List Mgmt. Collingwood Re-Building Via The Draft

[Billys Back]

i noticed Tohill is now listed at 200cm.
Would love to see him play a few games this year. may be a real surprise.

 

[jackcass]

Why hasnt it worked for Carlton with all their very low picks?

While I’ve recently discovered I’ve got NFI about their salary cap, I think they’ve got 2 major issues over and above the fact they’re Carlton and deserve this. Firstly, been a some really poor selections. Secondly, they’ve built a team around a few quality kids, some very high salary imports, and a fleet of cheap money ball NQR players like Ploughman, Marchbank, Setterfield, Newnes, McDonald, Gibbons and Fogarty.

Doesn’t help when they dont get the value out of guys like Martin and have Curnow out injured for so long.

 

[Maggie5]

Well then I guess you be Glad the game is Played at the SCG as they will get Destroyed on Monday

Sadly, I don't think we can win no matter where it is played, as they are playing well at the moment especially us without Adams and Howe.

 

[Go Woods]

Looking more settled coming out of defence in the VFL his last couple of games. I think the KPF experiment is over.

Hopefully our new coach won’t be developing players into playing in positions their not naturally good at.

 

[LarryKinn]

I don’t see Wilson as a KPD, I don’t think that’s his game. More a 3rd tall utility type.

fair enough, same way Howe is the 3rd defender.
but when Darcy or Roughy are on the bench, he slots in as KPD

 

[jackcass]

Hopefully our new coach won’t be developing players into playing in positions their not naturally good at.

I think at times some of that is forced. For example, can’t have all of Tohill, Keane, Wilson, and Kelly developing in the VFL defence, someone has to move. The problem would have forced 1 of them to move this week if the VFL was on and Wilson looking likely to be omitted from the seniors.

 

[Billys Back]

I think at times some of that is forced. For example, can’t have all of Tohill, Keane, Wilson, and Kelly developing in the VFL defence, someone has to move. The problem would have forced 1 of them to move this week if the VFL was on and Wilson looking likely to be omitted from the seniors.

i think Tohill, Keane and Kelly have another year or 2 given their age. Wilson will want to show he is improving and can cement a position by the end of the year. He is 24 and looks the most vulnerable given his lack of speed.
I'm really hoping we see Tohill get a few games.

 

[OniAu]

Respectfully disagree.
These two in particular join the long list of "1st round picks that failed".
Shazza was a risk, given his injury prior to drafting and Freemen we'll never know as he was gone after 1 practice game.

Every team can point to "unlucky first round selections".
Every team can point to "unlucky injury ending careers" (e.g langdon, swanny).

Bar the obvious trading disasters (beams) and our first round pick giveaway raffle we seemed to run for a few years, I feel that that some of the more dubious left field selections are what has gone a long way to holding us back.

Our want to back "upside" over exposed form has been overlooked in my opinion.

Talking Sier mid 30's and McClarty mid 30's are two examples.

If either of these, plus maybe 1 or 2 others of this age profile are in the best 22, our future looks a like brighter than it does now.
I'm sure there are a heap of other examples from that draft range.
Also, its not about the pure diamonds that we missed in this period...they are just luck for the most part.
Its the 100+ gamer types that fill the void of the team (spots 14-22 on the team) that make a difference.

What i find interesting is our success 2005-20010 with late/ rookie selections versus 2015-present.
I cant help but think the strategy and traits we looked for were different back then to what they are now (namely, late picks are for need etc).

Anyway, lets hope we can find a balance between age profile and list needs rather than just going all out on young talent and lamenting when they don't fulfill the expectations placed on them by their junior career.....

Great post!

 

[pablo disco bar]

Might not be a future fullback but with his height, speed, agility he can become a decent general defender

Was seriously underdone... off little preseason and VFL... when he played seniors this year

Yeah cause it's a miracle when he strings more than 2 games together


Glass boy

 

[Mateyman]

Respectfully disagree.
These two in particular join the long list of "1st round picks that failed".
Shazza was a risk, given his injury prior to drafting and Freemen we'll never know as he was gone after 1 practice game.

Every team can point to "unlucky first round selections".
Every team can point to "unlucky injury ending careers" (e.g langdon, swanny).

Bar the obvious trading disasters (beams) and our first round pick giveaway raffle we seemed to run for a few years, I feel that that some of the more dubious left field selections are what has gone a long way to holding us back.

Our want to back "upside" over exposed form has been overlooked in my opinion.

Talking Sier mid 30's and McClarty mid 30's are two examples.

If either of these, plus maybe 1 or 2 others of this age profile are in the best 22, our future looks a like brighter than it does now.
I'm sure there are a heap of other examples from that draft range.
Also, its not about the pure diamonds that we missed in this period...they are just luck for the most part.
Its the 100+ gamer types that fill the void of the team (spots 14-22 on the team) that make a difference.

What i find interesting is our success 2005-20010 with late/ rookie selections versus 2015-present.
I cant help but think the strategy and traits we looked for were different back then to what they are now (namely, late picks are for need etc).

Anyway, lets hope we can find a balance between age profile and list needs rather than just going all out on young talent and lamenting when they don't fulfill the expectations placed on them by their junior career.....

Mid-30s picks are not particularly 'sure things'. Statistically most of them fail to play 100+ games. Sier showed more than enough in the second half of 2018 for me to think that the talent is definitely there

 

[Mateyman]

Our problem lies in what we have left from the last 6 drafts

At the moment, from those years we have 2 well established best 22 players, Quaynor and Daicos, who you can be comfortable expecting to have long term serious careers.

Noble is also best 22 but less certainty long term

Poulter, McCreery and Bianco are the youngsters who have shown promise and look to have the tools to become best 22

Henry and McCrae are higher draft picks, at least for the current Collingwood list, who generate hope but havent shown anything at senior level yet

Reef and McMahon havent got a take on them yet

Rantall, Ruscoe later draft picks who havent shown much

Johnson, Begg MSD picks who are purely hope.


We clearly lack for young players who come to the club and suggest early days they are serious talents. Maybe next year with Nick

Compared to almost all other lists our young talent is sparse and we are looking at a rebuild that will take 3-5 seasons.

Thats the basis and expectation I would bring a new coach in with.

I agree with the last 6 drafts being a significant hole in our list. Having said that, I'm much more optimistic than you. I think Poulter and McCreery are pretty clearly best 22 already. Looks like Bianco is going that way to me and I think they've all got the potential to improve from there. This gives us at least 5 players in the best 22 from that age bracket, including 4 who are 20 or under. I don't think that's too bad. Rantall, Henry and McCrae haven't had a lot of opportunity yet so we'll have to see but if a couple of them come good and perhaps one or two of Reef/McMahon/Johnson/Begg that's not looking too bad.

 

[MyManLynch]

Why hasnt it worked for Carlton with all their very low picks?

That‘s why there’s a review…to find out why.
They are underperformin.

 

[Billys Back]

I'd have a larger group of players I'd put in the up for trade category. Throw up Sier, WHE, and maybe Howe as well. Widen the net of potential interest and choose whatever maximises our return. Hopefully the club has learned from the past and plays a smarter game to improve outcomes and manage player fallout.

Within 2 years we will likely see the retirements of Pendles, Sidebottom, Howe, Roughhead, Mayne and Greenwood.
We will then probably be running with one of the most inexperienced lists in the game. Needs to be a balance between kids and experience. So we need to be careful how many senior players we toss. Otherwise we could have a Carlton or even Melbourne type experience where u end up having multiple rebuilds.

 

[snagbreac18]

I'd have a larger group of players I'd put in the up for trade category. Throw up Sier, WHE, and maybe Howe as well. Widen the net of potential interest and choose whatever maximises our return. Hopefully the club has learned from the past and plays a smarter game to improve outcomes and manage player fallout.

WHE has some value. I think moving him to the wing was a good idea. The problem is he wants to play for Collingwood. He went for them as a kid.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Within 2 years we will likely see the retirements of Pendles, Sidebottom, Howe, Roughhead, Mayne and Greenwood.
We will then probably be running with one of the most inexperienced lists in the game. Needs to be a balance between kids and experience. So we need to be careful how many senior players we toss. Otherwise we could have a Carlton or even Melbourne type experience where u end up having multiple rebuilds.

I agree we need to be cautious in that regard. But we need more draft picks. It's as simple as that. There's only one way we're going to get them. We can top up the list with some experienced free agents, mature agers when needed.

 

[peter9789]

If we want to rebuild through the draft it means looking at moving Cox, Sidebottom, Elliot* for what we can get.

Elliot is still under 30 but body wise is probably in his last 50 career games. Ditto Sidebottom and Cox. But clubs out there might show interest netting us potentially 3 x late 2nd to mid 3rd rd picks to pay for Daicos, Dib... and maybe bring in another kid or upgrade a further rookie

Would still leave a decent senior group in Adams, Moore, Grundy, Crisp, De Goey, Maynard... and Pendlebury, Howe and Roughead in the shorter term... to guide the kids through

You then have J Daicos, Quaynor, Noble, Poulter, Mccreery, McRae, Henry, McInnes, Murphy, Keane/Kelly, N Daicos forming a core under 25 group

But there is no expediency to the rebuild if we continue with so many 30+ year olds on our list

We need to move on some of the older players to free up cap, senior list spots and net us further draft picks this year and next

I agree with this. I posted elsewhere the need to be looking at what assets we have available to trade out. Elliott wont be part of our next flag tilt and would be a very attractive to clubs in the window. Maybe a future 1st rounder or something for him?

 

[Snake_Baker]

1) Get a couple of decent KPP's on to the list
2) STOP overcooking the football
3) Be more DIRECT!

The numbers don't lie, Collingwood are right up in the possession numbers, but do not have a relatively decent return of metres gained and I50's/scoring shots based upon that weight of possession. I posted data about this here before this season started.

 

[Carringbush2010]

What too many fail to take into account is two absolute tragedies that derailed the club and the results are still holding us back.

Shazza and Freeman should have set us up for years but instead they turned into millstones around our neck and the after affects are still being felt.

We lost Swanny at least 2 years too soon due to a freak injury - and he was still at the top of his game.

Yes the list management of late has been ordinary but in the normal run of things without those disasters we should have at least one - if not two - more flags.

That maybe true, but as you stated the list management, if that could've been avoided we'd also one or if not two more flags - regardless of the Berg or Freeman.

 

[Gone Critical]

I agree with the last 6 drafts being a significant hole in our list. Having said that, I'm much more optimistic than you. I think Poulter and McCreery are pretty clearly best 22 already. Looks like Bianco is going that way to me and I think they've all got the potential to improve from there. This gives us at least 5 players in the best 22 from that age bracket, including 4 who are 20 or under. I don't think that's too bad. Rantall, Henry and McCrae haven't had a lot of opportunity yet so we'll have to see but if a couple of them come good and perhaps one or two of Reef/McMahon/Johnson/Begg that's not looking too bad.

I have more caution about the new kids. It's too early to declare on most of them. I really like what I see from Poulter, McCreery and especially Biance but 6,7 and 2 games respectively is way too early to be marked as best 22. Best 22 to me is when you have had a season or two playing most games and when the selection committee meet you are an automatic in, no real discussion. Flipside is end of last season people were arguing Phillips wasn't best 22 even after 70 straight games.

It's too early to write any off and too early to declare any. There is also best 22 and BEST 22 if you like.

Phillips, Mayne, WHE, Thomas have been best 22 recent seasons. So have Pendles, Elliott, Howe, Sidey, Adams. But the latter are BEST 22. Thats my biggest concern. Our kids dont suggest a lot of top end talent. Its ok to have youngsters who can play in your best 22 but as it stands now if I look at most other clubs lists I would be taking their 24 year olds and under ahead of ours.

Re some teams like Carlton and Melbourne (for most of the last 2 decades) access to draft quality doesnt ensure success without good selections and especially good development. However if you don't have access to the top of the draft compared to most rivals it means your development and selection has to be way above most of your rivals. Not sure i see that in the current Collingwood set up. That's why I think patience and time will be needed while we build in the seasons ahead. Quick bounce back is unlikely.

 

[PieWithHorse]

I don’t think our list is in as bad shape as some people suggest. As players retire:

Assuming one of Keane, Tohill and or Kelly make the grade, that’s FB and CHB (Moore) covered. Maynard and Quaynor look solid as HBF’s. Noble has looked serviceable in a pocket. I think Murphy will end up playing here as well.

Midfield-wise N Daicos will hopefully take the mantle from Pendlebury over time. Adams, Crisp and Grundy aren’t going anywhere. Sier might make it. There’s also enough promising kids in J Daicos, Bianco, Poulter, McInnes, McCrae, Henry, and potentially Rantall on a wing.

Forward is where things get a bit tricky. We obviously have De Goey and hopefully McReery keeps improving, but after that it’s basically just McMahon of the kids coming through as a dedicated forward. Obviously some of these spots will be filled by those aforementioned - Henry and possible McInnes, but it’s light.

The good news is that small forwards don’t generally cost a lot in the draft or via trade. The bad news are young KPF’s are basically the most expensive and difficult position to fill.

If we can get some young forward talent through the door though, I don’t think things are as bad as they seem.

 

[10571z]

I’m confident in this club and list management. Since I was born I’ve seen us compete regularly in finals and rebuild multiple times successfully.

Sure we have made so blunders but every club has.

Won’t take long for us to be up the ladder again.

Obviously we will take the best kid this year in Daicos, following that we need a key forward prospect probably in 2022

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I agree with this. I posted elsewhere the need to be looking at what assets we have available to trade out. Elliott wont be part of our next flag tilt and would be a very attractive to clubs in the window. Maybe a future 1st rounder or something for him?

A first rounder for an injury prone 30 year old small forward? Clubs can pick up equivalent players like Stengle for free.... players with upside.

People really overrate the trade value of players on our list. They are either too young or too old to have material trade value.

Our players of decent trade value age (mid 20's) really dont exist unless we want to get rid of DeGoey.

 

[Billys Back]

A first rounder for an injury prone 30 year old small forward? Clubs can pick up equivalent players like Stengle for free.... players with upside.

People really overrate the trade value of players on our list. They are either too young or too old to have material trade value.

Our players of decent trade value age (mid 20's) really dont exist unless we want to get rid of DeGoey.

Elliot is an elite player. Stengel is nowhere near his league.
But you’re right. You need a club who is a couple pieces away from a potential flag who is the best hope of paying up for his skill set.
As you’ve seen Elliot is a smart match winner and not easy to match up.
If we can get a pick in the late teens or early 20s we’ll be doing well.
Beams after all netted Brisbane 2x first round picks and that was because we thought he was the missing piece we were desperate for.
So while unlikely, it’s not impossible.

 

[Billys Back]

I’d rather test the market for interest on Sidebottom

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Elliot is an elite player. Stengel is nowhere near his league.
But you’re right. You need a club who is a couple pieces away from a potential flag who is the best hope of paying up for his skill set.
As you’ve seen Elliot is a smart match winner and not easy to match up.
If we can get a pick in the late teens or early 20s we’ll be doing well.
Beams after all netted Brisbane 2x first round picks and that was because we thought he was the missing piece we were desperate for.
So while unlikely, it’s not impossible.

Yeah unfortunately we'd need a sucker to pay up.... and theres only one sucker at the trade table and thats Collingwood