News Collingwood are in serious trouble..

[bzparkes]

Was reading the article for this on afl.com.au - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1271407/ready-for-take-off-your-clubs-breakout-star-for-2025

When flicking through I noticed that every club had some young gun listed to break out this year, a mix 1st of 4th year players.

Then I got to Collingwood and they listed -checks notes- Bobby Hill as the player to breakout this year, at the ripe old age of 25, with a Norm Smith already to his name.

Now I think Bobby's a fantastic player and is fun to watch, but the other 'notable' breakout players were Beau McCreery, Ed Allen and Reef McInnes.

Now obviously they have Naicos, who just turned 22, and broke out in his first year but listing a 25yo as their main breakout player would definitely indicate that Collingwood are in real trouble in the next year or 2.

Of course, we're all aware that they've certainly gone all in with a very old list for a final shot at a flag but if they fail, they will likely be in bottom table purgatory for most of the next decade, due to having next to no young talent coming through.

Having said that, for Pies fans, is this a fair assumption, or are there simply unknown kids coming through that nobody knows about that you expect to develop into goo AFL players?

Aside from Collingwood supporters, who do you think will break out for your club, not named on this list?

 

[Lingsface]

I think although already all Australian and premiership player coming off a 46 goal year, Stengle will be seen throughout the competition as a star.

Less known players that could have a breakout year are SDK with position change, Lawson Humphries could be AA squad at his best this year.

 

[bzparkes]

I think although already all Australian and premiership player coming off a 46 goal year, Stengle will be seen throughout the competition as a star.

Less known players that could have a breakout year are SDK with position change, Lawson Humphries could be AA squad at his best this year.

Humphries could certainly make a big step up, looks the good.

Neale with more responsibility also.

 

[Obeanie1]

Collingwood have stated their veiw is the draft is dead. So compromised they focus on trades and free agency.

Sure they are forced to use a 1st round pick every so many years however they are one club that has no qualms about trading future picks for players.

Collingwood being a destination club can do this as they are never short of quality players happy to be traded there.

How it works out for them time will tell.

 

[bzparkes]

Collingwood have stated their veiw is the draft is dead. So compromised they focus on trades and free agency.

Sure they are forced to use a 1st round pick every so many years however they are one club that has no qualms about trading future picks for players.

Collingwood being a destination club can do this as they are never short of quality players happy to be traded there.

How it works out for them time will tell.

My concern for them is that you simply can't get enough talent in via FA and trades to flesh out your best 22, because those traded in will invariably cost more in draft capital than you could get at the draft.

They're probably attempting to stay contending like Geelong have had but the difference for Geelong is that they continued to draft and nailed many late picks.

Collingwood are about to have a mass exodus of senior players and simply don't have the young talent pool to do what Geelong have done.

I get the idea of why they've done it but the base they're starting from will be their downfall, IMO.

 

[Obeanie1]

My concern for them is that you simply can't get enough talent in via FA and trades to flesh out your best 22, because those traded in will invariably cost more in draft capital than you could get at the draft.

They're probably attempting to stay contending like Geelong have had but the difference for Geelong is that they continued to draft and nailed many late picks.

Collingwood are about to have a mass exodus of senior players and simply don't have the young talent pool to do what Geelong have done.

I get the idea of why they've done it but the base they're starting from will be their downfall, IMO.

They keep on trading in the young under 23s and older types they don't cost you the draft capital you would pay for a top shelf type in their prime.

Cameron from the Swans cost a 2nd.

Bobby Hill a 2nd

They bring in a free agent every year costs no picks.

And who knows what they put in the water down Collingwood way but they seems to produce more father sons than most.

When it comes to player trades they are a big player every season. That won't change IMO.

 

[Fadge]

We heard this after 2021.

Geelong have been hearing it since 2010.

People need to start realising that AFL is now a game for seasoned players with mature bodies and minds.

It's no coincidence the older teams in the competition are continuing to win the flag each year.

 

[bzparkes]

We heard this after 2021.

Geelong have been hearing it since 2010.

People need to start realising that AFL is now a game for seasoned players with mature bodies and minds.

It's no coincidence the older teams in the competition are continuing to win the flag each year.

I get the idea of what Collingwood are trying to do and honestly, it's a bit refreshing to see a club try to rejuvenate their list in a way other than gutting it and starting again, which rarely works, yet clubs are still encouraged to do so.

Using Geelong as an example, if Collingwood are trading out players and using that capital to bring in new ones to replace them(Kelly/Cameron, for example) that can definitely work, because you're not really losing out.

If they do what they did with Shultz, that's a net negative, IMO, because you're giving out more than you're getting back and that ends up being unsustainable.

Perhaps they way Hawthorn have gone about it is the happy middle ground, although the jury's out on that until they win a flag using that strategy.

I kind of look at WCE going a similar route to Hawthorn, albeit it's harder to attract interstate players to WA than it is to Vic.

They gutted the list fairly quickly but then tried topping it up again. Realised it wasn't working(probably when Mitchell got to the club) and went back to youth, before targeting specific senior players to fill roles.

Everyone said they were doomed at the start of last season but then it all clicked and they flew up the ladder.

 

[Cleavy]

Then I got to Collingwood and they listed -checks notes- Bobby Hill as the player to breakout this year, at the ripe old age of 25, with a Norm Smith already to his name.

maybe they "put him back in, so he can breakout again"? could be ahead of the curve

 

[stallon]

Problem with just chasing free agents is you generally have to overpay them, like Perryman on 900k or whatever it was.
Problem with trading picks for players is you're usuallu either overpaying or taking risks on fringe players to fill specific roles.

Imo the pies strategy can only work because they've got some very good f/sons.
Same as Geelong lasted so long off a few f/sons with top ups in between.

Pies haven't had any success with late picks like the cats have had so imo the pies won't be successful long term with this strategy.

 

[CakeEater]

Never going to happen when they have the softest draw each year and minimalistic travel.

 

[Fadge]

Never going to happen when they have the softest draw each year and minimalistic travel.

When a club is a powerhouse, all draws look soft.

 

[CakeEater]

When a club is a powerhouse, all draws look soft.

its quite handy to be able to sleep in your own beds more than some other Vic Clubs as well though right?

 

[Apex36]

Was reading the article for this on afl.com.au - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1271407/ready-for-take-off-your-clubs-breakout-star-for-2025

When flicking through I noticed that every club had some young gun listed to break out this year, a mix 1st of 4th year players.

Then I got to Collingwood and they listed -checks notes- Bobby Hill as the player to breakout this year, at the ripe old age of 25, with a Norm Smith already to his name.

Now I think Bobby's a fantastic player and is fun to watch, but the other 'notable' breakout players were Beau McCreery, Ed Allen and Reef McInnes.

Now obviously they have Naicos, who just turned 22, and broke out in his first year but listing a 25yo as their main breakout player would definitely indicate that Collingwood are in real trouble in the next year or 2.

Of course, we're all aware that they've certainly gone all in with a very old list for a final shot at a flag but if they fail, they will likely be in bottom table purgatory for most of the next decade, due to having next to no young talent coming through.

Having said that, for Pies fans, is this a fair assumption, or are there simply unknown kids coming through that nobody knows about that you expect to develop into goo AFL players?

Aside from Collingwood supporters, who do you think will break out for your club, not named on this list?

Allan and Parker will both be very good players. Harrison was looking the goods too before he did his ACL.
Jiath looks like he has the same sort of game as his brother but will need a little time to build his body.
We’ll also have McGuane as a father/son this year who’s looking like a first round talent.

We have quite a few young kids who are looking pretty good, the rhetoric of us having no youth is just click bait from lazy journos.

 

[doppleganger]

its quite handy to be able to sleep in your own beds more than some other Vic Clubs as well though right?

All those poor Olympic athletes that break world records don't seem to have any performance issues when not sleeping in their own bed.

 

[TiggyTig]

We heard this after 2021.

Geelong have been hearing it since 2010.

People need to start realising that AFL is now a game for seasoned players with mature bodies and minds.

It's no coincidence the older teams in the competition are continuing to win the flag each year.

Reality is Pies were gifted a flag by dubious umpiring in many close games then failed to make finals the year after. This appears to be a losing strategy as they now have the oldest list in history. Time will tell but I don't see them making finals this year and the whole 'scheme' has been a failure without any young talent coming in. Older teams win every year as they have the most experience playing a system together - rarer for young teams to win.

 

[Apex36]

They keep on trading in the young under 23s and older types they don't cost you the draft capital you would pay for a top shelf type in their prime.

Cameron from the Swans cost a 2nd.

Bobby Hill a 2nd

They bring in a free agent every year costs no picks.

And who knows what they put in the water down Collingwood way but they seems to produce more father sons than most.

When it comes to player trades they are a big player every season. That won't change IMO.

Actually Cameron was like a 6 pick downgrade in the 3rd round. Basically free.

 

[HBFlanker]

Allan and Parker will both be very good players. Harrison was looking the goods too before he did his ACL.
Jiath looks like he has the same sort of game as his brother but will need a little time to build his body.
We’ll also have McGuane as a father/son this year who’s looking like a first round talent.

We have quite a few young kids who are looking pretty good, the rhetoric of us having no youth is just click bait from lazy journos.

None of those players have quality AFL exposed form. Hasn't Jiath only played one game?

It's very shallow at the pies, evidenced by their horror VFL season last year.

I like the aggressive approach to winning it this year, but I think it will fall apart due to injuries.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Some of our young players might be good. It's just that they don't get games because our old timers are still playing in the firsts.

 

[Apex36]

None of those players have quality AFL exposed form. Hasn't Jiath only played one game?

It's very shallow at the pies, evidenced by their horror VFL season last year.

I like the aggressive approach to winning it this year, but I think it will fall apart due to injuries.

Our VFL year was more due to us having a god awful VFL squad than anything else.
Allan was excellent in the final round last year and Parker managed a handful of games which looked promising coming off no preseason as a cat B cricket convert. Both looked good tonight too.
Harrison literally got a rising star nomination last year before injury.

But yeah, no exposed form

 

[CakeEater]

All those poor Olympic athletes that break world records don't seem to have any performance issues when not sleeping in their own bed.

Fair enough, looking forward to seeing Collingwood travel 11 times next year & not sleep in their own bed and win the flag.

 

[Rotayjay]

Collingwood have stated their veiw is the draft is dead. So compromised they focus on trades and free agency.

I don't disagree, and it's a disgrace.

 

[McOrist]

Pies haven't had any success with late picks like the cats have had so imo the pies won't be successful long term with this strategy.

From the '23 flag side:

McCreery pick 44 in ND
Murphy pick 39 in ND
Maynard pick 30 in ND
Miochek pick 22 in Rookie Draft
Ginnivan pick 13 in Rookie Draft

That's a quarter of the team.
Have another guess.

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood players who are going to be around for at least the next five years, and ages at the start of the 2025 season:
D. Moore (29)
B. Maynard (28)
J. Daicos (26)
N. Daicos (22)
I. Quaynor (25)
D. Houston (27)
H. Perryman (26)
B. Hill (25)
L. Schultz (27)
P. Lipinski (26)
B. McCreery (23)

Players who will be phased out over the next five years (2 to 4 at a time, freeing up cap space), in order of their ages at the start of the 2025 season:
S. Pendlebury (37)
S. Sidebottom (34)
J. Howe (34)
M. Cox (33)
B. Mihocek (32)
J. Elliott (32)
T. Mitchell (31)
J. Crisp (31)
W. Hoskin-Elliott (31)
T. Membrey (30)
D. Cameron (29)
D. McStay (29)
J. De Goey (28)

That is in addition to players like McInnes, Sullivan, Harrison, Allen, Long, Macrae, Frampton (Premiership player), Markov (Premiership player), Ryan, Parker, Dean who have had exposure at the level and can possibly turn into or continue to be solid role players (i.e. development of McInnes in the backline), and unproven young recruits who we are yet to really see (DeMattia, Jiath, Steene, Smit, Hayes, West).

Continue topping up with 1 or 2 mature age players with known ability who fill a need, either through trade or free agency, continue getting 2 or 3 from the draft each year expecting at least one player will make it.

The Pies are absolutely fine for the foreseeable future, but appreciate everyone's concern.

 

[Fadge]

Reality is Pies were gifted a flag by dubious umpiring in many close games then failed to make finals the year after. This appears to be a losing strategy as they now have the oldest list in history. Time will tell but I don't see them making finals this year and the whole 'scheme' has been a failure without any young talent coming in. Older teams win every year as they have the most experience playing a system together - rarer for young teams to win.

Collingwood missed finals by percentage in 2024 (beating the eventual premiers in the lead up to finals and having a narrow loss to the other Grand Finalist), after losing a narrow Preliminary Final in 2022, and winning the flag in 2023.

Their list has been improved with Houston and Perryman this year.

'Losing Strategy' indeed....