Analysis Collingwood 2022 = Hawthorn 2018?

[SuperVolley11]

I don’t agree with you, and thought I’d call out the hilarious irony of your comment.

I obviously don’t think my footy club is an average side. Average sides don’t sit 3 games clear inside the top 8. The rule of thumb is you simply outscore your opposition on game day, so whether you do it in a shootout or not is fairly irrelevant.

I also have no issues with our forward line. Unlike Geelong, we aren’t reliant on 2-3 players to kick goals. Pies have 9 different double digit goal kickers vs Geelong’s 4. If we continue having multiple goal kickers each week, and we outscore the opposition, I’m happy.

I remember us having 10% more of a % than Geelong in 2011 - that didn’t win us the Grand Final against your mob that year.

I also love the fact you’re predicting Collingwood’s 2023 already too. Got lotto tickets you could share with me whilst I have you?

First off, google the meaning of irony.

Sometimes they do. Lets wait and see where they finish after the home and away season. Lets not forget the saints were 8-3 and 2 games clear in the 8 pre-bye. I’m not saying you need to play a shoot style, you just need to put teams away. Something Collingwood hasn’t been able to do this season consistently.

Not sure why you are using the arbitrary figure of double figure goals for the season as a measurement of a forward line. Wouldn’t the average score every week be a better reflection? I think it’s a bit of stretch to say a team relies on 3 forwards. Also they those 3 forwards didn’t really hit the scoreboard in Geelong’s win over Melbourne.

That is true, but Geelong % of 157 would be enough to the highest in majority of seasons. Both teams were that far ahead of everyone else. The pies just couldn’t beat that 2011 cats side.

You asked me for my opinion of the pies. Don’t ask for my opinion then get all huffy and puffy when I give it.

 

[PyrrhicVic]

The difference is 2018 actually had elite teams, Richmond were head and shoulders above everyone.

2022 is a cesspit, Geelong are being carried by the corpses of Selwood and Hawkins whilst Melbourne and Brisbane are seriously inconsistent.

Anyone can win it this year.

 

[PieLebo87]

First off, google the meaning of irony.

Sometimes they do. Lets wait and see where they finish after the home and away season. Lets not forget the saints were 8-3 and 2 games clear in the 8 pre-bye. I’m not saying you need to play a shoot style, you just need to put teams away. Something Collingwood hasn’t been able to do this season consistently.

Not sure why you are using the arbitrary figure of double figure goals for the season as a measurement of a forward line. Wouldn’t the average score every week be a better reflection? I think it’s a bit of stretch to say a team relies on 3 forwards. Also they those 3 forwards didn’t really hit the scoreboard in Geelong’s win over Melbourne.

That is true, but Geelong % of 157 would be enough to the highest in majority of seasons. Both teams were that far ahead of everyone else. The pies just couldn’t beat that 2011 cats side.

You asked me for my opinion of the pies. Don’t ask for my opinion then get all huffy and puffy when I give it.

You’re a fiesty one, aren’t you? Loved the Google line.

To put it simply, just so you understand, it’s ironic you talking about aging stars, when pretty much 3/4 of the players that have you in first place won’t be around in 24 months time, and you still don’t have a flag to show for it in the last 10 years of heavy recruiting/trading.

You’re the one who has an issue with our forward line. I personally don’t, and addressed why. I just chose to point out that I’d be more concerned if two players in my side attributed to almost 40% of the whole team’s 2022 score. If one/or both go down, you’d be in big trouble.

Pies have a different set up, and we can rely on any number of different forwards to bob up and score goals. It worked a charm for us in 2010 where we had 14 double digit goal scorers with the highest kicking 41 goals. Our forward line this year is fine. We’ve kicked 12 x2, 13 and 14 goals against each of the top 4 sides this year with a couple of those in wet conditions.

Lastly, what is it with softies who like to bag out other teams, call it their opinion, then crack the sads when someone argues back? You don’t rate Collingwood and it hurts your feelings if I respond back about it?

 

[SuperVolley11]

You’re a fiesty one, aren’t you? Loved the Google line.

To put it simply, just so you understand, it’s ironic you talking about aging stars, when pretty much 3/4 of the players that have you in first place won’t be around in 24 months time, and you still don’t have a flag to show for it in the last 10 years of heavy recruiting/trading.

You’re the one who has an issue with our forward line. I personally don’t, and addressed why. I just chose to point out that I’d be more concerned if two players in my side attributed to almost 40% of the whole team’s 2022 score. If one/or both go down, you’d be in big trouble.

Pies have a different set up, and we can rely on any number of different forwards to bob up and score goals. It worked a charm for us in 2010 where we had 14 double digit goal scorers with the highest kicking 41 goals. Our forward line this year is fine. We’ve kicked 12 x2, 13 and 14 goals against each of the top 4 sides this year with a couple of those in wet conditions.

Lastly, what is it with softies who like to bag out other teams, call it their opinion, then crack the sads when someone argues back? You don’t rate Collingwood and it hurts your feelings if I respond back about it?

It would only be ironic if I was the list manager of Geelong.

SDK, Henry, Stewart, Kolo, Z Guthrie, O’Connor, so basically geelongs starting back line then add Cameron, Close, Stengle, Atkins, Holmes, Atkins, Miers, Parfit and Narkle. Will all be playing round 1 2024. So it’s closer to 1/4 then 3/4 will be done either the end of this year or next.

If any team, ANY, team were to lose their best two forwards they would struggle. You think the pies are immune to that?

2010 You have 3 go 30+ and 9 go 20+ Right now the pies are in target for 3 30+ and 5 20+. That’s a bit of a difference. Geelong are on target for 4 go 20+ just because you like arbitrary figures.

Again with going the person and not the statement. I’m not “bagging out” the pies. I’m just stating my opinion (which you asked for) with some data to back it up. Also I haven’t cracked the sads. You haven’t really argued, you have sorta deflected to Geelong and then used footy from 12 years ago as a defense.

Forwards who kick a lot of goals win flags. Pies don’t have that.

 

[SuperVolley11]

There is a theory or study done across a lot of sports that when teams win a lot of close games in one season, they are more likely to be worse the following year. I remember it, because did it in about 2014? They spoke about it on SEN. I’m still trying to google it.

Stats Insider: How AFL team performance in close games can predict next season’s record

Lady luck is football’s secret ingredient

www.google.com

 

[Jen2310]

Who's calling them baby pies?

Not once, until now have I seen them called that.

Early in the season it was mentioned a fair bit.
3/4 of our list are 21 or under. We tend to play about 6-7 kids (or those inexperienced) on a weekly basis with 30 games or less.
On the weekend.
Ginni, Naicos, McCreery. Bianco, Johnson, Murphy, Carmichael. This is even without Henry.
They are getting games into kids to set them up for when the older players retire, so we dont fall into a hole.

Fair few waiting in the wings as they develop (Poulter, Macrae, Begg, McMahon, Kelly, Harrison, Murley, Draper, Ruscoe)

So while we play a pretty strong core. The list in general is young.

 

[terrybull]

Does any Magpie fan even care?
I mean at the start of the year they were one of the favorites to win the woodenspoon. Just making the Finals is an over achievement they will be proud of. If they make the top 4 then good on them - what’s the point of criticizing?

I certainly paid no attention to the people that wrote Richmond 2017 was the weakest Premiers in the AFL era. Rather that then the strongest team that could not capture a flag.

 

[samDD]

That Hawthorn 2018 Semi final team had many players in their prime and not many 1st/2nd year players with under 20 games. The Pies play 5-6 a game with other banging on the door from the VFL team.

The Hawks also traded young talent like Burton to get in experienced players from other clubs like Wingard, and then brought in players recovering from injury like O’Meara, Scully, Paton who, apart from O’Meara haven’t really worked out. Even O’Meara probably hasn’t reached the level he showed he could him pre-injury.

All of these were after 2018.

 

[takethepowerback]

I think the Pies will go alright in finals..weirdly wouldn't mind them too much too..if degoey didn't play for them

 

[KermitJagger]

Reckon the Hawks deserved to be there more in 2018 than the pies do this year, and if 2019 hadn't started with Tom Mitchell missing a year to a broken leg I think the next couple of seasons could have played out differently.

That said, their season this year reminds me more of our 2016 season. A lot of close finishes with the results always seeming to go our way, until finals. That step up in intensity and usual change in umpiring mentality come finals meant we were on the other side of a close game for the first time that year. That's the risk, probability turns against you at some point.

 

[PieLebo87]

Does any Magpie fan even care?
I mean at the start of the year they were one of the favorites to win the woodenspoon. Just making the Finals is an over achievement they will be proud of. If they make the top 4 then good on them - what’s the point of criticizing?

I certainly paid no attention to the people that wrote Richmond 2017 was the weakest Premiers in the AFL era. Rather that then the strongest team that could not capture a flag.

Exactly right - it’s been an unexpected thrill for Pies fans how the team has fared this season. We’re simply enjoying the ride.

It’s funny seeing so many of the usual suspects clutching at straws to try and shoot the Pies down in so many weird ways because they can’t really critique the on-field performance/form. It’s almost like it’s unacceptable for Collingwood to be doing well and there’s gotta be a way we have to predict their downfall. You’d be familiar with it as a Richmond supporter.

Finals would’ve been an optimistic goal in pre-season, we’ll take that. Now we’re in top 4 calculations so a new optimistic goal would be one finals win. We do that, it’s a monumental achievement by Fly Macrae in his first season. Regardless, everything from here on in is really just icing on the cake of an already successful first season for the Pies under a new regime.

 

[NetworkNerd]

What can hurt the pies is winning the next 2 then dropping the last 2 games. Even if they stay in 4th spot they will find it tough to beat Geelong at the MCG then follow it up against a Carlton/Bulldogs type at the MCG. Will still be a good year overall but straight sets exits always leave a bad taste

 

[PieLebo87]

It would only be ironic if I was the list manager of Geelong.

SDK, Henry, Stewart, Kolo, Z Guthrie, O’Connor, so basically geelongs starting back line then add Cameron, Close, Stengle, Atkins, Holmes, Atkins, Miers, Parfit and Narkle. Will all be playing round 1 2024. So it’s closer to 1/4 then 3/4 will be done either the end of this year or next.

If any team, ANY, team were to lose their best two forwards they would struggle. You think the pies are immune to that?

2010 You have 3 go 30+ and 9 go 20+ Right now the pies are in target for 3 30+ and 5 20+. That’s a bit of a difference. Geelong are on target for 4 go 20+ just because you like arbitrary figures.

Again with going the person and not the statement. I’m not “bagging out” the pies. I’m just stating my opinion (which you asked for) with some data to back it up. Also I haven’t cracked the sads. You haven’t really argued, you have sorta deflected to Geelong and then used footy from 12 years ago as a defense.

Forwards who kick a lot of goals win flags. Pies don’t have that.

Your concern about our scoring powers is nothing for us to worry about. We’ve played 5 of the last 9 in wet/torrential conditions, explaining so many close games, and a lack of 100 point scores. In saying that, we’ve cracked 80 points in 6 of those 9 games.

Prior to that, in the first 9 rounds, we dipped below 80 twice, and scored over 100 3 times.

Pies are far more immune to losing their two best forwards compared to Geelong. Our highest goal kicker has kicked 8 goals in the last 5 games, 2nd highest goal kicker has kicked 1 goal in 2 weeks and our 3rd highest is currently having a spell in the VFL. (with his replacement kicking 3 in the first quarter on the weekend)

I still don’t rate our flag chances, especially compared to Geelong’s, but it wouldn’t be undeserved if the Pies pull off a fairytale in 2022. ‘Average sides’ don’t do what the Pies have done in 2022, so your opinion of the Pies is wrong.

 

[Fadge]

What can hurt the pies is winning the next 2 then dropping the last 2 games. Even if they stay in 4th spot they will find it tough to beat Geelong at the MCG then follow it up against a Carlton/Bulldogs type at the MCG. Will still be a good year overall but straight sets exits always leave a bad taste

The good thing is that when talking probabilities, it is significantly more likely that a top 4 team wins through to the Preliminary Final than going out in straight sets.

By a factor of about 4 or 5...

 

[Shade]

What can hurt the pies is winning the next 2 then dropping the last 2 games. Even if they stay in 4th spot they will find it tough to beat Geelong at the MCG then follow it up against a Carlton/Bulldogs type at the MCG. Will still be a good year overall but straight sets exits always leave a bad taste

Geelong know all about straight set exits

 

[Sector 7G]

The good thing is that when talking probabilities, it is significantly more likely that a top 4 team wins through to the Preliminary Final than going out in straight sets.

By a factor of about 4 or 5...

I wonder how that probability changes when the top 4 side has a lower percentage than than sides 5-8. I think that if the Pies make the top 4 with their percentage it would be an outlier.

 

[Sector 7G]

Stats Insider: How AFL team performance in close games can predict next season’s record

Lady luck is football’s secret ingredient

www.google.com

Pretty superficial analysis. How teams performed in 2014 reflected a different outcome in 2015. Flipped a head in 2014 got a tails in 2015 so therefore due for a head in 2016 type of depth here.

 

[Fadge]

I wonder how that probability changes when the top 4 side has a lower percentage than than sides 5-8. I think that if the Pies make the top 4 with their percentage it would be an outlier.

Given the Pies have already beaten Freo (in WA) and Carlton, and are yet to play Sydney, suggest they match up pretty well against the sides in the bottom half of the top 8.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Given the Pies have already beaten Freo (in WA) and Carlton, and are yet to play Sydney, suggest they match up pretty well against the sides in the bottom half of the top 8.

You forget Carlton had 1/2 their side out.

 

[adammania9]

You forget Carlton had 1/2 their side out.

They’d be top of the ladder if Cuningham and Marchbank played more games

 

[PieLebo87]

I wonder how that probability changes when the top 4 side has a lower percentage than than sides 5-8. I think that if the Pies make the top 4 with their percentage it would be an outlier.

I thought I’d try and read up and understand as much as possible around Collingwood’s close finishes/lower % and have found they did play 5 of their last 9 wins in wet/torrential conditions which explains the close margins/lower %.

What you ask is a completely different though and what that means for Collingwood in September. Not excusing the low percentage, but definitely something I factor in when looking at the close margins/low %.

 

[Forward Press]

Even if they may indeed be the luckiest or worst or umpire-blessed 13-5 side in history - they are still 13-5. A good run in the last four games could see them with a top 4 finish, and once you have that double chance who knows what will pan out in September.

Do people prefer being the unluckiest or best or umpire-cursed 5-13 side in history?

 

[Sector 7G]

Given the Pies have already beaten Freo (in WA) and Carlton, and are yet to play Sydney, suggest they match up pretty well against the sides in the bottom half of the top 8.

Convenient leaving out the loss to the Bulldogs and Tigers the other likely members of the 8. Didn't measure up so well on either of them

 

[Sector 7G]

I thought I’d try and read up and understand as much as possible around Collingwood’s close finishes/lower % and have found they did play 5 of their last 9 wins in wet/torrential conditions which explains the close margins/lower %.

What you ask is a completely different though and what that means for Collingwood in September. Not excusing the low percentage, but definitely something I factor in when looking at the close margins/low %.

Wet weather tends to mean lower scores but the percentage difference between sides is not necessarily lower. Pretty sure your win against Freo was in the wet when yo were close to double their score.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Wet weather tends to mean lower scores but the percentage difference between sides is not necessarily lower. Pretty sure your win against Freo was in the wet when yo were close to double their score.

The truth is, Collingwood are not that good, you know that, I know that.

Any team that has lost to Collingwood this year, I would say are Joking if they think they are a chance.