Collingwood and Richmond, who finishes higher in 2023?

[Rich01]

Trading out Grundy was a good move, but they should have traded De Goey as well. If they had kept draft picks then 5 picks in the top twenty in the 22 and 23 drafts would have given them the rebuild boost they need. I don't think they'll sustainably challenge Melbourne, Carlton, Footscray, Sydney and Fremantle. I think they are now years behind North, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast and Hawthorn. They are going to live in a twilight zone with St Kilda.

Yep, they would have got a really nice pick for letting him go. Isn’t the sort of player who fits into Flys team first mentality. Can have flashy moments that pies fans gush over of course.

 

[Ginnieboy]

See, I think Collogwood will get exposed. I just went through the fixture and have them missing the eight. Richmond was ok last year and really just choked in a few games, whereas Collingwood got lucky winning at least 3 of those close games due to the opposition making unforced errors. That is a 6 game turnaround.

Richmond has quality talls at both ends of the ground, Dusty is back and fit and they've added quality big bodies around the ball. Essendon was a pretty ordinary side last year and I didn't see them dominate a team like they dominated Collingwood for half a game. A team like 2022 Essendon does not do that to a good side.

How about our finals performances? Mean nothing? Lost to both grand finalists by a kick, easily accounted for Freo, also with our close/lucky wins I think a lot of it comes down to mindset, we almost lost to North and the Crows, should have lost to Essendon etc, it’s an issue we need to sort out fast, we should be beating those teams comfortably but for what ever reason we refuse to give our best against sides like that.

 

[Joao]

Agree.

Pies time is now, a good mix of experience and circa 30 players who can expect to be fighting for spots.

You want to be playing your best footy in September.

All the H&A is about is making sure you qualify.

It's only about finals performance if you get there though. If the performance mirrors last year, good chance they are not in the position to show that quality finals form.

My gut feeling is improved H&A performance but for similar or lesser finishing position.

 

[adammania9]

See, I think Collogwood will get exposed. I just went through the fixture and have them missing the eight. Richmond was ok last year and really just choked in a few games, whereas Collingwood got lucky winning at least 3 of those close games due to the opposition making unforced errors. That is a 6 game turnaround.

Richmond has quality talls at both ends of the ground, Dusty is back and fit and they've added quality big bodies around the ball. Essendon was a pretty ordinary side last year and I didn't see them dominate a team like they dominated Collingwood for half a game. A team like 2022 Essendon does not do that to a good side.

So Richmond were hard done by and should have won every close game yet Collingwood got lucky and should have lost them all. How can anybody write crap like this and not see through their own logic?

 

[Fadge]

There are periods of the game when you might not put the score on the board but seem to win every contest. That lasted from the start of the second quarter until five minutes into the last quarter. Essendon was overcoming a first quarter pasting where they won as many contests around the ground but were 6 goals down because not one kick inside 50 went to a teammate.

Collingwood's wins against Essendon, and Carlton and the close loss to Sydney in the prelim was a matter of the opposition having them beat and mentally putting the cue in the rack. Once Collingwood got a run on by continuing to roll the dice late in the game they struggled to regain momentum.

Everyone who makes the AFL is a very good player and the modern game is built around stifling that offensive ability. Collingwood taught everyone a lesson last year. That is if you give up momentum it is very hard for tired bodies to turn that around and 4-6 goals can be scored in less than 10 min football if the team isn't switched on defensively, which includes taking offensive opportunities to control field position.

I think the fact that Collingwood got to a prelim means that all teams will be trying to develop methods of attack that are just as cutting as Collingwood's were late in the game but try not to lose their shape as much as Collingwood did through the middle of the game.

I'm old enough to remember Essendon 93, Hawthorn 08 and Footscray 16. All three of those were sides that had some young future stars but with a game plan that the opposition didn't have a plan for. Footscray's game plan was mastered by a team with a more sustainable list, Richmond. Essendon's young stars faded when the older experienced players faded/retired. Hawthorn's rolling defence was mastered by Collingwood a few years later, but with a more frontal focus.

Lessons from Collingwood's game plan will be learnt by others, and those with a more sustainable list of players will surpass them. Collingwood did have an opportunity to jag a flag last year because it was a year where those how are "have the window open" did not perform well for a number of reasons. Just like 93 and 16, while 08 was a huge choke by the only team in the window. That opportunity was taken by a team of classy old stagers whose demographics suggest that the window is closing on them.

Collingwood is different to Essendon (who had a very young team that became a great team 6 years later), Hawthorn (who had a young team that became a great team 6 years later) and Footscray (who had a young team that became a very good team 5 years later). Apart from a superstar in N Daicos, and a few solid 21-23-year-olds Collingwood does not have that young that will learn from that experience at the pinnacle. They were actually playing with one of the oldest sides and key players for them last year were at the back end of their peak or well past their peak but having a renascence.

Where we thought they were 12 months ago, is where their list is generally speaking. There have been some additions with players who are late in their careers, and despite the class of Grundy, he won't be a big loss from last year's team because he didn't contribute. So they are mildly better, but without a game plan of rolling the dice late against tiring teams being unprepared for and the vast majority of their best 22 either stagnating or diminishing their output, they will win fewer games. They also have a harder draw and the number of games won and lost by less than 11 points evens out over time.

When I did the year predictor, obviously not scientific but my opinion is then influenced by the draw, I have Collingwood finishing 9th.

If I was to be Nostrodamus I think they will look back on 2022 as one of the most fun years outside of the two premiership years since 1948 to be a Collingwood fan. The emotional rollercoaster of all those close finishes and coming from the lower middle of the ladder to finish with a prelim when most Collingwood fans I know expected to finish in the bottom four is what following sport is all about. However, it will be seen as a wasted year that will turn into two wasted years of a rebuild.

Trading out Grundy was a good move, but they should have traded De Goey as well. If they had kept draft picks then 5 picks in the top twenty in the 22 and 23 drafts would have given them the rebuild boost they need. I don't think they'll sustainably challenge Melbourne, Carlton, Footscray, Sydney and Fremantle. I think they are now years behind North, Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast and Hawthorn. They are going to live in a twilight zone with St Kilda.

A lot of waffle, but you honestly think Carlton 'mentally put the cue in the rack' once they got 4 goals up when playing for their first finals spot in 9 years, and similarly Sydney when playing for a place in the Grand Final?!?



Edit: and you didn't even comment about the question you were responding to in the post.

 

[adammania9]

A lot of waffle, but you honestly think Carlton 'mentally put the cue in the rack' once they got 4 goals up when playing for their first finals spot in 9 years, and similarly Sydney when playing for a place in the Grand Final?!?



Edit: and you didn't even comment about the question you were responding to in the post.

Read a lot of genuine tripe on this website over the years but this fella’s essay has got to be one of the most mind boggling

Bloke genuinely believes that all of our close wins were a result of our opponents mentally defeating us and giving up. Yeah cool. Get this genius on fox footy

 

[doppleganger]

It's only about finals performance if you get there though. If the performance mirrors last year, good chance they are not in the position to show that quality finals form.

My gut feeling is improved H&A performance but for similar or lesser finishing position.

We started slowly last year - were 4-5 after R9 including losing to WC and being touched up by Dogs and Tigers.

Pies built nicely as the season progressed, had a strong run into the bye, again a bit slow coming back from the bye and then were ready to play our best footy when it mattered...September.

Demons had a 10-0 start to the year, and then went under .500 for the rest of the year

Blues had a 8-2 start, and then went well under .500 for the rest of the year.

No point bursting out of the blocks turn to s**t come August / September.

 

[juss]

I'm pretty bullish the Tigers will finish top 6, we have recruited well, get Dusty back too after what should be a proper preseason, but a lot hinges on Tom Lynch and how fit he is. It's clear we need to focus on finishing games too, because we were in a winning position in just about every game bar one or two in 2022, yet we dropped a lot of them late. That has to be rectified if we are to improve.

The Pies made top 4, so they just need to prove they can do it again, with what should theoretically be a tougher draw for them, and the second year back up, not all clubs can do it as sometimes they get worked out, and it's not a given that all young players improve in a linear fashion. They won a lot of close games in 2022, and regression to the mean suggests that's a bit of an outlier and won't necessarily happen again. I'd still expect them to make finals though, but top 4 is certainly no lock.

If I had to make a tip right now, I'd probably tip the Pies to finish higher in the Home and Away, but the Tigers to equal or maybe go one better week than them in finals.

 

[Joao]

We started slowly last year - were 4-5 after R9 including losing to WC and being touched up by Dogs and Tigers.

Pies built nicely as the season progressed, had a strong run into the bye, again a bit slow coming back from the bye and then were ready to play our best footy when it mattered...September.

Demons had a 10-0 start to the year, and then went under .500 for the rest of the year

Blues had a 8-2 start, and then went well under .500 for the rest of the year.

No point bursting out of the blocks turn to s**t come August / September.

Sure, but you're % was **** for a reason. Your regular season form wasn't that good. Only the W/L was.

This isn't a case of a 130% team taking a while to get going before belting everyone in the back end. This is a team that took a while to get going, then consistently limped across the line against non-finals teams right up until R23. Even if you played like a 130% team in finals, it is perfectly reasonable to question the H&A form if you think the team is a contender this year.

 

[Fadge]

Sure, but you're % was **** for a reason. Your regular season form wasn't that good. Only the W/L was.

This isn't a case of a 130% team taking a while to get going before belting everyone in the back end. This is a team that took a while to get going, then consistently limped across the line against non-finals teams right up until R23. Even if you played like a 130% team in finals, it is perfectly reasonable to question the H&A form if you think the team is a contender this year.

So It's gone from Collingwood's home and away form not being good enough to hold up in the 2022 finals, to Collingwood's home and away form not being good enough to hold up in 2023.

Gotcha.

 

[Robertio]

So It's gone from Collingwood's home and away form not being good enough to hold up in the 2022 finals, to Collingwood's home and away form not being good enough to hold up in 2023.

Gotcha.

That sounds right to me.

 

[Joao]

So It's gone from Collingwood's home and away form not being good enough to hold up in the 2022 finals, to Collingwood's home and away form not being good enough to hold up in 2023.

Gotcha.

I was very impressed in finals and not impressed much in the H&A (except maybe against us).

I am happy to admit I have NFI how the Pies will go. It's not as if a good finals series guarantees anything. It's also easy to project the finals on 2023. Good on you if you can see the future.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Collingwood aren't that good.
They have a foward line that's close to the worst in the league, their midfield is just ok, backline of triers, and they just got rid of their #1 ruck

Teams that lost to them last year, some twice, must be absolutely woeful.

 

[Joao]

Collingwood aren't that good.
They have a foward line that's close to the worst in the league, their midfield is just ok, backline of triers, and they just got rid of their #1 ruck

Teams that lost to them last year, some twice, must be absolutely woeful.

No question and since that describes the only team the Pies actually beat in finals means the Pies are ****. You can't even cite getting close to Geelong or Sydney either because by that metric, you're barely better than North, Bombers, Crows or Port.

Crazy, almost sounds like that might be a terrible argument.

 

[LoungeLizard]

No question and since that describes the only team the Pies actually beat in finals means the Pies are ****. You can't even cite getting close to Geelong or Sydney either because by that metric, you're barely better than North, Bombers, Crows or Port.

Crazy, almost sounds like that might be a terrible argument.

I think it's amazing people are lumping us in with clubs like Richmond, we should be lumped with bottom teams.

 

[Joao]

I think it's amazing people are lumping us in with clubs like Richmond, we should be lumped with bottom teams.

I am genuinely amazed that even Pies fans think its not at all noteworthy that they finished the H&A season with a % of 105. That would be like me getting riled up for people saying Freo's forward line is toilet. Just because it was doesn't guarantee that we'll fall in 2023 but pretending its not a fact is dumb.

If you had me on ignore and read this thread, you'd think I said Pies were a monty to miss the eight.

I also never mentioned Richmond and ftr, If I had to guess I think you'll finish above them

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood aren't that good.
They have a foward line that's close to the worst in the league, their midfield is just ok, backline of triers, and they just got rid of their #1 ruck

Teams that lost to them last year, some twice, must be absolutely woeful.

Good point.

I can't see who Collingwood beat this season.

Maybe Hawks because of how deep they cut their list, but we did only just get over the line against them last year.

Melbourne can only get better with Grundy, and Carlton now have Acres.

Yep, we're in big trouble.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Good point.

I can't see who Collingwood beat this season.

Maybe Hawks because of how deep they cut their list, but we did only just get over the line against them last year.

Melbourne can only get better with Grundy, and Carlton now have Acres.

Yep, we're in big trouble.

Yep, and no more luck, it ran out last year with all those close wins, no hope lifting that 105% any higher, I think we came from 17th didn't we?

Maybe the spoon this year is on the cards, WC did beat us last year and I have them favorites for the spoon.

The clubs we beat last year wouldn't be too confident you would think.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Will be an interesting year for the Pies

They had a very good year in 2022 and credit to them for winning all the close games and it was a dream result , Richmond had the total opposite and gave away games to North & GC which was just blatantly stupid and pathetic.

Richmond also lost another 3-4 games by close margins and should have had atleast another 3 wins minimum which would have had them outright 2nd

 

[Fadge]

Will be an interesting year for the Pies

They had a very good year in 2022 and credit to them for winning all the close games and it was a dream result , Richmond had the total opposite and gave away games to North & GC which was just blatantly stupid and pathetic.

Richmond also lost another 3-4 games by close margins and should have had atleast another 3 wins minimum which would have had them outright 2nd

Yes, wouldn't it be great if our respective teams went through the season and didn't lose any games that they 'should have won'...

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Yes, wouldn't it be great if our respective teams went through the season and didn't lose any games that they 'should have won'...

Then perhaps have a look and see the Richmond v Collingwood game in 2022 as an indication and totally disregard circumstances

 

[Fadge]

Then perhaps have a look and see the Richmond v Collingwood game in 2022 as an indication and totally disregard circumstances

Why? What would that prove?

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Why? What would that prove?

I always give people a chance no matter what other say or do.

But with you i should have listened



* No need to reply

 

[doppleganger]

Then perhaps have a look and see the Richmond v Collingwood game in 2022 as an indication and totally disregard circumstances

Who cares about a result in April / May?

You sound like an Adelaide fan from 2017....but we won the H&A game earlier in the year.

Often then good teams only really hit peak form poat mid season bye...by design as they know it is too hard to stay "up" for 26 weeks.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Who cares about a result in April / May?

You sound like an Adelaide fan from 2017....but we won the H&A game earlier in the year.

Often then good teams only really hit peak form poat mid season bye...by design as they know it is too hard to stay "up" for 26 weeks.

maybe re read the post i replied to
but your comment about post bye is interesting as for years we have been calling Collingwood june/july premiers