COLLINGWOOD. NEXT 5 YEARS?

[cakewalk06]

The way to prevent the ageing cliff is by being ageist and dumping players before they get old. If only we had managed out Pendles, Steele, Howe and a few others about three years ago, we would be flying in 2026.


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Call it the James Dean effect. We could be forever young

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

What's happened & is happening now is a re-inventing of what we know & how we use to view things & the direction we can now see things going.

I can't be clearer than that.

What we know is the known knowns, it's the unknown knowns that may surprise us. But the real issue is the known unknowns that we believe we know but we dont know.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Sidebottom, Elliot, Pendlebury and Howe were all AA quality. Probably not now, but not so long ago.

While I’m not trying to diminish the quality he brings, Elliott hasn’t even made an AA 40 man squad so I’m interested in how you justify that claim.

The others all have AA honors, but there’s been a bit of water under the bridge since they achieved them, Pendles the most recent of the 3 in 2019. We aren’t looking to replace the players they were 5+ seasons ago, and it doesn’t have to be their direct replacements who replace that quality in the team. That could be a player obtained under FA in 2025 or beyond. It could also be argued we’ve already replaced a couple of those AA quality pieces with the drafting of the Daicos brothers, and the trading of Houston.

 

[Mollythedolly]

The picks we don’t give away for middle of the road role players which is why I said I disagree with fly.

We’ve added 2 players thus far, Houston and Perryman. Seems likely we’ll also add Membrey. Neither Perryman or Membrey cost us anything in terms of draft capital. Are you suggesting Houston is a middle of the road role player?

 

[Mollythedolly]

Call it the James Dean effect. We could be forever young

Getting players to mainline telephone posts in very expensive sports cars might be prohibitively expensive.

 

[76woodenspooners]

What would you have done that would have given us a better chance of staying up?

Of course a Richmond style drop is a possibility - for every team in contention (although the academy teams are somewhat future proofed in terms of talent), but if you don't think that a Richmond like drop is a possibility and actually more likely with a draft strategy, then you're the delusional one. A draft strategy would have given us way less chance of success over the next two years and made it much more likely that we'd plummet with our impending retirements.

The AFL engineer the competition so that those teams that are successful (like us recently) are a strong likelihood of dropping off in future years. And if that’s not happening, then the AFL will consider how to make it happen as per the recent competitive review.

Of course some clubs are able to buck the trend a little. Such as Geelong generally staying up. And Carlton generally staying down. And they’re able to do that through the quality of their off-field club leadership. Or lack of as the case may be.

Looking at our off-field leadership …

• President (Browne) - stepping down (After December we’ll have had 4 Presidents in the last 4 years)
• Board - significant turnover 3 years ago, standard attrition now. After December, we’ll only have 2 members of 7 who have been on it for longer than 3 years (Sizer and Licuria) so it won’t be a particularly experienced board.
• CEO (Kelly) - been with us 2 years. Some folks are concerned about him (me included)
• Footy Boss - we don’t have one. Our last one effectively left 8 months ago, and was a bloody good one but he’s now gone off to fill a different role at our greatest competitor.
• Senior Coach (Fly) - we have amongst the best in the league IMO, and doubt many here would currently argue against that. Hasn’t made a commitment to stay long term, and if anything has implied the contrary. If we do drop off I could easily imagine that us nuffies will have the knives out for him.
• Fitness boss (Wade) - best we’ve had since 2011, and doubt many here would argue against that.
• List Manager (Leppa) - very new to the role. Our last one was our footy boss who left. The one before that was contentious (Surname: Guy, Firstname: Fall)
• Talent Identification Boss (Hine) - A lot of folks here seem to complain about his inability to draft gun KPF’s with second round picks. Would imagine he’s approaching the end of his tenure?

I love sitting in the crowd cheering my little lungs out for Collingwood …

… but let’s be realistic, that leadership doesn’t currently look like the most stable to steer us through the challenging times ahead, does it?

That can all change of course. It’ll be interesting times.

 

[76woodenspooners]

For context for how much things can change in 5 years …

… having a look at where we were 5 years ago:

2019 - We lost a low scoring Prelim, CFC 52 v GWS 56. GWS went on to get thumped by Richmond in the GF.

Our Prelim final team included:
Noble - left 5 years later
Roughead - retired
Howe - still on our list and still performing OK
Crisp - the Eveready bunny
Moore - Still going, didn’t have his best season in 2024
Maynard - Still solid
Phillips - member of the great salary cap purge at the end of 2020
Pendlebury - now 400+ games
Sidebottom - still going
Thomas - retired
Mihocek - still going
WHE - still going
Elliott - Still going
Reid - retired
Stephenson - member of the great salary cap purge at the end of 2020
Grundy - Traded. (Nobody at the end of 2019 would have seen that coming)
Treloar - member of the great salary cap purge at the end of 2020
Adams - would last another 4 years and then get traded.
Aish - traded
Mayne - retired
C.Brown - delisted
R.Wills - delisted

Other players on our 2019 list
JDG - still going around. Great X-Factor but not very durable.
Wells - retired
Goldsack - retired
Langdon - retired
Murray - delisted
Beams - retired
Scharenberg - delisted
Dunn - retired
Varcoe - retired
Greenwood - retired
j.Daicos - still on list
Kelly - delisted
Murphy - medically retired
Broomhead - delisted
Appleby - delisted
T.Brown - delisted
Quaynor - still on list
Sier - delisted
Crocker - delisted
Bosenavulagi - traded
Tohill - retired
Madgen - delisted
Max Lynch - traded (later medically retired)
Cox - still on list
Keane - retired then came back to the comp (crows)
Wilson - delisted

I count 13 players who are still on our list from 5 years ago.

Which 13 players on our list today could I most imagine being on our list in 5 years?
N.Daicos (contracted)
J.Daicos (contracted)
Perryman (contracted)
Houston (contracted)
Quaynor
McCreery
Hill
Lipinski
Maynard (will be 33, is durable)
Allan
Harrison
Parker
Moore (will be 33, less durable)

Conclusion: Our list profile in 2019 doesn’t look to be a whole lot different to what it does today.

 

[sr36]

The AFL engineer the competition so that those teams that are successful (like us recently) are a strong likelihood of dropping off in future years. And if that’s not happening, then the AFL will consider how to make it happen as per the recent competitive review.

Of course some clubs are able to buck the trend a little. Such as Geelong generally staying up. And Carlton generally staying down. And they’re able to do that through the quality of their off-field club leadership. Or lack of as the case may be.

Looking at our off-field leadership …

• President (Browne) - stepping down (After December we’ll have had 4 Presidents in the last 4 years)
• Board - significant turnover 3 years ago, standard attrition now. After December, we’ll only have 2 members of 7 who have been on it for longer than 3 years (Sizer and Licuria) so it won’t be a particularly experienced board.
• CEO (Kelly) - been with us 2 years. Some folks are concerned about him (me included)
• Footy Boss - we don’t have one. Our last one effectively left 8 months ago, and was a bloody good one but he’s now gone off to fill a different role at our greatest competitor.
• Senior Coach (Fly) - we have amongst the best in the league IMO, and doubt many here would currently argue against that. Hasn’t made a commitment to stay long term, and if anything has implied the contrary. If we do drop off I could easily imagine that us nuffies will have the knives out for him.
• Fitness boss (Wade) - best we’ve had since 2011, and doubt many here would argue against that.
• List Manager (Leppa) - very new to the role. Our last one was our footy boss who left. The one before that was contentious (Surname: Guy, Firstname: Fall)
• Talent Identification Boss (Hine) - A lot of folks here seem to complain about his inability to draft gun KPF’s with second round picks. Would imagine he’s approaching the end of his tenure?

I love sitting in the crowd cheering my little lungs out for Collingwood …

… but let’s be realistic, that leadership doesn’t currently look like the most stable to steer us through the challenging times ahead, does it?

That can all change of course. It’ll be interesting times.

You give a lot more credit to those above the coaches than I do. Players and coaches win games of footy. And the footy boss and above are ultimately safeguards to stop the heads below them stuffing up.

To me the primary reason why the Cats stayed up after their flags is that they already had what teams get at the draft before they start their ascent - a couple of young stars in Selwood and Hawkins.

Secondary reason was their location gives them a recruiting advantage.

Third reason was they're very well coached.

4th reason - a strategy to stay up.

I think we've got the same conditions.

You don't plan to hit the bottom if you've got Nick Daicos. You might plan to hit the bottom if you don't.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

While I’m not trying to diminish the quality he brings, Elliott hasn’t even made an AA 40 man squad so I’m interested in how you justify that claim.

The others all have AA honors, but there’s been a bit of water under the bridge since they achieved them, Pendles the most recent of the 3 in 2019. We aren’t looking to replace the players they were 5+ seasons ago, and it doesn’t have to be their direct replacements who replace that quality in the team. That could be a player obtained under FA in 2025 or beyond. It could also be argued we’ve already replaced a couple of those AA quality pieces with the drafting of the Daicos brothers, and the trading of Houston.

Elliott is AA quality. He is just not AA consistency because he misses to many games. DeGoey is the same.
Agree with the rest of what you are saying that none of the rest have been AA for years. Good post.

 

[Piesinmyeyes]

Would have thought, with the likelihood of mass retirements at the end of next year, we would be in a position to chase a couple of big fish for 2026 and beyond.
Team lists are very fluid these days.
It’s not always success through high draft picks.
Ie Cats recruitment of no names initially Stewart, Mannagh etc at low cost.
Also good development ie Richards, sell at greater cost.
All these things are factors.
Happy with our approach for now.

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

What's happened & is happening now is a re-inventing of what we know & how we use to view things & the direction we can now see things going.

I can't be clearer than that.

Having read that I now feel positive about what can be in 2025 and unburdened by what has been

 

[sr36]

I’m going to disagree with Fly and say we need to draft kids now!!! Top end picks before the Tassie compromised draft class. So next year Tom McGuane good start. Then we need a spine for the future. Knowing keys take awhile to develop. So get them asap so Moore, McStay and Checkers can teach them, that’s how the draft should work. We’ve done that with our rucks getting Smitt but the spine is spineless

Expansion drafts work in favour of teams who are at the top topping up, as they make it harder for teams to rise through the draft.

They're harmful for teams who are at the bottom when the compromised draft happens. We're not planning to be at the bottom when that occurs, so it's likely to be helpful.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Elliott is AA quality. He is just not AA consistency because he misses to many games. DeGoey is the same.
Agree with the rest of what you are saying that none of the rest have been AA for years. Good post.

Elliott has had 7-8 seasons where he’s played 17 games or more, including 24 games in our last premiership year. I think it’s a stretch to suggest injury has played a roll in his AA squad absence. That’s he’s inconsistent more relevant but AA nominees aren’t generally that. He’s only ever averaged 2.0 goals a game once, AA small forwards do that and better consistently. I’m not trying to denigrate him, love what he brings and he’s one of my favorites, just think he’s below AA quality.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Elliott has had 7-8 seasons where he’s played 17 games or more, including 24 games in our last premiership year. I think it’s a stretch to suggest injury has played a roll in his AA squad absence. That’s he’s inconsistent more relevant but AA nominees aren’t generally that. He’s only ever averaged 2.0 goals a game once, AA small forwards do that and better consistently. I’m not trying to denigrate him, love what he brings and he’s one of my favorites, just think he’s below AA quality.

You are including finals. You usually need a good 20+ games (H&A only) to get an AA nod. He has done that 2 times in his career. One of those was exactly 20 games ( fairly early in his career). Once in 2023 with 21 games. I would say that 2023 was the only major chance were he played enough to get the nod (he still missed 3 games).

Edit: A lot of those years you talked about included finals as well. 2 goal a game forwards kick 45+ goals a year. That's very uncommon for blokes under 6 feet.

 

[76woodenspooners]

You give a lot more credit to those above the coaches than I do. Players and coaches win games of footy. And the footy boss and above are ultimately safeguards to stop the heads below them stuffing up.

Consider:

• How was a minnow club like Hawthorn who had only won one Premiership in nearly 50 years, able to win not only the 1971 Premiership, but a further 11 Premierships after that over 3 generations?
• Who decided to launch the review at Geelong in 2006? Did it have a material impact on its future fortunes?
• How were Carlton able to go from a successful club to then winning 6 wooden spoons under 4 different senior coaches over a 16 year period? It’s hilarious, but have you ever stopped to wonder what might be behind this good fortune?
• How have Essendon not managed to win a final in over 2 decades with any of the 6 senior coaches they’ve had in that time?
• How come Suns have never made finals, and yet GWS have made a Grand Final, a bunch of Prelims and various other finals - despite Suns having a year head start and access to far more early draft picks?
• How come Swans have been able to continually make finals over a long period of time? If you think COLA might have anything to do with it, who lobbied for the Swans to get COLA?
• Why, despite the AFL’s best efforts at equalisation, are there some clubs that are successful over generations, and other clubs that are shithouse over generations?
• Who ran the main 2017 review into Collingwood, and did it have a material impact on our results?
• Who decided to move Buckley on from Collingwood? Who appointed the person who made that decision? Who decided the process to replace him? Who made the decision to appoint Fly? Has any of that made a material difference to Collingwood’s fortunes?

Officials and Administrators don’t kick the footy, or coach, or stand up on the dais …

… they operate behind the scenes and they make the big decisions of who and when to hire and fire the main people in the footy dept, they resource them, they hold them to account, they setup systems and processes, they set standards and steer the culture of the organisation, they steer the narrative, they exercise governance. All this often has impact well beyond their own tenure.

IMO Footy is a competition fought between club officials and administrators. The 2.5 hours we see on the weekend is the output of their strategy, wisdom and guile.

 

[Mollythedolly]

You are including finals. You usually need a good 20+ games (H&A only) to get an AA nod. He has done that 2 times in his career. One of those was exactly 20 games ( fairly early in his career). Once in 2023 with 21 games. I would say that 2023 was the only major chance were he played enough to get the nod (he still missed 3 games).

Edit: A lot of those years you talked about included finals as well. 2 goal a game forwards kick 45+ goals a year. That's very uncommon for blokes under 6 feet.

You’re comparing him to players like Toby Greene who in his last AA season in 2021 played 18 games and kicked 45 goals (17 H&A, 42 goals). Tyson Stengle who kicked 53 goals in 25 matches in 2022 (22 H&A, 46 goals). Charlie Cameron 26 games 59 goals in 2023 (23 H&A, 53 goals)

So 2+ goals a game is more common for AA small forwards or blokes under 6 feet than you seem to think.

 

[sr36]

Consider:

• How was a minnow club like Hawthorn who had only won one Premiership in nearly 50 years, able to win not only the 1971 Premiership, but a further 11 Premierships after that over 3 generations?
• Who decided to launch the review at Geelong in 2006? Did it have a material impact on its future fortunes?
• How were Carlton able to go from a successful club to then winning 6 wooden spoons under 4 different senior coaches over a 16 year period? It’s hilarious, but have you ever stopped to wonder what might be behind this good fortune?
• How have Essendon not managed to win a final in over 2 decades with any of the 6 senior coaches they’ve had in that time?
• How come Suns have never made finals, and yet GWS have made a Grand Final, a bunch of Prelims and various other finals - despite Suns having a year head start and access to far more early draft picks?
• How come Swans have been able to continually make finals over a long period of time? If you think COLA might have anything to do with it, who lobbied for the Swans to get COLA?
• Why, despite the AFL’s best efforts at equalisation, are there some clubs that are successful over generations, and other clubs that are shithouse over generations?
• Who ran the main 2017 review into Collingwood, and did it have a material impact on our results?
• Who decided to move Buckley on from Collingwood? Who appointed the person who made that decision? Who decided the process to replace him? Who made the decision to appoint Fly? Has any of that made a material difference to Collingwood’s fortunes?

Officials and Administrators don’t kick the footy, or coach, or stand up on the dais …

… they operate behind the scenes and they make the big decisions of who and when to hire and fire the main people in the footy dept, they resource them, they hold them to account, they setup systems and processes, they set standards and steer the culture of the organisation, they steer the narrative, they exercise governance. All this often has impact well beyond their own tenure.

IMO Footy is a competition fought between club officials and administrators. The 2.5 hours we see on the weekend is the output of their strategy, wisdom and guile.

Yeah as I said, you give way more credit to those above the coaches than me.

That post sums up a lot of what is wrong with the world.

If you break that down, the 2023 had little to do with the coaches and players. It was down to the brilliance of Korda and co - for selecting the selection panel that then selected McRae. Great job old chap. You just knew that person you placed on the panel would make all the difference. There was no luck involved at all.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

You’re comparing him to players like Toby Greene who in his last AA season in 2021 played 18 games and kicked 45 goals (17 H&A, 42 goals). Tyson Stengle who kicked 53 goals in 25 matches in 2022 (22 H&A, 46 goals). Charlie Cameron 26 games 59 goals in 2023 (23 H&A, 53 goals)

So 2+ goals a game is more common for AA small forwards or blokes under 6 feet than you seem to think.

At least you are conceding on that he didn't play enough games most years to be a contender for AA unless you have a freak like season like Toby did in 2021. Toby has also only kicked over 45 goals once in his career in the H&A. Even elite small forwards only get over 2 goals a year rarely.
Elliott played the following amount of games in the H&A each year:
13, 19, 17, 20, 17, 14, 16, 13, 16, 21, 15.

He has missed at least 3 games a season every year. Which makes it hard for 98% of players to be considered.

Its just not enough games apart from 2 seasons for AA unless you get very lucky imo with a freaky season and are well loved by the AA selectors like Toby is. I get it you disagree.

 

[loki04]

A few years to go yet before Nick is Captain.

Yeah I reckon they will give him 2 more years to just play the game, probably at 2027.

 

[loki04]

While I’m not trying to diminish the quality he brings, Elliott hasn’t even made an AA 40 man squad so I’m interested in how you justify that claim.

The others all have AA honors, but there’s been a bit of water under the bridge since they achieved them, Pendles the most recent of the 3 in 2019. We aren’t looking to replace the players they were 5+ seasons ago, and it doesn’t have to be their direct replacements who replace that quality in the team. That could be a player obtained under FA in 2025 or beyond. It could also be argued we’ve already replaced a couple of those AA quality pieces with the drafting of the Daicos brothers, and the trading of Houston.

I'd argue injury is the main reason for that and some outstanding seasons from the likes of C.Cameron plus others pipping him.

He is definitely an AA quality small forward.

 

[sr36]

At least you are conceding on that he didn't play enough games most years to be a contender for AA unless you have a freak like season like Toby did in 2021. Toby has also only kicked over 45 goals once in his career in the H&A.
Elliott played the following amount of games in the H&A each year:
13, 19, 17, 20, 17, 14, 16, 13, 16 21, 15.

He has missed at least 3 games a season every year. Which makes it hard for 98% of players to be considered.

Its just not enough games apart from 2 seasons for AA unless you get very lucky imo with a freaky season and are well loved by the AA selectors like Toby is. I get it you disagree.

Isn't that a bit of the point though, the underlying question was whether we'll be able to replace the oldies. We've had to replace Jamie for a third of the games most years. He undoubtedly makes us better when he's fit, but he's replaceable as we've shown in a lot of games and seasons.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

I'd argue injury is the main reason for that and some outstanding seasons from the likes of C.Cameron plus others pipping him.

He is definitely an AA quality small forward.

That's my argument as well. A lot of people could say he is not quite as good as Cameron or Greene and I generally agree, but it has to be at least partly because he has struggled mostly with his back for at least 6-8 years. Imagine a high flying injury free Elliott. In the same class as any small forward.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Isn't that a bit of the point though, the underlying question was whether we'll be able to replace the oldies. We've had to replace Jamie for a third of the games most years. He undoubtedly makes us better when he's fit, but he's replaceable as we've shown in a lot of games and seasons.

Totally agree. We have replaced Elliott with Schultz and Hill. If we get a fit Elliott it's the cherry on top.

 

[jathanas]

I'd argue injury is the main reason for that and some outstanding seasons from the likes of C.Cameron plus others pipping him.

He is definitely an AA quality small forward.

His impact when ON is AA level. That's undeniable.

Injury has limited how often he shows the AFL world his A-game. He's a match-winning small forward. Not many of his calibre around.

If only that dodgy back of his wasn't such a limiter.

 

[Mollythedolly]

At least you are conceding on that he didn't play enough games most years to be a contender for AA unless you have a freak like season like Toby did in 2021. Toby has also only kicked over 45 goals once in his career in the H&A. Even elite small forwards only get over 2 goals a year rarely.
Elliott played the following amount of games in the H&A each year:
13, 19, 17, 20, 17, 14, 16, 13, 16, 21, 15.

He has missed at least 3 games a season every year. Which makes it hard for 98% of players to be considered.

Its just not enough games apart from 2 seasons for AA unless you get very lucky imo with a freaky season and are well loved by the AA selectors like Toby is. I get it you disagree.

Hmmmm, conceding isn’t in my blood.

He’s not just missing the AA team, he’s missing the squad so he hasn’t even been close.

You’re also ignoring that those small forwards who don’t rotate through the midfield are still averaging better than 2 goals a game in AA seasons. Elliott has only ever hit 2.0 goals a game once.

Seems we’ll never agree so I’ll leave it there.