Traded Collingwood trade #27 to Richmond for #38, #40 and F3

[Taylor]

 

[master bate]

I disagree. If you fix the points curve then it shouldn’t matter what type of picks are used to match it. Picks that are 30 picks after the bid won’t be worth much under an accurate curve.

Good point! I'd still like a rule to stop all the nonsense picks at the backend as a safeguard in case certain drafts are unbalanced on the points curve never catches up to the value of top picks. Plus it's just neater for the draft as well.

 

[RobJD]

Firstly, there is no integrity of the bidding system, it's all a farce.

But if it's Dogs 23, Pies 24 and Darcy gets picked at pick 2, then pick 23 gets consumed in paying for pick 2. Pick 24 moves back 1 with the addition of pick 2 to the draft pool, then gets moved forward 1 with pick 23 being taken out of the draft pool, ends up right back at 24.

If the Dogs had 22, 23 and Darcy went pick 2 and both picks got consumed, then the Pies pick 24 absolutely would end up back at 23 as well. Yes in that situation two teams would be using pick 23, but the only way it can be done is to value that pick when the Pies go to use it. Otherwise the opposite would be true, you'd have a draft that went pick 22 then pick 24 and no one would be pick 23 in that draft!

The order and the points of the picks are valued at what they are when they are needed. Hence the Saints coming in to this draft with picks in the 60's trying to match academy players who probably go in the 20's or 30's. They know after the Daicos and Darcy bids consume a stack of picks in the 30's and 40's their picks will move in and be valued as picks in the 50's or even late 40's.

Cool - that's consistent with my understanding. Thx for the confirmation

 

[Mr Magic]

Firstly, there is no integrity of the bidding system, it's all a farce.

But if it's Dogs 23, Pies 24 and Darcy gets picked at pick 2, then pick 23 gets consumed in paying for pick 2. Pick 24 moves back 1 with the addition of pick 2 to the draft pool, then gets moved forward 1 with pick 23 being taken out of the draft pool, ends up right back at 24.

If the Dogs had 22, 23 and Darcy went pick 2 and both picks got consumed, then the Pies pick 24 absolutely would end up back at 23 as well. Yes in that situation two teams would be using pick 23, but the only way it can be done is to value that pick when the Pies go to use it. Otherwise the opposite would be true, you'd have a draft that went pick 22 then pick 24 and no one would be pick 23 in that draft!

The order and the points of the picks are valued at what they are when they are needed. Hence the Saints coming in to this draft with picks in the 60's trying to match academy players who probably go in the 20's or 30's. They know after the Daicos and Darcy bids consume a stack of picks in the 30's and 40's their picks will move in and be valued as picks in the 50's or even late 40's.

Darcy goes at pick 22 and 23 so 23 is used as well as 22.

Pies is still 24 but because Darcy used two picks(if not more), Pies can pick from more players that are left and npt yet picked including presumably Daicos

 

[master bate]

Darcy goes at pick 22 and 23 so 23 is used as well as 22.

Pies is still 24 but because Darcy used two picks(if not more), Pies can pick from more players that are left and npt yet picked including presumably Daicos

I have absolutely no idea what you're trying to say.

 

[Mr Magic]

I have absolutely no idea what you're trying to say.

If what you say is true the Bulldogs and Pies would trade up not down to claim higher points because just say Pies had pick 2 and bulldogs pick 3.

North picks Daicos and Darcy first before JHF. What your suggesting is even though Bulldogs is pick 3 both Pies and Bulldogs can claim points of pick 2. That is both claim 2517 points instead of 2517 and 2234.

Here is another question.

North have pick one.

They pick Daicos,its matched 2400 points needed.

North still have pick one, they pick Daicos.

Is Bulldogs supposed to match with 2400 or 2014?

 

[RobJD]

Darcy goes at pick 22 and 23 so 23 is used as well as 22.

Pies is still 24 but because Darcy used two picks(if not more), Pies can pick from more players that are left and npt yet picked including presumably Daicos

Not sure I understand - In this instance, if Darcy was to go at Pick 22, then Picks 22 and 23 can't be used to match it - as that would mean that the club who bid, also matched! If you mean if Darcy went at 2 and 22 and 23 were used to match, then I believe that Pick 24 would become Pick 23 (back one place for the matched bid and forward two places for the picks used to match the bid) - Noted that 22 and 23 alone can't cover all the points required for a F/S at Pick 2.

 

[Mr Magic]

Not sure I understand - In this instance, if Darcy was to go at Pick 22, then Picks 22 and 23 can't be used to match it - as that would mean that the club who bid, also matched! If you mean if Darcy went at 2 and 22 and 23 were used to match, then I believe that Pick 24 would become Pick 23 (back one place for the matched bid and forward two places for the picks used to match the bid) - Noted that 22 and 23 alone can't cover all the points required for a F/S at Pick 2.

I believe your wrong and when I say go I am referring to a earlier pick so 22 and 23 as well as others get used for points

 

[RobJD]

I believe your wrong and when I say go I am referring to a earlier pick so 22 and 23 as well as others get used for points

Ok - so as I explain, if 22 and 23 are used, then Pick 24 would become Pick 23 - not stay as Pick 24.

 

[Suma Magic]

Cheers, thanks for clarifying - the nut of the question is not really what the pick is, it's what the points allocated to the pick are. In your example, is the original pick that is part of the match for the Daicos bid worth 465 points (value of the pick at the time of the start of the draft as selection 38) or is the bid worth 483 points (value of the pick at the time that the pick is consumed as selection 37)?

I think if a pick is used twice in separate occasions, they have the same points value on both occasions.

 

[Suma Magic]

Good point! I'd still like a rule to stop all the nonsense picks at the backend as a safeguard in case certain drafts are unbalanced on the points curve never catches up to the value of top picks. Plus it's just neater for the draft as well.

If the curve is accurate, then trading late picks for earlier picks will be just as likely to net you more points as trading early picks for late picks.

The issue isn’t that clubs can trade back in the draft.

The issue is that clubs who need points can do trades with clubs who don’t need points, where they can easily increase the amount of points they have. This is undesirable no matter how it’s done.

If the curve was too steep then clubs could trade a couple of late picks for an early pick and improve their points position. Currently, the curve is too flat so the opposite is true. Both of these outcomes are equally undesirable.

 

[Suma Magic]

Why would they??

The Bulldogs or Pies used the picks, they did not go away. Gill or whoever does not call them out because they where used

It also means two picks could be used for the same points which comprising the integrity of the bidding system.

Just say Bulldogs had pick 23 which they do and Pies had pick 24.

Bulldogs bid on earlier selection for Darcy so 23 and its points get used.


Not long after Daicos gets picked and Pies match. Surely Bulldogs and Pies can't use the same points value of 23 for separate bids otherwise the Daicos bid does not recognise the previous Darcy bid. Surely the Daicos bid uses pick 24 points knowing pick 23 points was used on Darcy before and has been used

I don’t know why it works like it does, but I’m pretty sure I accurately described how it works.

 

[RobJD]

I think if a pick is used twice in separate occasions, they have the same points value on both occasions.

Great - so that would mean that if a bid for Darcy precedes the bid for Daicos, then the Pies picks would be elevated to backfill the picks used by the Doggies in the matching of the bid - I reckon that would amount to more than 200 additional points than before the matched bid. That would mean that the Pies could trade out Picks 36 and 38!

 

[Suma Magic]

Great - so that would mean that if a bid for Darcy precedes the bid for Daicos, then the Pies picks would be elevated to backfill the picks used by the Doggies in the matching of the bid - I reckon that would amount to more than 200 additional points than before the matched bid. That would mean that the Pies could trade out Picks 36 and 38!

Yeah I suppose so. I haven’t done the sums but would interested to see them if you have done them.

 

[TheTassieHawk]

I think that clubs should be able to match bids with a maximum of 2 picks. If this tweak causes more difficulty than intended then slightly increase the discount from the current 20% to compensate.

 

[RobJD]

Yeah I suppose so. I haven’t done the sums but would interested to see them if you have done them.

Here's my calcs: the picks add up to 1735 and you need 1787 for a bid on Daics @ 3 - picks 36 and 38 could be traded for a F2 and a late pick to cover the shortfall of 52 points (or the shorfall could be carried into 2022 R1 as a points deficit - the deficit won't matter as they won't lose any 2022 places as a result of a 52 point point deduction) - I'm interested to see what happens with the Pies pick 79 - after the bid match, that would come into Pick 69

	​ Pick 40 becomes 39​ 446​ Pick 46 becomes 42​ 412​ Pick 48 becomes 44​ 362​ Pick 55 becomes 50​ 273​ Pick 58 becomes 53​ 233​ Pick 78 becomes 73​ 9​ Total points 1735​ Points required to match a bid at 3 - 1787​

 

[master bate]

If what you say is true the Bulldogs and Pies would trade up not down to claim higher points because just say Pies had pick 2 and bulldogs pick 3.

North picks Daicos and Darcy first before JHF. What your suggesting is even though Bulldogs is pick 3 both Pies and Bulldogs can claim points of pick 2. That is both claim 2517 points instead of 2517 and 2234.

Here is another question.

North have pick one.

They pick Daicos,its matched 2400 points needed.

North still have pick one, they pick Daicos.

Is Bulldogs supposed to match with 2400 or 2014?

I still have very little idea what you're trying to say.

North have pick 1.

They will either pick JHF or bid on a father son, mostly likely Daicos.

If North bid on Daicos with pick 1, the Pies will have to match that bid. That will cost them 2400 points and in terms of their draft picks it will bite in to a good chunk of their picks, which as currently stand are 36, 38, 40, 46, 48.

If North select JHF with pick 1, then GWS - who hold pick 2 - will likely bid on Daicos or Darcy. If for instance the bid comes for Daicos first then the Pies will have to match 80% of pick 2 (2517 points) which is 2014.

Once the Pies have matched GWS are now on the clock with pick 3, if they bid for Darcy then the Dogs are matching 80% of pick 3 (2234) points, which is 1787 points. As it currently stands they'll be using picks 23, 43, 44, 45, but the Dogs will likely have plenty of trades to be made and it's likely the picks in the 40's will come in a few spots if the Pies match Daicos first.

Each time a player gets drafted, whether that's from a straight up draft pick or using the bid/match system the draft records them as a pick and moves to the next spot. So North could end up bidding for both Darcy and Daicos and then picking JHF but those guys wouldn't all be the number 1 pick. That's pick 1, pick 2 and pick 3. Teams matching bids only have to match the bid for when their player in picked even if it's the same team bidding multiple times.

 

[Suma Magic]

Here's my calcs: the picks add up to 1735 and you need 1787 for a bid on Daics @ 3 - picks 36 and 38 could be traded for a F2 and a late pick to cover the shortfall of 52 points (or the shorfall could be carried into 2022 R1 as a points deficit - the deficit won't matter as they won't lose any 2022 places as a result of a 52 point point deduction) - I'm interested to see what happens with the Pies pick 79 - after the bid match, that would come into Pick 69

	​ Pick 40 becomes 39​ 446​ Pick 46 becomes 42​ 412​ Pick 48 becomes 44​ 362​ Pick 55 becomes 50​ 273​ Pick 58 becomes 53​ 233​ Pick 78 becomes 73​ 9​ Total points 1735​ Points required to match a bid at 3 - 1787​

What picks are you assuming are used to match a potential bid for Darcy at pick 2?

 

[RobJD]

What picks are you assuming are used to match a potential bid for Darcy at pick 2?

I've assumed that Pick 23 will be split with either Gee, Syd or WCE for picks - the other picks are: 43, 44 and 45 and some of 52

 

[Suma Magic]

I've assumed that Pick 23 will be split with either Gee, Syd or WCE for picks - the other picks are: 43, 44 and 45 and some of 52

These are my calculations on a Darcy bid at 2 and a Daicos bid at 3.


Dogs wouldn't have enough points to match without pick 23.

Dogs to match 2013.6 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
23​	23​			Not used
43​	43​	378​	1635.6​	Gone
44​	44​	362​	1273.6​	Gone
45​	45​	347​	926.6​	Gone
52​	52​	246​	680.6​	Gone

So using pick 23.

Dogs to match 2013.6 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
23​	23​	815​	1198.6​	Gone
43​	43​	378​	820.6​	Gone
44​	44​	362​	458.6​	Gone
45​	45​	347​	111.6​	Gone
52​	52​	246​	-134.4​	Moved back to around 62

I then assumed Pies traded out 36 and so didn't use it to match the bid. I tried to do it after trading 36 and 38, but there wasn't enough points for this.

None of 36, 38 or 40 would change for the pies if the dogs matched a darcy bid at 2. 23 going would be offset by pick 2 pushing picks down. 46 onwards would improve a bit for the pies.

Pies to match 1787.2 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
36​	36​	502​		Assumed traded out
38​	38​	465​	1322.2​	Gone
40​	40​	429​	893.2​	Gone
46​	43​	378​	515.2​	Gone
48​	45​	347​	168.2​	Gone
55​	51​	259​	-90.8​	Moved back to around 65
58​	54​	220​		Not needed
78​	75​	0​

 

[RobJD]

These are my calculations on a Darcy bid at 2 and a Daicos bid at 3.


Dogs wouldn't have enough points to match without pick 23.

Dogs to match 2013.6 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
23​	23​			Not used
43​	43​	378​	1635.6​	Gone
44​	44​	362​	1273.6​	Gone
45​	45​	347​	926.6​	Gone
52​	52​	246​	680.6​	Gone

So using pick 23.

Dogs to match 2013.6 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
23​	23​	815​	1198.6​	Gone
43​	43​	378​	820.6​	Gone
44​	44​	362​	458.6​	Gone
45​	45​	347​	111.6​	Gone
52​	52​	246​	-134.4​	Moved back to around 62

I then assumed Pies traded out 36 and so didn't use it to match the bid. I tried to do it after trading 36 and 38, but there wasn't enough points for this.

None of 36, 38 or 40 would change for the pies if the dogs matched a darcy bid at 2. 23 going would be offset by pick 2 pushing picks down. 46 onwards would improve a bit for the pies.

Pies to match 1787.2 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
36​	36​	502​		Assumed traded out
38​	38​	465​	1322.2​	Gone
40​	40​	429​	893.2​	Gone
46​	43​	378​	515.2​	Gone
48​	45​	347​	168.2​	Gone
55​	51​	259​	-90.8​	Moved back to around 65
58​	54​	220​		Not needed
78​	75​	0​

My assumption was that the Doggies will split 23 for two picks in the 30's - so my math is a little different. I've also assumed that the Pies will be prepared to take an insignificant deficit into 2022 R1. If that happens then 38 can be traded out.

 

[Suma Magic]

My assumption was that the Doggies will split 23 for two picks in the 30's - so my math is a little different. I've also assumed that the Pies will be prepared to take an insignificant deficit into 2022 R1. If that happens then 38 can be traded out.

Ok, I've redone with those.

I don't think pies will want any deficit. Even the tiniest deficit moves a top pick back a spot. That's assuming that, for example, a 1 point deficit would move a future pick 1 to pick 2. I can't find anything to confirm that this is the case, although I assume that you couldn't have a situation where a club has a deficit and it doesn't result in a change to their future pick.

Pies should be able to avoid a deficit with a bit of draft night trading though.

Dogs to match 2013.6 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
31​	31​	606​	1407.6​	Gone
39​	39​	446​	961.6​
43​	43​	378​	583.6​	Gone
44​	44​	362​	221.6​	Gone
45​	45​	347​	-125.4​	Moved back to around 62
52​	52​	246​		Not needed
Pies to match 1787.2 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
36​	36​	502​		Assumed traded out
38​	38​	465​		Assumed traded out
40​	39​	446​	1341.2​	Gone
46​	42​	395​	946.2​	Gone
48​	44​	362​	584.2​	Gone
55​	51​	259​	325.2​	Gone
58​	54​	220​	105.2​	Gone
78​	75​	0​		105.2 point deficit.
				Deficit would move picks 1-7 back a single spot.
				Deficit would move picks 8-14 back 2 spots.

 

[perplexed]

Ok, I've redone with those.

I don't think pies will want any deficit. Even the tiniest deficit moves a top pick back a spot. That's assuming that, for example, a 1 point deficit would move a future pick 1 to pick 2. I can't find anything to confirm that this is the case, although I assume that you couldn't have a situation where a club has a deficit and it doesn't result in a change to their future pick.

Pies should be able to avoid a deficit with a bit of draft night trading though.

Dogs to match 2013.6 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
31​	31​	606​	1407.6​	Gone
39​	39​	446​	961.6​
43​	43​	378​	583.6​	Gone
44​	44​	362​	221.6​	Gone
45​	45​	347​	-125.4​	Moved back to around 62
52​	52​	246​		Not needed
Pies to match 1787.2 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
36​	36​	502​		Assumed traded out
38​	38​	465​		Assumed traded out
40​	39​	446​	1341.2​	Gone
46​	42​	395​	946.2​	Gone
48​	44​	362​	584.2​	Gone
55​	51​	259​	325.2​	Gone
58​	54​	220​	105.2​	Gone
78​	75​	0​		105.2 point deficit.
				Deficit would move picks 1-7 back a single spot.
				Deficit would move picks 8-14 back 2 spots.

That's not what happened last year with Freo's pick. A small deficit doesn't affect your pick in the following year. It has to be larger than the difference in points between your current pick and the next one.

 

[RobJD]

Ok, I've redone with those.

I don't think pies will want any deficit. Even the tiniest deficit moves a top pick back a spot. That's assuming that, for example, a 1 point deficit would move a future pick 1 to pick 2. I can't find anything to confirm that this is the case, although I assume that you couldn't have a situation where a club has a deficit and it doesn't result in a change to their future pick.

Pies should be able to avoid a deficit with a bit of draft night trading though.

Dogs to match 2013.6 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
31​	31​	606​	1407.6​	Gone
39​	39​	446​	961.6​
43​	43​	378​	583.6​	Gone
44​	44​	362​	221.6​	Gone
45​	45​	347​	-125.4​	Moved back to around 62
52​	52​	246​		Not needed
Pies to match 1787.2 points
Pick start of draft	Pick when matching	Points	Bal	Result
36​	36​	502​		Assumed traded out
38​	38​	465​		Assumed traded out
40​	39​	446​	1341.2​	Gone
46​	42​	395​	946.2​	Gone
48​	44​	362​	584.2​	Gone
55​	51​	259​	325.2​	Gone
58​	54​	220​	105.2​	Gone
78​	75​	0​		105.2 point deficit.
				Deficit would move picks 1-7 back a single spot.
				Deficit would move picks 8-14 back 2 spots.

Regarding the deficit - I'm assured via another thread that a deficit doesn't automatically lead to a shift in pick position. The outcome of the discussion was that as long as your net points total is more than the the next lowest pick's points total, there's no damage - in the instance above, the Pies R1 pick would only be impacted if the Pies finished with Pick 7 or later. Haven't found anything that formally defines the rules.

 

[Suma Magic]

Regarding the deficit - I'm assured via another thread that a deficit doesn't automatically lead to a shift in pick position. The outcome of the discussion was that as long as your net points total is more than the the next lowest pick's points total, there's no damage - in the instance above, the Pies R1 pick would only be impacted if the Pies finished with Pick 7 or later. Haven't found anything that formally defines the rules.

Yeah you're right. I just found the evidence: