Here is my latest on what I think will happen. FWIW I actually think Nathan Freeman trade is holding a lot of this up for us.
Paul Seedsman for pick 32
Nathan Freeman for pick 24 (2015)
Adam Treloar for pick 7 (2015 and 2016) which would give Treloar a value of 3288 points making him more than a pick 1. To that end sensible we get their pick 27 back which would effectively value him at pick 2 on the points calculator. I have no doubt if someone had offered GWS pick 2 then they would have jumped at it. Am hoping Finlayson involved but its more hopeful than anything. Hine has had a win if he is.
James Aish will then get traded for picks 24 and 26 which have a total value of 1514 points valuing him at effectively pick 9 which is probably slight overs and hence suspect we may get either their #43 or #57 selection. If we didn't have the #24 from St Kilda then I think we would give them the #27 from GWS instead.
Jeremy Howe will get done in a complicated deal I reckon which effectively will see us part with Kennedy and our pick # 44.
Others
Alan Toovey - to be honest I would let him go and get a pick back for him or trade one of ours up. Surely Marsh, Scharenberg, Williams, Langdon, Ramsay (if fit) need to be given preference. I love the bloke so happy for him to stay but skill level hurts us and not sure he will be in our best 22 for long.
Jarryd Blair - for mine he has to go. When I do my best 22 he ranks about 27-29 and hence if you could get a 3rd rounder for him or use him in a trade i would. Again great club man so if he stays terrific but I dont want to see him in the best 22 at the start of the year.
What does it all mean
Senior List = 34
ND Selections = 6 but more likely I think to take 3
Pre Season Draft = I think they will take 3 in the ND and leave one for the PSD
Rookie List = 3
Rookie Draft Selections = 3
National Draft Selections
# 27 - Clayton Oliver - midfielder
You would hope Rioli gets through but I dont think he will. I would probably take the best player that was there and have an inkling that a guy like Clayton Oliver is there. Ben McKay would be another I would look at. Key forwards taken this late dont really have a great history of being successful but Ben is pretty new and raw so maybe. There are lots of other names around here that I would be ok with including Fiorini, Crocker, Partington, Hardwick, Clarke
# 32 - H.Kerbatieh - small forward
You would hope Rioli gets through but I dont think he will. I think its more likely a Kerbatieh is there and for mine he fills a need on our list. He is a bull and has real speed, agility and aggression. I love his attack on the footy and think he could have a real impact. Beaut kick to.
# 43 or 57 - Sam Skinner - key defender
I would love a pick around here because I think Sam Skinner is going to slide off the back of being injured all year. He was a selection around 20 at the start of the year and I have seen enough to think he would be a terrific player for our back half. Hard and tough and is very athletic when at his best. If it was pick 57 he wouldn't be there so I would then be looking at guys like Nick Coughlan in a similar role or players like Doedee and Perry who I think have huge upside and have wonderful athletic credentials.
Pre Season Draft
If a mature age player
# 7 - Spencer White
An immense talent as a junior and a bit of a bolter come draft day. He came along pretty well with the Saints and had one game that was really good over in Adelaide (think vs Port) where he showed a lot. Been delisted and suspect has a bit to do with work ethic. If club could convince themselves he would learn from that and make best of 2nd chance I would take him. Interestingly would also look at Markworth from St Kilda as another option. In all likelihood Collingwood will probably target some who is uncontracted and young. Wont have a heap of cash but someone around the $250k maybe possible (e.g. Brad McKenzie)
or if a kid
# 7 - Tom Doedee
Another player I really like who hasn't had a lot of exposed form but what he did was terrific. Can do some special things around the HB / Wing sort of area. Lovely size and terrific skills insomuch as accurate but also can punch the footy hard and weight the kids well. He is courageous and will run with the flight when needed and in fact got himself hurt pretty badly at one point so missed a lot of second half. Came back and had some good performances in Falcons finals.
Rookie Draft
# 7 - Callum Moore
Some might think it is odd that he will last this long and he may not but i have a huge draft range on him at the moment simply because I just dont know how clubs will rate his skill level. At times it is really poor and whilst I understand its getting better and an AFL environment I dont think it will see him taken in the first 50 or so (i.e. i think there will only be that number of live picks). Hence I am ranking around 50-60 range post Academy, F/S and rookie upgrade selections. He is super athletic, has terrific speed and a wonderful leap. It is just his kicking. Was close to being taken last year by us and did enough this year to suggest he should be taken.
# 25 - Matthew Perry
Am a huge fan.....but seemingly one of few. Was a terrific player in the Metro trials and then had some good games during the Champs to put his name up. reminds me a lot of Langford. Tall, athletic, composed, has good vision, good ball user and has that cat like movement and agility. Nice height at around 185cm or so. The knock on him is he is light and probably could be more consistent.
# 43 - Sam Menagola
I think he is 23yo now and on record saying he didn't handle his first stint well. Terrific athlete and a great size with good skill. Been sensational at WAFL this year (ave circa 25 touches and a goal plus a game) and polled well in the Sandover. His game in the GF was terrific. Take him in the rookie and give him a year and see how he goes.