Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[doodles98]

That's the problem with rookie bigs.

It's low % recruiting.

Key forwards very rarely come out of the rookie draft.

Key defenders can, but as with most other positions it's still somewhat uncommon.

Don't rate our rookie drafting Knightmare?

Do you have any insight into why nobody went for Xav Richards or Jonty S'Berg?

So:

Out
Swan
Cloke
McCaffer
Toovey
Brown
Witts
Frost
Williams
Marsh
Golds
Gault
Goodyear
Wyatt
In:
Wells
Mayne
WHE
Dunn
McCLarty
Brown
Kirby
Daicos
McCarthy
Schade
Mackie
Lynch
cat B

How do you rate the turnover this year? For the next few seasons; is our best 22 weakened or strengthened in your opinion and which of our new acquisitions has you the most excited?

 

[TradeDraft]

That's the problem with rookie bigs.

It's low % recruiting.

Key forwards very rarely come out of the rookie draft.

Key defenders can, but as with most other positions it's still somewhat uncommon.

Not Impossible to find some Descent KPP Prospects in the Rookie Draft but it is bit Far and Few Between.

The % is against the Boys but you never right them off Straight Away

 

[DaVe86]

I think we've identified this year that there were a few decent defenders available so we've fixed that deficiency up. Although McLarty and McCarthy can potentially play forward, I think they have been recruited with the thought of developing them into defenders.

I think our forward line is just as deficient in regards to developing KPP's, and we haven't really addressed that issue. However, next year is reportedly a strong KPF year so we may be addressing that issue then.

It is rare to find gun key forwards with late pick or rookie picks....but you can always find a few decent defenders. So I think we've done the right thing by topping up our Key defensive stocks.

Next year the focus must be on key forwards.

 

[Quicky]

Always open to ideas for over the break if there is something particularly of interest (draft/trade etc related) that you'd like me to write a piece on.

The plan at this stage anyway is this is my final piece for the year until next footy season.

Write a piece on the best players not to get drafted. Perhaps include some examples of players who were once over looked but made it to the AFL.

 

[Quicky]

I think we've identified this year that there were a few decent defenders available so we've fixed that deficiency up. Although McLarty and McCarthy can potentially play forward, I think they have been recruited with the thought of developing them into defenders.

I think our forward line is just as deficient in regards to developing KPP's, and we haven't really addressed that issue. However, next year is reportedly a strong KPF year so we may be addressing that issue then.

It is rare to find gun key forwards with late pick or rookie picks....but you can always find a few decent defenders. So I think we've done the right thing by topping up our Key defensive stocks.

Next year the focus must be on key forwards.

In trade or draft?

 

[swoop42]

I think we've identified this year that there were a few decent defenders available so we've fixed that deficiency up. Although McLarty and McCarthy can potentially play forward, I think they have been recruited with the thought of developing them into defenders.

I think our forward line is just as deficient in regards to developing KPP's, and we haven't really addressed that issue. However, next year is reportedly a strong KPF year so we may be addressing that issue then.

It is rare to find gun key forwards with late pick or rookie picks....but you can always find a few decent defenders. So I think we've done the right thing by topping up our Key defensive stocks.

Next year the focus must be on key forwards.

It already is.

 

[frizzle]

It already is.

Alright mate - Out with it.

 

[Knightmare]

Don't rate our rookie drafting Knightmare?

Do you have any insight into why nobody went for Xav Richards or Jonty S'Berg?

So:

Out
Swan
Cloke
McCaffer
Toovey
Brown
Witts
Frost
Williams
Marsh
Golds
Gault
Goodyear
Wyatt
In:
Wells
Mayne
WHE
Dunn
McCLarty
Brown
Kirby
Daicos
McCarthy
Schade
Mackie
Lynch
cat B

How do you rate the turnover this year? For the next few seasons; is our best 22 weakened or strengthened in your opinion and which of our new acquisitions has you the most excited?

Jonty is neither quick or a great kick. That and worry about his knees (actually fine) but due to Matt's issues that also has scared clubs somewhat more than they needed to be.

Don't have any particular insight into why Xavier Richards was not taken. He left Sydney, not liking the living expenses. Now he is left unemployed.

Our best 22 is clearly weakened and our depth also much worse on paper.

If we are better it will be on the back of general improvement and injuries rather than a successful offseason of recruiting, because the net losses on paper are much more of a factor than the net gains.

I think we've identified this year that there were a few decent defenders available so we've fixed that deficiency up. Although McLarty and McCarthy can potentially play forward, I think they have been recruited with the thought of developing them into defenders.

I think our forward line is just as deficient in regards to developing KPP's, and we haven't really addressed that issue. However, next year is reportedly a strong KPF year so we may be addressing that issue then.

It is rare to find gun key forwards with late pick or rookie picks....but you can always find a few decent defenders. So I think we've done the right thing by topping up our Key defensive stocks.

Next year the focus must be on key forwards.

Next year is the year for key forwards.

For perspective, five of my top 10 next year are key forwards or duel position key forward/rucks. One is a Brisbane Academy players and one of that group others is a sort of GWS Academy player who may/may not be next year depending on the AFL's ruling.

I'd be very keen to get at least one of that five to compliment Moore.

Write a piece on the best players not to get drafted. Perhaps include some examples of players who were once over looked but made it to the AFL.

Great idea. Running it by my employer.

Had planned my 2017 draft preview to be my final piece, but am open to continuing to produce content over the offseason here and there if there are other good ideas such as this.

 

[Gone Critical]

Our best 22 is clearly weakened and our depth also much worse on paper.

If we are better it will be on the back of general improvement and injuries rather than a successful offseason of recruiting, because the net losses on paper are much more of a factor than the net gains.

On paper our best 22 may have been weakened but the actual 22 that played in 2016 should be improved on. Of the 13 players off the list 7 essentially made no contribution on field to the 2016 outcome (Swan, Witts, MaCaffer, Gault, Goodyear, Golds, Wyatt) and none of the other 6 made more than an average contribution and most much less. Factor in better returns injury wise to Elliott, Fasolo, Moore, Reid, Scharenberg, Langdon, Ramsay, Sinclair, Adams and Broomhead which you would hope provide an decrease in productivity lost via injury in 2017 compared to 2016 (based on an expectation of less injury woes in 2017). We should already put better teams on the park in 2017 without even considering natural improvement in the list. Wells, Mayne, WHE and Dunns contribution hopefully surpasses the contribution in 2016 the 13 departees made.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

It's an interesting question is the list 2016 better than the now set 2017 list.

This means have the entrants been of more value than the departed?
The complete newbies only time will tell, but feel McLarty aside who knows, they may surprise?
I am more comfortable with McLarty because it seems he was higher rated but dropped more due to longer injuries. So that looks a fine pick up.

Looking at the deportees really Cloke is the one who get place some egg on our face.
But he too might be over the hill, no longer the great contested mark he once was. Looks slower but maybe there was other factors to his perceived slowish disposition.
So that will be interesting.

I'd much prefer Brown to Dunn.
I'm meh on Frost anyway.

Now we come to Williams who to me was such a tough nut, unsure if he will overcome his ball butcher aspects but he is so tough. So that's a loss. Maybe off field it was just too much, that's unknown ofcourse.

Love Wells in

 

[Knightmare]

On paper our best 22 may have been weakened but the actual 22 that played in 2016 should be improved on. Of the 13 players off the list 7 essentially made no contribution on field to the 2016 outcome (Swan, Witts, MaCaffer, Gault, Goodyear, Golds, Wyatt) and none of the other 6 made more than an average contribution and most much less. Factor in better returns injury wise to Elliott, Fasolo, Moore, Reid, Scharenberg, Langdon, Ramsay, Sinclair, Adams and Broomhead which you would hope provide an decrease in productivity lost via injury in 2017 compared to 2016 (based on an expectation of less injury woes in 2017). We should already put better teams on the park in 2017 without even considering natural improvement in the list. Wells, Mayne, WHE and Dunns contribution hopefully surpasses the contribution in 2016 the 13 departees made.

If the question was where do I expect/predict Collingwood finish in 2017 my expectation is top 8 and my prediction is better than 2016 (based on the players returning you mention and the natural development of our youth).

But from a list build perspective looking longer term, our kpps + rucks are depleted, our immediate depth is depleted and there are some pretty solid performers lost with our best 22 looking weaker down the bottom end depending on views of those lost.

Wells and Mayne are the only list additions I like, but looking at the salary cap hits we're taking to add both of them, I'd have passed on both. Hoskin-Elliott we overpaid for when we didn't need to (consider GWS' other trades and how other teams got better players than we did for much less). Dunn was a savvy choice and no worse than Brown/Frost, but given his age we didn't necessarily need to move out of those guys and into Dunn.

As per my ideas pre draft and before draft week I would have gone with the unwanted veterans - Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo, Drew Petrie, Jimmy Bartel, Ricky Henderson etc if they could be convinced to play on. Sign them for sensible money and then there is a veteran core who can provide leadership and make us more competitive on game day.

The list losses I'm not keen on losing. The likes of Marley Williams, Travis Cloke, they played well below their ability and are better than their 2016 seasons. Brown is solid and was not someone who had to go etc.

The club have their own ideas.

Let's hope they prove to be the right ones.

 

[doodles98]

Jonty is neither quick or a great kick. That and worry about his knees (actually fine) but due to Matt's issues that also has scared clubs somewhat more than they needed to be.

Don't have any particular insight into why Xavier Richards was not taken. He left Sydney, not liking the living expenses. Now he is left unemployed.

Our best 22 is clearly weakened and our depth also much worse on paper.

If we are better it will be on the back of general improvement and injuries rather than a successful offseason of recruiting, because the net losses on paper are much more of a factor than the net gains.

Thanks mate.
That's pretty much how I read it. More especially, our list depth for quality injury coverage has been significantly weakened. Players like Degoey, Aish and Maynard stepping up a cog will be crucial.

 

[mike123]

Don't have any particular insight into why Xavier Richards was not taken. He left Sydney, not liking the living expenses. Now he is left unemployed.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-11-01/exswan-xavier-richards-not-fazed-if-clubs-overlook-him

DELISTED Sydney forward Xavier Richards says he is "not fazed" if he doesn't get another AFL opportunity after being cut by the Swans.

Not sure if this has anything to do with it but he just seemed like he didn't want a second chance enough. Compared to most dfa who say they're itching to get another opportunity. Not sure but I think it may have put some clubs off.

He was also Training with Essendon who rookie listed McKernan so they had that position covered.

TBH I didn't rate him.

 

[TradeDraft]

Next year is the year for key forwards.

For perspective, five of my top 10 next year are key forwards or duel position key forward/rucks. One is a Brisbane Academy players and one of that group others is a sort of GWS Academy player who may/may not be next year depending on the AFL's ruling.

I'd be very keen to get at least one of that five to compliment Moore..

What Kind of Pick would it take you think(At the Moment) to be in a Running for one next year?

 

[Gone Critical]

If the question was where do I expect/predict Collingwood finish in 2017 my expectation is top 8 and my prediction is better than 2016 (based on the players returning you mention and the natural development of our youth).

But from a list build perspective looking longer term, our kpps + rucks are depleted, our immediate depth is depleted and there are some pretty solid performers lost with our best 22 looking weaker down the bottom end depending on views of those lost.

Wells and Mayne are the only list additions I like, but looking at the salary cap hits we're taking to add both of them, I'd have passed on both. Hoskin-Elliott we overpaid for when we didn't need to (consider GWS' other trades and how other teams got better players than we did for much less). Dunn was a savvy choice and no worse than Brown/Frost, but given his age we didn't necessarily need to move out of those guys and into Dunn.

As per my ideas pre draft and before draft week I would have gone with the unwanted veterans - Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo, Drew Petrie, Jimmy Bartel, Ricky Henderson etc if they could be convinced to play on. Sign them for sensible money and then there is a veteran core who can provide leadership and make us more competitive on game day.

The list losses I'm not keen on losing. The likes of Marley Williams, Travis Cloke, they played well below their ability and are better than their 2016 seasons. Brown is solid and was not someone who had to go etc.

The club have their own ideas.

Let's hope they prove to be the right ones.

Interesting thoughts. We should improve in 2017 but I feel will still be short of finals.

I can see the deficiencies you list and believe Wells especially will be a vuluable pick up. Like you say we are theadbare in the ruck and desperately need some KPP improvement. The ones that we have picked up are all on a bit of a prayer but it will make a tremendous difference if 2 of them, meaning Keeffe, McLarty, Scharche or McCarthy can step up. 2 of them making it hopeful rather than realistic.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Interesting thoughts. We should improve in 2017 but I feel will still be short of finals.

I can see the deficiencies you list and believe Wells especially will be a vuluable pick up. Like you say we are theadbare in the ruck and desperately need some KPP improvement. The ones that we have picked up are all on a bit of a prayer but it will make a tremendous difference if 2 of them, meaning Keeffe, McLarty, Scharche or McCarthy can step up. 2 of them making it hopeful rather than realistic.

The ruck "deficiency" is interesting.
If Grundy remains fit and keeps his progress then we should be right.
Grundy strikes me as top 3 or thereabouts of rucks.
Ofcourse if he's injured Cox is essentially tall, so we might be a bit short (intended pun).

All things considered Grundy gives us 10 years to look forward to.
Maybe Cox keeps developing and is at least Witts level

 

[Knightmare]

What Kind of Pick would it take you think(At the Moment) to be in a Running for one next year?

Unclear at this stage.

One of them that I rate hasn't been consistently a first round selection (yet).

So that's to be determined. That player may rise. Others may fall.

Jeremy Goddard and Luke Strnadica both were rated by many top 10 picks going into the year and this year became players we were asking ourselves "would they get drafted?" so movement happen in a year of junior footy.

The ruck "deficiency" is interesting.
If Grundy remains fit and keeps his progress then we should be right.
Grundy strikes me as top 3 or thereabouts of rucks.
Ofcourse if he's injured Cox is essentially tall, so we might be a bit short (intended pun).

All things considered Grundy gives us 10 years to look forward to.
Maybe Cox keeps developing and is at least Witts level

I think Cox slots in and problem solved if Grundy misses any games through injury/suspension/rest.

It's not something I'm overly concerned by.

We're not a contending team for extra depth to be a priority.

Having an extra ruckman, key forward or key defender as insurance beyond developing stocks who project as future best 22 players I see no benefit of having.

I'd play small in key position posts or through the ruck if injuries happen and not lose any sleep. Only if top 4 would I be thinking about having the coverage beyond developing players who are there to pass their peers by, with an exception being veterans who still plays to a best 22 standard.

 

[Tbone McGraw]

If the question was where do I expect/predict Collingwood finish in 2017 my expectation is top 8 and my prediction is better than 2016 (based on the players returning you mention and the natural development of our youth).

But from a list build perspective looking longer term, our kpps + rucks are depleted, our immediate depth is depleted and there are some pretty solid performers lost with our best 22 looking weaker down the bottom end depending on views of those lost.

Wells and Mayne are the only list additions I like, but looking at the salary cap hits we're taking to add both of them, I'd have passed on both. Hoskin-Elliott we overpaid for when we didn't need to (consider GWS' other trades and how other teams got better players than we did for much less). Dunn was a savvy choice and no worse than Brown/Frost, but given his age we didn't necessarily need to move out of those guys and into Dunn.

As per my ideas pre draft and before draft week I would have gone with the unwanted veterans - Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo, Drew Petrie, Jimmy Bartel, Ricky Henderson etc if they could be convinced to play on. Sign them for sensible money and then there is a veteran core who can provide leadership and make us more competitive on game day.

The list losses I'm not keen on losing. The likes of Marley Williams, Travis Cloke, they played well below their ability and are better than their 2016 seasons. Brown is solid and was not someone who had to go etc.

The club have their own ideas.

Let's hope they prove to be the right ones.

This is an awesome post.

You are very intelligent Knightmare. I also finally saw your photo on espn and also a good looking young man.

By the way, i am not trying to hit on you as i am not that way inclined. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

This is an awesome post.

You are very intelligent Knightmare. I also finally saw your photo on espn and also a good looking young man.

By the way, i am not trying to hit on you as i am not that way inclined. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

 

[TW Sherrin]

Jonty is neither quick or a great kick. That and worry about his knees (actually fine) but due to Matt's issues that also has scared clubs somewhat more than they needed to be.

Don't have any particular insight into why Xavier Richards was not taken. He left Sydney, not liking the living expenses. Now he is left unemployed.

Our best 22 is clearly weakened and our depth also much worse on paper.

If we are better it will be on the back of general improvement and injuries rather than a successful offseason of recruiting, because the net losses on paper are much more of a factor than the net gains.



Next year is the year for key forwards.

For perspective, five of my top 10 next year are key forwards or duel position key forward/rucks. One is a Brisbane Academy players and one of that group others is a sort of GWS Academy player who may/may not be next year depending on the AFL's ruling.

I'd be very keen to get at least one of that five to compliment Moore.



Great idea. Running it by my employer.

Had planned my 2017 draft preview to be my final piece, but am open to continuing to produce content over the offseason here and there if there are other good ideas such as this.

I disagree our team is weaker. only Swan was a certainty to play ones from those we lost.

Whilst Wells, Maine, Whe are certainties to me.

To me we have improved our list significantly.

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

A writing idea KM - this might be more of a slow burner - maybe do a breakdown/ranking of the best clubs at drafting outside the top 20 ie which clubs would you rate as most successful in their ability to select talent beyond the first round. Maybe shorten the parameters to the last 5 or 10 years. Guess you could rate clubs across the whole draft but GWS have had a pretty obvious mortgage on things in that respect plus I sometimes think the really clever drafting comes with later picks. If that's too much research maybe just a top 10 best ever draft steals with a short write up on each - Swan, Parker, Mitchell, Hird etc. to be followed by top ten biggest draft busts. I know the papers do this stuff from time to time but I imagine your breakdown being more interesting/methodical than a rushed journo's thought bubble.

Or some variation of the above. Fans like to argue and speculate about who is best or worst at the drafting caper. Richmond and Carlton fans lately have been in the habit of sledging each other. It could provide some good talking points. And if you don't get it approved this year you could consider using it as a front ended promo for next year's draft notes.

Just random ideas so no stress! Very happy to see you getting to write in a formal capacity now after treating us all to your hard work for years.

Hope you're enjoying it!

 

[TradeDraft]

The most likely to come off the Rookie List and be a Good AFL Players are Small/Medium Players and Ruckman.

So going by that Lynch and Mackie are our best Chances from the Rookie Draft

 

[Knightmare]

This is an awesome post.

You are very intelligent Knightmare. I also finally saw your photo on espn and also a good looking young man.

By the way, i am not trying to hit on you as i am not that way inclined. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

Thanks for the kind words Tbone McGraw.

It took a long time to actually take a photo that fit the required specifications. The final one has me looking all teary (too much flash from too many photos). The worst one taken ended up being the only one that fit their specifications so I was stuck with an awful photo.
Perhaps I should have got ESPN to take an updated photo last week when I was in their office?
An idea for next year. I'm not too fussed.

A writing idea KM - this might be more of a slow burner - maybe do a breakdown/ranking of the best clubs at drafting outside the top 20 ie which clubs would you rate as most successful in their ability to select talent beyond the first round. Maybe shorten the parameters to the last 5 or 10 years. Guess you could rate clubs across the whole draft but GWS have had a pretty obvious mortgage on things in that respect plus I sometimes think the really clever drafting comes with later picks. If that's too much research maybe just a top 10 best ever draft steals with a short write up on each - Swan, Parker, Mitchell, Hird etc. to be followed by top ten biggest draft busts. I know the papers do this stuff from time to time but I imagine your breakdown being more interesting/methodical than a rushed journo's thought bubble.

Or some variation of the above. Fans like to argue and speculate about who is best or worst at the drafting caper. Richmond and Carlton fans lately have been in the habit of sledging each other. It could provide some good talking points. And if you don't get it approved this year you could consider using it as a front ended promo for next year's draft notes.

Just random ideas so no stress! Very happy to see you getting to write in a formal capacity now after treating us all to your hard work for years.

Hope you're enjoying it!

Love ideas. Always listening to them. Anything draft/trade/list management related always will have me listening.

Nothing is ever too much research for me
So no stress there.

Ideas along these lines excite me perhaps more than they should.

It's interesting you note my writing style by comparison to most media people. It's something over the past few weeks I've been breaking down myself.

Within media/journalism the concept is have little bits of knowledge everywhere so you can say something (generic) and just tick the box.

Completing a business degree and all my studies being research based, going deep into examples to back up everything I say and going into all the details and then proceeding to express my opinions, it's what I know and is just what I do out of habit. It's good in some respects as it probably over time will make me more credible/not click bait, but from media research the problem with being this way practically is people (if we're to talk a majority) aren't going to spend the time reading it all.
So given this over the next year while I plan to continue being me, the next stage in my writing development would be to just prioritise into the most important details and become more concise overall.

From a reader perspective, I'd personally be more drawn to details/in depth style of writing - based on my own media consumption patterns, as you may also be given you've long been one of my supporters on here.

Anyway, I'm just going into my own train of thought.

If ESPN express a particular interest in me writing AFL pieces over Christmas then I'll strongly consider this idea. It's a good topic.

Anything research heavy, bring it on!

The most likely to come off the Rookie List and be a Good AFL Players are Small/Medium Players and Ruckman.

So going by that Lynch and Mackie are our best Chances from the Rookie Draft

Historically that's true. Though some good key defenders came out of last years draft late/rookie (one of the better years of this happening).

If you look up: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis

I go through positional by position (by type - with a particular focus on ruck/kpf/kpd) what the success rates are like in the various parts of the draft to give you some idea since it seems to be something of interest to you and something you continue to bring up in this thread.
This should give you the knowledge you're seeking.

 

[Tbone McGraw]

Thanks for the kind words Tbone McGraw.

It took a long time to actually take a photo that fit the required specifications. The final one has me looking all teary (too much flash from too many photos). The worst one taken ended up being the only one that fit their specifications so I was stuck with an awful photo.
Perhaps I should have got ESPN to take an updated photo last week when I was in their office?
An idea for next year. I'm not too fussed.



Love ideas. Always listening to them. Anything draft/trade/list management related always will have me listening.

Nothing is ever too much research for me
So no stress there.

Ideas along these lines excite me perhaps more than they should.

It's interesting you note my writing style by comparison to most media people. It's something over the past few weeks I've been breaking down myself.

Within media/journalism the concept is have little bits of knowledge everywhere so you can say something (generic) and just tick the box.

Completing a business degree and all my studies being research based, going deep into examples to back up everything I say and going into all the details and then proceeding to express my opinions, it's what I know and is just what I do out of habit. It's good in some respects as it probably over time will make me more credible/not click bait, but from media research the problem with being this way practically is people (if we're to talk a majority) aren't going to spend the time reading it all.
So given this over the next year while I plan to continue being me, the next stage in my writing development would be to just prioritise into the most important details and become more concise overall.

From a reader perspective, I'd personally be more drawn to details/in depth style of writing - based on my own media consumption patterns, as you may also be given you've long been one of my supporters on here.

Anyway, I'm just going into my own train of thought.

If ESPN express a particular interest in me writing AFL pieces over Christmas then I'll strongly consider this idea. It's a good topic.

Anything research heavy, bring it on!



Historically that's true. Though some good key defenders came out of last years draft late/rookie (one of the better years of this happening).

If you look up: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis

I go through positional by position (by type - with a particular focus on ruck/kpf/kpd) what the success rates are like in the various parts of the draft to give you some idea since it seems to be something of interest to you and something you continue to bring up in this thread.
This should give you the knowledge you're seeking.

You are a true legend!!

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

Yes!! Very good KM. Great self awareness and desire to evolve in your work. I teach senior English and have done a bit of writing over the years. You are definitely on the right track in understanding what you need to do. Your huge strength is your depth of research and knowledge which gives your writing weight and credibility which is why you have so many interested readers on here. But for that wider audience you do need to distil and craft it to that 'essential read.' Practice your editing to get those sentences to really flow. You'll get better and better all the time. I know how much you like to self improve. Yes mate I am a big supporter. I admire anyone who follows their passion and works hard for it. Keep up the great work mate and go pies!