Opinion Collingwood and Richmond, who finishes higher in 2023?

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Fact is Carton asked, and received, a handout from the AFL.

Don’t think you’ll find the big clubs grovelling like that.

Some clubs pride themselves on being big, some clubs pride themselves on being successful.

16 is still larger than 15 in 2023.

But this is a thread about Collingwood and their participation next season.

 

[HAPPY CHEFFY]

Collingwood top 4, Richmond 7th or 8th.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

When you consider the facts, 2 in 64 years, sounds about right MR.

The useless campaigners have only actually won one Grand Final in those 64 years. And even that one was played just as the next season was about to start.

They have dead set not won a Grand Final on the date scheduled for it in 64 years. Ludicrous state of affairs.

 

[sawyer]

Delusion is real.

Hopefully they address the issues with ARC in 2023...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I am familiar with the concept, but it's a useless concept.

Were Marlion Pickett or Liam Baker in Richmond's best 22 at the start of 2019? Nathan Broad or Jack Graham at the start of 2017?

I don't subscribe to the concept and therefore don't waste my time thinking about it or discussing it.

Lol. You make a post discussing the concept of best 22 and add that you don’t waste your time thinking about it(this is obvious from your poorly made points) or discussing it.

You need a break, 2023 has been a bloody long year for you Fadge.

 

[Danw0w]

Delusion is real.

You're right. I meant only Collingwood and Geelong fans.

 

[Boppo]

Richmond around 10th..Pies top 6.

 

[fishardansin]

I don't think it is close. Not writing off the possibility that Richmond has a disaster year with injuries and recruits don't settle and the walls close in, however, they had all that last year.

Collingwood had a lucky run with close wins through the middle of the year and Richmond had the complete opposite. Collingwood's percentage of 104 vs Richmond's of 121 is the clearest reminder of where these two teams are at.

Adding the size of Dusty, Hopper and Taranto around the ball will make a big difference to Richmond's fleet-footed short people. I also expect that it allows Dusty to play a lot more forward and that combined with Lynch means that they have a more well-rounded forward line. They also have the same level of intercepting defenders, but with Bolta there is another string to their bow. I hope for Richmond's sake that we don't see a lot of Riewoldt and Tarrant. If those two are playing a lot of VFL footy at full fitness, then Richmond is going to be a side well entrenched in the top 4.

I "expect" Collingwood to be just in or just out of the finals. I don't write off a bottom 6 finish for them either. Depends on how they bounce back from what looks like a 1-3 start to the year.

 

[Ginnieboy]

A lot will depend on Dusty, if he catches fire Tiges finish in the 4, in saying that the Pies could make the 4 as well, if Dusty has another down year I’m confident Collingwood finish higher.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Collingwood

 

[JustaBattler]

Richmond - easy.

 

[Osho]

It's always tough fulfulling expectations after the excitement and heroics of the wedding night. Can that acme, that climax, be recaptured? It will require a more sophisticated approach than the Pie's wham bam approach of 2022 which won't work the 2nd time round, when it didn't fully work the first time round. We have seen that. We need more. Have they acquired more wrinkles over the Summer?

The Tiges at least have shown great adaptibility to reperform their epic deeds, twice in fact. But the last 2 years have shown deterioration, a few hair plugs and some skin tightening may not be enough to fool everyone.

 

[Osho]

fleet-footed short people

ROAR!
Your delicacy is much appreciated.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I don't think it is close. Not writing off the possibility that Richmond has a disaster year with injuries and recruits don't settle and the walls close in, however, they had all that last year.

Collingwood had a lucky run with close wins through the middle of the year and Richmond had the complete opposite. Collingwood's percentage of 104 vs Richmond's of 121 is the clearest reminder of where these two teams are at.

Adding the size of Dusty, Hopper and Taranto around the ball will make a big difference to Richmond's fleet-footed short people. I also expect that it allows Dusty to play a lot more forward and that combined with Lynch means that they have a more well-rounded forward line. They also have the same level of intercepting defenders, but with Bolta there is another string to their bow. I hope for Richmond's sake that we don't see a lot of Riewoldt and Tarrant. If those two are playing a lot of VFL footy at full fitness, then Richmond is going to be a side well entrenched in the top 4.

I "expect" Collingwood to be just in or just out of the finals. I don't write off a bottom 6 finish for them either. Depends on how they bounce back from what looks like a 1-3 start to the year.

Collingwood’s 2022 season was more worthy of a 9-10th finish. They went 7-0 in games decided by under a goal and 11-1 in games under 12-points.

They’ll need to improve a lot to make top-4 as they won’t have that sort of record in close games again. And I don’t think they’ll be good enough in 2023 to win loads of games by large margins as their forward line isn’t yet capable of kicking big scores but they defend very well, so close games will be regular until they find some decent forwards.



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[My Tilly]

I don't think it is close. Not writing off the possibility that Richmond has a disaster year with injuries and recruits don't settle and the walls close in, however, they had all that last year.

Collingwood had a lucky run with close wins through the middle of the year and Richmond had the complete opposite. Collingwood's percentage of 104 vs Richmond's of 121 is the clearest reminder of where these two teams are at.

Adding the size of Dusty, Hopper and Taranto around the ball will make a big difference to Richmond's fleet-footed short people. I also expect that it allows Dusty to play a lot more forward and that combined with Lynch means that they have a more well-rounded forward line. They also have the same level of intercepting defenders, but with Bolta there is another string to their bow. I hope for Richmond's sake that we don't see a lot of Riewoldt and Tarrant. If those two are playing a lot of VFL footy at full fitness, then Richmond is going to be a side well entrenched in the top 4.

I "expect" Collingwood to be just in or just out of the finals. I don't write off a bottom 6 finish for them either. Depends on how they bounce back from what looks like a 1-3 start to the year.

Hopper is returning from knee injury.
Prestia is a human meatball and it's now a fitting nickname as he barely manages 13 games over the past three seasons. At 30 years of age, his body will break down even further.
Martin's basically cooked. 25 games played the last two years and if he manages 20 disposals and 1 goal per game, Richmond should thank their lucky stars.
Riewoldt is cooked.
Tarrant is horrid. At least Collingwood have Moore who is at the absolute peak of his powers.

McStay will be a massive inclusion. He won't be a star but he straightens them up and allows Cameron & Johnson to improve again (Mihocek will slot 50+).
Not to mention the upside in both Nick/Josh Daicos, Quaynor and Ginnivan. All four players are already important to their structure.

The biggest addition will be Mitchell. They lose Adams but Mitchell has just managed a lazy 30 disposals & 5 clearances the last two years. You can virtually expect similar stats this season.
I don't even think Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliott are among their best players anymore. They are a luxury. Richmond certainly don't have quality like that on the outset of the best 22.

Richmond be lucky to even make finals this year.
They are old and have so many blokes running on fumes.
Bolton and Ralphsmith are their only two shining lights in terms of youth. The rest of their list is in trouble.

 

[fishardansin]

Hopper is returning from knee injury.
Prestia is a human meatball and it's now a fitting nickname as he barely manages 13 games over the past three seasons. At 30 years of age, his body will break down even further.
Martin's basically cooked. 25 games played the last two years and if he manages 20 disposals and 1 goal per game, Richmond should thank their lucky stars.
Riewoldt is cooked.
Tarrant is horrid. At least Collingwood have Moore who is at the absolute peak of his powers.

McStay will be a massive inclusion. He won't be a star but he straightens them up and allows Cameron & Johnson to improve again (Mihocek will slot 50+).
Not to mention the upside in both Nick/Josh Daicos, Quaynor and Ginnivan. All four players are already important to their structure.

The biggest addition will be Mitchell. They lose Adams but Mitchell has just managed a lazy 30 disposals & 5 clearances the last two years. You can virtually expect similar stats this season.
I don't even think Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliott are among their best players anymore. They are a luxury. Richmond certainly don't have quality like that on the outset of the best 22.

Richmond be lucky to even make finals this year.
They are old and have so many blokes running on fumes.
Bolton and Ralphsmith are their only two shining lights in terms of youth. The rest of their list is in trouble.

Like Geelong?

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

I don't think it is close. Not writing off the possibility that Richmond has a disaster year with injuries and recruits don't settle and the walls close in, however, they had all that last year.

Collingwood had a lucky run with close wins through the middle of the year and Richmond had the complete opposite. Collingwood's percentage of 104 vs Richmond's of 121 is the clearest reminder of where these two teams are at.

Adding the size of Dusty, Hopper and Taranto around the ball will make a big difference to Richmond's fleet-footed short people. I also expect that it allows Dusty to play a lot more forward and that combined with Lynch means that they have a more well-rounded forward line. They also have the same level of intercepting defenders, but with Bolta there is another string to their bow. I hope for Richmond's sake that we don't see a lot of Riewoldt and Tarrant. If those two are playing a lot of VFL footy at full fitness, then Richmond is going to be a side well entrenched in the top 4.

I "expect" Collingwood to be just in or just out of the finals. I don't write off a bottom 6 finish for them either. Depends on how they bounce back from what looks like a 1-3 start to the year.

Now this man knows his football and has explained his reasoning brilliantly

Nice to see some adults on this forum

 

[My Tilly]

Like Geelong?

Big difference with Geelong and any other team getting long in the tooth is we added quality players to the list. We also said goodbye to guys who spent one year too many (Ablett, Taylor, Henderson).
Players like Smith, Cameron, Stengle, De Koning are upgrades.

Richmond finished the season playing Port Adelaide, Essendon and Hawthorn. All three clubs had effectively packed up shop and booked their off season holidays.
Give Carlton or St Kilda a couple of those teams and they play finals instead.

Richmond will get exposed in 2023.

 

[fishardansin]

Big difference with Geelong and any other team getting long in the tooth is we added quality players to the list. We also said goodbye to guys who spent one year too many (Ablett, Taylor, Henderson).
Players like Smith, Cameron, Stengle, De Koning are upgrades.

Richmond finished the season playing Port Adelaide, Essendon and Hawthorn. All three clubs had effectively packed up shop and booked their off season holidays.
Give Carlton or St Kilda a couple of those teams and they play finals instead.

Richmond will get exposed in 2023.

See, I think Collogwood will get exposed. I just went through the fixture and have them missing the eight. Richmond was ok last year and really just choked in a few games, whereas Collingwood got lucky winning at least 3 of those close games due to the opposition making unforced errors. That is a 6 game turnaround.

Richmond has quality talls at both ends of the ground, Dusty is back and fit and they've added quality big bodies around the ball. Essendon was a pretty ordinary side last year and I didn't see them dominate a team like they dominated Collingwood for half a game. A team like 2022 Essendon does not do that to a good side.

 

[HAPPY CHEFFY]

See, I think Collogwood will get exposed. I just went through the fixture and have them missing the eight. Richmond was ok last year and really just choked in a few games, whereas Collingwood got lucky winning at least 3 of those close games due to the opposition making unforced errors. That is a 6 game turnaround.

Richmond has quality talls at both ends of the ground, Dusty is back and fit and they've added quality big bodies around the ball. Essendon was a pretty ordinary side last year and I didn't see them dominate a team like they dominated Collingwood for half a game. A team like 2022 Essendon does not do that to a good side.

Thing about collingwood is always their overconfidence. Like you said they lucked it with a few in that 10 game streak making them look definitely better, especially the mammoth choke from Carlton. If we only look at the final results they were awesome which is their Achilles this year - overconfidence.

Season 2023 they go in with even more smoke blowing up their arse and this will be a hindrance. Young, dumb, full of cum.

I expect them to finish in the 8 at least but I reckon they’ll be seriously competing in 2025-26.

 

[Fadge]

Essendon was a pretty ordinary side last year and I didn't see them dominate a team like they dominated Collingwood for half a game. A team like 2022 Essendon does not do that to a good side.

So you didn't see Essendon's win against Sydney?

 

[Grrr]

Hopper is returning from knee injury.
Prestia is a human meatball and it's now a fitting nickname as he barely manages 13 games over the past three seasons. At 30 years of age, his body will break down even further.
Martin's basically cooked. 25 games played the last two years and if he manages 20 disposals and 1 goal per game, Richmond should thank their lucky stars.
Riewoldt is cooked.
Tarrant is horrid. At least Collingwood have Moore who is at the absolute peak of his powers.

McStay will be a massive inclusion. He won't be a star but he straightens them up and allows Cameron & Johnson to improve again (Mihocek will slot 50+).
Not to mention the upside in both Nick/Josh Daicos, Quaynor and Ginnivan. All four players are already important to their structure.

The biggest addition will be Mitchell. They lose Adams but Mitchell has just managed a lazy 30 disposals & 5 clearances the last two years. You can virtually expect similar stats this season.
I don't even think Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliott are among their best players anymore. They are a luxury. Richmond certainly don't have quality like that on the outset of the best 22.

Richmond be lucky to even make finals this year.
They are old and have so many blokes running on fumes.
Bolton and Ralphsmith are their only two shining lights in terms of youth. The rest of their list is in trouble.

That's some pretty average analysis.
Hopper had some meniscus problems which is pretty minor in regards to knee injuries and resumed full training with the 1-4 year players in early Nov.
Prestia played 19 games last season, he missed the first two and had one week off twice in the season.
Martin came back from a serious kidney injury and then his dad dies, might take the wind out of most peoples sails. In top nick according to watchers.
Riewoldt whilst obviously on the wane still kicked 40 goals. Lynch took his place last year as the main target, not many sides have 2 forwards kicking more than 103 goals. (Geelong and Carlton)
Tarrant had a very good year, and I was not a fan of getting him. Balta can do his job and young Gibcus looks a star in the making.

Our forward line will be Lynch, Riewoldt, Bolton, Martin, Cumberland, Tarranto and a few others running through there, some serious class and add Maurice Rioli Jnr's forward half pressure, best going round by a long way, (I won't bore you with stats.)

 

[Joao]

I don't get the idea that the Pies aren't ready now but will be in a couple of seasons. They didn't do what they did in 22 off youngsters, they did it off a seasoned core + Daicos and a couple other U24s. I know its fashionable now to assume that being ancient is now a good thing because Geelong won, but I think it is far more likely that you peak around where the Pies list is now (~26-27).

So for me, you have to decide which is the real Pies; the regular season ones or the finals ones. If they play like the finals side all year, they'll probably win the flag. If they are the regular season team, I think they'll be lucky to make the 8. I have NFI which one is real - probably some combination.

 

[fishardansin]

So you didn't see Essendon's win against Sydney?

There are periods of the game when you might not put the score on the board but seem to win every contest. That lasted from the start of the second quarter until five minutes into the last quarter. Essendon was overcoming a first quarter pasting where they won as many contests around the ground but were 6 goals down because not one kick inside 50 went to a teammate.

Collingwood's wins against Essendon, and Carlton and the close loss to Sydney in the prelim was a matter of the opposition having them beat and mentally putting the cue in the rack. Once Collingwood got a run on by continuing to roll the dice late in the game they struggled to regain momentum.

Everyone who makes the AFL is a very good player and the modern game is built around stifling that offensive ability. Collingwood taught everyone a lesson last year. That is if you give up momentum it is very hard for tired bodies to turn that around and 4-6 goals can be scored in less than 10 min football if the team isn't switched on defensively, which includes taking offensive opportunities to control field position.

I think the fact that Collingwood got to a prelim means that all teams will be trying to develop methods of attack that are just as cutting as Collingwood's were late in the game but try not to lose their shape as much as Collingwood did through the middle of the game.

I'm old enough to remember Essendon 93, Hawthorn 08 and Footscray 16. All three of those were sides that had some young future stars but with a game plan that the opposition didn't have a plan for. Footscray's game plan was mastered by a team with a more sustainable list, Richmond. Essendon's young stars faded when the older experienced players faded/retired. Hawthorn's rolling defence was mastered by Collingwood a few years later, but with a more frontal focus.

Lessons from Collingwood's game plan will be learnt by others, and those with a more sustainable list of players will surpass them. Collingwood did have an opportunity to jag a flag last year because it was a year where those how are "have the window open" did not perform well for a number of reasons. Just like 93 and 16, while 08 was a huge choke by the only team in the window. That opportunity was taken by a team of classy old stagers whose demographics suggest that the window is closing on them.

Collingwood is different to Essendon (who had a very young team that became a great team 6 years later), Hawthorn (who had a young team that became a great team 6 years later) and Footscray (who had a young team that became a very good team 5 years later). Apart from a superstar in N Daicos, and a few solid 21-23-year-olds Collingwood does not have that young that will learn from that experience at the pinnacle. They were actually playing with one of the oldest sides and key players for them last year were at the back end of their peak or well past their peak but having a renascence.

Where we thought they were 12 months ago, is where their list is generally speaking. There have been some additions with players who are late in their careers, and despite the class of Grundy, he won't be a big loss from last year's team because he didn't contribute. So they are mildly better, but without a game plan of rolling the dice late against tiring teams being unprepared for and the vast majority of their best 22 either stagnating or diminishing their output, they will win fewer games. They also have a harder draw and the number of games won and lost by less than 11 points evens out over time.

When I did the year predictor, obviously not scientific but my opinion is then influenced by the draw, I have Collingwood finishing 9th.

If I was to be Nostrodamus I think they will look back on 2022 as one of the most fun years outside of the two premiership years since 1948 to be a Collingwood fan. The emotional rollercoaster of all those close finishes and coming from the lower middle of the ladder to finish with a prelim when most Collingwood fans I know expected to finish in the bottom four is what following sport is all about. However, it will be seen as a wasted year that will turn into two wasted years of a rebuild.

Trading out Grundy was a good move, but they should have traded De Goey as well. If they had kept draft picks then 5 picks in the top twenty in the 22 and 23 drafts would have given them the rebuild boost they need. I don't think they'll sustainably challenge Melbourne, Carlton, Footscray, Sydney and Fremantle. I think they are now years behind North, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast and Hawthorn. They are going to live in a twilight zone with St Kilda.

 

[doppleganger]

I don't get the idea that the Pies aren't ready now but will be in a couple of seasons. They didn't do what they did in 22 off youngsters, they did it off a seasoned core + Daicos and a couple other U24s. I know its fashionable now to assume that being ancient is now a good thing because Geelong won, but I think it is far more likely that you peak around where the Pies list is now (~26-27).

Agree.

Pies time is now, a good mix of experience and circa 30 players who can expect to be fighting for spots.

So for me, you have to decide which is the real Pies; the regular season ones or the finals ones. If they play like the finals side all year, they'll probably win the flag. If they are the regular season team, I think they'll be lucky to make the 8. I have NFI which one is real - probably some combination.

You want to be playing your best footy in September.

All the H&A is about is making sure you qualify.