Club Focus Collingwood 2021 - Kreuger, Lipinski, Daicos, Murley, Harrison

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Lings of Geelong

Debutant
Sep 16, 2021
62
83
Wollongong
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yeah I agree.

Essendon's future 2nd will also allow us to trade our future 1st, whether we do that or not is a different question.

But ultimately Essendon's future 2nd + 3x future 3rds puts us in a great position to trade into this year's draft - hopefully in the early 20s, but if not late 20s is also fine.
I'm excited to see how it plays out. I'd love to see the whiteboard in GW's office.

Hopefully we keep next year's 1st. As much as all these possibilities excite me, it's hard to forget that we could have been getting Callaghan and Daicos this year if we didn't do the GWS trade.

I wonder if there's a way to get 18 (will become 20) from Brisbane. They will have already picked in the first round, and will be keen for 2022 points to match F/S bids
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
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I'm excited to see how it plays out. I'd love to see the whiteboard in GW's office.

Hopefully we keep next year's 1st. As much as all these possibilities excite me, it's hard to forget that we could have been getting Callaghan and Daicos this year if we didn't do the GWS trade.

I wonder if there's a way to get 18 (will become 20) from Brisbane. They will have already picked in the first round, and will be keen for 2022 points to match F/S bids
I think it's an interesting proposal.

But I reckon they are much more likely to split their future 1st into multiple picks next year, since that pick would be absorbed through the bid anyways even if they had enough points.

Although if they are happy to go through the trouble of moving their 2022 1st into something else, we could definitely offer up Essendon future 2nd (28) + Richmond future 3rd (43) + Brisbane future 3rd (50) for pick 20.

This roughly equates to a gain of over 400 points in net value, and an increase of 1328 points for next year's draft, meaning they can trade it out without bringing anything in and still match a top 5 bid.
 

Lings of Geelong

Debutant
Sep 16, 2021
62
83
Wollongong
AFL Club
Collingwood
I think it's an interesting proposal.

But I reckon they are much more likely to split their future 1st into multiple picks next year, since that pick would be absorbed through the bid anyways even if they had enough points.

Although if they are happy to go through the trouble of moving their 2022 1st into something else, we could definitely offer up Essendon future 2nd (28) + Richmond future 3rd (43) + Brisbane future 3rd (50) for pick 20.

This roughly equates to a gain of over 400 points in net value, and an increase of 1328 points for next year's draft, meaning they can trade it out without bringing anything in and still match a top 5 bid.
Yeah they could always trade their 2022 1st for a 2023 first. An option we should have kept up our sleeve with this year's 1st...
 

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Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
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A trade proposal that me and Prochard123 have discussed which makes sense to me, i know he wants something slightly different but im not sure it works as much for either

Essendon:
F2 (~28) + Pick 48(51) + Pick 52(56)
for
Collingwood:
36 + 38 + F3 (Tied to Richmond) ?

Essendon have some fairly highly rated Davey kids and maybe even an Alessio aswell to make points up for next year
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
7,147
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A trade proposal that me and Prochard123 have discussed which makes sense to me, i know he wants something slightly different but im not sure it works as much for either

Essendon:
F2 (~28) + Pick 48(51) + Pick 52(56)
for
Collingwood:
36 + 38 + F3 (Tied to Richmond) ?

Essendon have some fairly highly rated Davey kids and maybe even an Alessio aswell to make points up for next year
Nah I think we'd take this deal. If anything this works better for us than the other deal I suggested.

We'd have Essendon future 2nd (28), 39 (40 before Darcy bid), Hawthorn future 3rd (41), Brisbane future 3rd (50) to move up the ladder.

We just need another 50 - 100 points to be able to trade out 39 too.
 

TheTassieHawk

Team Captain
Oct 12, 2019
385
286
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Not sure why we did the 55 for St Kilda's future 4th deal haha, because if we gave 58 instead, we would now have enough points to do the above trade.

On the pick index sheet picks 55 and 58 differ by 37 draft points.

A small bid deficit is anything less than 100 points. There is basically zero difference and negligible impact between a 9 point surplus and a 28 point deficit.
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
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On the pick index sheet picks 55 and 58 differ by 37 draft points.

A small bid deficit is anything less than 100 points. There is basically zero difference and negligible impact between a 9 point surplus and a 28 point deficit.
Yes but for the above trade proposal, we'd be unable to accept it due to a difference of LESS THAN 37 draft points.
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
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Would Collingwood just accept the deal and go into deficit by 28 points ?
No because our future 1st would drop, which could be the difference of going from pick 1/2 to pick 2/3.

And we saw the difference in value between picks in that range, even if you are just trying to move up by 1 single spot.
 

TheTassieHawk

Team Captain
Oct 12, 2019
385
286
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Hawthorn
No because our future 1st would drop, which could be the difference of going from pick 1/2 to pick 2/3.

And we saw the difference in value between picks in that range, even if you are just trying to move up by 1 single spot.

My understanding, which could be wrong, is that unless the deficit is 483 points or more then pick 1 remains pick 1 as it would still have more draft index points than pick 2 (2517 points).

Similarly (if correct) with a deficit of 282 points or less pick 2 remains pick 2.

Similarly (if correct) a deficit of 100 points would be the difference between pick 6 and 7 or 13 and 15, but a 28 point deficit would mean no adjustment in either case.

In the scheme of things a bottom 4 side winning a few games late in the season is likely to be more costly to their draft hand than a minor points index deficit.
 

Lings of Geelong

Debutant
Sep 16, 2021
62
83
Wollongong
AFL Club
Collingwood
My understanding, which could be wrong, is that unless the deficit is 483 points or more then pick 1 remains pick 1 as it would still have more draft index points than pick 2 (2517 points).

Similarly (if correct) with a deficit of 282 points or less pick 2 remains pick 2.

Similarly (if correct) a deficit of 100 points would be the difference between pick 6 and 7 or 13 and 15, but a 28 point deficit would mean no adjustment in either case.

In the scheme of things a bottom 4 side winning a few games late in the season is likely to be more costly to their draft hand than a minor points index deficit.
Any deficit results in a slide down the order. I think the best way to explain it is if you finish last but have a 1 point deficit, you have 2999 points which is not enough for Pick 1, so you move to Pick 2 (even though you have 482 points more than what is required for Pick 2).
 

TheTassieHawk

Team Captain
Oct 12, 2019
385
286
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Any deficit results in a slide down the order. I think the best way to explain it is if you finish last but have a 1 point deficit, you have 2999 points which is not enough for Pick 1, so you move to Pick 2 (even though you have 482 points more than what is required for Pick 2).

No worries, I stand corrected.

As such a risk the Pies would try to avoid in case of a downgrade of a top 5 pick, after that the impact would be relatively less.
 

perplexed

Club Legend
Nov 25, 2015
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Any deficit results in a slide down the order. I think the best way to explain it is if you finish last but have a 1 point deficit, you have 2999 points which is not enough for Pick 1, so you move to Pick 2 (even though you have 482 points more than what is required for Pick 2).
That's not what happened last year with the Freo deficit. It is as the other poster described. Collingwood shouldn't worry about a small deficit. If they manage 13th, they can afford a 100 point deficit without dropping from pick 6 to 7.
 

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Lore

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Dec 14, 2015
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Even Twomey wouldn’t claim he’s anywhere near the best judge of talent. That’s not his skill set. He’s a journo who networks.
You’re getting a very good player regardless of whether he’s ranked first or fourth.
Perhaps, but he does actually attend games and get to know the draft kids and their managers and coaches and such, often as 16/17 year olds even. His rankings would be based on that and the results of the draft combine as much as what he’s seen personally.

The phantom is messier than the rankings because it’s based on what recruiters are willing to tell Twomey directly and indirectly when the draft kids tell Twomey what they were told. Recruiters are less willing to tell their plans now that live trading is a thing.
 

Bay Pie

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Sep 28, 2006
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Lore, if you wanted an update on Lipinski file, he has a 3 year deal with Collingwood. He confirmed it in is introductory interview. 5 mins 30 sec into the Interview.
A trade proposal that me and Prochard123 have discussed which makes sense to me, i know he wants something slightly different but im not sure it works as much for either

Essendon:
F2 (~28) + Pick 48(51) + Pick 52(56)
for
Collingwood:
36 + 38 + F3 (Tied to Richmond) ?

Essendon have some fairly highly rated Davey kids and maybe even an Alessio as well to make points up for next year
I'd do Ess F2 + pick 51 for 36 + 38. Not sure about the F3 part a there's only 50-60 picks expected, so our left over picks won't be far off that anyway.

I'd be keen to retain our 2022 picks for a Brisbane 1st rounder trade next year.
 

Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
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Lore, if you wanted an update on Lipinski file, he has a 3 year deal with Collingwood. He confirmed it in is introductory interview. 5 mins 30 sec into the Interview.

I'd do Ess F2 + pick 51 for 36 + 38. Not sure about the F3 part a there's only 50-60 picks expected, so our left over picks won't be far off that anyway.

I'd be keen to retain our 2022 picks for a Brisbane 1st rounder trade next year.
There is no point us keeping pick 56 (it would become 48 after bids) so alot better than 60. But as i said were only very likely taking 3 kids and we need points for 3 father sons next year (Daveys, Alessio) so im only doing the trade if we give up pick 48 for a F3 tied to tigers
 

VinnieB

Club Legend
Oct 28, 2021
1,929
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Even Twomey wouldn’t claim he’s anywhere near the best judge of talent. That’s not his skill set. He’s a journo who networks.
You’re getting a very good player regardless of whether he’s ranked first or fourth.
No worse than the others. At least he follows the kids from the start and is far more credible. Unlike most commentators like Montagna who comes out making a statement based upon 2 weeks of highlights.
 

HFF

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Sep 25, 2006
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Defintally try and Improve those Picks


Happy to just take those picks considering we are 10 or so picks away now....and there’s surprises all over the place which ties into the theory that trading up is pointless now considering everyone is at a level pegging from exposure —so now it’s all speculative and where our recruiter like Hine needs to earn his money...this is where he needs to find us a player or two...
 

Orange crush

Club Legend
Aug 12, 2017
1,173
1,884
AFL Club
GWS
Given he was ranked either in the late 1st or 2nd at very most, I'd say so.

Was the highest ranked player still on the board at the time. Got some talent this kid.
No doubt he has talent but just not sure it’s a steal .... after everyone else had passed numerous times
 

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