCunningPlan]

Seeing the election result could be a lot closer than many people predicted, expect the ABC's Antony Green to call the result around 10:00pm (AEST)/9:30pm (SA/NT)/8:00pm (WA)

No, we'll know by 8pm.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

No, we'll know by 8pm.

no chance. about 20% of the votes are postal, and these take much longer to count. its going to be 1-2 weeks before we know who has won IMO

 

[Number37]

no chance. about 20% of the votes are postal, and these take much longer to count. its going to be 1-2 weeks before we know who has won IMO

If the swing is on it becomes evident very early.
If the swing isn't on start drinking early.

 

[Number37]

IMO
Labor 85+
LNP can GAGF
Others 10

 

[Free Agent]

One thing to watch out for is which newspapers across Australia has endorsed either Morrison or Albanese in their election day editorials.

Have you heard of a person named Robert Murdoch.

Newspapers and Media are the worst to watch out for. They are all own and run by Murdoch and he is a well known Liberal supporter. Don't trust these sources for getting correct information.




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[Messenger]

Labor 73
Coalition 70
Ind 8

Frydenberg to survive by the skin of his teeth but Wilson to lose. Overall teal campaign will yield swings again the government but not many seats.

 

[Jascave]

Have you heard of a person named Robert Murdoch.

Newspapers and Media are the worst to watch out for. They are all own and run by Murdoch and he is a well known Liberal supporter. Don't trust these sources for getting correct information.




Sent from my CPH2025 using Tapatalk

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has called for a change of government in their respective editorials. What makes it even more interesting is that both papers are run by Nine Media, which is headed up by Peter Costello, former Treasurer in the 1996-2007 Howard governments.

 

[beema limapep]

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has called for a change of government in their respective editorials. What makes it even more interesting is that both papers are run by Nine Media, which is headed up by Peter Costello, former Treasurer in the 1996-2007 Howard governments.

They may have, but you have to go hunting for it. 90% of articles from those papers are pro liberal.

Meanwhile, at the Murdochracy....

 

[pazza]

Labor 85
Coalition 55
Crossbench 11

 

[Jascave]

They may have, but you have to go hunting for it. 90% of articles from those papers are pro liberal.

Meanwhile, at the Murdochracy....

Looking at the Herald Sun, it seems to be more balanced in their federal election coverage in Victoria, with most articles being neutral than compared to The Australian which heavily favours the Coalition.

 

[Blue1980]

If Scott Morrison somehow wins the election on Saturday night, watch for the Labor Party to completely implode big time.

At least Anthony Albanese won't have to worry about a leadership spill within the Labor Party if he loses, because former PM Kevin Rudd changed the rules on leadership challenges in the Labor Party after the Rudd v Gillard disaster.

Changing leadership rules was a great move.

I think if LNP get in again, ALP will need to do a few things:

• ramp up their funding
• work more closely with greens
• be more harder hitting towards LNP and fringe loonies.

I think ALP will win though, my prediction:

ALP: 82
LNP: 63
Other: 6

 

[Blue1980]

Looking at the Herald Sun, it seems to be more balanced in their federal election coverage in Victoria, with most articles being neutral than compared to The Australian which heavily favours the Coalition.

We are more of a labor state than any other in Australia. They need to be maybe slightly more subtle here.

What I can’t understand is the fact that ALP primary vote is 37% state and 32% federal (from 2019). Wtf would someone vote ALP state but not federal (unless going with the greens, can’t see why you’d vote ALP Vic then go LNP federal).

 

[pjcrows]

Just found out this thread existed! Thanks Nikita Blue

ALP 77
LNP 65
IND 8
GRN 1

Antony Green doesn't call it until 11:00pm, or possibly not at all.

Surprises: Grey just falls short of an IND gain. GRN nearly take Griffith.

 

[Caesar]

If anyone is interested in the technical details of how Antony Green does his analysis, he gave a great talk at LinuxCon a couple of months ago

 

[beema limapep]

BUMP - competition closes in less than 24 hours!

 

[Rob R]

I haven't seen a government and PM so hated (justifiably) so I expect the polls don't reflect the full carnage to come tomorrow.

LNP down to 59

Losing to ALP: Bass,Chisholm, Boothby, Braddon, Swan, Higgins, Robertson, Casey, Brisbane, Flinders, Bennelong, Menzies, Hughes

Losing to Independents : Wentworth, Kooyong, Goldstein , Nicholls

ALP up to 82

Others up to 10


SENATE (Ends up LNP 33, ALP 25, GRN 11, OTH 7)

NSW: Lnp 2, ALP 2, ONP 1, GRN 1
ACT ALP 1 IND 1
VIC LNP 3 ALP 2 GRN 1
QLD LNP 3 ALP 2 ONP 1
WA LNP 3 ALP 2 GRN 1
SA LNP 2 ALP 2 GRN 1 OTH 1
NT ALP 1 LNP 1
TAS LNP 2 ALP 2 LAMB 1 GRN 1



On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[pebblesofsand]

Poll Bludger aggregation showing 54:46 TPP - a swing of 5.7%.

If thats close to actual voting then its a shellacking for the LNP.

Labor - 77

LNP - 66

IND - 8

 

[Hornberger]

ALP - 82
LNP - 60
OTH - 9

 

[Bombermania]

ALP 84
Libs/Nats 52
Others 15

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

ALP 88
LNP 50
Others 13

 

[Golden_6]

Looking at the Herald Sun, it seems to be more balanced in their federal election coverage in Victoria, with most articles being neutral than compared to The Australian which heavily favours the Coalition.

Sorry but is this taking the piss? The literal headline they ran with today was:

“PM warns Albo will try to control Victorians like Dan”

Very balanced

 

[Dry Rot]

Here is my go at tomorrow night:

Starting point 2019 results:

LNP 77 (use this number - Kelly's seat will go back to the LNP)

ALP 68

Independent 6

2022 election

Probable ALP gains

4 seats across WA (definite 1, maybe 2), SA (definite 1), and Tasmania (maybe 1)

QLD probably net none, may exchange 1 seat with NLP

Say 3 or 4 outer seats in Melbourne, Sydney (includes Reid and Bennelong), one inner Melbourne

Say at least 8 in total

Seats gained say 8, so ALP 76, LNP 69 Independents 6

Probable LNP gains

Nil net in QLD

Gilmore (south coast) and Hunter in NSW

One outer Sydney seat

ALP 73, LNP 72 Independents 6

If we stop here = Minority ALP govt

And now my surprise wins for LNP

(I have read some reasonable predictions that the ON and UAP vote is way understated in published polling. Indeed, quite possibly there are >20% of people really angry and will not be voting for any of the major parties. This plus other factors I predict will lead to some surprise results)

Big NT seat beginning with L

Parramatta and Fowler (yes, Fowler!) – dud/unpopular drop in candidates

Indi and/or at least one other seat from outer Melbourne (Mad Dan hatred), or Sydney or NSW Central Coast

Total of at least 4

ALP 70 LNP 76 Independents 5

Say 3 new Teals get up (could be optimistic, they have stuffed their HTV cards)

ALP 70 LNP 73 Independents 8

PREDICTED RESULT = Minority LNP govt