Traded Collingwood trade pick 55 to St Kilda in exchange for a future 4th (Adelaide)

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Crazy Tails

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I’m hoping this trade is all part of a plan to get back into the top 25 of this year via a draft night trade; after Daicos is secured.

Would 2 future 3rds (tied to Hawks and Tigers) and that newly acquired future 4th (tied to Crows) be enough for Lions to consider moving pick 18 (likely to be 20 after FS bids). Points for Ashcroft.


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Suma Magic

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I’m hoping this trade is all part of a plan to get back into the top 25 of this year via a draft night trade; after Daicos is secured.

Would 2 future 3rds (tied to Hawks and Tigers) and that newly acquired future 4th (tied to Crows) be enough for Lions to consider moving pick 18 (likely to be 20 after FS bids). Points for Ashcroft.


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Those three picks might end up being picks 40, 50 and 60. I imagine that would be nowhere near enough for pick 18.
 

Crazy Tails

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Those three picks might end up being picks 40, 50 and 60. I imagine that would be nowhere near enough for pick 18.

Think about it from a points perspective; those 3 picks (if 40,50 & 60) represent 848 draft points. That is equal to pick 22.

The Lions pick 18 is likely to be pushed out to 20 once the Daicos and Darcy bids are matched.

It’s not that far off the mark really; considering the Lions need future points for Ashcroft.


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Suma Magic

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Think about it from a points perspective; those 3 picks (if 40,50 & 60) represent 848 draft points. That is equal to pick 22.

The Lions pick 18 is likely to be pushed out to 20 once the Daicos and Darcy bids are matched.

It’s not that far off the mark really; considering the Lions need future points for Ashcroft.


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There would surely be another club willing and able to offer more to brissy though.

The pies got much more for pick 27 than you are proposing they pay for pick 18. It just doesn’t align with market value.
 
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perplexed

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Think about it from a points perspective; those 3 picks (if 40,50 & 60) represent 848 draft points. That is equal to pick 22.

The Lions pick 18 is likely to be pushed out to 20 once the Daicos and Darcy bids are matched.

It’s not that far off the mark really; considering the Lions need future points for Ashcroft.


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Congratulations! I think this could be the worst trade suggestion I have heard this year.

If a team is trading back for points they could expect twice as many as you are offering.

Also, Brisbane still have next year's first and second they can trade back for points if they need to. They would be giving up a first round pick for basically nothing.
 

bird_man

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Think about it from a points perspective; those 3 picks (if 40,50 & 60) represent 848 draft points. That is equal to pick 22.

The Lions pick 18 is likely to be pushed out to 20 once the Daicos and Darcy bids are matched.

It’s not that far off the mark really; considering the Lions need future points for Ashcroft.


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Brisbane already have enough points for Ashcroft. They aren't giving up a top 20 pick for 3 junk picks.
 

TheTassieHawk

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There would surely be another club willing and able to offer more to brissy though.

The pies got much more for pick 27 than you are proposing they pay for pick 18. It just doesn’t align with market value.

Precisely.

There are 16 other clubs and it wo told make sense that several of those would offer Brisbane a much better deal than that assuming they want to trade out pick 18.

If a Daicos bid comes later than pick 2 then I can see the Pies being able to trade back into the 2nd round but it would seem to be more likely it is in the 28-36 range than earlier.
 

JasRulz63

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Think about it from a points perspective; those 3 picks (if 40,50 & 60) represent 848 draft points. That is equal to pick 22.

The Lions pick 18 is likely to be pushed out to 20 once the Daicos and Darcy bids are matched.

It’s not that far off the mark really; considering the Lions need future points for Ashcroft.


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Even if we did want to trade our current first round pick away for points (which makes no sense considering we already have to trade our first and second round picks away for points next year which will net us plenty), teams typically overpay points wise to get a team's first round pick that wants to trade it away.

The Dogs got pick 9 worth of points for pick 17, and you're suggesting picks equivalent to pick 22 is not far off the mark? Laughable.
 

maanco

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With tight list spots clubs want to use more higher value picks than more lower value picks.

For example if my club is only taking 3 picks in the draft. I would be more inclined to use picks 3, 40 and 50.

Instead of picks 20, 25 and 30.

Therefore I wouldn't trade pick 3 for 20, 25, 30 and 45. Even though it's 400+ draft points.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Precisely.

There are 16 other clubs and it wo told make sense that several of those would offer Brisbane a much better deal than that assuming they want to trade out pick 18.

If a Daicos bid comes later than pick 2 then I can see the Pies being able to trade back into the 2nd round but it would seem to be more likely it is in the 28-36 range than earlier.

Agree 25-35 is about the range the pies and dogs will be able to trade back into.
 

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Suma Magic

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Shows how stupid the points system is. The curve needs to be steepened significantly.

Clubs being able to trade high picks for lower picks of significantly higher points value hurts the 16 clubs not involved in the deal.
 

Ants

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Shows how stupid the points system is. The curve needs to be steepened significantly.

Clubs being able to trade high picks for lower picks of significantly higher points value hurts the 16 clubs not involved in the deal.
The points system is based on the historical record of the draft picks. So it reflects the percentage chance of each draft pick becoming a quality player. What we may actually have is punters' misconceptions about how likely higher draft picks are to land a player than later ones. It is higher, but not by as much as people perceive.

(Edit: and to be fair on punters, I don't think that ranking considered quality, just number of games. So pick 20-24 might not have a huge discrepancy in games played over 25-29, but maybe the players picked performed better in each game).
 
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RobJD

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Agree 25-35 is about the range the pies and dogs will be able to trade back into.
I don't get why the Pies are so keen to trade back into this years draft now, when last year they were so keen to trade out of it!
 

TradeDraft

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Think about it from a points perspective; those 3 picks (if 40,50 & 60) represent 848 draft points. That is equal to pick 22.

The Lions pick 18 is likely to be pushed out to 20 once the Daicos and Darcy bids are matched.

It’s not that far off the mark really; considering the Lions need future points for Ashcroft.


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Lions might be the only Team looking to Trade Out because of needing Point for a High Bid next year for Ashcroft
 

Suma Magic

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The points system is based on the historical record of the draft picks. So it reflects the percentage chance of each draft pick becoming a quality player. What we may actually have is punters' misconceptions about how likely higher draft picks are to land a player than later ones. It is higher, but not by as much as people perceive.

(Edit: and to be fair on punters, I don't think that ranking considered quality, just number of games. So pick 20-24 might not have a huge discrepancy in games played over 25-29, but maybe the players picked performed better in each game).

The points system should align with the market value of draft picks. Not the intrinsic value. The last decade has shown us that clubs value lower picks significantly lower than the points system does.

The points system says that pick 50 is worth 30% of pick 20.

Analysis of all pick for pick trades suggests that pick 50 is worth around 19% of pick 20.
 
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perplexed

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Lions might be the only Team looking to Trade Out because of needing Point for a High Bid next year for Ashcroft
They have a first and second next year which they can trade down for enough points to cover any bid on Ashcroft. There is no benefit at all for them in trading a first rounder out of this draft. Though, they will likely try and trade out 41, 60 & 76, if there are any takers.
 

TheTassieHawk

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The points system should align with the market value of draft picks. Not the intrinsic value. The last decade has shown us that clubs value lower picks significantly lower than the points system does.

The points system says that pick 50 is worth 30% of pick 20.

Analysis of all pick for pick trades suggests that pick 50 is worth around 19% of pick 20.

If clubs were limited to using a maximum of 2 picks to match a bid then the relative value of picks along the curve would be far less important.
 

Suma Magic

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If clubs were limited to using a maximum of 2 picks to match a bid then the relative value of picks along the curve would be far less important.

That’s true.

But if you make the curve accurate, then you wouldn’t need a maximum.
 

Ants

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I don't get why the Pies are so keen to trade back into this years draft now, when last year they were so keen to trade out of it!
Because clubs like to pull picks forward if they can without losing the quality of a pick. Well, other than Gold Coast. Melbourne's being doing it for years. The basis is that if you have a pick this year versus next, this year is better since the kid will have 12 months of development by the time you get to next year's draft and be able to impact earlier.
 

RobJD

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Because clubs like to pull picks forward if they can without losing the quality of a pick. Well, other than Gold Coast. Melbourne's being doing it for years. The basis is that if you have a pick this year versus next, this year is better since the kid will have 12 months of development by the time you get to next year's draft and be able to impact earlier.
Yeah I get that, it's a bit like the interest free period on your credit card, if we can trade our F1 for an over the odds offer then go for it - I'm concerned that the Pies have a recent tendency of losing perspective , e.g., last year's trade of our F1 - future trading works well when you over achieve, it's the opposite when you under achieve.
 

Prochard123

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Very high chance St Kilda's future 4th is a worse pick than 55.

Pick 55 also has value to us this year by offering the flexibility to trade 36/38.

The only way this trade makes any sense would be to complete a full list of futures so we can trade our future 1st again, which is another move I disagree with.
 

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