Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[wednesdaywarrior]

PS Had a chuckle at T bone's post above. It was fun to get a glimpse of the real Knightmare on your page. I once commented a couple of years back that if you spend long enough on big Footy you start to imagine people looking like their avatars. You forget people actually have a real human face/persona! It was similarly great to get a glimpse of the famous Dave when he featured on the broadcast this year and then put that as his avatar!

 

[Saintly Viewed]

But remember folks, the historical data is but a guide to what may happen.
The averages, the numbers they do tell the tale, but it's guide only to the future.

So each player chosen now can work hard, extract the most from themselves and with a slice of good fortune one, two or all could have a successful career.

But it will be tough.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

PS Had a chuckle at T bone's post above. It was fun to get a glimpse of the real Knightmare on your page. I once commented a couple of years back that if you spend long enough on big Footy you start to imagine people looking like their avatars. You forget people actually have a real human face/persona!

But I really use my image

 

[Tbone McGraw]

But I really use my image

Are you the horse or jockey?

If you are the horse, i congratulate you on your typing with a hoof.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Are you the horse or jockey?

If you are the horse, i congratulate you on your typing with a hoof.

Was well trained.
Horse I'm afraid.
Little Beadman always trying to smack me, easier to win easily....

 

[Tbone McGraw]

Was well trained.
Horse I'm afraid.
Little Beadman always trying to smack me, easier to win easily....

So many questions i have to ask you but so little time.

However, can i ask what it means to be "hung like a horse"?

I get that comment all the time.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

So many questions i have to ask you but so little time.

However, can i ask what it means to be "hung like a horse"?

I get that comment all the time.

A horse of male gender, wether entire or a gelding when in relaxed fashion, their anatomy can just hang down loosely and it reaches the ground so to speak.

If you ever visit a raving stable or any horse stable, observing relaxing horses at times, out it drops.

 

[Tbone McGraw]

A horse of male gender, wether entire or a gelding when in relaxed fashion, their anatomy can just hang down loosely and it reaches the ground so to speak.

If you ever visit a raving stable or any horse stable, observing relaxing horses at times, out it drops.

Makes sense now

Lets get this back on topic.

Knightmare, the bloke i think who will be best player from our draft is Callum Brown.

Your thoughts?

Apologies if you have already answered this.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Makes sense now

Lets get this back on topic.

Knightmare, the bloke i think who will be best player from our draft is Callum Brown.

Your thoughts?

Apologies if you have already answered this.

I'd go for McLarty myself.
Suspect he will become a strong 200 game player type for us.
Seems to have head screwed on well.

 

[Tbone McGraw]

I'd go for McLarty myself.
Suspect he will become a strong 200 game player type for us.
Seems to have head screwed on well.

Possibly but i just love the work ethic of Brown. if you get a chance, listen to what Hine says about him.

Anyway, i still think our 2 best pickups of the whole trade period are Wells and Mayne. These 2 add class (Wells) and leadership/defensive pressure (Mayne).

 

[jmac70]

Possibly but i just love the work ethic of Brown. if you get a chance, listen to what Hine says about him.

Anyway, i still think our 2 best pickups of the whole trade period are Wells and Mayne. These 2 add class (Wells) and grunt (Mayne).

Best two are Brown and Daicos.....by a mile.

 

[Tbone McGraw]

Best two are Brown and Daicos.....by a mile.

Not sure if this Daicos will make it.

However, the more i hear about him, the more i like.

 

[jmac70]

Not sure if this Daicos will make it.

However, the more i hear about him, the more i like.

He will make it, as will Brown, what's more, they will play in our next flag. Take it to the bank.

 

[Tbone McGraw]

He will make it, as will Brown, what's more, they will play in our next flag. Take it to the bank.

Massive call, but i dont mind it.

As a pies fan, i struggle to accept big calls. Too much disappointment.

 

[jmac70]

Massive call, but i dont mind it.

As a pies fan, i struggle to accept big calls. Too much disappointment.

As a Pies fan in his mid 40s I can understand your view point. I believe though that these boys are different. Their fathers refused to accept our place as a team of tragedy, and I don't believe their boys will either.

 

[Knightmare]

Makes sense now

Lets get this back on topic.

Knightmare, the bloke i think who will be best player from our draft is Callum Brown.

Your thoughts?

Apologies if you have already answered this.

That's a great question.

I'm probably with you on Brown. He has the highest probability from this new group of being AFL standard. His numbers this year were solid and in hearing Derek interviewed I can't help but think there may be some more growth in him (which he needs at sub 180cm).

I don't agree on his assessment regarding Brown's skills, and decision making while fine again I'm not prepaired to regard as highly.

But he's a real tryer who should get the most out of himself. Whatever that happens to be.

I'd go for McLarty myself.
Suspect he will become a strong 200 game player type for us.
Seems to have head screwed on well.

McLarty I see as someone who may go either way.

The contested marking and size/strength in 1v1 contests makes me think, maybe - as the two most important elements to being a successful key defender in the modern game. Shoulder is slight concern but also a very early bloomer makes me think potentially limited upside. Only ok rather than good athlete, some skill concerns. But I'm regarding him as slightly against the odds to make it (with the others lower probability again).

For highish probability Henry Schade I think is someone who will provide solid depth and actually compete reasonably well for a position v Keeffe and Dunn with his intercept marking pretty good. Dunn is my start of season key defender, but Schade for me is in that same conversation and maybe slightly better than Keeffe given his two year absence.

 

[Soups]

Love the preview for next year KM. We must get two picks in the first round next year. It could really set us up for the future if we take two kids next year plus plucking a free agent.

 

[TradeDraft]

Historically that's true. Though some good key defenders came out of last years draft late/rookie (one of the better years of this happening).

Hopefully that Trend Continues and at least 1 of McCarthy and Schade can make it at AFL Level

 

[Knightmare]

Love the preview for next year KM. We must get two picks in the first round next year. It could really set us up for the future if we take two kids next year plus plucking a free agent.

For a bit of info re. draft positions.

Noah Balta is not yet being spoken about as a consensus 1st rounhd pick. Perhaps next year once more people see him play that changes, but for now he isn't quite spoken about as the top 10 pick I see him being at the end of next year.

One who could fall is Callum Coleman-Jones. He is a big unit at 199cm, 98kg and is someone I could see sliding next year outside the first round potentially. Right now he is SA's biggest and most advanced but if he remains much of a muchness to this year he could really plummet down draft boards as Luke Strnadica did this year.

My position is it's probably more a year to retain picks rather than move up into a second, first round pick, though I wouldn't object if it's a non-essential player we'd be moving.

Overall I'd be strongly in favour of a key position themed draft next season with some of the players available.

We could pretty easily end up with something like:
eg. Balta (1st round)
Coleman-Jones (2nd round - if he slides/improves very little)
3rd round - KPD
And then add some outside types or fill other positional needs late/rookie

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Imagine a year if we shared two future elites

Eg A Franklin / Roughead combination.

Wow.

Though I still wonder how did Brodie Grundy ever slide to us.
Now that was a pick up.

 

[4#Didak#4]

Now I for one was a bit perplexed when we blitzed our key backs. However, having time to digest this there is an element of Moneyball about it all.

In: Dunn, Schade, McLarty, Keefe
Out: Brown, Frost, Marsh

Essentially we have one maybe at a stretch two best 22 positions available when we lost those 3 defenders. Marsh was not a choice to leave but he would have been on the fringe of the 22 anyway.

I think we have improved key position defender depth, for a very small reduction in quality and a big reduction in salary.

Brown is the contentious one who on the general measure of a FB ticks boxes. However he was offered a juicy contract from St Kilda so we would have paid for the honor of him on our list. Brown's main issue is his lack of versatility and a dwindling number of match ups for him, this meant he was in and out of the side at times (not to mention his penchant for injury). Dunn I do not see as a like for like but he will at times be a better option match up wise. He will not be on huge dollars and will use the ball a lot better. Keeffe will be suited to those tall 200+ forwards that are becoming more common and that Brown struggled mobility & agility wise to go with.

Schade really will step into Frost/Marsh shoes and be trying to break into best 22 but otherwise is depth. He will be substantially cheaper than both these guys - Frost's contract was overly generous at Brissy. We do not lose much if anything in terms of output by having Schade in and Frost out.

McLarty is the step to the future but he will still be useful in terms of depth if injuries hit, and will I think go past most of these guys relatively quickly and hopefully McCarthy develops too but I see him more as experimental.

It seems initially bad on paper (not sexy as they say) but we haven't lost that much in net quality and when you weigh up the almighty $$ the return on investment should see these moves as winners.

 

[jmac70]

For a bit of info re. draft positions.

Noah Balta is not yet being spoken about as a consensus 1st rounhd pick. Perhaps next year once more people see him play that changes, but for now he isn't quite spoken about as the top 10 pick I see him being at the end of next year.

One who could fall is Callum Coleman-Jones. He is a big unit at 199cm, 98kg and is someone I could see sliding next year outside the first round potentially. Right now he is SA's biggest and most advanced but if he remains much of a muchness to this year he could really plummet down draft boards as Luke Strnadica did this year.

My position is it's probably more a year to retain picks rather than move up into a second, first round pick, though I wouldn't object if it's a non-essential player we'd be moving.

Overall I'd be strongly in favour of a key position themed draft next season with some of the players available.

We could pretty easily end up with something like:
eg. Balta (1st round)
Coleman-Jones (2nd round - if he slides/improves very little)
3rd round - KPD
And then add some outside types or fill other positional needs late/rookie

Every time I watch Moneyball I think of you.

 

[Knightmare]

Imagine a year if we shared two future elites

Eg A Franklin / Roughead combination.

Wow.

Though I still wonder how did Brodie Grundy ever slide to us.
Now that was a pick up.

Grundy is a ripper and as I and many others were saying at the time. He never should have dropped.

Next year could be the year to get a Franklin/Roughead inside the first round and it's not out of the question we could replicate Hawthorn's success going tall there if we have the pick/picks.

Now I for one was a bit perplexed when we blitzed our key backs. However, having time to digest this there is an element of Moneyball about it all.

In: Dunn, Schade, McLarty, Keefe
Out: Brown, Frost, Marsh

Essentially we have one maybe at a stretch two best 22 positions available when we lost those 3 defenders. Marsh was not a choice to leave but he would have been on the fringe of the 22 anyway.

I think we have improved key position defender depth, for a very small reduction in quality and a big reduction in salary.

Brown is the contentious one who on the general measure of a FB ticks boxes. However he was offered a juicy contract from St Kilda so we would have paid for the honor of him on our list. Brown's main issue is his lack of versatility and a dwindling number of match ups for him, this meant he was in and out of the side at times (not to mention his penchant for injury). Dunn I do not see as a like for like but he will at times be a better option match up wise. He will not be on huge dollars and will use the ball a lot better. Keeffe will be suited to those tall 200+ forwards that are becoming more common and that Brown struggled mobility & agility wise to go with.

Schade really will step into Frost/Marsh shoes and be trying to break into best 22 but otherwise is depth. He will be substantially cheaper than both these guys - Frost's contract was overly generous at Brissy. We do not lose much if anything in terms of output by having Schade in and Frost out.

McLarty is the step to the future but he will still be useful in terms of depth if injuries hit, and will I think go past most of these guys relatively quickly and hopefully McCarthy develops too but I see him more as experimental.

It seems initially bad on paper (not sexy as they say) but we haven't lost that much in net quality and when you weigh up the almighty $$ the return on investment should see these moves as winners.

It's just a shuffle of names really.

McLarty can be used back or forward. My preference is back with his attributes seeing him suited to play down back.

Dunn/Schade/Keeffe v Brown/Frost/Marsh is just a shuffle of name. No real improvement, no real loss.

Brown defensively is the most solid of that group. Schade may be the best intercept mark of that group. Dunn maybe the most complete as the only genuine two way player from that group.

Overall it doesn't matter who of those six we have/don't have. None are elite but they're all adequate and able to play at AFL level.

My personal dislike towards the moves is in moving players away, it ruins chemistry and continuity build from a group playing together for years over time. A successful back half needs year together to gel.

That whole key defence situation is shoulder shrug stuff for me. Big picture, clarity is lacking as to who is the high quality key defender to pair with Reid now (Dunn is the better of those presently that we have) and who long term will fill our key position posts. Could McLarty be one? Time will tell. But he's more a chance than certainty.

Every time I watch Moneyball I think of you.

Really enjoyable book and movie.

Great concept too.

 

[TradeDraft]

Really enjoyable book and movie.

Great concept too.

Would Moneyball work in the AFL?

Its different to US Sports

 

[Greening Magic]

If the question was where do I expect/predict Collingwood finish in 2017 my expectation is top 8 and my prediction is better than 2016 (based on the players returning you mention and the natural development of our youth).

But from a list build perspective looking longer term, our kpps + rucks are depleted, our immediate depth is depleted and there are some pretty solid performers lost with our best 22 looking weaker down the bottom end depending on views of those lost.

Wells and Mayne are the only list additions I like, but looking at the salary cap hits we're taking to add both of them, I'd have passed on both. Hoskin-Elliott we overpaid for when we didn't need to (consider GWS' other trades and how other teams got better players than we did for much less). Dunn was a savvy choice and no worse than Brown/Frost, but given his age we didn't necessarily need to move out of those guys and into Dunn.

As per my ideas pre draft and before draft week I would have gone with the unwanted veterans - Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo, Drew Petrie, Jimmy Bartel, Ricky Henderson etc if they could be convinced to play on. Sign them for sensible money and then there is a veteran core who can provide leadership and make us more competitive on game day.

The list losses I'm not keen on losing. The likes of Marley Williams, Travis Cloke, they played well below their ability and are better than their 2016 seasons. Brown is solid and was not someone who had to go etc.

The club have their own ideas.

Let's hope they prove to be the right ones.

Gee I disagree with so much of this post.

Marsh is the only key position player I regret us losing and not sure the club could have done anything about that. In fact I'm sure they would have kept Brown or Frost if they thought it was a real possibility. Dunn then required when Marsh went home. (Keefe is there for backup as well but is really an unknown quantity, no to hopeful with him)
Witts complete plodder and reminds me of having Cam Wood as back up, would rather go with Cox if Brodie misses.
The main beef you have with Wells and Mayne is the salary we are paying them but it's only a problem if it prevents us from recruiting a star in the future or lose one of our youngsters to more cash, I'm pretty sure the list managers spend all year on this stuff and know the structure of contracts going forward. If their salary costs us in the future then I'll join the criticism.

Harvey the only one of those veterans that I would have entertained and would rather roll the dice with Wells as I think his impact could be greater if he holds up. As for NDS, Petrie, Henderson, and Bartel, I wouldn't have even entertained any of them. Them making us more competitive game day is for the likes of Elliott and co returning and the youngsters improving, not old list cloggers here for one year. I'd rather see Ramsey and Shaz be given time instead of Henderson who is a very 'uncontested' footballer. NDS is another 'uncontested' beast who keeps Aish. Wills, Phillips and co in the VFL , they should all be trying to break/cement into the 22 without him in the road. Petrie was putrid last year. Bartel was retired by Geelong at the perfect time.

(I don't know enough about WHE to comment on him)

Caveat: Always enjoy reading your stuff KM even if I disagree.