Opinion Collingwood will return to finals footy in 2023

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HTPunter

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2014
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Would you like me to use a more dramatic adjective to appease you?

Once again, you’re dramatising Collingwood’s situation. Up until last year, they were playing finals, coming off a a GF and a Prelim, so I’d hardly classify it as a broken football club. I personally wouldn’t be comparing Collingwood to Adelaide and North. At the very least, Collingwood was competitive on field for majority of the season, unlike those two clubs at their worst.

Were you predicting Adelaide to finish above or below Essendon last season? They’ve leapfrogged Adelaide, and that’s putting it kindly.

And lastly, of course it’s easy to predict when clubs go into rebuild mode. Everyone automatically assumes they’ll be cellardwellars for the next 5 seasons. That’s pretty lazy IMO, thus the thread.
It is lazy to assume next 5 years and obviously there's always teams that break the rules (i.e. Dogs 2016) but looking at this side you posted

FB: Ruscoe, Moore, Noble
HB: Quaynor, Maynard, Crisp
C: J Daicos, N Daicos, Poulter
HF: Bianco, Kelly, Henry
FF: McCreery, JDG, Ginnivan
R: Grundy, Adams, Macrae
INT: Lynch, Wilson, Brown, Murphy

All of Ruscoe, N.Daicos, Poulter, Bianco, Kelly, Henry, McCreery, Ginnivan, Macrae, Lynch, Wilson, Brown, Murphy will have played sub 50 games by the end of 2023 (some a chance to reach it if they play every game). No matter how promising the kids are, this would be an all time out-of-order finals team. Ron The Bear would probably be able to provide some analysis on where a team like that fits.

Teams with 13 sub 50 game best 22 players don't make finals. Essendon scraped in with 8ish and that included more mature age players such as Waterman (24), Draper (22), Snelling (23 to 24), Hind (26), Ridley (22), Redman (23 to 24), majority of which would be older than the Pies group.
Even allowing for Roughead, Cameron, Elliott & Mihocek to hang around for that season wouldn't be enough.
Add in too short down back, too short up forward, it's a bottom 6 age and list development demographic. As for McCrae, he might be good, he might be bad, but I don't know of a new coach that HASN'T come in with hype about being rated in the industry etc - it's why they get the job??

Further, most clubs could throw in names like Ginnivan, McCreery, Ruscoe, Wilson, Lynch etc - mid/late/rookie draft selections with a handful of games to their name for exposure, without any guarantee of making it. Again, look at history, there's no way just on numbers they are all making it in such a way they push for finals as a bunch of 20 year olds.
Richmond of 2009-2012 built a successful dynasty and looking at their list of 2011 does not show great stats for how clubs build lists in terms of strike rate - more miss than hit.
 

doppleganger

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And you think this will be enough to slide on by 9 other clubs in 2 years without a CHB or FF?
We have the best CHB in the game - D.Moore

You can trade to plug gaps too you know?

We did OK when trading for Roughead, Howe and even Dunn was great for a few years.

IMHO % is a better indicator of a teams standing instead of pure W/L.

Pies were 85.6%, actually better than Hawthorn and within striking distance of all teams that made missed the 8 really.

Whether we move past teams in next couple of years will be more based our stars - Moore, DeGoey, Adams, Grundy, Maynard - who are in their prime and who had poor years in 2021 by their standards.
 

HTPunter

Norm Smith Medallist
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It's not doom and gloom, I agree. But in terms of making finals it's more looking at 1 or 2 good trade targets and keeping senior players around for a bit longer.

Try
FB: Maynard, Roughead, Noble
HB: Quaynor, Moore, Crisp
C: J Daicos, C.Brown, Hoskin-Elliott
HF: Macrae, Gunston, W.Kelly
FF: Elliott, Weideman, Bianco
R: Grundy, Adams, De Goey
INT: Cameron, Poulter, N.Daicos, Henry

Is looking more like a finals aged side.

The playing the kids side in OP is another bottom year.
 

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Ron The Bear

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All of Ruscoe, N.Daicos, Poulter, Bianco, Kelly, Henry, McCreery, Ginnivan, Macrae, Lynch, Wilson, Brown, Murphy will have played sub 50 games by the end of 2023 (some a chance to reach it if they play every game). No matter how promising the kids are, this would be an all time out-of-order finals team. Ron The Bear would probably be able to provide some analysis on where a team like that fits.
If that team played the next 44 games, it would be aged 24.52, avg gms 94.7 by week 1 of the 2023 finals.

It's not outrageous that it could be ready to play finals but of course that exact 22 will end up playing a handful of games together at most.
 

PieLebo87

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It's not doom and gloom, I agree. But in terms of making finals it's more looking at 1 or 2 good trade targets and keeping senior players around for a bit longer.

Try
FB: Maynard, Roughead, Noble
HB: Quaynor, Moore, Crisp
C: J Daicos, C.Brown, Hoskin-Elliott
HF: Macrae, Gunston, W.Kelly
FF: Elliott, Weideman, Bianco
R: Grundy, Adams, De Goey
INT: Cameron, Poulter, N.Daicos, Henry

Is looking more like a finals aged side.

The playing the kids side in OP is another bottom year.
I consciously went with just players we’re definitely going to have on our list in 2022, leaving out anyone over 27 for the sake of showing what we’ve got on the park.

Your 22 is far more accurate because the Elliotts and Mihoceks will still be there in 2023 + the recruitment department identifying trade options and recruiting to meet needs and fill holes. As you mentioned, Pies could be adding someone like Weideman this very off season that fills one glaring hole. I wasn’t going to play the assuming game by filling positions with players from other sides.
 

Kangas_11

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Sides like Carlton, North and GCS are notorious cellar dwellers, Collingwood is notorious for making finals, and contending, so I don’t reckon they’ll be down for as long as you think.
Richmond were the most notorious cellar dwellers in the comp for years. Past performance does not always indicate future success.
 

aussierulesrules

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Were you predicting Adelaide to finish above or below Essendon last season? They’ve leapfrogged Adelaide, and that’s putting it kindly.
Ladder positions at the end of each H&A season:

2020:

13th- Essendon
18th- Adelaide

2021:

8th- Essendon
15th- Adelaide

It’s complete nonsense to say that a team who finished 5 places higher than another team one year and then finished higher than them again the following year “leapfrogged” them. :drunk:

You literally have to be BEHIND someone to leapfrog them. You don’t leapfrog someone who’s behind you, going from in front of them to further in front of them!
 

PieLebo87

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Ladder positions at the end of each H&A season:

2020:

13th- Essendon
18th- Adelaide

2021:

8th- Essendon
15th- Adelaide

It’s complete nonsense to say that a team who finished 5 places higher than another team one year and then finished higher than them again the following year “leapfrogged” them. :drunk:

You literally have to be BEHIND someone to leapfrog them. You don’t leapfrog someone who’s behind you, going from in front of them to further in front of them!
Don’t be silly. Rewind back to last year, Crows won 3 of the last 4 games of the H&A season, only losing to the eventual premiers and Essendon then lost Fantasia, Daniher and Saad after finishing 13th. People were projecting Crows to rise a couple of spots (North, Hawks and Suns) through natural progression whilst the Bombers were being tipped to finish in the bottom 3.

Did you personally tip the Bombers to finish above the Crows and make finals this year?
 

Freomaniac

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Ladder positions at the end of each H&A season:

2020:

13th- Essendon
18th- Adelaide

2021:

8th- Essendon
15th- Adelaide

It’s complete nonsense to say that a team who finished 5 places higher than another team one year and then finished higher than them again the following year “leapfrogged” them. :drunk:

You literally have to be BEHIND someone to leapfrog them. You don’t leapfrog someone who’s behind you, going from in front of them to further in front of them!
so the crows will win the flag in 2022?
 

Tarkyn_24

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Gee this is great.

I’m sure there won’t be any opposition fans rushing in to gloat about how wrong you are, how woeful our list is and our mismanaged out cap has been. Rightly.

Thanks OP 👍
 

PieLebo87

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Gee this is great.

I just love morons that jump on the main board to make outlandish predictions about their own teams, particularly when they justify it by posting a big average pedestrian best 22 that is probably the best that they can come up with.

I’m sure there won’t be any opposition fans rushing in to gloat about how wrong you are, how woeful our list is and our mismanaged out cap has been. Rightly.

Thanks OP 👍
Poor you, is the MB that big and scary for you? Maybe stick to the safe ol’ Magpie board if people saying bad things and disagreeing about the direction of your footy club will hurt your feelings and scare you.
 

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Gysberts2Bate

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I’ve never been more convinced that a club would finish bottom 4 this year (coming from out of it) than I was of Collingwood this year. Never been more sure of a club winning a wooden spoon than I am of Collingwood next year. Finals in 2023 would be nothing short of a miracle.

Pies will bounce back soon enough because they’re Collingwood and it’s hard to keep them down, but the list is not in good shape. Think low expectations will actually help them out in the short term.
 

Godzke

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Not only a mostly unproven 22 but unproven coach
Good tickets on Craig McRae, but proof will be in the pudding
 

buzzbuzz

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Our 22 next year is most likely going to be something like:

FB: Maynard, Roughead, Noble
HB: Quaynor, Moore, Howe
C: J Daicos, Pendlebury, Crisp
HF: Sidebottom, Mihocek, W.Kelly
FF: Elliott, Cameron, Henry
R: Grundy, Adams, De Goey
INT: Macrae, Poulter, N.Daicos, Bianco

If we can replace Darcy Cameron with Sam Weideman and get Jack Gunston in to give Will Kelly time to be.. well, constantly injured, then we look better. People forget our forward line can look AMAZING when Jamie Elliott gets the right delivery, and a stable backline of the players listed, injury-free, is top-line.

I'd think it more likely we push to 8th-10th next year before we are forced to actually start rejuvenating the list and drop down again.
 

HBFlanker

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They can turn it around quickly as there is a high chance they will have picks 1 and 2 in the 2022 draft, if either JDG or Moore depart as free agents.
 

cakewalk06

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They can turn it around quickly as there is a high chance they will have picks 1 and 2 in the 2022 draft, if either JDG or Moore depart as free agents.

this makes little sense... you lose a mid-20s A-grader (moore, de goey), and gain, for example if we finish last in 2022, pick 2 as compensation and then you believe that that high draft pick is immediately better than Moore or De Goey?

Clearly, if one of Moore or De Goey left and was replaced by an 18-year-old possible young gun, it's not going to help us turn it around quickly. More likely we build a team around Moore and De Goey and then in a couple of years get a gun free agent in from a team near the bottom.. like Richmond did with Lynch. They paid nothing but salary for him and that is the way to play free agency.
 

daniher dynasty

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The Bombers clearly had a list this year that was capable of playing finals, I'm not sure why they were tipped for bottom 4
Well I don't know if you posted in the preseason ladder prediction thread so won't accuse you of re-writing history. But of those that did, I'd say fewer than 1% predicted Essendon to make finals and probably more than half predicted us to finish bottom 4. The fact that we did gives considerable support to the OP's contention. Given a good injury run , and the not unlikely chance of 2 or 3 of the other contenders for a lower top 8 finish being less fortunate, it's not unreasonable that Collingwood's best side could get up. Possible is of course different from probable. Supporters of Hawthorn, Fremantle, Carlton , St Kilda and of course Richmond can all make cases for their side to move into a finals position which have as much merit as those being put forward by Pies fans here. Coaching and luck with injuries will likely be just as if not more significant than looking at potential best 22s. The Pies certainly played some of their best footy after being freed from the Buckley system and the weight of any expectation. But Adelaide also finished 2020 well in that' nothing to lose' period. It doesnt always translate to progress when the heat goes back on at the start of a new season.
 

PieLebo87

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I’ve never been more convinced that a club would finish bottom 4 this year (coming from out of it) than I was of Collingwood this year. Never been more sure of a club winning a wooden spoon than I am of Collingwood next year. Finals in 2023 would be nothing short of a miracle.

Pies will bounce back soon enough because they’re Collingwood and it’s hard to keep them down, but the list is not in good shape. Think low expectations will actually help them out in the short term.
You’d make me rich if you fed me your bets with these calls.

ps: not being a smartarse. Reckon Pies to finish bottom 4 would’ve paid alright at the start of this season and it wouldn’t be bad odds for Pies to win the wooden spoon in 2022.
 

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