Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[Prochard123]

The Collingwood Almanac is for fun and not linked to ESPN. I'd posted this prior to starting my writing with ESPN, so I figured I may as well continue updating it for one final season since I had already written and posted it already.

My Collingwood Almanac is just me being a Collingwood supporter and going about it in the way I have since I was in nappies - thinking up fanciful Collingwood trade scenarios, putting together fantasy best 22s etc.

Covering the AFL draft is what I do on weekends and I write my weekly wrap and monthly power rankings for ESPN around my day job.

Would love with ESPN to expand out into the trade and free agency space though, in addition to the draft space. It was my first love.

Have you thought about possibly coaching?

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Knightmare if this is the last almanac, this will not do!
Very cross!

 

[Knightmare]

have I missed something? What do you mean by "final season"? Is this the last edition of the Almanac? NOooooooo

If I'm back again next year with ESPN unless they want me expanding into the list management (unlikely given they've only expressed interest in having an AFL draft writer) then this likely will be my final season posting my Collingwood Almanac.

While I write for ESPN, they are fine with me posting on here given the audience I have accumulated over the years. Ultimately though my job is to produce content for ESPN then if people on here have any questions about anything I cover then I'm welcome to provide the answers. Just ideally I shouldn't be new producing content for bigfooty (such as my yearly Collingwood Almanac), as someone paid to write for ESPN.

I'm sure people will still tag me with requests to answer draft/trade/free agency/list management/best 22 etc questions. But otherwise I likely will next season be somewhat less active on this board regardless of whether with ESPN or involved in some other opportunity.

 

[Knightmare]

Have you thought about possibly coaching?

As a jack of many trades. I'm a chess coach. So I'm a coach of sorts.

As an AFL coach, having not played much of the game I don't feel I'd be the best choice as a coach.

Perhaps I could have some advisory involvement. Perhaps strategic stuff, positional placement, opposition scouting or general analysis into strengths/weaknesses across the squad and where improvement needs to come. That's more my go in that sense.

If I was to one day get involved inside a club. I'd probably be most likely to consider a recruiting advisory role of sorts as opposed to something coaching related.

Knightmare if this is the last almanac, this will not do!
Very cross!

My manager and editor at ESPN takes an interest in views/comments/engagement.

His observation was that other than grand final related stuff that the AFL draft is what receives the second most interest - clicks/views/etc.

List management and specifically my yearly Collingwood Almanac isn't relative to any of my draft content or draft content elsewhere on the internet gaining the same views/comments/engagement. This thread would have to be top on bigfooty for views/comments to genuinely capture the attention of ESPN as something they'd potentially have me write for them.

 

[Prochard123]

Hi KM,
Given the expression of interest by GC in Witts, how do you see this deal playing out? Are we merely getting one of their picks in their 20s? Or is there enough incentive in the draft to upgrade the pick by packaging Witts and pick 25 for pick 16(Hawthorn's pick for O'meara) in order to address the areas mentioned during the member forum night? Which I believe are small forward, key back and key forward.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
Given the expression of interest by GC in Witts, how do you see this deal playing out? Are we merely getting one of their picks in their 20s? Or is there enough incentive in the draft to upgrade the pick by packaging Witts and pick 25 for pick 16(Hawthorn's pick for O'meara) in order to address the areas mentioned during the member forum night? Which I believe are small forward, key back and key forward.

It's a great question and an unknown until we see it.

If we look to be active in trade week (targeting a player of Witts or greater value) then I expect Witts to be traded in a three way trade to get that player which would mean Brisbane/Gold Coast or whoever ship something elsewhere to make it work.

Otherwise it's probably Witts for a pick say early second round or thereabouts in a direct player for pick swap, with some shuffling of later picks as required either way. It's also possible that Collingwood look to move up the draft a few positions. That will likely come down to whether they expect someone they really want to be available around that pick that would be traded for, or otherwise it would depend on how many picks the club plan to use and which combination of picks would suit the club best.

All speculation until we hear stronger word as to what is likely to happen and what deals are being considered.

 

[pablo disco bar]

Who are you knightmare?

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Who are you knightmare?

Check his signature it's all there
We're lucky on our club board as we have some great people with excellent insight and knowledge to create great thought and discussion

 

[pablo disco bar]

Check his signature it's all there
We're lucky on our club board as we have some great people with excellent insight and knowledge to create great thought and discussion

How do you check a signature

 

[Saintly Viewed]

How do you check a signature

The name is revealed.
Go into links and then you get a taste of the writer.
He is one of our excellent posters in my view.
Enjoyable part of bigfooty.

 

[Scodog10]

Knightmare I gather with your ties to ESPN now you're starting to build a bit of a network within the recruiting community so I have a couple of questions for you if you're prepared to answer them.

The first and easier to answer is in regards to role breakdown in clubland. In the sluething I've done of recruiting departments throughout the league I noticed the breakdown is usually listed in locality or with monikers such as assistant or manager. Do you have any theories on why no one specialises? Or why clubs don't look to find specialised recruiters?

For me specialising in an area like KPP would add more to the recruiting team than the jack of all trades approach clubs seem to have. I think it would also make the industry more accessable.

The next question is whether you've been contacted to work on the database Chris Pelchen is developing? I understand if that's sensitive information you can't provide an answer to given its still in the development stage.

 

[PepperFace]

The name is revealed.
Go into links and then you get a taste of the writer.
He is one of our excellent posters in my view.
Enjoyable part of bigfooty.

Most people would use a tablet/mobile to access BF so wouldnt see signatures. So here is knightmares pablo disco bar :

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChrisDoerreESPN
August AFL Draft Power Rankings: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17235184/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-august
My AFL Draft Thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2016-draft-almanac.1131236/

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Most people would use a tablet/mobile to access BF so wouldnt see signatures. So here is knightmares pablo disco bar :

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChrisDoerreESPN
August AFL Draft Power Rankings: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17235184/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-august
My AFL Draft Thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2016-draft-almanac.1131236/

Never thought of that. Good information and solution

 

[4#Didak#4]

Thoughts on Nathan Vardy as a list fit for us with the imminent departure of Cloke & Witts. Plays as a fwd/ruck, looked to have the world at his feet pre-injury and hasn't quite found his way back into the Cats team, however thats as much to do with the Cats getting in Smith, Clark, Stanley and Blicavs development. Not sure exactly what his value would be but I would estimate not too far off what Cloke is worth.

 

[Knightmare]

How do you check a signature

ESPN's AFL draft expert on: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChrisDoerreESPN
August AFL Draft Power Rankings: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17235184/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-august
My AFL Draft Thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2016-draft-almanac.1131236/

Knightmare I gather with your ties to ESPN now you're starting to build a bit of a network within the recruiting community so I have a couple of questions for you if you're prepared to answer them.

The first and easier to answer is in regards to role breakdown in clubland. In the sluething I've done of recruiting departments throughout the league I noticed the breakdown is usually listed in locality or with monikers such as assistant or manager. Do you have any theories on why no one specialises? Or why clubs don't look to find specialised recruiters?

For me specialising in an area like KPP would add more to the recruiting team than the jack of all trades approach clubs seem to have. I think it would also make the industry more accessable.

The next question is whether you've been contacted to work on the database Chris Pelchen is developing? I understand if that's sensitive information you can't provide an answer to given its still in the development stage.

Clubs each have their various structures with guys who have their specific roles.

Clubs mostly have their regional managers then full time or part time scouts who work under them. And with the quantity of games the talent ID people get to (4-8 per week depending on club/the structure etc, they see a lot of footy and get a pretty full sample of games, and can always can review the replays if they can't get to games for whatever reason).

So they do a pretty good job particularly with the junior talent covering the country and seeing everyone in action. But it is based on regional knowledge rather than positional for the most part.

At games though a key understanding is that AFL recruiters have a set list of names they feel may be draftable that they look out for specifically and track during the game - eg. where they set up, what they're doing off the ball/when it's at the other end of the ground etc. So it's not all ball watching/just watching the game as you would normally as a spectator.

I think it was around 2014 Adelaide actually had a recruiter dedicate their whole time searching specifically for a ruckman. So that type of thing can also happen if a club identifies a specific need for a player of a specific type or position.

It's debatable whether having an eg. key position specialist is beneficial. You can't just watch a game thinking "I want a KPP" and then miss someone else. You'd likely need a much expanded recruiting department where someone takes eg. the kpps + rucks and someone else takes note of everyone else which may be something if clubs have several recruiters at the one game.

I haven't been contacted by Chris Pelchen and haven't been following the progress of STAR. It sounds like a good concept though, and probably not unlike what some freelance scouts have done, though being a team of recruiters, it would be a lot more comprehensive and as a result more useful information for AFL clubs.

Thoughts on Nathan Vardy as a list fit for us with the imminent departure of Cloke & Witts. Plays as a fwd/ruck, looked to have the world at his feet pre-injury and hasn't quite found his way back into the Cats team, however thats as much to do with the Cats getting in Smith, Clark, Stanley and Blicavs development. Not sure exactly what his value would be but I would estimate not too far off what Cloke is worth.

Vardy has been poor this season and has struggled in the VFL this season for form. He is a shadow of who he looked like he may become early days. This season he has only the 9 goals from 14 games. Only one game with more than 16 hitouts. No 15 or more disposal games. I'd expect better than those numbers at AFL level. In the VFL that's terrible, and as a 25 year old he isn't someone worth a list position.

 

[RGpies]

Knightmare i know your not interested in depth players but it appears pies are interested in a player from the bulldogs that may not recieving opportunites as part of the cloke trade. Jong and dale's name have been thrown around. Are there any realistic players on the dogs list you would be interested in? Hrovat may be a chance to ove also going on rumours

 

[4#Didak#4]

Vardy has been poor this season and has struggled in the VFL this season for form. He is a shadow of who he looked like he may become early days. This season he has only the 9 goals from 14 games. Only one game with more than 16 hitouts. No 15 or more disposal games. I'd expect better than those numbers at AFL level. In the VFL that's terrible, and as a 25 year old he isn't someone worth a list position.

I think you need to take into account that he hasn't been able to do a full pre-season for many years. Certainly his form is not great in the VFL, but a lot of those earlier games he was not playing a lot of minutes, gaining fitness and simply just trying to get through games without breaking down.....which he eventually did. Sometimes you need to look past raw the numbers.

His hands are very very good as is his running ability for a big guy, I am pretty sure a fit Vardy is best 22 at many AFL clubs given the position he would play. However, there are mega concerns over his body especially his hip and it would be a medical dept call as much as any, In terms of style of player and what we need I think he is a very good fit and someone who can replace Cloke's role with the added bonus of being able to ruck.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare i know your not interested in depth players but it appears pies are interested in a player from the bulldogs that may not recieving opportunites as part of the cloke trade. Jong and dale's name have been thrown around. Are there any realistic players on the dogs list you would be interested in? Hrovat may be a chance to ove also going on rumours

Matthew Boyd (free agent) is the player I would love to see on the Pies from the Dogs.

Hrovat isn't a need and doesn't have any best 22 potential on Collingwood's list given all the midfield additions in recent years.

Jong I view as a poor kick and don't believe would be a best 22 player. He could be on the fringe. But is something like a poor man's Jack Crisp.

Bailey Dale is a potentially developable player. He had a promising first season and this season (second season) has been inconsistent in the VFL. As a throwin in a package, he is one to consider though not necessarily someone I would target.

If I was to trade for Cloke for a combination of WBD players (outside of those name players). A Caleb Daniel and Toby McLean combination I would consider (given the club have identified our forward stocks as an area needing further depth). Caleb Daniel has a lot of Brent Harvey and is right up there with him for decision making/footskills in combination. He also covers the ground now and has good pace. Toby McLean by contrast is much like another Jamie Elliott as a smallish aerial marking specialist, but also is fine at ground level and has the overall production to be an effective forward.
Tory Dickson could also pretty easily be exchanged with either of them and is another capable forward in his own right, mostly on the basis of his reliable conversion in front of goal.

A three way trade is another pretty easy possibility if there is someone elsewhere we like.

I think you need to take into account that he hasn't been able to do a full pre-season for many years. Certainly his form is not great in the VFL, but a lot of those earlier games he was not playing a lot of minutes, gaining fitness and simply just trying to get through games without breaking down.....which he eventually did. Sometimes you need to look past raw the numbers.

His hands are very very good as is his running ability for a big guy, I am pretty sure a fit Vardy is best 22 at many AFL clubs given the position he would play. However, there are mega concerns over his body especially his hip and it would be a medical dept call as much as any, In terms of style of player and what we need I think he is a very good fit and someone who can replace Cloke's role with the added bonus of being able to ruck.

Context behind numbers is crucial. You're right.

But players also have to be out on the field. He has only played 25 career (AFL) games and 52 VFL games. Playing so few games over seven years and more than the total number of games he has missed. Missing that many games offers no value. And when in those games he can't even get through the full games to get even adequate numbers, that isn't good enough.

His numbers at AFL level while promising early days were never quite AFL grade. He showed enough glimpses early days where you would play him under the assumption he would have developed into a best 22 standard performer.

But with so much time out of the game it hasn't come together for him and he is a ways back.

Even as a capable mark, in the VFL no games of more than six marks in the VFL isn't good enough.
Limited game time in many of his games while a different variable to talent, it's still indicative of a players overall output and performance. And it's probably overall worse than not having talent because it hurts teams from a rotational perspective, making things harder for the team.

For me with these injury prone guys, the key is only considering those who at least when they play produce. If they're still a player yet to establish themselves as productive AFL players I'm not interested.
An example of a key forward a couple of years back who proved a bargain was Jarrad Waite. Despite perception around his perceived inconsistency and the frustration he caused fans. His numbers were excellent.
From 2009-2014 (the years Carlton fans were frustrated at Waite) he played 78 games and managed 145 goals, 529 marks for 2 goals and 7 marks per game. Those are some good numbers and that's over a span of years where he played between 9-16 games per season.
For these types it's important not to pay them as much, but if they're unwanted and basically freebies. That's when these types (if they perform to a strong and productive level when they actually take the field) can be good gets.

North Melbourne with their relative success limiting injuries and extending careers over the years might be a good destination for Vardy if there is a place for him anywhere.

 

[hicksyshawks]

Allsop is named as Melbournes only category b rookie i see so does that mean if he slips through both the draft and rookie he will almost certainy be taken by melbourne for free as a project player? Also would you think he will slip through both the national and rookie drafts as he had a very consistent season finishing 2nd in the Morrish Medal where he kicked 29 goals from 19 games but also missed often. His season could very easily of had 35+ goals which would of changed his raft outlook entirely.

 

[Knightmare]

Allsop is named as Melbournes only category b rookie i see so does that mean if he slips through both the draft and rookie he will almost certainy be taken by melbourne for free as a project player? Also would you think he will slip through both the national and rookie drafts as he had a very consistent season finishing 2nd in the Morrish Medal where he kicked 29 goals from 19 games but also missed often. His season could very easily of had 35+ goals which would of changed his raft outlook entirely.

I've enjoyed Allsop's season and feel he is one of the better small forward prospects.

I doubt he goes national draft. I don't know how the priority works with being a general rookie listed player or being a category b rookie, given that's all new. But he may end up joining Melbourne with no certainty that he would be selected as a regular rookie listed player with a pretty good list of general forwards available in this draft.

 

[hicksyshawks]

I've enjoyed Allsop's season and feel he is one of the better small forward prospects.

I doubt he goes national draft. I don't know how the priority works with being a general rookie listed player or being a category b rookie, given that's all new. But he may end up joining Melbourne with no certainty that he would be selected as a regular rookie listed player with a pretty good list of general forwards available in this draft.

Where would you seeing him going?

 

[hicksyshawks]

as in national rookie or multicultural?

 

[Knightmare]

Where would you seeing him going?

I would predict (to guess) 70/30 that Allsop would be overlooked in the rookie draft and taken as a category b rookie by Melbourne.

That's my best guess based on Allsop only receiving a state combine invite and in talking to recruiters about their preferred small forwards Allsop usually does not receive a mention (though there is substantial variation in the names mentioned which suggests isn't an even group after Ainsworth).

 

[hicksyshawks]

what about his mate rat fowler? and what small fwd names come up often?

 

[Knightmare]

what about his mate rat fowler? and what small fwd names come up often?

Ainsworth is the consistently spoken about forward.

T.Stengle (SA), C.Brown, Daicos, Jarman and Fowler of those sub 180cm fwds are among those recruiters have spoken about.