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Last time they met
West Coast 15.17 (107) def Collingwood 8.10 (58), Round 22, 2012 at Subiaco Oval
Melbourne weather forecast
Cloudy this morning with patchy drizzle, mostly in the southeast. A partly cloudy afternoon. Light winds.
Max 18˚
This week's guernsey
Named teams & Umpiring Appointments
mmm.. Chelsea!
Late Changes (tba @ 4.15pm WST): Nil
Substitutes (tba @ 4.15pm WST): Collingwood: Jamie Elliot, West Coast: Matt Rosa
Key Players
West Coast
1. Nic Naitanui - Absolutely must fire. There has been a trend in season 2012 for the West Coast, if Nic plays well, the Eagles win. If he doesn't then it makes life a whole lot harder. When they last met, Naitanui and Cox had a day out against young Wood. With Jolly back in the side it won't be that easy, but if he can find his touch early it may give the Eagles a great start.
2. Eric MacKenzie - Did the job on Travis when they last met, but then Cloke was not in good form. He has improved since then, but arguably he's not back to his best as yet only having played against Essendon and on Schoenmakers from Hawthorn last week. If MacKenzie can keep him quiet it may make it hard for the Pies to kick a big score, and it is likely Darren Glass will get the stay at home job on Dawes.
3. Daniel Kerr - Loves the big stage, and for the Eagles there is no bigger stage right now. Relished the freedom he enjoyed at Subi against the Pies. History says they won't tag him, but he had a field day in Round 22, will Collingwood change tack?
Collingwood
1. Travis Cloke - To be any chance, this man must kick goals. Without his influence, it is left to the likes of Beams and Fasolo to try and kick enough to win the match. Was more effective when the two sides met at the MCG earlier in the season when he could provide body on body contests with MacKenzie rather than be led up the ground. Will be an interesting tussle.
2. Darren Jolly - Will have the job ahead of him. Is likely to shoulder most of the ruck duties throughout the night, with Dawes as backup. May concede he cannot beat both Naitanui and Cox, but will attempt to provide first use to his clearance brigade where possible.
3. Tyson Goldsack / Alan Toovey - I've named both here as there is some speculation about who will go to Jack Darling and these two have been touted as likely candidates. With Kennedy back in the team, Darling has flourished. Whomever gets the job on him will have to run all night to keep up and pay very close attention to 'King' in the 'land of the giants'.
Summary
In a nutshell, Collingwood's form is questionable, the Eagles' form is not. On recent form, one would think that the Eagles have an easy game in front of them. Fortunately, most of us are smarter than that and know that finals footy can dish up a multitude of possibilities.
Once the national anthem is belted out following Sandy Roberts baritone introduction, all bets are off. West Coast, when travelling, are notoriously slow starters which Collingwood are aware of and should attempt to exploit.
Question marks are over the fitness of both Dayne Beams and Dale Thomas, either of which not firing is a big negative for Collingwood. The Eagles have a flock of players who have returned from injury and are better for the hit outs in recent weeks.
Let's not forget though, the game is played at the mecca of footy, the MCG where in front of a likely large parochial pro Collingwood crowd, the pies have the ability to lift a notch and can turn something special on. We all know they are capable of this, but the game hinges on two things. Which Collingwood side turns up, and which Eagles side turns up.
On the balance of recent form, and given it is very hard to flick a switch in a week, for that reason alone West Coast should get past Collingwood marginally in a close contest.
Verdict
West Coast by 4 points.
