Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[well left]

Draft targets added.

Free agent and trade targets updated.

Player value rankings and player preference to play list also updated.

Great work as always Knightmare.

One name I didn't see on your trade targets and one that seems to divide opinion on here is Sam Reid. Interested in your thoughts as I think he is someone we could target, particularly if Cloke walks.

 

[pugsville]

I've toyed with having Smith higher.

But he isn't higher because he is very outside (88 contested/ 273 uncontested possessions), lack of hurt factor and skill errors. His disposal efficiency is high as a result of his outside nature, lots of touches out wide and down back and his view to find mostly safe, short targets. But can find the footy and has a super work rate.

Smith is very capable at AFL level as a component who can play as required.

Lack of hurt factors and skill errors is a complaint that covers well over half of our list.

Smith is on the improve though and has had a good first season. His growth along with Wills over the next year will be very interesting.

As for White, I have fit him into the worthwhile depth category but I don't have him all that high on the list overall. Still an inconsistent forward with inadequate production and while he can have good games against poor opposition, he doesn't against good teams. For dual position forward/ruck types Cox and Moore is plenty.

Cloke while is numbers are very comparable to White's this season, I look at more as having a poor season which based on his statistical history I look at as something he can rebound from given his durability and his fathers longevity.

I think Smith consistency and composure for a first year player is good he's best 22 with the current list.

White it's more that we our weakness lack of options, White, Cox, Cloke right now is much of a muchness if White goes, we're very vulnerable to 1 injury restricting options very highly to a group of either young/inexperienced or older/inconsistent. the need for at least another ruck option besides grundy, is also a factor. Definitely want to see a better option, but cannot see one being easily available, but these era of increased player movement, you never know. But without that option being brought in I think White is just required depth player.

 

[Knightmare]

Great work as always Knightmare.

One name I didn't see on your trade targets and one that seems to divide opinion on here is Sam Reid. Interested in your thoughts as I think he is someone we could target, particularly if Cloke walks.

Sam Reid has had a shocking run with injury this year with the no senior games played.

When healthy he is useful and underutilised by Sydney.

I'd be open to having Reid if he cost a pick from 15 onwards or an equivalent level player (any one player 16 onwards in my player value rankings would be what I'd be willing to offer in terms of a player), but nothing more than that.

A trade of Nathan Brown for Sam Reid could be a mutually beneficial trade, though I'd doubt Sydney would rate Brown as highly as Reid, with Reid being the younger and more talented of the two, even if structurally Brown is the better list fit in Sydney's situation.
Similarly with Tom Langdon who with the success of Howe and the hopeful health of Scharenberg while a good component is probably replaceable enough.

I think Smith consistency and composure for a first year player is good he's best 22 with the current list.

White it's more that we our weakness lack of options, White, Cox, Cloke right now is much of a muchness if White goes, we're very vulnerable to 1 injury restricting options very highly to a group of either young/inexperienced or older/inconsistent. the need for at least another ruck option besides grundy, is also a factor. Definitely want to see a better option, but cannot see one being easily available, but these era of increased player movement, you never know. But without that option being brought in I think White is just required depth player.

In terms of disposal with Smith, I will compliment Smith on his distribution by hand. The speed and reliability of his delivery by hand has impressed. But for footskills, I'm on the whole squad beyond Pendlebury and other names to varying extents.

As a replacement for White I'd willingly rookie list Brett Eddy who for mine is an upgrade on White. He isn't someone who can go through the ruck, but up forward is a very capable and reliable forward who can provide good depth to replace Moore as required.

Again look towards the clubs rookie list, I'd be looking at Will Minson for depth if Witts gets traded with Minson for veteran leadership and solid performance as a Grundy replacement for mine also a better option.

If we were desperate for a relief ruckman who plays mostly forward and fills in through the ruck for minor minutes, while being able to play heavier ruck minutes if required. Darcy Cameron again as a mature age rookie would be a suitable option as someone who gets better every season and is still young enough to be a developable player.

With all that said, White will no doubt remain. I just see several options I favour for each post on performance who wouldn't even require a senior list position and could offer as much or more by position relative to White.

 

[left at home]

if next years draft is better than this would the club look at taking the picks for 2017 instead of this year
for players traded out as an option

 

[Knightmare]

if next years draft is better than this would the club look at taking the picks for 2017 instead of this year
for players traded out as an option

It's never clear which draft will be better until you get there. It could be a stronger draft next year.

What is clear is up the top end (top 10 specifically) there are some particularly impressive combo ruck/forwards. So early days given our list needs, if we move into next years draft, that's where we'd want to be.

The risk involved in trading for a 2017 draft pick is you don't know where that pick will be.

Essendon/Carlton/Brisbane etc. While it doesn't seem likely now. They could for all we know rise up the ladder any number of positions.

Brisbane could be an easy example. Brisbane may offer their 2nd round pick for either 2016 or 2017 for Jarrod Witts. If Brisbane rising up the ladder in 2017, that pick won't be so good.

So if you take that risk, you better be sure you're going to be on the right end of that probable ladder position movement or trading into an out and out superdraft.

 

[left at home]

So if you take that risk, you better be sure you're going to be on the right end of that probable ladder position movement or trading into an out and out superdraft.

if it is a super draft as you say and getting picks any where in the 1st round is going to get a high quality kid
so the risk mite well be worth it if we can up grade to that part of the draft

 

[shizzle]

Knightmare Big news today with several North players not being offered contracts for 2017, and I see you mentioned Dal Santo as an option you liked, I agree, while he may have lost a bit of pace with his elite footskills I'm not sure it's as big an issue as some make out.

Both offer valuable experience and leadership which we lack, both very professional in their preparation, and fit our needs of better field kicking and a small crumbing goalkicking forward.

What are your thoughts on getting Harvey and Dal Santo?

With Bucks seemingly on his last legs and needing to deliver it surely would be tempting despite our age profile, and not being a premiership contender.

 

[Prochard123]

Knightmare Big news today with several North players not being offered contracts for 2017, and I see you mentioned Dal Santo as an option you liked, I agree, while he may have lost a bit of pace with his elite footskills I'm not sure it's as big an issue as some make out.

Both offer valuable experience and leadership which we lack, both very professional in their preparation, and fit our needs of better field kicking and a small crumbing goalkicking forward.

What are your thoughts on getting Harvey and Dal Santo?

With Bucks seemingly on his last legs and needing to deliver it surely would be tempting despite our age profile, and not being a premiership contender.

I know this question isn't for me, but personally I see no downside in getting both Harvey and Dal Santo at all.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Harvey at relative cheap rate brings valuable work ethic, experience, come off a good year, you'd think brings hunger to show he can go another year, leadership.
Can kick a goal.
Straight away I see him better than say Blair (sorry to the Blair fans).
If reasonable price can't see much downside.

 

[mike123]

Harvey at relative cheap rate brings valuable work ethic, experience, come off a good year, you'd think brings hunger to show he can go another year, leadership.
Can kick a goal.
Straight away I see him better than say Blair (sorry to the Blair fans).
If reasonable price can't see much downside.

He'd better than all of our list except for a select few.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

He'd better than all of our list except for a select few.

Not quite better than all due to age. It he's handy all the same.
But for one year he offers, I'm guessing a little bit we could use.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Big news today with several North players not being offered contracts for 2017, and I see you mentioned Dal Santo as an option you liked, I agree, while he may have lost a bit of pace with his elite footskills I'm not sure it's as big an issue as some make out.

Both offer valuable experience and leadership which we lack, both very professional in their preparation, and fit our needs of better field kicking and a small crumbing goalkicking forward.

What are your thoughts on getting Harvey and Dal Santo?

With Bucks seemingly on his last legs and needing to deliver it surely would be tempting despite our age profile, and not being a premiership contender.

Big news out of North Melbourne!

This is the mistake that many anticipated North Melbourne would make.

And wow what an opportunity it could be for a side like Collingwood!!!

I'd be making bold offers to Harvey, Dal Santo and Petrie to join Collingwood.

Petrie would be an outstanding mentor to Darcy Moore given his experience and given he plays much the same position at a similar height. If Cloke remains, Petrie could pretty easily play alongside Cloke, Moore and Grundy as the big man group. Or if Cloke goes then that makes Petrie even more important structurally. Petrie has dropped away some this year, but has still had 243 disposals, 105 marks and kicked 27 goals from his 21 games this season. He has the durability having played 21 or more games each of the past six seasons. So in my view he still in my view given his still solid performance and excellent durability suitable for a senior list position.

Dal Santo is all class and from a footskills standpoint would add so much! He can play anywhere. Still finds the footy. 491 disposals from 20 games is an outstanding return. His durability has been a constant and only in 2002 and 2015 dropped below 20 games, so the durability is certainly there. For me he is a best 15 on list standard player after the retirement of Swan and given his durability and skills I wouldn't put it past him to continue beyond 2017. As a list fit Dal Santo is perfect, he offers the versatility to play wherever needed, and with the clubs skill deficit Dal Santo gives the club exactly what is needed. Given his experiences on a good St Kilda side as well as North Melbourne, I'm also very interested to see what Dal Santo can offer as a leader to the younger midfielders.

Harvey from his 21 games has been outstanding and is still a best 40 player in the competition. 445 disposals, 34 goals. It's ridiculous that North Melbourne are getting rid of him! He still has remarkably retained his pace. He is still healthy and playing every game. He trains like a dog and is as professional as anyone in the competition. Every club in the competition needs that! Collingwood need Harvey more than any team in the competition. He has the running and skill that Collingwood lack. Further to that he might also be able to give our club doctors and trainers insight into how he has gotten better with age, maintained his pace, and been able since 1998 to play 20 more games in all but two seasons (2009 and 2013) which is the breakthrough Collingwood most need for future progress.

I flat out want all three. Harvey, Dal Santo and Petrie. Offer them the money required to convince each of them to play on and make clear the clubs commitment to winning, the opportunity for each of the three to be best 22 players and the clubs need for veteran leadership to aid the development of the clubs youth which lacks veteran leadership.

 

[lenny20]

Definitely with you here Knightmare. The eagerness with which clubs toss out their over-30s is perverse. Too many clubs have gotten into the mindset of constantly building for the future without ever attacking the now.

There's an argument to be made for all three, but surely Harvey would be a walk up start in our side. What's our small forward depth like? Blair doesn't offer much offensively. Elliott, Crocker and Fasolo are all marking forwards. Broomhead is perennially injured. Am I missing anybody?

We'd be mad not to at least enquire.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Big news out of North Melbourne!

This is the mistake that many anticipated North Melbourne would make.

And wow what an opportunity it could be for a side like Collingwood!!!

I'd be making bold offers to Harvey, Dal Santo and Petrie to join Collingwood.

Petrie would be an outstanding mentor to Darcy Moore given his experience and given he plays much the same position at a similar height. If Cloke remains, Petrie could pretty easily play alongside Cloke, Moore and Grundy as the big man group. Or if Cloke goes then that makes Petrie even more important structurally. Petrie has dropped away some this year, but has still had 243 disposals, 105 marks and kicked 27 goals from his 21 games this season. He has the durability having played 21 or more games each of the past six seasons. So in my view he still in my view given his still solid performance and excellent durability suitable for a senior list position.

Dal Santo is all class and from a footskills standpoint would add so much! He can play anywhere. Still finds the footy. 491 disposals from 20 games is an outstanding return. His durability has been a constant and only in 2002 and 2015 dropped below 20 games, so the durability is certainly there. For me he is a best 15 on list standard player after the retirement of Swan and given his durability and skills I wouldn't put it past him to continue beyond 2017. As a list fit Dal Santo is perfect, he offers the versatility to play wherever needed, and with the clubs skill deficit Dal Santo gives the club exactly what is needed. Given his experiences on a good St Kilda side as well as North Melbourne, I'm also very interested to see what Dal Santo can offer as a leader to the younger midfielders.

Harvey from his 21 games has been outstanding and is still a best 40 player in the competition. 445 games, 34 goals. It's ridiculous that North Melbourne are getting rid of him! He still has remarkably retained his pace. He is still healthy and playing every game. He trains like a dog and is as professional as anyone in the competition. Every club in the competition needs that! Collingwood need Harvey more than any team in the competition. He has the running and skill that Collingwood lack. Further to that he might also be able to give our club doctors and trainers insight into how he has gotten better with age, maintained his pace, and been able since 1998 to play 20 more games in all but two seasons (2009 and 2013) which is the breakthrough Collingwood most need for future progress.

I flat out want all three. Harvey, Dal Santo and Petrie. Offer them the money required to convince each of them to play on and make clear the clubs commitment to winning, the opportunity for each of the three to be best 22 players and the clubs need for veteran leadership to aid the development of the clubs youth which lacks veteran leadership.

Harvey I'm super keen on, am sure he'd come cheap (relatively) and would offer so much especially training ethic and leadership. And as you mention, can teach us about over age types going and going and going..... Ever ready batteries should use him in an ad.
Del santo, you've sold me. I was, I must confess, thinking he was a bit on last legs but you have convinced me.
Petrie for me is pricing based, if a good price why not.
He would be great mentor if nothing else for Moore.

Interesting times.

Now why would North do all this before their finals run? Bizarre

 

[Knightmare]

Definitely with you here Knightmare. The eagerness with which clubs toss out their over-30s is perverse. Too many clubs have gotten into the mindset of constantly building for the future without ever attacking the now.

There's an argument to be made for all three, but surely Harvey would be a walk up start in our side. What's our small forward depth like? Blair doesn't offer much offensively. Elliott, Crocker and Fasolo are all marking forwards. Broomhead is perennially injured. Am I missing anybody?

We'd be mad not to at least enquire.

I rate them all.

Harvey is an instant top five on list player.

Dal Santo top 15.

Petrie top 20.

Harvey I don't feel is best utilised as a crumbing forward. He can still certainly offer that. But for me Harvey is best used as a half forward flanker who can rotate up onto a wing and also push into a forward pocket for periods during games. The key with Harvey isn't even so much his finishing. But his work rate and running up the ground with his greatest asset being his kicking inside the forward 50. Harvey remains one of the competitions best kicks and has over the past few years maintained according to champion data from 2010-2015 had the competitions highest kick rating of those with 500+ kicks (above Robert Murphy, Shannon Hurn etc).

As a crumber I would personally take Dan Allsop as a rookie, to compliment the addition of Harvey as another piece to the front half.

Harvey is an outstanding list fit because up forward he balances the side, offering skills, pace, crumbing and ball winning, without being reliant on getting the ball via marks as our other small and medium types are.

--
For kicking i50 Dal Santo also would be phenomenal. He'd be in my personal top 10 kicks i50 in the competition, so in something like a rotational midfield, forward flank or even half back role as required if more skill is needed down back (in a capacity as something like Pendlebury down back), then that's where I see his value.

--
To look at a team structure. I could pretty easily go with a best 22 (with Harvey/Dal Santo/Petrie added of)
B: Matthew Scharenberg Nathan Brown Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon Ben Reid Jeremy Howe
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Scott Pendlebury Nick Dal Santo
HF: Travis Varcoe Travis Cloke Brent Harvey
F: Darcy Moore Drew Petrie Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Adam Treloar Taylor Adams
Extended BENCH: Jordan De Goey Jack Crisp Alex Fasolo Tim Broomhead Jackson Ramsay Brayden Maynard Mason Cox

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I rate them all.

Harvey is an instant top five on list player.

Dal Santo top 15.

Petrie top 20.

Harvey I don't feel is best utilised as a crumbing forward. He can still certainly offer that. But for me Harvey is best used as a half forward flanker who can rotate up onto a wing and also push into a forward pocket for periods during games. The key with Harvey isn't even so much his finishing. But his work rate and running up the ground with his greatest asset being his kicking inside the forward 50. Harvey remains one of the competitions best kicks and has over the past few years maintained according to champion data from 2010-2015 had the competitions highest kick rating of those with 500+ kicks (above Robert Murphy, Shannon Hurn etc).

As a crumber I would personally take Dan Allsop as a rookie, to compliment the addition of Harvey as another piece to the front half.

Harvey is an outstanding list fit because up forward he balances the side, offering skills, pace, crumbing and ball winning, without being reliant on getting the ball via marks as our other small and medium types are.

--
For kicking i50 Dal Santo also would be phenomenal. He'd be in my personal top 10 kicks i50 in the competition, so in something like a rotational midfield, forward flank or even half back role as required if more skill is needed down back (in a capacity as something like Pendlebury down back), then that's where I see his value.

--
To look at a team structure. I could pretty easily go with a best 22 (with Harvey/Dal Santo/Petrie added of)
B: Matthew Scharenberg Nathan Brown Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon Ben Reid Jeremy Howe
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Scott Pendlebury Nick Dal Santo
HF: Travis Varcoe Travis Cloke Brent Harvey
F: Darcy Moore Drew Petrie Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Adam Treloar Taylor Adams
Extended BENCH: Jordan De Goey Jack Crisp Alex Fasolo Tim Broomhead Jackson Ramsay Brayden Maynard Mason Cox

I like how your team is shaping.
I must admit on the bench for he musts are Fasolo and De Goey and Maynard the rest can fight out the last spot so to speak.

I would love to see a forward line structure with Elliot, Fasolo, Harvey, Moore and maybe Cloke, Petrie etc
Becomes frightening.

Imagine throwing in Howe at times. All of a sudden we are frightening to every defence.

HF. Harvey ~ Moore ~ Howe
F. Elliot ~ Petrie ~ Fasolo

Supported and exchanging Cloke, Varcoe, (then Sidebottom, Pendlebury, De Goey et el)

 

[left at home]

agree on Brent Harvey, should at the very least inquire. like the wee man but even at 40
is a big improvement over blair.
if cloke does go, petrie all so l am ok with looking to have for a season
nick is the only one, look to be ageing as a player very quickly this year

 

[Knightmare]

Harvey I'm super keen on, am sure he'd come cheap (relatively) and would offer so much especially training ethic and leadership. And as you mention, can teach us about over age types going and going and going..... Ever ready batteries should use him in an ad.
Del santo, you've sold me. I was, I must confess, thinking he was a bit on last legs but you have convinced me.
Petrie for me is pricing based, if a good price why not.
He would be great mentor if nothing else for Moore.

Interesting times.

Now why would North do all this before their finals run? Bizarre

Dal Santo has gone out of flavour. Like Petrie, he has lost pace. So he probably won't get much love from AFL clubs.

I'd definitely go after both though.

Petrie I'm with you in that I wouldn't offer him a large contract, but he is still someone I'd want on my senior list. Even Dal Santo I wouldn't overspend to get, though would offer probably fair currency based on his standard of play.

Like with James Kelly last year getting cut, Dal Santo similarly for me still has game and the skills, ability to find the footy and versatility to be useful.

North Melbourne announcing it now I don't understand at all.

The reason for doing it overall is that they aren't anywhere close to a flag (thinking premiership windows) and they're overall in the decline, so they're turning to youth in the (delusional) hope that that will turn things around for them. They're probably finishing bottom 4-8 next season.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Dal Santo has gone out of flavour. Like Petrie, he has lost pace. So he probably won't get much love from AFL clubs.

I'd definitely go after both though.

Petrie I'm with you in that I wouldn't offer him a large contract, but he is still someone I'd want on my senior list. Even Dal Santo I wouldn't overspend to get, though would offer probably fair currency based on his standard of play.

Like with James Kelly last year getting cut, Dal Santo similarly for me still has game and the skills, ability to find the footy and versatility to be useful.

North Melbourne announcing it now I don't understand at all.

The reason for doing it overall is that they aren't anywhere close to a flag (thinking premiership windows) and they're overall in the decline, so they're turning to youth in the (delusional) hope that that will turn things around for them. They're probably finishing bottom 4-8 next season.

As always the logic of your points make sense.
I'm very keen on a year (at a minimum) of Harvey, he'd get the ball and use it well too.
Interesting times.

 

[Knightmare]

agree on Brent Harvey, should at the very least inquire. like the wee man but even at 40
is a big improvement over blair.
if cloke does go, petrie all so l am ok with looking to have for a season
nick is the only one, look to be ageing as a player very quickly this year

A lot will be with you on Dal Santo. And in his case it depends on the premium you place on speed. I'm not convinced it is so essential to his success, and if you have enough quick guys around him, you can still win with him.

He hasn't dropped below 21 disposals in his past 13 games.

v Sydney on the weekend he had 31 disposals and kicked 2 goals. So I'm of a different view with respect to why North Melbourne have fallen apart over the second half of the season, with their injury list (for the first time ever in recent memory being above average in size since mid-season).

 

[left at home]

A lot will be with you on Dal Santo. And in his case it depends on the premium you place on speed. I'm not convinced it is so essential to his success, and if you have enough quick guys around him, you can still win with him.

He hasn't dropped below 21 disposals in his past 13 games.

v Sydney on the weekend he had 31 disposals and kicked 2 goals. So I'm of a different view with respect to why North Melbourne have fallen apart over the second half of the season, with their injury list (for the first time ever in recent memory being above average in size since mid-season).

speed of movement can create the look of quick players, so on speed wise not that worried.
with nick can he play a full season or would it be better to have him play 15- 18 games to keep him fresh.
the games l have seen he racked up possessions but did not look damaging as he once did
just not sure on nick

 

[Knightmare]

speed of movement can create the look of quick players, so on speed wise not that worried.
with nick can he play a full season or would it be better to have him play 15- 18 games to keep him fresh.
the games l have seen he racked up possessions but did not look damaging as he once did
just not sure on nick

Dal Santo could be managed somewhat, probably something like Matthew Boyd to ensure he is ready to go at the right time of year. In saying that though, he until 2015 had a long record of playing every game in each season. So that possibility can't be discounted. He could very possibly play every game again if his load is managed suitably.

Dal Santo isn't who he was in 2009/2010/2011/2012 or even 2014. He has lost some of his hurt factor. He has gone from damaging to more a reliable and efficient ball user. But that's still in my view perfectly useful. That's why he is a top 15 on list rather than top 5 on list player as he was in probably just about any list in 2014 and earlier.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare,
Just wondering how you rank the top 10 midfielders and top 5 rucks by value (considering injury, age etc) in the league. I think you did something similar awhile ago with the best __ player under the age of ___.

Cheers

 

[Quicky]

I think you overrate Williams Knight. His kicking and ball handling skills are terrible. They make for a terrible mix if you are also playing the likes of Brown and Marsh. We can't afford to carry that many poor ball users out of the back half. At least the other two bring effort. Williams no longer does that for us. Given Ramsay and Sinclair are already better players and Maynard is progressing quickly I can't agree with your opinion thst he our best all round defender. He hasn't been for a long time now and I no longer see a future for him at our club.

I think he could be, with Witts, an important part of trading back into the draft this year and securing a 1st rounder. 2nd rounders traded into the 1st. And giving us more opportunities next year to throw around some of our cap and attract a big name.

 

[Prochard123]

I think you overrate Williams Knight. His kicking and ball handling skills are terrible. They make for a terrible mix if you are also playing the likes of Brown and Marsh. We can't afford to carry that many poor ball users out of the back half. At least the other two bring effort. Williams no longer does that for us. Given Ramsay and Sinclair are already better players and Maynard is progressing quickly I can't agree with your opinion thst he our best all round defender. He hasn't been for a long time now and I no longer see a future for him at our club.

I think he could be, with Witts, an important part of trading back into the draft this year and secureing a first rounder. 2nd rounders traded into the 1st. And giving us more opportunities next year to throw around some of our cap and attract a big name.

Agree, Williams has simply been disappointing. Although I do think he can turn into a solid B/B+ grade inside midfielder for another club.