Analysis Clubs days break differential

[BF Tiger]

Oh hey, Geelong play Richmond off a 5 day break. They get 9 days.

Weird how this happens with all their matches against potential top 4 sides

Cats - two games in 14 days.
Tigers - two games in 9 days.

 

[bzparkes]

Oh hey, Geelong play Richmond off a 5 day break. They get 9 days.

Weird how this happens with all their matches against potential top 4 sides

Just a quirk of the draw mate.

 

[Aramis]

Final Siren

This looks like an analysis that you would relish.

 

[Ron The Bear]

richmund supporters think getting a massive fixture advantage for the 8000th time in a row is just normal
coincidentally its the same ratio of Richmund players getting off striking charges

sickening how much the VFL cheats for this club

Only club to have played 15 games. We're entitled to a bye like every other club.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren

This looks like an analysis that you would relish.

Ha, absolutely!

The benefit of an extra day or two's rest is one of those common-sense theories that everyone believes in despite the absence of any evidence. (Like the importance of "momentum.") Plenty of people have gone looking for the stats to back it up, but they're not there. At best, there might be a small benefit in very particular windows, but even that's suspect.

Funnily enough, there is pretty good evidence that byes hurt your chances of winning the next week, i.e. too much rest is bad, but no-one takes that seriously.

The most comprehensive analysis I've seen is by Tony Corke over at Matter of Stats, but this piece by Stats Insider is good, too, and more readable for non-stat nerds.

In summary, though: If days' break was a significant factor, we should be able to see it in the stats, and we can't.

 

[HairyO]

Games with < 7 days' break and shorter break than opposition

Club	R3-11	R12-17	Total
Coll	4	3	7
Haw	3	4	7
GWS	2	4	6
Adel	4	1	5
Bris	3	2	5
Ess	2	3	5
Frem	2	3	5
Geel	2	3	5
G.C.	2	3	5
N.M.	1	3	4
Rich	3	1	4
St.K	3	1	4
Melb	2	1	3
W.B.	1	2	3
Carl	1	1	2
P.A.	2	0	2
Syd	2	0	2
W.C.	0	2	2

This is the list which matters. 7 days vs 9 days who cares. Both have a full week.

We have been hammered by the number of 5 day breaks vs teams with 7 to 9 day breaks.

And also we keep getting our home games at the opposition's home ground. Gil and Hocking have had a lot of fun punishing Hawthorn, knowing that if Clarko speaks out they can hit him with a $100,000 fine.

1 true home game all year. 7 nominal home games and 10 nominal away games, but 3 of those "home" games were at opposition home games.

And people wonder why we went from 2 and 1 to where we are now.

 

[HairyO]

Ha, absolutely!

The benefit of an extra day or two's rest is one of those common-sense theories that everyone believes in despite the absence of any evidence. (Like the importance of "momentum.") Plenty of people have gone looking for the stats to back it up, but they're not there. At best, there might be a small benefit in very particular windows, but even that's suspect.

Funnily enough, there is pretty good evidence that byes hurt your chances of winning the next week, i.e. too much rest is bad, but no-one takes that seriously.

The most comprehensive analysis I've seen is by Tony Corke over at Matter of Stats, but this piece by Stats Insider is good, too, and more readable for non-stat nerds.

In summary, though: If days' break was a significant factor, we should be able to see it in the stats, and we can't.

Historically the very short breaks have been rare, and usually around ANZAC Day, Easter, and Queen's Birthday. With longer breaks either side.

2020 has been totally different.