Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

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Sep 22, 2010
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Collingwood Almanac 2016:


Player value rankings:

--Untouchable--

1. Brodie Grundy: A best five ruckman in the competition today and the best ruckman in the game under the age of 24.

2. Darcy Moore: Still a developing key forward, but a rapidly improving player and has the mix of attributes to become a best five key forward in the game if he can stay relatively healthy throughout his career.

3. Adam Treloar: Treloar is a best 20 midfielder in the game and has the ability to push up towards the top 10 midfielders in the game in time. With Swan retired Treloar is the clear second best midfielder on the list today.

4. Scott Pendlebury: Still the best and most valuable player on the clubs list. Remains a clear best five midfielder in the game.

5. Jordan De Goey: De Goey has the scope post-Pendlebury to become the clubs best midfielder. He just needs more minutes through the midfield. Expect a breakout 2017 season if he gets the midfield minutes and improves his weekly preparation for games.

6. Steele Sidebottom: After Pendlebury and Treloar, Sidebottom is the clubs next best midfielder. He is made even more valuable due to his durability and ability to perform in big games.

7. Taylor Adams: Continuing to step up as a midfielder and perform through the midfield and as required down back. Can be the clubs next captain post-Pendlebury.

8. Ben Reid: Still clearly the clubs best key defender and one of the better key defenders in the competition with durability the only question.

9. Travis Cloke: Unimpressive and seemingly uninspired these past few seasons. Cloke’s internal value should remain high given he has been consistently durable. His father’s longevity (playing 22 games in his final year as a 36-year-old) may be an insight into how long Travis can last if his mental drive remains. His leadership value is also significant to a young Moore and a developing Mason Cox with Cloke as good as any to learn the craft of contested marking and key forward play from. In saying all this, Cloke’s hands are not what they used to be, no longer able to squeeze the air out of the ball when taking a grab. Given this a revised expectation of Cloke to something along the lines of 220 disposals, 110 marks (30 contested marks) and 30 goals per season is necessary and a more realistic, maintainable expectation for Cloke over coming seasons. With these projected, realistic numbers, I would not trade Cloke with Collingwood lacking after Moore a second quality key forward. Cloke at CHF achieving these numbers would be more than adequate and better than any other alternative on the clubs list over the medium term.

10. Jamie Elliott: A best 20 general forward in the competition. Just needs to get his body back to full health in 2017.

11. Marley Williams: Has struggled this year with injuries but can rebound and get back to his best in 2017. Has such a rare power over the ball at ground level that suggests that he can achieve success back, forward or through the midfield depending on where we want to utilise him.

12. Jeremy Howe: High flyer who has proven an excellent get for Collingwood. Has been very effective as an intercept marking back flanker in a backline filled with few others who can intercept. In the air Howe reads it early, going after marks like a forward which is what makes him so effective in his role down back. Someone to keep down back, though able as required to push forward or up onto a wing as required.

13. Travis Varcoe: A major difference maker with his work rate and chasing and pressuring ability often game changing.

14. Alex Fasolo: More mature, playing productive footy up forward again and hitting the scoreboard in a big way.

15. Dane Swan: Was still one of club’s best midfielders and given his ability at stoppages and his still effortless ability to find the footy and kick goals through the midfield he retires as still one of the club’s better players.

--Required players--

16. Tom Langdon: Among the more productive general backmen and other than Howe is the clubs other proven intercepting backman. Another who with injury has seen his season end prematurely but can next season get back to being an effective interceptor down back. He just needs to improve his work by foot off half back to become an untouchable.

17. Mason Cox: Improving rapidly and is already a capable tap ruckman and a threat inside the forward 50m with the quality of his bodywork, hands overhead and cleanness below his knees. Will only get better.

18. Jarrod Witts: Improving tap ruckman who needs to rediscover hard edge, improve his followup work and continue to improve forward of centre. Tap work has improved and finished the season strongly. Ideal depth ruckman with best 22 ability.

19. Nathan Brown: Most reliable key defender on the list and can be counted on to negate the influence of the oppositions most damaging forward each week.

20. Matthew Scharenberg: Injuries have been the issue with Scharenberg but if he gets his body right he can be a long term best 22 component down back given how effective he was in his small taste at the end of 2015.

21. Brayden Maynard: Physical backman who has a crack and has made strong process over the course of the season at AFL level. Will need to continue working on consistency of disposal by foot.

22. Jack Crisp: Improvement in 2016 has halted but has all the attributes to continue his improvement to become a more prominent midfielder and more effective elsewhere around the ground.

23. Tim Broomhead: The clubs best kick into the forward 50m from a forward flank. Has the scope given his combination of attributes to continue improving and establish himself long term as a best 22 player. Needs to stay healthy.

24. Jackson Ramsay: Capable shutdown backman who has improved consistency by foot. Needs a clean injury run.

25. Jonathon Marsh: Can run and take intercept marks with play starting to translate to AFL standard play. Needs to continue working to clean up footskills.

26. Jack Frost: Able to shut down his opponents and go third man up for the spoil but needs to start taking some intercept marks and add some rebounding element to his game to be best 22.

27. James Aish: A wildcard who could go either way and still requires a clear best position. Start to the season was poor but late in the season has shown improvement with his work overhead particularly promising.

28. Tom Phillips: Showing signs at AFL level and will get better with the more games he gets in the 1s.

29. Ben Crocker: Medium marking forward who didn’t look out of his depth during taste at AFL level. His challenge will be the depth of similar marking forwards ahead of him.

30. Rupert Wills: Has shown promise late season at AFL level with his tackling and contested ball winning good. Will need to take stoppage work and contested ball winning from good to dominant and become more consistent by foot to be a best 22 player but has the scope to get there.

--Available for the right price--

31. Levi Greenwood: Strong bodied midfielder who wins the contested ball and has the ability to go head to head with the oppositions better midfielders. He also showed some signs forward of centre and a willingness to fly for marks. Footskills remain an issue along with a glut of too many similar midfielders.

32. Jarryd Blair: Can tackle, pressure, win the ground ball but scoreboard impact not enough for a forward and doesn’t find enough footy to play as a regular midfielder. Only serviceable and mostly used because the club lack a high quality crumbing small forward who can bring the pressure inside the forward 50m.

33. Josh Smith: A real trier with great work rate who can find the footy on the outside but lacking the hurt factor for an outside player to be a best 22 player.

34. Ben Sinclair: Can provide some run from defence and competes well, footskills less inconsistent than they once were. Serviceable over the second half of the season. Needs to stay healthy.

--Available for as little as a small pick upgrade--

35. Adam Oxley: Has shown late season promise in the front half in the VFL. Has the footskills to be useful forward, back or on a wing but is depth rather than best 22.

36. Tyson Goldsack: Can play a role and is a great pressure player but is not a rebounder or strong enough in the 1v1 contests.

37. Brayden Sier: A long way off being a best 22 player at this stage with his production not nearly up to AFL standard at this point or even VFL standard at the current time. Has to be valued because of his height and size. Reports suggest he’ll put in the work so there is something to work with, but he’ll need to improve rapidly to remain with the club beyond season 2017.

38. Alan Toovey: Servicable stopper who can still limit the influence of opponents and hold his own in the 1v1 contests but has lost a step of speed and is no threat to rebound.

39. Jesse White: Has been again only serviceable up forward and it’s a concern he has been required to play up forward again this season at AFL level. I liked the look of White down back over the early portion of the season and feel that is his better position, with his production and rebound from defence encouraging at VFL level. Would like to see White tried again down back in 2017 assuming retained.

40. Corey Gault: Hit the scoreboard in bunches during the preseason but form has not continued into the season proper. Depth only player.

41. Lachlan Keeffe: With what will be two years out of the game Keeffe is a wildcard. He has incredible height for a key defender, can take some intercept marks and by foot is also capable but conditioning and strength with the time out of the game are question marks.

42. Josh Thomas: With two years out of the game it is unclear what kind of condition Thomas comes back in. Lacked the endurance and footskills when he last played so with two years out of the game it is difficult to see how any of that has changed.

43. Matthew Goodyear: Has above average pace and is while still inconsistent starting to find more of the footy at VFL level. Lacks composure and execution by foot.

44. Brent Macaffer: Puts in the work on the track but can’t win enough of the ball or provide enough scoreboard impact to be worth giving games to at AFL level. His value is his work ethic, leadership and example on the training track. Would be great to have playing for the VFL side or potentially as a development coach if he has that ambition.

45. Tim Golds: Allergic to winning the contested footy and not damaging enough for someone so outside. You can’t carry guys on a team list at his age who aren’t winning enough of the footy and having no meaningful impact per possession.

46. Darrean Wyatt: Showed some glimpses of promise early season in the VFL but remains a long way away and a development project. Given age is too far back.
 
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Player preference to play list:

--Walkup starts--

1. Scott Pendlebury

2. Adam Treloar

3. Dane Swan

4. Brodie Grundy

5. Steele Sidebottom

6. Ben Reid

7. Travis Cloke

8. Taylor Adams

9. Travis Varcoe

10. Jeremy Howe

11. Jamie Elliott

12. Darcy Moore

13. Marley Williams

14. Alex Fasolo

15. Tom Langdon

16. Jordan De Goey

17. Nathan Brown

--Best 22 quality--

18. Tim Broomhead

19. Matthew Scharenberg

20. Jack Crisp

21. Jackson Ramsay

22. Brayden Maynard

23. Mason Cox

24. Jarrod Witts

25. Rupert Wills

26. Levi Greenwood

27. Jonathon Marsh

28. Jack Frost

29. James Aish

30. Tom Phillips

31. Ben Crocker

--Worthwhile depth--

32. Jarryd Blair

33. Ben Sinclair

34. Josh Smith

35. Tyson Goldsack

36. Alan Toovey

37. Adam Oxley

38. Jesse White

39. Lachlan Keeffe

40. Josh Thomas

41. Corey Gault

--Only appropriate for VFL selection--

42. Brent Macaffer

43. Tim Golds

44. Matthew Goodyear

45. Darrean Wyatt

46. Brayden Sier



Fully healthy best 22 today:
B: Matthew Scharenberg Nathan Brown Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon Ben Reid Jeremy Howe
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Scott Pendlebury Taylor Adams
HF: Travis Varcoe Travis Cloke Tim Broomhead
F: Alex Fasolo Darcy Moore Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Adam Treloar Dane Swan
BENCH: Jordan De Goey Jack Crisp Jackson Ramsay Brayden Maynard
EMG: Mason Cox Jarrod Witts Rupert Wills
Also worth giving regular games to: Levi Greenwood Jonathon Marsh Jack Frost James Aish Tom Phillips Ben Crocker
Depth: Jarryd Blair Ben Sinclair Josh Smith Tyson Goldsack Alan Toovey Adam Oxley Lachlan Keeffe Jesse White Josh Thomas Corey Gault
Not suitable for AFL play this year: Brent Macaffer Matthew Goodyear Tim Golds Darrean Wyatt Brayden Sier
 
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Recommended list changes 2016:
Delist/trade: Brent Macaffer Matthew Goodyear Jesse White Alan Toovey Tyson Goldsack
Rookie delist: Tim Golds Josh Thomas Corey Gault Lachlan Keeffe Darrean Wyatt
On the trade table: Jarryd Blair Josh Smith Ben Sinclair Adam Oxley Levi Greenwood


How our list stacks up:
Excellent list depth in most positions and injury coverage for the most part. The quality of youth is among the best few in the competition giving the club future premiership chances. Where the club is lacking is in star power, quality of key position players and outside hurt factor with little in terms of pace and footskills squad-wide.


Offseason:

Trade notes:

Given the Treloar trade which led to the moving of the clubs 2015 and 2016 first round selections there will be little to offer up in trade scenarios unless we are prepared to shop some of our players. Given this free agency is the most logical route towards getting better for the most part.

List needs:

The largest and most significant list need is the need for veteran leadership. On the Collingwood list there is Pendlebury with Taylor Adams a developing leader. I don’t believe it coincidence that in 2007 when the club had Buckley/Clement/Rocca/Burns etc and in 2010 when the club had Maxwell/Ball/Pendlebury etc that the club’s youth talent progressed furthest whereas these past few seasons with Pendlebury as that main leader now that Maxwell and Ball have both retired, the progress of the player development on our list has slowed significantly.

A second elite, young key forward is needed to partner with Moore. Moore is one long term key forward. Then Cox is also proving effective up forward, but Cox at 211cm likely will be best utilised as the relieving ruckman who splits his time between playing forward and through the ruck. A similar argument could be made of Moore, who also could prove most effective as a key forward who relieves through the ruck. Given this a dominant key forward is certainly required to compliment Moore and Cox long term.

A young elite key defender to take over once Brown and Reid retire is also a need with both Brown and Reid over 25.

A general backmen who can use the ball out of the back half by foot and offer rebound are missing with too many stoppers and not rebounders down back, though the list addition of Howe and the return of Scharenberg from injury in 2017 should see the club intercepting more effectively which is a step in the right direction.

On a wing a high production, elite speed/endurance runner with damaging footskills is required to improve the inside/outside balance, with not enough outside hurt-factor offensively on our list.

A small crumbing forward who offers heavy scoreboard impact and tackling pressure is a missing component in the front half, as a necessary component to compliment the glut of all the small and medium marking forwards.

A dominating grunt player at stoppages is missing – think Matt Priddis or Josh Kennedy level performance, of that type.
 
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Draft targets:

Willem Drew: A 188cm inside midfielder is in my view the best pure contested ball winner and tackler in this draft class and has all the intangibles is in my view the most fierce and impactful junior footballer and someone you’d want on your side of the field. He is expected to go somewhere in the second or third round and looms in my view as a strong value selection who can be a difference maker at stoppages. Also importantly he athletically is good by position, has clean hands, can take a mark overhead, hit the scoreboard and can push forward or back as required.

Benjamin Ronke: Top age midfielder/forward who is an excellent contested ball winner with excellent speed and leaping ability. He is a high impact player who has had a strong season in the TAC Cup and appears a very developable player. If there is in the second round would be a great get, outstanding get if still there in third round.

Shai Bolton: Damaging small forward with excellent pace, agility and hurt factor who offers heavy scoreboard impact. If available in the second round would be a good value choice as a smaller ground level player and excellent list fit. Suited to playing mostly off half forward and can push deeper.

Griffin Logue: As a key defender or tall midfielder Logue at 193cm, 92kg has good strength, explosiveness and performances this year through the WALF at League level, standing up well. If there in the second round is a worthwhile consideration.

Brennan Cox: Best key defender during the Under 18 championships and at 194cm, 90kg is suitable. Excellent athlete who is good in the 1v1 contests and also is an excellent intercept mark. Has played much of his junior footy as a forward but if picked would be best suited in defence. Good option second or third round if there.

Cedric Cox: Top age midfielder/forward who is a possible consideration in the second or third round as an outside linebreaker who can use the ball well. Not much of a ball winner, but may be able to do damage and have an influence on a good team.

William Hayward: Medium forward who had a whopping finals series with 10 goals and 4 goals in his last two finals, in games where he was arguably the best player on his team. Strong overhead with ability on the lead, leaping for the mark and one on one. Also a good contested ball winner who wins the ground balls cleanly and is a major threat anywhere near goal.

Lachlan Tiziani: Top age medium forward with a TAC Cup best four goal average since the middle of June. Good overhead and at ground level and has excellent goalsense. Good choice late draft.

Esava Ratugolea: 194cm, 95kg key forward with all the intangibles. He is an excellent athlete with his speed, good leap, size, strength and agility. He can take an athletic grab overhead and attacks every contest at full bore. He also had an eight goal game in the TAC Cup. What I most like though is his hardness at the footy and the way he puts his body on the line. He hunts the footy and seems to have a real hunger to him to get better and have an impact on games. Very much a development project but if in the third round or later, I like the value he presents as one of the few potentially developable key forwards in this draft class.

Lachlan Walker: Top age, 188cm midfielder who finds and wins the footy in bunches inside and outside but also uses the ball precisely and moves well. If available late/rookie would be a strong value choice.

Brodie Romensky: 189cm midfielder/back flanker who finds the ball in bunches, moves through traffic easily and uses the ball precisely and can intercept off half back. If available late/rookie is a bargain selection.

Kayle Kirby: 181cm, 86kg forward who has had a strong season in the TAC Cup and kicked nine goals from two VFL games. Powerful forward with some explosiveness and good goal sense. If available mid-late draft would be a suitable choice.

Liam Ryan: WAFL forward who will be 20 at the start of next season. He is a high flying 184cm forward has kicked 39 goals from 15 League games and has taken some impressive aerial marks i50. Late or rookie draft would be a suitable choice.

Dan Allsop: The answer to the clubs small forward query (175cm, 64kg) and should be there late draft and more likely than not will be there as a rookie. Excellent crumber. Always first to the ground balls. Clean, one touch and has a rare balance and ball control. Never rushed and never gets caught with the ball, such is his evasiveness and composure with ball in hand. Has good speed. Very good tackling and pressuring forward. He just needs to become a more consistent finisher in front of goal and improve his strength so that he doesn’t get pushed off the footy as he can at the present time.

Brett Eddy: Best key forward not in the AFL and it’s his time to receive an opportunity. Will be there in the rookie draft and would be an upgrade on Jesse White certainly as a depth key forward who can step in for Moore as required or play as a regular in his own right if Cloke gets traded.

Jye Bolton: Should never have been delisted during his first tenure on Collingwood’s rookie list and is starring in the WAFL through the midfield. As a midfielder inside or outside, Bolton is an ideal immediate option as a rookie who can offer good depth and if there are injuries push for a best 22 position ahead of some of the club’s other midfielders.

Nick Dodge: Back flanker and forward from Tasmania who won’t get drafted but has excellent acceleration, ground ball winning ability and has shown promise these past two seasons.

Ben Long: Top ager who has shown some signs down back during the U18 championships shutting down players and providing some rebound, while providing some spark up forward.


Possible father son choices:

Callum Brown: 177cm, 69kg. Excellent accumulator who has a real hunger for the footy. Has some quickness. Can play both through the midfield and up forward. Just lacks consistency by foot.

Josh Daicos: 178cm, 69kg. Not a high volume ball winner and not a particularly strong contested ball winner. What he does have is class and evasiveness. He can sidestep, doesn’t get caught with the ball, has some pace and is a good kick.

In both cases I’d be open to nominating them. My recommendation would be to spend no more than a 3rd round pick on either (which may not be enough to get them with, but with some others presenting value that would be what I’d personally be willing to spend for either of them).


My preferred draft:

2nd round: Willem Drew (inside mid)

3rd round: William Hayward (med fwd)

4th round: Benjamin Ronke (inside mid/fwd)

Rookie draft 1st round: Lachlan Tizinai (med fwd)

Rookie draft 2nd round: Dan Allsop (small fwd)

Rookie draft 3rd round: Brett Eddy (mature age key forward)
 
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Free agency targets:

Brent Harvey: An absolutely must get if he wants to go around again. He is the best kick inside 50m and decision maker under pressure in the game and still has his pace. He remains a best 40 player in the competition in my view and on quality of play would be a best five on list standard player. Given Collingwood’s inability to keep players durable long term the club’s conditioning staff could learn a lot from him and given all the inside players but lack of outside players and ground level forwards Harvey can add a lot. Harvey keeps his body in tip top shape and works harder than just about anyone, and has only twice since 1998 had less than 20 games in a season which speaks to his durability and commitment to keeping in the best possible shape. He would also from a leadership perspective be a great player for all to learn off.

Corey Enright: If Geelong don’t offer Enright a contract, he is a must get for Collingwood. Still the best general backman in the game and his ability to intercept and use the ball out of the back half while still being good enough to contain his opponent is something we need. Enright on Collingwood’s list would instantly become the clubs best backman and would be an instant best five on list standard player and an important list addition from a leadership perspective. Enright not only still can play but also still has the durability, not dropping below 21 games played since 2005.

Matthew Boyd: Boyd this season has been one the games better general backman, intercepting and using the ball to a high level out of the back half. Boyd would be an instant best 10 on list standard player and add substantial leadership to the list. Will need some managing, but durability has been over the journey excellent.

Daniel Wells: Being an unrestricted free agent is gettable. He offers the speed and skill that the club are lacking and is a natural list fit through the midfield and rotating forward. Would be a top 10 on list quality player.

Scott Thompson: If not signed by Adelaide would be an excellent get through the midfield. Thompson would be a starting onballer as one of the clubs very best stoppage players. Would be a best 10 on list standard player. Thompson takes pride in his body and keeps it in tip top condition, and has maintained excellent durability over a long time not playing less than 19 games since 2004. From a leadership and example perspective he would also be a terrific get.

Tom Lonergan: Still one of the best key defenders in the game, beating his opponent seemingly every week while being less of a liability down back relative to Brown and Frost as a more able intercepter. Would be a best 10 on list standard addition.

Jimmy Bartel: Has had yet another productive season. Can play anywhere and delivers in the big moments in the big games. Would be a best 15 on list standard performer still. Good leader who brings important experience and versatility to a team lacking both. Only the one season of less than 20 games since 2005 is a big tick for durability.

Nick Dal Santo: Has remained productive and effective with his ball use again this season. Durability remains excellent having only dropped below 22 games in one season since 2004. Also offers versatility to play midfield, back or forward as required. Would be a best 15 on list standard performer.

Sean Dempster: Still a very good role playing general backman who can play tall or small, shutdown opponents and offer some rebound when given the freedom to. Would be a best 15 on list standard player.

Sam Fisher: Still a highly effective key defender and would be a best 15 on list standard player. Only query is substandard durability having not played more than 18 games since 2011. Could either compliment Reid or be someone who can step in, in the place of Reid if unavailable for selection and play a good variety of footy.

Chris Mayne: Medium forward who leads up well and offers good pressure by position and could fit as a something like a short-medium term Cloke replacement. He has the game to be a best 18 on list standard player and a good component to the team without being a standout.

Ricky Henderson: Tall, rebounding backman who has improved with age. Not a clear best 22 player, but a likely best 22 player who would be well in the mix and could be a good get who can make a difference with his production and long kicking but reliable kicking from half back a feature of his game and something Collingwood need more of with so many conservative ball users down back.

Dennis Armfield: Has some Travis Varcoe to him with his pace and exciting chase down tackling ability. Not a certain best 22 player, but an 18-25 on list type who offers value due to still having his pace and being able to offer good forward pressure.

Jack Grimes: A still productive back flanker/wing who was once co-captain of Melbourne. Grimes’ value to the club is the leadership and stability he can provide down back which presently is missing. Grimes can be a best 18-25 player off a back flank as a still productive footballer and has more good footy ahead of him, body permitting, as someone who has been underutilised by Melbourne this season. The relative weakness is his footskills which are below average which is all that stops him from being a certain best 22 player.

Will Minson (situational): If Jarrod Witts gets traded, Minson would prove an ideal depth ruckman behind Grundy who can offer value as a mentor to the clubs developing ruckmen and come in and play as required at AFL level to a suitable standard. Minson could prove largely the Ben Hudson equivalent of a few years ago and if demand is low would be a good get as a rookie.

To prove a point. Assuming Cloke and Witts are traded and to allow for the necessary salary cap perhaps Brown and Blair leave as free agent and some lesser names get traded. We could just via free agency gain the less demanded still available free agents to a very well balance best 22 of:
B: Sean Dempster Tom Lonergan Corey Enright
HB: Matthew Boyd Ben Reid Jeremy Howe
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Scott Thompson Daniel Wells
HF: Brent Harvey Chris Mayne Travis Varcoe
F: Alex Fasolo Darcy Moore Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Scott Pendlebury Adam Treloar
BENCH: Nick Dal Santo Jimmy Bartel Taylor Adams Sam Fisher
EMG: Ricky Henderson Jordan De Goey Marley Williams
 
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Trade targets:

Nat Fyfe: After Dangerfield, Fyfe is the best midfielder in the game and if open to moving would be a perfect fit with his dominant contested ball winning and ability to push forward and take a grab.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Combination of players outside best seven of player value rankings and/or picks.

Tom Rockliff: One of the better midfielders in the game and probably the most productive in the competition when on his game. Would be an excellent Dane Swan replacement as that ultra-productive midfielder.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Combination of players outside best 15 of player value rankings or picks.

Tom Mitchell: Such an impressive accumulator and ball winner through the midfield. If Sydney show any willingness to move him, he would be a worthy successor as a Swan-like ball magnet through the midfield.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Combination of players outside best 15 of player value rankings or picks.

Tom Hawkins: If Hawkins goes out of favour, he would be a terrific get as one of the more underrated players in the AFL at the moment. With all the talk about players requiring versatility to be effective, people are losing sight of how hard this guy is to defend. Hawkins while a two-dimensional overpower and mark or mark on lead type forward, he remains today still a best 10 key forward in the game and would make any team better. On Collingwood’s list Hawkins would be a best ten on list standard player.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Combination of players outside best 15 of player value rankings and/or picks.

Thomas Boyd: Has struggled for regular senior AFL selection and form has only been so-so to this point for the Dogs. Big guys always take time to adjust and learn how to dominate at AFL level. I expect Boyd in a few years’ time becomes a monster up forward along the lines of what Hawkins has become as a power forward, and if he can learn off Cloke that would only help his development. Perfect fit alongside Moore as a power forward. Still has the scope with time to become a best 10 key forward in the game and a potential best ten on list standard player in the future.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Combination of players outside best 15 of player value rankings or picks.

Adam Tomlinson: Provide himself late season as a key defender with his endurance elite by position, having the body on body strength to contain opposing forwards and being able to take some intercept marks. Can in time develop into a best 10 on list standard player and looms as a long term key defender for a team.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Late first round selection or an equivalent level player.

Brett Deledio: If Richmond shop Deledio he would be a game changing addition. He has his ongoing injuries to manage but his standard of play remains high and off a forward flank he makes the team better as a best five on list quality player.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Late first round selection or an equivalent level player.

Pearce Hanley: One of the better outside running players in the game and off either a wing or half back flank would be an ideal list fit and instant best ten on list standard player.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Late first round selection or an equivalent level player.

Steven Motlop: Has been better than advertised this year with a 450+ disposal, 38 goal season. Off half forward for some outside polish and finishing would be an ideal list fit and an instant best 10 on list standard player.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Late first round selection or an equivalent level player.

Brendan Goddard: Still an impactful outside player who uses the ball well and finds plenty of it. Leadership value a bonus. Would be a best 10 on list standard player.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Second round pick or equivalent level player.

Eric Mackenzie: With this season behind him after his ACL, he can return to being a highly effective key defender again. Can also provide much needed veteran leadership down back. Would be a best 15 on list standard player.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Second round pick or equivalent level player.

Shaun Burgoyne: If Hawthorn decide that Burgoyne is too old and they want to get younger, I’d make a strong play for him. No player in the AFL is better in the big moments and with his versatility to play and have an impact anywhere he is an easy best 22 fit who can help against the better teams and provide some much needed veteran leadership. Would be a best 15 on list standard player.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Third round pick or equivalent level player.

Michael Barlow: Highly productive and underrated midfielder. Can still play and would be an instant best 15 player who makes you better.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Third round pick or equivalent level player.

Lewis Jetta: If he gets fed up with limited opportunities for West Coast, he would be a terrific get as a line breaker on the wing. Still has his pace and as an outside type will have his down years just as often as he will have his better years.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Third round pick or equivalent level player.

Jeff Garlett: If he goes out of favour with Melbourne would prove a good get with his pace, scoreboard impact and tackling. Has his inconsistencies but I’d be prepared to live with that given how good his best is.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Third round pick or equivalent level player.

Gary Rohan: A risk based on injury history and inconsistent performance. Has gamechanging ability and super explosive pace. He could go either way and needs to find a best position, but if he works out, he could work out in a big way with his talent.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Third round pick or equivalent level player.

Trent McKenzie: McKenzie has struggled for the last few years with a combination or form and injury issues. I feel in the most part he was been used wrongly, getting exposed too deep in the back half in 1v1 contests. McKenzie I feel would be best used in a wing/back flank role.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Fourth round selection or equivalent standard player.

Ivan Maric: If Witts is traded Maric would present a suitable choice as a depth ruckman who can provide leadership if his body is in suitable shape to continue playing.

What I would be willing to offer (not necessarily correlating with what would be enough to get the player): Fourth round selection or equivalent standard player.


Players Collingwood have been linked to (and thoughts):

Lin Jong: Quick at his height but poor kick and depth player who doesn’t play any position to a best 22 standard. Not someone I want to see on Collingwood’s senior list. Depth only.

Shane Kersten: Not quite a key forward, being more so used as a third tall forward. Had a stretch of good games but has had too many games without any goals. For me not the answer to the club’s key forward questions. Has some best 22 chances but would for me be a depth player.

Ed Langdon: Has shown some promising signs late season but ultimately scoreboard impact and contested ball winning numbers are not where they need to be to suggest he has a consistent AFL career. Has some best 22 chances but would for me be a depth player.

Adam Tomlinson: As in previous section I endorse the club making a play at Tomlinson given his 1v1 strength, endurance and some intercepting ability down back. Looks like a clear best 22 player and an excellent long term piece to build with.

Caleb Marchbank: His second season has been a write off with injury. Has shown promise down back is not a proven player and someone I would only consider if it’s a reasonable trade but would not overspend on. Looks like he likely future best 18 player but likely not a top tier talent.

James Stewart: Had a good but not outstanding season in the NEAFL. Continues to improve from season to season and is a terrific athlete. Is someone who projects to be a best 18-25 player and as such Stewart is someone if as a throw-in as part of a deal I would be willing to consider, but he is not someone I would make a priority.

Will Hoskin-Elliott: Has excellent speed and endurance. Can fly for a mark and provide some scoreboard impact. Doesn’t find or win enough of the ball. Injury prone. Best 18-25 player who I’m open to if available on the cheap but would not be willing to spend heavily on.

Ivan Maric: As above a suitable list addition if Witts is traded. Would offer good leadership and depth.
 
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Topical questions answered:

Why are Collingwood getting worse each year? Who is to blame?

Collingwood under the coaching of Nathan Buckley have gotten worse with each season.

Some may point their fingers at the recruiters, though I would strongly disagree with those who do, with our recruiters continuing to draft reasonably well with Phillips, Crocker and Smith all proving good value recruiting choices and also in more recent years identifying opposition talent better with Treloar and Howe this past year meaningful list additions who have been among the clubs best this season.

Some may point their fingers at the coaching group, and with player development and the win-loss column not what it once was. Though I’d look at the effectiveness of our coaching group including Nathan Buckley as head coach unclear, with the playing group seemingly buying into what Buckley has to say with no obvious rumblings of dissatisfaction from the playing group.

Where I’m seeing a clear problem is with the “high performance” and “medical contractors” with Collingwood’s major problem for some years now coming in the form of injuries and the premature decline of our veteran’s relative to the other 17 teams in the competition. The majority of our players once they hit or near 30 in the vast majority of cases decline badly. There is also a troubling lack of improvement from players in their mid-20s, with seemingly from a development standpoint those within their first four seasons at the club those only players experiencing any meaningful growth to their games.

What the solution is from an injury prevention and longevity standpoint is unclear, it may be turning over staff, it may be further education to those current staff. Regardless of what is seen internally as the solution, what is clear is that major improvement needs to happen in these key areas for Collingwood to become a premiership contender.


Should Cloke be traded?

With Moore and Cox both young, developing forwards, and with Grundy and Witts both also trying to learn the art of playing forward. Cloke is a veteran with necessary experience who will greatly benefit the development of all these players in their ability to develop into effective forwards. Further to this given Cloke’s durability and his father’s longevity (playing 22 games as a 36-year-old) it can be reasonably assumed that Cloke has more good football ahead of him. Through the second half of the season he has appeared motivated and is covering the ground a lot better, so my expectation is that he continues playing good footy into his mid-30s if his motivation remains. As previously mentioned, expectations of Cloke need to be revised but he can still be productive enough over the medium term to be a keeper.


Is Reid a key forward or key defender?

Reid can play in the key position posts at either end to a high standard but this season Reid has made it clear once again that he is best utilised as a key defender, with his intercept marking and quality ball use invaluable down back and something we need more of.


Can Grundy and Witts become a worthwhile ruck combination?

Grundy to his credit is starting to have more of an impact forward of centre and is starting to hit the scoreboard more with his work at ground level very impressive for a genuine ruckman.

Witts though while improving as a tap ruckman has not made the necessary progress as a forward for the duo to be viable.

Both clearly are best utilised as ruckmen and with Grundy developing this season into arguably a best five ruckman in the game, Collingwood are better off with either Cox or Moore relieving through the ruck.

In saying that I’d prefer to see Witts persisted with as I expect him to breakout next season with his late season VFL form dominant through the ruck.


When does Nathan Buckley need to go?

Next year will surely be the final straw with Buckley if the club again miss out on a top eight finish, regardless of injuries. Four years outside the top eight, getting worse every year and going from the young premiership contender the club were under Malthouse to where the club is now. That will surely be his time up.
 
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GWS List Analysis:

GWS players:

1992 and younger talents (based on my projected estimations of career value)

--Best five on list standard players--

Jeremy Cameron (One of the best key forwards in the game and if GWS can better balance the front half with less talls inside 50m, he could become the best key forward in the game)

Jacob Hopper (Looks like a future Brownlow Medalist through the midfield with his contested ball winning ability and stoppage work good enough to become best few in the game special with time)

Dylan Shiel (Best 20 midfielder in the game and will stay in that range for a long time to come)

Stephen Coniglio (Has taken the next step this season through the midfield and is now a best 20 midfielder in the competition and will stay there for some time)

Matthew Kennedy (Already looking impressive in the NEAFL and is ready for AFL play now. Impressive contested ball winner through midfield, strong mark overhead and able to push forward and hit scoreboard. Scope to improve very high and can become one of the better tall midfielders in the game with time)

--Best six to 15 standard performers--

Josh Kelly (High quality midfielder with excellent endurance/skills who in a more prominent role on a wing would thrive and has All-Australian potential)

Zac Williams (Has developed into an impactful difference maker down back this year. Production strong with kicking and movement with ball in hand also highlights. Best 10 general defender in the competition today)

Toby Greene (Highly productive midfielder/forward who has taken big step forward this season with scoreboard impact a new and very valuable element to his game added)

Jonathon Patton (Key forward who needs opportunity where he can be featured inside 50m as the go to guy. Has come on over the second half of the season but talent hidden alongside Cameron and Lobb who make forward 50m too tall and doesn't allow Patton to draw enough of the ball. 2017 can be his breakout season with that extra preseason after the knee recos to help)

Rory Lobb (Has established himself as high level relieving ruckman who is a contested marking force inside the forward 50m and will only get better given relative inexperience)


Adam Tomlinson (Has come on of late as a key defender and looks like a long term key defender to build around. Will be hard to beat given elite endurance by position and good one on one strength)

Lachie Whitfield (Productive outside type with excellent endurance and footskills. Uncontested style likely will slightly limit upside but will improve with more prominent role - becoming something like West Coast's Andrew Gaff if given a wing to operate)

Cam McCarthy (Very capable athletic key forward who has already demonstrated he is AFL standard)

Nick Haynes (Very good intercept mark down back and matches up well on 3rd tall forwards)

Harrison Himmelberg (First year tall who is performing well in the NEAFL and as either a forward or defender looks like a best 18 player with continued improvement)

Jack Steele (Would thrive with greater midfield minutes and opportunities. High level contested ball winner and tackler who does his best work in the contest. Starting 18 standard player)

--Best 16-25 standard performers--

Caleb Marchbank (Missing time this year makes unclear exactly where he is at but looks like a highly likely best 22 quality player over time. Probably more a versatile defender than key defender but looms as a likely component to a back half as an able rebounder and stopper)

Nathan Wilson (Explosive runner off half back who can break the game open. Improved player and has further scope to grow if things go right. Best 22 player on most teams)

Jeremy Finlayson (Second year tall who is developing well as a key defender and has had a big second half to the season. Looks like he will develop into a best 22 player)

James Stewart (Athletic and skilled key forward who has improved each year. May be even better if shifted to key defence post. Possible best 22 quality player)

Jake Barrett (Consistently good NEAFL numbers through midfield and has some ability. For a team needing more midfielders he could slot into a best 22 pretty easily)

Will Hoskin-Elliott (Highlight machine up forward with great all around athletic ability. Given limited games this year hasn't completely established himself he is still somewhat of a wildcard but is a possible but not certain best 22 player)

Matt Buntine (Able stopper and can improve further as an intercepter. Capable component to a back half as a 5th/6th man and possible best 22 player)

Devon Smith (Good pressure forward but scoreboard impact not as high as ideally it should be)

Adam Kennedy (Courageous and able role player down back)

-- Capable depth --

Aidan Corr (Can develop into able stopper but limited rebounder so likely to be limited to depth role unless key defence options are limited)

Daniel Lloyd (NEAFL form strong and is someone who could if required play at AFL level)

Tom Downie (Passable but overall uninspiring numbers. May be depth option but likely nothing more)

--Wildcards who need another year until any clarity as to best 22 relevance--

Matthew Flynn (As a first year developing ruckman it's too early to make a call but season one signs good with marking and scoreboard impact better than expected)

Jarrod Pickett (Showed flashes but was mostly inconsistent during first season with numbers not high enough, with endurance needing work. Being out with foot injury need to reassess on return)

Paul Ahern (Showed some promise at times in season one but was inconsistent. With knee injury this season will need to reassess how he looks on return next season)

Pat McKenna (Missed much of season one so too early to say but production low this season so unless that improves McKenna looms as a probable depth standard player)



1991 and olders (evaluated based on current standard of play)

--Best 5 on list standard performers--

Heath Shaw (One of if not premier rebounding backman in competition. 1v1 game, run, intercepting ability and leadership all bigs reasons behinds GWS' recent rise)

Callan Ward (Productive, hard, good leader. Known quantity and should continue producing to high level)

--Best 6-15 standard performers--

Tom Scully (Running ability and work rate top notch. Highly productive and leads by example on the track and on the field)

Shane Mumford (On the decline and with injury history only suitable for a contending team if available on the cheap. Still big presence and key to GWS success)

Phil Davis (Durability is a question-mark. Very good shutdown and intercepting key defender otherwise)

Steve Johnson (Still a very effective forward with durability only question-mark)

Ryan Griffen (Midfield contribution still solid but not as good as he was 2013 and prior)

--Best 16-25 standard performer--

Joel Patfull (Able role player down back who does his job but starting to drop away, offering limited rebound)

Rhys Palmer (Able role player forward/midfield)

--Capable depth--

Tim Mohr (Big body down back and able to play as required, numbers ok but lacks composure)

Sam Reid (Scoreboard impact in NEAFL good. Never proven best 22 ability but able to step up to AFL standard if required)

Dawson Simpson (Acceptable tap ruckman given height/size but does not win enough of the footy)

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Looking at the players above I'd say forget the depth, forget the speculative players. Consider only those best 15 or projected best 15 on list standard players. 16-25 standard players are possible considerations if thrown into a deal and fit a list need.
 
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Targets:

Jarrod Pickett: Sooner or later GWS will realise that there will be no possible way to accommodate Pickett in the clubs best 22. GWS have so many better outside players and forwards and his game is so far behind their other options that my expectation is GWS look to cash Pickett in over the next year or two while he has at least some currency. In terms of what Pickett can offer, he is a line breaking extraordinaire and something of a Lewis Jetta clone and offers that missing outside element to complement our on-ball unit with some meaningful outside run. He’ll need to improve his endurance further and start to find more of the footy, but on impact per possession, 15 touches from Pickett feels more like 30 touches for the next guy in the way you might say of a Rioli or Jetta so with development he can really become a meaningful difference maker.

Trent McKenzie: It is difficult to gauge McKenzie’s position on the Gold Coast list. If he dishes up another season like 2015 he could be delisted at seasons end. He hasn’t improved since his first season and has had his issues off the field. In saying all this I tend to feel that he has been incorrectly utilised in recent seasons down back and would be better suited to playing up on a wing as something of a wing/half back who can provide meaningful penetration via his 70m kick and through his ability to take on the game with his pace and cover a lot of ground quickly.

Aaron Mullett: Has had some difficulties with injury in recent times. Like McKenzie I feel Mullett also has been wrongly utilised. When used down back Mullett gets exposed but up the field I find he looks a lot better and able to play a more acceptable two-way game. Mullett’s key strengths are in his long kick and his linebreaking ability and up on a wing where he is best utilised I can see him being a much more prominent component than he has recently been for North Melbourne.

Karl Amon: With the addition of Toumpas it is unclear whether Amon will receive regular senior opportunities. Like Mullett and McKenzie, Amon is another who on a wing can break the lines and kick long to a high standard.

Nathan Wilson: Has impressed through the NAB Cup but with the sheer quantity of quality talent Wilson is one of the Giants who may well again this season miss out on regular selection. Wilson is one of the better linebreaking back flankers and can really provide meaningful run down back and has the production on the board through the NEAFL, not looking out of place at AFL level either. Just depends on whether he can establish himself this year as a best 22 player for GWS or not.

Connor Menadue: It’s possible Menadue breaks out this season and comes into his own at AFL level this season but if he does not receive regular senior opportunities then he is someone I am very much interested in acquiring. Big time, big game player having played by far and away his best game of his draft year in a TAC Cup Final and has incredible explosive pace, evasion and footskills. As a forward flank or winger Menadue has the scope to develop into a high level component of a best 22 and if Richmond do not recognise this, then I would happily take him off their hands and see him flourish in our program.

Outside of Pickett and Menadue. The Rest could be Gettable. Get Mullett as even as a De-Listed Free Agent
 
25. James Aish: A wildcard for me who could go either way. Has the pedigree and junior performances, complimented by a promising first season, has the versatility and a good skillset. Aish just needs to develop a point of difference and become a more damaging player before I look at him as a genuine best 22 player

His ball use can be a X-Factor and Point of Difference. Just have to cut out the Odd Shank Kick he has that does not go far off the Ground and Not long way either.

I have him best 22 but still Develpoing
 
Outside of Pickett and Menadue. The Rest could be Gettable. Get Mullett as even as a De-Listed Free Agent

It's an interesting group and as outside players their value from season to season will change dramatically because with those who don't win the contested ball consistently they have their good and their bad seasons, just as is the case with small forwards.

So it's tricky to say where any of these guys will be rated on their lists at seasons end.
 
It's an interesting group and as outside players their value from season to season will change dramatically because with those who don't win the contested ball consistently they have their good and their bad seasons, just as is the case with small forwards.

So it's tricky to say where any of these guys will be rated on their lists at seasons end.

Very True. Lot can happen over a Season
 
Good read, thorough and thoughtful as always. Interesting you list Grundy as number 2 on your list though when I don't think he is guaranteed a game Round 1.

I agree Knightmare about Grundy.

Where would you have Grundy sirlothie ?
 
How our list stacks up:

Excellent list depth and injury coverage across the board. Particularly strong and deep midfield with a surplus of onballers. The quality of youth is among the best few in the competition giving the club future premiership chances. Where the club is lacking is in ?????
Looks like something is missing in that paragraph.
Fantastic read otherwise
 

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