Club Focus Collingwood 2021 - Kreuger, Lipinski, Daicos, Murley, Harrison

[The 747]

Is that the worst outcome? Cats have 3x 2nds and I'd give up the whole draft hand for a kid who could go pick 1.

No but here's the thing. Say Daicos is every bit as good as he is being hyped to be - which remains to be seen - perhaps he becomes as good a player as Scott Pendlebury. Who will retire soon.

 

[citizen-erased]

If it pushes them back like 1 spot then it's still not an awful outcome. I'm jealous of their position. Last decent player we had come through FS/academy was Hawkins back when John Howard was PM

They’re getting a guaranteed potential pick 1 regardless of where they finish. This is not bad news for Collingwood as much as you desperately want it to be.

we had one of those. he plays for Brisbane now.
Admittedly he was very good though.

The issue for Collingwood is the bidding system now. Rather than costing you a pick in a round, it costs you points. Daicos on top of the hatchet job they did to the list in 2020 could set them back a fair bit.
A lot will come down to the kids they are brining through, but they're gonna want some hits out of them.

 

[Northernsoul74]

we had one of those. he plays for Brisbane now.
Admittedly he was very good though.

The issue for Collingwood is the bidding system now. Rather than costing you a pick in a round, it costs you points. Daicos on top of the hatchet job they did to the list in 2020 could set them back a fair bit.
A lot will come down to the kids they are brining through, but they're gonna want some hits out of them.

So are you suggesting they pass on Daicos just so they can draft a second rounder and a third rounder? Daicos and some later draft picks trumps their “normal” draft picks wherever they end up.

 

[citizen-erased]

So are you suggesting they pass on Daicos just so they can draft a second rounder and a third rounder? Daicos and some later draft picks trumps their “normal” draft picks wherever they end up.

not at all. you take the kid without doubt.
Just saying the list is gonna pay a price.

the timing isn't ideal for them.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

we had one of those. he plays for Brisbane now.
Admittedly he was very good though.

The issue for Collingwood is the bidding system now. Rather than costing you a pick in a round, it costs you points. Daicos on top of the hatchet job they did to the list in 2020 could set them back a fair bit.
A lot will come down to the kids they are brining through, but they're gonna want some hits out of them.

Yeah fair call

 

[Sweet Jesus]

How dramatic is the soundtrack in the opening package?

 

[Rusty Beam]

They’re getting a guaranteed potential pick 1 regardless of where they finish. This is not bad news for Collingwood as much as you desperately want it to be.

Yep.

Dib and Daicos sounds like an incredible draft to me.

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[Ants]

To be honest, if all they get out of this draft is daicos it'll still be a better draft than some have

Is that the worst outcome? Cats have 3x 2nds and I'd give up the whole draft hand for a kid who could go pick 1.

The issue isn't just the 2021 draft, but also the 2022 draft. Any deficit points get penalised against their first pick in the 2022 draft. So if they have a deficit of say 1200 points (3000 #1 bid discounted 20% minus the ~1100 mentioned above in the 2021draft hand) and Collingwood have pick #8 next year, it will be pushed back to a pick in the mid 40s.

So Daicos if bid on at #1 will likely wipe their 2021 draft hand and their 2022 first. If he's as good as they say, you do it. But at a time when you need to restructure the list, its going to remove a lot of flexibility. Its also another small after taking almost all smalls last year.

Edited for THE_GUN's pickup, thanks.

 

[THE_GUN]

The issue isn't just the 2020 draft, but also the 2021 draft. Any deficit points get penalised against their first pick in the 2021 draft. So if they have a deficit of say 1200 points (3000 #1 bid discounted 20% minus the ~1100 mentioned above in the 2020 draft hand) and Collingwood have pick #8 next year, it will be pushed back to a pick in the mid 40s.

So Daicos if bid on at #1 will likely wipe their 2020 draft hand and their 2021 first. If he's as good as they say, you do it. But at a time when you need to restructure the list, its going to remove a lot of flexibility. Its also another small after taking almost all smalls last year.

Maybe check the years in your post, You appear to be 1 year behind

 

[Lip Gallagher]

No but here's the thing. Say Daicos is every bit as good as he is being hyped to be - which remains to be seen - perhaps he becomes as good a player as Scott Pendlebury. Who will retire soon.

I reckon Pendles has 2 years after this one, i reckon him and Sidebottom will retire at the same time.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

I reckon Pendles has 2 years after this one, i reckon him and Sidebottom will retire at the same time.

Lol you're kidding right ? Pendlebury should retire at the end of the season. He is more cooked than a Christmas Goose. Plus The Pies can open up more valuable cap space. It's not as if you will challenge for the flag in the time alloted by you.

Even champions sometimes have to be tapped on the shoulder for the greater good of themselves and their footy club

 

[Lip Gallagher]

Lol you're kidding right ? Pendlebury should retire at the end of the season. He is more cooked than a Christmas Goose. Plus The Pies can open up more valuable cap space. It's not as if you will challenge for the flag in the time alloted by you.

Even champions sometimes have to be tapped on the shoulder for the greater good of themselves and their footy club

Pendles isn't the player he was but he's far from cooked lol.

Had very few injuries over the years and he's never relied on speed.

 

[THE_GUN]

Lol you're kidding right ? Pendlebury should retire at the end of the season. He is more cooked than a Christmas Goose. Plus The Pies can open up more valuable cap space. It's not as if you will challenge for the flag in the time alloted by you.

Even champions sometimes have to be tapped on the shoulder for the greater good of themselves and their footy club

Geelong considering offering him a 3 year deal

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

How dramatic is the soundtrack in the opening package?

Just your usual AFL 360 montage. I find it hilarious

The whole show works around a team being in "crisis" every week.

 

[loki04]

I reckon Pendles has 2 years after this one, i reckon him and Sidebottom will retire at the same time.

Pendles has 1 year after this left imo mainly to usher the new group in.

Not looking the player he was the game has caught up with him a bit.

 

[Sphynx]

The best way to get out of this hole would be to let De Goey walk as a free agent in 2022 and try and stay patient for another bottom 4 finish in 2022.

That would give them Daicos in 2021 + 2 x top 4 picks in 2022.

Buckley obvious would be a casualty of that though....

 

[barrackers]

The issue isn't just the 2021 draft, but also the 2022 draft. Any deficit points get penalised against their first pick in the 2022 draft. So if they have a deficit of say 1200 points (3000 #1 bid discounted 20% minus the ~1100 mentioned above in the 2021draft hand) and Collingwood have pick #8 next year, it will be pushed back to a pick in the mid 40s.

So Daicos if bid on at #1 will likely wipe their 2021 draft hand and their 2022 first. If he's as good as they say, you do it. But at a time when you need to restructure the list, its going to remove a lot of flexibility. Its also another small after taking almost all smalls last year.

Edited for THE_GUN's pickup, thanks.

Give it time; I'm sure there's a high quality player we're looking to offload to upgrade a third round pick.

Seriously though I'm expecting that we'll use our '22 first to trade back into this draft (whether it's for 2x second rounds or a first round pick) after the Daicos bid. It's not really possible to apply a deficit against a pick that doesn't exist yet.

 

[Ants]

The best way to get out of this hole would be to let De Goey walk as a free agent in 2022 and try and stay patient for another bottom 4 finish in 2022.

That would give them Daicos in 2021 + 2 x top 4 picks in 2022.

Buckley obvious would be a casualty of that though....

As I pointed out above, because the deficit impacts the 2022 year, your 2022 first rounder is going to be pushed back. So in the scenario above you would have only one 2022 top 4 pick.

...
Seriously though I'm expecting that we'll use our '22 first to trade back into this draft (whether it's for 2x second rounds or a first round pick) after the Daicos bid. It's not really possible to apply a deficit against a pick that doesn't exist yet.

I've been told, but don't know how accurate this is, that the deficit is applied as soon as it occurs. So once you match the Daicos bid, any deficit is applied to the 2022 first. This means it carries that deficit with it. So if you tried to trade it, the club doing so would be getting the 2022 Collingwood first PLUS the deficit, so know that its going to be a much later pick in effect. In which case nobody is going to trade anything good for it. As I said, I have not been able to confirm if this is correct or not.

The reason this has not happened to date is (I've been told) that there has only been one case where the pick the deficit to apply has been traded, and in that case the pick was traded before draft night. So it (a second rounder) was gone when the deficit was calculated. Which meant the deficit was applied to a third round rather than second round pick. That approach is fine if you're trading for a player, but can't get you back into the current draft without those points being used to match the Daicos bid.

So if you have the salary cap, the best move might be to trade the 2022 first for a player. No idea how it works if the deficit is greater than any second round pick could be though.

 

[HeadInTheSand]

Lol you're kidding right ? Pendlebury should retire at the end of the season. He is more cooked than a Christmas Goose. Plus The Pies can open up more valuable cap space.

Hallelulah. Thank heavens someone else can see that.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

They don't understand Collingwood's draft situation, right? Check out 2.35.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

The issue isn't just the 2021 draft, but also the 2022 draft. Any deficit points get penalised against their first pick in the 2022 draft. So if they have a deficit of say 1200 points (3000 #1 bid discounted 20% minus the ~1100 mentioned above in the 2021draft hand) and Collingwood have pick #8 next year, it will be pushed back to a pick in the mid 40s.

So Daicos if bid on at #1 will likely wipe their 2021 draft hand and their 2022 first. If he's as good as they say, you do it. But at a time when you need to restructure the list, its going to remove a lot of flexibility. Its also another small after taking almost all smalls last year.

Edited for THE_GUN's pickup, thanks.

So let's say a bid comes on Daicos at #2.

That pick is worth 2517 points. In order to match that bid, Collingwood would need to sacrifice picks totalling 2014 points - that's 80 per cent of the points of the bid pick.

Currently, they have the Bulldogs' second-rounder, their own third-rounder as well as Adelaide's third-rounder and Fremantle's third-rounder. Obviously ladder positions can change and those picks can move up and down accordingly but based on current ladder positions those picks are worth 1489 points.

So does that mean that Collingwood would have their 2022 first-rounder deducted to the tune of 500+ points?

If they had another average year in 2022 and ended up with pick 6, they would have 500+ wiped off and it would become pick 13. Or thereabouts.

Is that how it works? Is it compulsory that the earliest picks get downgraded or could they elect to make up the deficit with later picks?

 

[Northernsoul74]

So let's say a bid comes on Daicos at #2.

That pick is worth 2517 points. In order to match that bid, Collingwood would need to sacrifice picks totalling 2014 points - that's 80 per cent of the points of the bid pick.

Currently, they have the Bulldogs' second-rounder, their own third-rounder as well as Adelaide's third-rounder and Fremantle's third-rounder. Obviously ladder positions can change and those picks can move up and down accordingly but based on current ladder positions those picks are worth 1489 points.

So does that mean that Collingwood would have their 2022 first-rounder deducted to the tune of 500+ points?

If they had another average year in 2022 and ended up with pick 6, they would have 500+ wiped off and it would become pick 13. Or thereabouts.

Is that how it works? Is it compulsory that the earliest picks get downgraded or could they elect to make up the deficit with later picks?

They can also only use the picks that equate to the number of list spaces they have.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

They can also only use the picks that equate to the number of list spaces they have.

Sorry, what do you mean?

So in order for them to use four picks this year to start making up the points, they need to have four spots open on the list? Is that likely to be an obstacle? I guess it's not ideal to then have to fill those spots without any decent draft picks.

And I suppose it could lead to a greater deficit carrying over to 2022?

 

[THE_GUN]

Give it time; I'm sure there's a high quality player we're looking to offload to upgrade a third round pick.

Seriously though I'm expecting that we'll use our '22 first to trade back into this draft (whether it's for 2x second rounds or a first round pick) after the Daicos bid. It's not really possible to apply a deficit against a pick that doesn't exist yet.

I think Richmond is ideally placed to accommodate such a deal
We have the following picks
Richmond 1st rounder
Geelong 1st rounder
St kilda 2nd Rounder
Richmond 2nd rounder
Gold Coast 3rd Rounder
Richmond 3rd rounder

Richmond & Collingwood could do a Stoker like trade
Richmond 2021 2nd + gold coast 2021 3rd + 2022 1st for Collingwoods 2022 1st or something to that effect