Analysis Collingwood 2022 = Hawthorn 2018?

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samDD

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In 2018, Hawthorn crept into the top 4 on the back of winning 6 games decided by two goals or less.

In 2022, Collingwood have already won 7 games by two goals or less. Even more notably, 6 of those 7 wins were against the bottom 6.

Many would suggest Hawthorn were one of the worst teams to finish top 4 in recent memory, particularly with the benefit of hindsight, and seeing where they really were in the following years. Could the same thing happen with Collingwood?
 

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kaiserchief13

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Collingwood will have to make the top four first.

Port, Melbourne, Sydney and Carlton are next up. Will they win these games if they play like they did against Essendon, North, etc?
They'll probably have to go 3-1 at least over the last 4 to make it. Can't see it to be honest but if they do go 3-1 they'll deserve it
 

deck

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Yeah but if you continue to play like s**t in the next month, playing much better sides, well... that won't be beautiful now will it?
The beauty of football is that no matter whether your 1 point in front or 100 points in front at the siren. If you are in front you win.
 

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Dangerousfield

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OP correction, won 5 games by under a goal, another 3 by under two goals.

Given the number of goals Ginnivan has kicked by milking frees, if today's interpretation was in play for the whole season, how many of those games would the Pies have won?

But you can win every game of the year including the GF by one point and you're premiers. No one asked how much did you win by, just whether you got the four points.

Next month will show if Pies are deserving finalists, a couple of good tests to come. Pathetic 106 percent will hurt them in the run for final placings.
 

And_ROOS

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That was how long ago?

Do you think your form now is the same that it was several weeks ago?
Melbournes form is hardly anything to write home about since they are 3-3 since that Pies game, but against teams in the top 6 in that time they beat Brissie at the MCG where Brisbane is awful.

Carlton have been win/loss/win/loss since Rd10.

Power looked good against Geelong, but they are hugely inconsistent. Swans are the only team I am confident tipping to beat Collingwood.
 

beerbandit

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OP correction, won 5 games by under a goal, another 3 by under two goals.

Given the number of goals Ginnivan has kicked by milking frees, if today's interpretation was in play for the whole season, how many of those games would the Pies have won?

But you can win every game of the year including the GF by one point and you're premiers. No one asked how much did you win by, just whether you got the four points.

Next month will show if Pies are deserving finalists, a couple of good tests to come. Pathetic 106 percent will hurt them in the run for final placings.
If only he milked frees against your mob we would of won by 50 points and would be one less one goal win.

Say that fast.
 

beerbandit

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Collingwood have had an incredible run.

Pies supporters should just enjoy the fun and excitement of been a Collingwood supporter right now.

The results will look after themself.
Thanks for a sensible post.
 

beerbandit

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Melbournes form is hardly anything to write home about since they are 3-3 since that Pies game, but against teams in the top 6 in that time they beat Brissie at the MCG where Brisbane is awful.

Carlton have been win/loss/win/loss since Rd10.

Power looked good against Geelong, but they are hugely inconsistent. Swans are the only team I am confident tipping to beat Collingwood.
I agree. Pies (should) beat Port assuming cue might be in the rack.

Melb - 50/50 (pies have wood on them)
Syd - L (swans should win but Pies play very well interstate so don’t be surprised)
Carl - 50/50 (coin toss, maybe pies mentally stronger then Carlton)

Can’t see why Pies can’t finish top 4. And for all those saying Collingwood are shite and worst top 4 since Hawks 18, I bet they won’t be too confident coming up against them.
 

HairyO

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I agree. Pies (should) beat Port assuming cue might be in the rack.

Melb - 50/50 (pies have wood on them)
Syd - L (swans should win but Pies play very well interstate so don’t be surprised)
Carl - 50/50 (coin toss, maybe pies mentally stronger then Carlton)

Can’t see why Pies can’t finish top 4. And for all those saying Collingwood are shite and worst top 4 since Hawks 18, I bet they won’t be too confident coming up against them.

Carlton are still a chance to miss the 8. If they lose to Adelaide they could end up 9th.
 

And_ROOS

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I agree. Pies (should) beat Port assuming cue might be in the rack.

Melb - 50/50 (pies have wood on them)
Syd - L (swans should win but Pies play very well interstate so don’t be surprised)
Carl - 50/50 (coin toss, maybe pies mentally stronger then Carlton)

Can’t see why Pies can’t finish top 4. And for all those saying Collingwood are shite and worst top 4 since Hawks 18, I bet they won’t be too confident coming up against them.
If Port show up against Pies like they did Geelong, they are as good a chance as anyone of winning.
But there is a big gap between Ports best and their average efforts. If it was at AO I would have tipped Port.
 

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