Closest to the pin - 2022 FEDERAL AUSTRALIAN ELECTION COMPETITION

[Tyls83]

ALP 79
LNP 64
OTH 8

 

[Tyls83]

Here is my go at tomorrow night:

Starting point 2019 results:

LNP 77 (use this number - Kelly's seat will go back to the LNP)

ALP 68

Independent 6

2022 election

Probable ALP gains

4 seats across WA (definite 1, maybe 2), SA (definite 1), and Tasmania (maybe 1)

QLD probably net none, may exchange 1 seat with NLP

Say 3 or 4 outer seats in Melbourne, Sydney (includes Reid and Bennelong), one inner Melbourne

Say at least 8 in total

Seats gained say 8, so ALP 76, LNP 69 Independents 6

Probable LNP gains

Nil net in QLD

Gilmore (south coast) and Hunter in NSW

One outer Sydney seat

ALP 73, LNP 72 Independents 6

If we stop here = Minority ALP govt

And now my surprise wins for LNP

(I have read some reasonable predictions that the ON and UAP vote is way understated in published polling. Indeed, quite possibly there are >20% of people really angry and will not be voting for any of the major parties. This plus other factors I predict will lead to some surprise results)

Big NT seat beginning with L

Parramatta and Fowler (yes, Fowler!) – dud/unpopular drop in candidates

Indi and/or at least one other seat from outer Melbourne (Mad Dan hatred), or Sydney or NSW Central Coast

Total of at least 4

ALP 70 LNP 76 Independents 5

Say 3 new Teals get up (could be optimistic, they have stuffed their HTV cards)

ALP 70 LNP 73 Independents 8

PREDICTED RESULT = Minority LNP govt

ALP starts with 69 notionally (Bean)


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[Number37]

Here is my go at tomorrow night:

Starting point 2019 results:

LNP 77 (use this number - Kelly's seat will go back to the LNP)

ALP 68

Independent 6

2022 election

Probable ALP gains

4 seats across WA (definite 1, maybe 2), SA (definite 1), and Tasmania (maybe 1)

QLD probably net none, may exchange 1 seat with NLP

Say 3 or 4 outer seats in Melbourne, Sydney (includes Reid and Bennelong), one inner Melbourne

Say at least 8 in total

Seats gained say 8, so ALP 76, LNP 69 Independents 6

Probable LNP gains

Nil net in QLD

Gilmore (south coast) and Hunter in NSW

One outer Sydney seat

ALP 73, LNP 72 Independents 6

If we stop here = Minority ALP govt

And now my surprise wins for LNP

(I have read some reasonable predictions that the ON and UAP vote is way understated in published polling. Indeed, quite possibly there are >20% of people really angry and will not be voting for any of the major parties. This plus other factors I predict will lead to some surprise results)

Big NT seat beginning with L

Parramatta and Fowler (yes, Fowler!) – dud/unpopular drop in candidates

Indi and/or at least one other seat from outer Melbourne (Mad Dan hatred), or Sydney or NSW Central Coast

Total of at least 4

ALP 70 LNP 76 Independents 5

Say 3 new Teals get up (could be optimistic, they have stuffed their HTV cards)

ALP 70 LNP 73 Independents 8

PREDICTED RESULT = Minority LNP govt

Kenneally won't lose Fowler, it's a complete Murdoch beat up.

 

[beema limapep]

Bump - Election Day. Entires close in just over 6 hours. 5pm AEST (Vic).

 

[Johnboi]

ALP 80
LNP 62
IND 9

 

[Gavin Excell]

ALP 73
Coalition 68
Other 10

 

[beema limapep]

Bump - Entries close in just 3 hours. 5pm AEST (Vic)

 

[Donakebab]

ALP: 82
LNP:60
Other: 9

 

[Rustin Cohle]

ALP: 88
LNP: 55
Other: 8

 

[beema limapep]

Entries have closed

 

[beema limapep]

Final selections and all locked in!

Total entries are 52.

(Fields are Username ALP seats - LNP seats - OTH seats).

———————————————————
Minority ALP/LNP Gov
———————————————————
Mitchell Madness 66 - 70 - 15
kaka 68 - 75 - 8
rank and file 70 - 64 - 17
GreyWind 70 - 72 - 9
Dry Rot 70 - 73 - 8
Millky95 71 - 72 - 8
BigVic 71 - 71 - 11
Hoops 73 - 71 - 7 (73 = most ALP seats in 12 years)
Trucker Tiger 73 - 71 - 7
Gavin Excell 73 - 68 - 10
Schneebly11 73 - 69 - 9
Golden_6 73 - 70 - 8
Messenger 73 - 70 - 8
JennyTaylor 73 - 73 - 5
Brad Goodman 74 - 66 - 11
——————————————
ALP Win (Swing >3.4%)
——————————————
Proper Gander 76 - 63 - 12
footyfan1978 76 - 67 - 8
Maggie5 77 - 66 - 8 66
pebblesofsand 77 - 66 - 8
Baltimore Jack 77 - 65 - 9
pjcrows 77 - 65 - 9
Hank Scorpion 77 - 64 - 10 (64 = least LNP seats in 35 years)
Ned_Flanders 77 - 63 - 11
Carn The Berries 78 - 63 - 10
Johnny Bananas 78 - 63 - 10
Major Colvin 78 - 65 - 8
aCunningPlan 79 - 63 - 9
Nikita Blue - 79 - 64 - 8
Tyls83 79 - 64 - 8
Rotayjay 79 - 66 - 6
hewetta 79 - 62 -10
HairyO 80 - 63 - 8
----------------------------------
ALP Win +Carnage (>4.7%swing)
----------------------------------
Northalives 80 - 61 - 10 (61 = least LNP seats in 39 years)
Johnboi 80 - 62 - 9
dusty1234! 81 - 61 - 9
ExcitementMachine 81 - 61 - 9
Rob R 82 - 59 - 10
Hornberger 82 - 60 - 9
Donakebab 82 - 60 - 9
Jascave 82 - 63 - 6
Blue1980 82 - 63 - 6
Pie eyed 84 - 60 - 7 (84 = most ALP seats in 35 years)
Shane Sheridan 84 - 56 - 11
campbell 84 - 54 - 13
Bombermania 84 - 52 - 15
pazza 85 - 55 - 11
--‐-----------------------------------------
Historically Safe ALP 2 term zone
--------------------------------------------
beema limapep 86 - 54 - 11
Sqotty from office works 87 - 60 - 4 (87 = most ALP seats in history)
Rustin Cohle 88 - 55 - 8
Brunswick Trap King 88 - 50 - 13
Juddism 89 - 56 - 6
The King! 94 - 50 - 7

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Not with 20-25% being postal votes

I postaled for the first time this year.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Final selections and all locked in!

Total entries are 52.

(Fields are Username ALP seats - LNP seats - OTH seats).

———————————————————
Minority ALP/LNP Gov
———————————————————
Mitchell Madness 66 - 70 - 15
kaka 68 - 75 - 8
rank and file 70 - 64 - 17
GreyWind 70 - 72 - 9
Dry Rot 70 - 73 - 8
@Milky95 71 - 72 - 8
BigVic 71 - 71 - 11
Hoops 73 - 71 - 7 (73 = most ALP seats in 12 years)
Trucker Tiger 73 - 71 - 7
Gavin Excell 73 - 68 - 10
Schneebly11 73 - 69 - 9
Golden_6 73 - 70 - 8
Messenger 73 - 70 - 8
JennyTaylor 73 - 73 - 5
Brad Goodman 74 - 66 - 11
——————————————
ALP Win (Swing >3.4%)
——————————————
Proper Gander 76 - 63 - 12
footyfan1978 76 - 67 - 8
Maggie5 77 - 66 - 8 66
pebblesofsand 77 - 66 - 8
Baltimore Jack 77 - 65 - 9
pjcrows 77 - 65 - 9
Hank Scorpion 77 - 64 - 10 (64 = least LNP seats in 35 years)
Ned_Flanders 77 - 63 - 11
Carn The Berries 78 - 63 - 10
Johnny Bananas 78 - 63 - 10
Major Colvin 78 - 65 - 8
aCunningPlan 79 - 63 - 9
Nikita Blue - 79 - 64 - 8
Tyls83 79 - 64 - 8
Rotayjay 79 - 66 - 6
hewetta 79 - 62 -10
HairyO 80 - 63 - 8
----------------------------------
ALP Win +Carnage (>4.7%swing)
----------------------------------
Northalives 80 - 61 - 10 (61 = least LNP seats in 39 years)
Johnboi 80 - 62 - 9
dusty1234! 81 - 61 - 9
ExcitementMachine 81 - 61 - 9
Rob R 82 - 59 - 10
Hornberger 82 - 60 - 9
Donakebab 82 - 60 - 9
Jascave 82 - 63 - 6
Blue1980 82 - 63 - 6
Pie eyed 84 - 60 - 7 (84 = most ALP seats in 35 years)
Shane Sheridan 84 - 56 - 11
campbell 84 - 54 - 13
Bombermania 84 - 52 - 15
pazza 85 - 55 - 11
--‐-----------------------------------------
Historically Safe ALP 2 term zone
--------------------------------------------
beema limapep 86 - 54 - 11
Sqotty from office works 87 - 60 - 4 (87 = most ALP seats in history)
Rustin Cohle 88 - 55 - 8
Brunswick Trap King 88 - 50 - 13
Juddism 89 - 56 - 6
The King! 94 - 50 - 7

Where is mine?

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Labor 73
Coalition 70
Others 8

Labour to form Government with 3 Greens/Independent (Bandt, Ryan, Daniel) candidates.

Will be a one term gov for ALP then and about 18 months in the chair for albo. They won’t get into bed with the Greens again if they have a brain in their apparatchik heads.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Sorry but is this taking the piss? The literal headline they ran with today was:

“PM warns Albo will try to control Victorians like Dan”

Very balanced

I’m not sure albo will control like Andrews……but in terms of Andrews being a controlling * of a leader the HUN got this right.

 

[Millky95]

@Milky95 71 - 72 - 8

2 Ls, my dude

 

[rank and file]

Final selections and all locked in!

Total entries are 52.

(Fields are Username ALP seats - LNP seats - OTH seats).

———————————————————
Minority ALP/LNP Gov
———————————————————
Mitchell Madness 66 - 70 - 15
kaka 68 - 75 - 8
rank and file 70 - 64 - 17
GreyWind 70 - 72 - 9
Dry Rot 70 - 73 - 8
@Milky95 71 - 72 - 8
BigVic 71 - 71 - 11
Hoops 73 - 71 - 7 (73 = most ALP seats in 12 years)
Trucker Tiger 73 - 71 - 7
Gavin Excell 73 - 68 - 10
Schneebly11 73 - 69 - 9
Golden_6 73 - 70 - 8
Messenger 73 - 70 - 8
JennyTaylor 73 - 73 - 5
Brad Goodman 74 - 66 - 11
——————————————
ALP Win (Swing >3.4%)
——————————————
Proper Gander 76 - 63 - 12
footyfan1978 76 - 67 - 8
Maggie5 77 - 66 - 8 66
pebblesofsand 77 - 66 - 8
Baltimore Jack 77 - 65 - 9
pjcrows 77 - 65 - 9
Hank Scorpion 77 - 64 - 10 (64 = least LNP seats in 35 years)
Ned_Flanders 77 - 63 - 11
Carn The Berries 78 - 63 - 10
Johnny Bananas 78 - 63 - 10
Major Colvin 78 - 65 - 8
aCunningPlan 79 - 63 - 9
Nikita Blue - 79 - 64 - 8
Tyls83 79 - 64 - 8
Rotayjay 79 - 66 - 6
hewetta 79 - 62 -10
HairyO 80 - 63 - 8
----------------------------------
ALP Win +Carnage (>4.7%swing)
----------------------------------
Northalives 80 - 61 - 10 (61 = least LNP seats in 39 years)
Johnboi 80 - 62 - 9
dusty1234! 81 - 61 - 9
ExcitementMachine 81 - 61 - 9
Rob R 82 - 59 - 10
Hornberger 82 - 60 - 9
Donakebab 82 - 60 - 9
Jascave 82 - 63 - 6
Blue1980 82 - 63 - 6
Pie eyed 84 - 60 - 7 (84 = most ALP seats in 35 years)
Shane Sheridan 84 - 56 - 11
campbell 84 - 54 - 13
Bombermania 84 - 52 - 15
pazza 85 - 55 - 11
--‐-----------------------------------------
Historically Safe ALP 2 term zone
--------------------------------------------
beema limapep 86 - 54 - 11
Sqotty from office works 87 - 60 - 4 (87 = most ALP seats in history)
Rustin Cohle 88 - 55 - 8
Brunswick Trap King 88 - 50 - 13
Juddism 89 - 56 - 6
The King! 94 - 50 - 7

Good stuff beema limapep.
Hoping to see the 3rd figure hit double figures,
I live in a big federal paddock,but at least it's not QLD

Went Labour 1st,LNP last.

 

[beema limapep]

Where is mine?

Not specific enough.

 

[footyfan1978]

All keep your day job.
None of us have got close.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

All keep your day job.
None of us have got close.

10 still in the air, long way to go yet

 

[footyfan1978]

10 still in the air, long way to go yet

True, but as a browse of what we all had, I see none of us really close enough to oust Nostradamus

 

[Rotayjay]

Well I stuffed up mine. I had no idea the teal wave was actually going to come off, overestimating the Labor swing and overestimating the Coalition's ability to sandbag. We'll get final results declared in a few weeks.

 

[Rotayjay]

Ned_Flanders wasn't too far off. How do you work out closest to the pin when you're dealing with three numbers that cannibalise each other? Add up how wrong each person was about the three categories?

 

[beema limapep]

Going to be tough to pick a winner with the extent of 'others'.

It will take some time for the results to come in.

 

[footyfan1978]

Not followed closely in last two or three days.
Still a few seats in doubt.. Deakin, McNamara, Brisbane and Gimore I think.
I might fluke the number of seats Labor hold but still feel way off overall.