Agree and hence I think the wisest thing to do is reference some recent trades for an indication. Before we start though let me say in such an even draft a couple of spots here and there arent going to matter as much as maybe previous years where there was a clear 'cliff point' in terms of talent. Alas,
Witts - the most like deals for him I can find are;
Tom Hickey went for pick 13 and some swapping of late picks. Remember Tom was barely in that side at the time.
Shaun Hampson went for pick 32 and was pretty well on the outer
Rhys Stanley went for pick 21. I think we were all surprised but its a good proxy
Sam Frost went for pick 23 and some swapping of late picks. Like Same not the same role but a young tall talent on the outer nonetheless.
Likely outcome - I am pretty bullish on this one. I think Collingwood might get into the first round with some swapping of late picks potentially. I am hopeful of a pick around 17-20 but realistically it might be 18-25. Equally think quite likely could form part of a Marchbank and / or WHE trade. Notwithstanding a few clubs are into him so that will drive price up.
Cloke - the proxies are best probably those older types that went;
Brian Lake went for pick 27
Joel Patfull went for pick 21
Bernie Vince went for pick 23. I think bernie went with 28 years under his belt and a few issues over his head.
Shane Mumford went for pick 35. Ultimtely more a money issue and Swans had to do right thing by him so probably unders for what he should have been.
Likely outcome - I would think a band of 20-25 for Travis would be about right and potentially a bit higher with swapping of selections.
Williams - the most like deals I can find are;
Jake Melksham went for pick 25
Curtly Hampton went for 2nd round 2016 pick which will be about 25 as well
Paul Seedsman went for pick 32
Matt Rosa went for pick 31
Shane Biggs went for pick 39
Likely Outcome - I reckon they are all reasonable proxies for a bloke who last year was flying albeit this year has struggled. I would think a pick around 35-40 is about right for Marley.
I would also add the following players as am pretty sure a few will be up and that CFC will be looking to take some picks in the 30-50 range and package them up to move there selections in the 20-30 range a bit higher. They will want to do that as they may be worried where the bids for Brown and Daicos will come. Ie they will most likely want at least one (maybe 2) selections before that is likely to happen.
Jack Frost - and i think his brother is a very good proxy but having said that it was a huge win for GWS. I would think something in the band of 30-50 about right for him.
Adam Oxley - Same would go for him. Personally like to see a good ball user who is a smart decision maker stay but we have a lot of his type.
Jarryd Blair - but nobody agrees with me on him so he stays but I reckon a pick around 35-45 about right.
Tim Broomhead - Again dont want him to go but previous trades suggest 22-35 range.
That would give us;
Witts - lets say 22
Cloke - lets say 25
2nd Round selection - 26
Williams - 37
Frost - 40
3rd Round selection - 44
Oxley - 45
4th Round selection - 62
I think Hine & Co will then look to get that pick 22 & 25 a bit higher by adding the 37, 40 and 44 to it and maybe even the 26. So for example;
22 & 26 might go for pick 10-15 (points system would get as high as 7 but unlikely to achieve that)
25 & 37 might go for pick 18 (points systems gets up close to 12 but again wont happen)
they would probably be confident that Daicos and Brown wont be bid on by then so the point from 40, 44, 45 and 62 used to pay for them and or take someone late that fills a gap.
So many ways it can go but a big driver will be getting picks above where they think the bids for Brown and Daicos will come.
Sorry that probably dragged on a bit ......