Contenders and Pretenders 2019 ( edited - Page 32 current discussion ) Are Richmond now the team to beat?

[WCE Wizard]

No one said we would make the 8
No one predicted top 4
Hell no one predicted top 2
Everyone said Nic Nat was overrated
When he got injured everyone said we couldn’t win without him ..flip flop
Gaff gone ...were screwed now Everyone said
Hell most tipped lions in round 23 at the Gabba

Now we’re in home prelim

And we had brutal home and away draw so we have earned it. I can tell you that

Yup tigers are favourite to win it

But in a two horse race your horse has a chance

I love this man, will take it further

West Coast to win the spoon
West Coast to finish bottom 4
West Coast cant travel
West Coast cant play in Melbourne
Then Nic Nat is no good
But when Nic Nat when down we cant win without him
Now we cannot win without Gaff

I am happy with this the more they throw at us the better

 

[Coaster2012]

So with the exception of two of your 4 best players, and another very structurally important one? That is a pretty big exception. I also think you are massively underselling Priddis circa 2015, and perhaps rating him on Priddis 2017 once he was fully cooked. Nicnat, Sheppard, gaff and Priddis are nearly half the changes, so I still think it is questionable that your 2018 prelim team is better than your 2015 GF team.

Another way of looking at is:
Out: 3 All Australians
In: 0 all Australians

Sure, you've got some upgrades, but you are also missing some top shelf quality from the 2015 team.

I would be more confident with WC 2018 playing Tigers in the GF, then WC 2015 playing the Hawks of 2015 in a GF. Plus our coaching staff haven't really changed that much.

 

[hk89]

I would be more confident with WC 2018 playing Tigers in the GF, then WC 2015 playing the Hawks of 2015 in a GF. Plus our coaching staff haven't really changed that much.

Well I'd rather play Tigers 2018 team in a GF with our 2015 GF team than our 2018 team, so I think that says more about Hawthorn 2015 vs Tigers 2018 than WC 2015 vs WC 2018.

 

[hk89]

However Nicnat and gaff out hurts big time and beating Richmond is unlikely, the form isn't what it was earlier in the year.

Yes, that is my point. I think you could mount a reasonable argument that your full list might be better than 2015 (which is a surprise to me, I was one of the fools that thought you'd be terrible this year), but with Nicnat, gaff, and now Sheppard out, I think that case is much harder to argue if you are talking specifically about the team you'll have on the park for the prelim, especially when 2015 also had Priddis when he was close to his best. I think the prelim team is probably good enough to beat Melbourne or Hawthorn in Perth, but not at all convinced you can get over Tigers at the MCG with those outs, and in fact think all the remaining MCG tennants (Melbourne, Hawthorn, Pies) might have a better chance at that, despite none of those teams being able to get over Richmond so far this year at the MCG, and you guys beating them in Perth. The most likely GF is still Tigers vs WC, which I'm afraid is going to end up with back-to-back.

 

[hk89]

I'd say the input of several players has increased to cover those losses and has made us a more even team.
In: 3 all australians that hadn't been at all australian level by 2015 (2018 Hurn, 2017 Yeo, 2016-2018 McGovern)

That's a fair point, but only 1 of those has actually won all Australian selection (as opposed to being on the squad), and that is also countered by players on the list that have arguably gone backwards since 2015 due to age (Lecras being the obvious candidate). No doubt Hurn and Yeo have had great seasons, and Yeo has developed on well from 2015, but McGovern was already making the squad in 2015 too. Still think taking Nicnat, Gaff, Sheppard and an AA year priddis out of 2015 makes it hard for the ins and improvers to make up the gap given there are probably also players still on the park that have gone backwards since 2015.

 

[Scotland]

Who cares about 2015? A lifetime ago in footy terms.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Richmond look so far ahead of the pack right now. It’s hard to see any team beating them right now but I thought the same about Geelong in 2008 and Collingwood in 2011.

The rest of the teams are very hot and cold and I’m not sure how I should rate them. I’ve liked the way Collingwood have played this year and I think it can hold up during the finals. West Coast we’re very impressive when they had all their players available and I think they’re a decent chance if their talls come back and replicate their pre injury form.

I’m wary of Geelong and Sydney because I don’t think they’re as good as they’ve been in the previous two years and they were both found out during the finals of those years.

Richmond’s to lose at this stage

I stand by this. Still Richmond’s to lose and not surprised Geelong and Sydney exited meekly, think their game styles are outdated. Would’ve had Melbourne as pretenders when I wrote this, think I was wrong on them. Still tough from here and they might go out this week still, but I’d say they deserve to be more than pretenders

 

[Engimal v3]

I love this man, will take it further
West Coast to win the spoon

Did anyone say this? I thought it was in everyone's mind that it was a two way race between the Suns and North to win it.

 

[TigerTime88]

That's not entirely true, there's a whole thread on the game next week on our board, Melbourne the only big win? What about halting Essendon after a 6 game streak or a full strength Adelaide on their home deck or an in form North by 11 goals or a desperate Port by 51?

Oh that's right they weren't in the 8 at the time so I guess that means that form means zero.

Like I said....one top 8 team all year.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Like I said....one top 8 team all year.

OK enjoy your simplistic view, so if we or the dees win the whole thing we can moot the flag because we only beat 1 top 8 team all year.

 

[Coaster2012]

Yes, that is my point. I think you could mount a reasonable argument that your full list might be better than 2015 (which is a surprise to me, I was one of the fools that thought you'd be terrible this year), but with Nicnat, gaff, and now Sheppard out, I think that case is much harder to argue if you are talking specifically about the team you'll have on the park for the prelim, especially when 2015 also had Priddis when he was close to his best. I think the prelim team is probably good enough to beat Melbourne or Hawthorn in Perth, but not at all convinced you can get over Tigers at the MCG with those outs, and in fact think all the remaining MCG tennants (Melbourne, Hawthorn, Pies) might have a better chance at that, despite none of those teams being able to get over Richmond so far this year at the MCG, and you guys beating them in Perth. The most likely GF is still Tigers vs WC, which I'm afraid is going to end up with back-to-back.

Pies and Melbourne play the same style of footy as Richmond and you can't beat Richmond at their own game, which is why imo neither will get close to beating them on GF day, especially with the lesser breaks. Eagles play a different style with their kicking game and it can nullify Richmonds game, essentially playing keep me off for 4 quarters and capitalizing on our forward 50 strength. This is what happened in Perth earlier in the year. Eagles took the Tigers game apart with their kicking skills and Tigers couldn't get near it. You can't apply pressure to a player who has taken the mark. The issue is, if it crumbles, it will crumble hard, but if it doesn't, WC has the best chance to beat them on GF day.

 

[hk89]

Pies and Melbourne play the same style of footy as Richmond and you can't beat Richmond at their own game, which is why imo neither will get close to beating them on GF day, especially with the lesser breaks. Eagles play a different style with their kicking game and it can nullify Richmonds game, essentially playing keep me off for 4 quarters and capitalizing on our forward 50 strength. This is what happened in Perth earlier in the year. Eagles took the Tigers game apart with their kicking skills and Tigers couldn't get near it. You can't apply pressure to a player who has taken the mark. The issue is, if it crumbles, it will crumble hard, but if it doesn't, WC has the best chance to beat them on GF day.

You've pretty much described a large portion of Hawthorn's game plan too, except at the moment you have two very strong KPF's, and we don't, we admittedly makes a big difference (Roughy beyond his best, Gunston plays more like a forward flanker, and the tall forward options not of Kennedy and Darling's quality). You also don't have as many inexperienced players as we do , 3 of which tended to be weak links last Thursday.

Richmond broke us down in the end, but really we never got a chance to get our kicking game plan working at any stage of the game. It was our own tackle pressure on them that kept us in it in the first half, not an ability to execute our kicking game plan. I'm actually a bit surprised you were able to manage it yourselves last time, as I'd have thought keepings off would work slightly less well on optus than the G (optus is a bit fatter than the subi, but still not G like - more like Etihad with a bit more length). I agree it is something that should work in theory, but it was a strategy that proved beyond us - perhaps the newbies just don't have the experience and/or skill to make it work for us under Richmond like pressure (wet night obviously didn't help either). You are missing NicNat, Gaff and Sheppard from that earlier win in the season too. Remember that Hardwick was already pretty good at breaking down the keepings off game plan against a full strength 3-peating Hawthorn, and we definitely had the cattle and the forwards to execute the game plan really well back then.

I tend to agree it is hard to beat them at their own game, but Pies did ok for the first 3 quarters in both their games, and got run down in the final quarters with players down on the bench (as pointed out earlier by a Pies poster). We also were doing ok when we were matching their tackling pressure with a bit extra on top.

I'll be delighted if you can get over them on GF day, but I'm pretty dubious at this stage.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

 

[eaglespremiers]

Did anyone say this? I thought it was in everyone's mind that it was a two way race between the Suns and North to win it.

Well....

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/ea...inals-in-2018-says-robert-walls-ng-b88779554z

 

[Benny78]

The only thing Geelong are good at these days is talking themselves up, overrating their own players and winning meaningless individual awards. They haven't been close to making a Grand Final since 2013. Blown out of the water in the first quarter of successive Prelim Finals (2016, 2017) and deestroyed by Melbourne in the 1st quarter on Friday night.

I think it's time that Geelong supporters like yourself woke up, smelled the coffee and stopped living on past glories.

While our list is inconsistent. It's still potentially the best in the comp. You forget the comp is currently s**t and your team only has about 8 or so players that would make the 22 of the top sides.

If the s**t coach brings his H&A form into finals. We win the flag. And since he makes the finals every year he's a better chance of making it eventually than Hawthorn. Who don't have the cattle.

 

[mehow2g]

Yes, that is my point. I think you could mount a reasonable argument that your full list might be better than 2015 (which is a surprise to me, I was one of the fools that thought you'd be terrible this year), but with Nicnat, gaff, and now Sheppard out, I think that case is much harder to argue if you are talking specifically about the team you'll have on the park for the prelim, especially when 2015 also had Priddis when he was close to his best. I think the prelim team is probably good enough to beat Melbourne or Hawthorn in Perth, but not at all convinced you can get over Tigers at the MCG with those outs, and in fact think all the remaining MCG tennants (Melbourne, Hawthorn, Pies) might have a better chance at that, despite none of those teams being able to get over Richmond so far this year at the MCG, and you guys beating them in Perth. The most likely GF is still Tigers vs WC, which I'm afraid is going to end up with back-to-back.

With all those injuries yeah Eagle's will have to play out of their skin which is still possible just like your mob did in 2008, unlikely though.. Eagles were never going to win in 2015 it's such a shame with the injuries and suspension that they can get there again just to lose.. Hurts more to honest.

 

[hk89]

Grand final played at the MCG though, where the results against each other look like this:
Tigers 5-0 145%
WC 1-0 152%
Hawks 2-2 118%
GWS 1-1 84%
Melbourne 1-3 72%
Pies 1-5 81%

It is criminal that WC only got to play twice at the G for the year, especially when they had their game against MCG tenant Hawthorn played at Etihad. While they can say they haven't lost there this year, they very nearly got beaten by Carlton, and clearly Pies have struggled to beat top teams at the G, so that scalp is also of questionable value. Simply can't see WC getting the job done against Richmond at the G with 3 important outs from the team that rolled Tigers at Optus.


If you assume Tigers are the team to beat, here is everyone elses record against them at the G:
WC 0-0 -
GWS 0-0 -
Hawks 0-2 78%
Pies 0-2 67%
Demons 0-1 55%

There is a reason Tigers are massive favourites. I think there is probably less of a reason why Hawthorn are massively last in the betting, and if they are still paying 21.0 to win the GF, that is probably reasonable value, with only 3 more wins required (but not outstanding value given they still have a tough road into the GF having to travel through Perth if they are lucky enough to get up against a momentum surfing Melbourne, and the odds are clearly reflecting that). I suspect Hawthorn will still be the least favoured by punters even if they beat Melbourne given the Perth factor (and travel back for the GF if they fluke a win).

 

[hk89]

If the s**t coach brings his H&A form into finals. We win the flag. And since he makes the finals every year he's a better chance of making it eventually than Hawthorn. Who don't have the cattle.

Is this the H&A form that included two losses to Hawthorn, one of them quite close to finals, and other against the flag favourite, also quite close to finals? Is this the H&A form you think would have had you winning the flag had it been taken into finals? Or did you mean the H&A form that had you smashing the likes of GC and Dockers down in Sleepy Hollow? Geelong's cattle need to be put out to pasture.

 

[MagicGnome97]

First time we played Richmond this year we just got overran in the last but the second time I think we would've won if we didn't have those key injuries to tall defenders. IIRC we lost Howe early on and then Scharenberg to a serious injury, Scharenberg was the one that really was one too much. We were well and truly in the game and pretty much the moment he was injured our backline basically collapsed, and hence Richmond won the game.

Losing De Goey right before the game hurt too.

We have to beat GWS first, I hope we can do it. But if we do, I'm confident we have it in us to improve again against Richmond and this time beat them in the last instead of running out of gas or able-bodied defenders.

The tigers are very good atm but they are far from unbeatable, despite their fantastic recent record at the MCG. I think its about time that that run ends. I really bloody hope we can beat GWS. The hype for a Collingwood vs Richmond prelim would be...OFF THE CHARTS!!!

 

[hk89]

The tigers are very good atm but they are far from unbeatable, despite their fantastic recent record at the MCG. I think its about time that that run ends. I really bloody hope we can beat GWS. The hype for a Collingwood vs Richmond prelim would be...OFF THE CHARTS!!!

Imagine if it was a Tigers vs Pies GF! I can't believe some people still believe the AFL engineer results to suit them when you look at what actually unfolds. If they were to rig anything it would have been to get Pies and Tigers to avoid each other until the GF. On the other hand the conspiracy believers probably think the AFL would love their newest franchise team to appear in a GF - a theory we'll no doubt be hearing all about if Pies don't win their SF. Barracking for Pies in that one.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Imagine if it was a Tigers vs Pies GF! I can't believe some people still believe the AFL engineer results to suit them when you look at what actually unfolds. If they were to rig anything it would have been to get Pies and Tigers to avoid each other until the GF. On the other hand the conspiracy believers probably think the AFL would love their newest franchise team to appear in a GF - a theory we'll no doubt be hearing all about if Pies don't win their SF. Barracking for Pies in that one.

I agree it's nonsense the AFL tries to engineer results. Ut's ckearly in the games interest fir as many fans of as many clubs as possible to believe they're a chance at this time lf the year.

They wint be much focussed on us. With the club up and running successfully our facilities and growth are in good shape, and competitive on the field.
They've got bigger problems to worry about.

 

[hk89]

I agree it's nonsense the AFL tries to engineer results. Ut's ckearly in the games interest fir as many fans of as many clubs as possible to believe they're a chance at this time lf the year.

They wint be much focussed on us. With the club up and running successfully our facilities and growth are in good shape, and competitive on the field.
They've got bigger problems to worry about.

For TV rights reasons I think they'd still like to see one of the two Sydney sides doing well. At the end of the day though, the AFL has nothing if they can't protect the integrity of the game, and the thought that they'd try to to actively intervene in pushing a certain result on game day is clearly ridiculous. They have a bunch of accepted pulleys and levers they can twiddle to achieve their longer term goals without resorting to the silly match fixing some tin-foil folks accuse them of. Scheduling decisions are perhaps a little more suspicious, but the thought they'd direct umpires to favour a team to get a certain result is simply absurd.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Their prize for beating us is to travel West to play a team that while they beat in their previous meeting there, managed to score 91 points against them without Darling and Kennedy playing.

And Melbourne were at full strength?

Give yourself an uppercut

 

[dave123]

Yes, that is my point. I think you could mount a reasonable argument that your full list might be better than 2015 (which is a surprise to me, I was one of the fools that thought you'd be terrible this year), but with Nicnat, gaff, and now Sheppard out, I think that case is much harder to argue if you are talking specifically about the team you'll have on the park for the prelim, especially when 2015 also had Priddis when he was close to his best. I think the prelim team is probably good enough to beat Melbourne or Hawthorn in Perth, but not at all convinced you can get over Tigers at the MCG with those outs, and in fact think all the remaining MCG tennants (Melbourne, Hawthorn, Pies) might have a better chance at that, despite none of those teams being able to get over Richmond so far this year at the MCG, and you guys beating them in Perth. The most likely GF is still Tigers vs WC, which I'm afraid is going to end up with back-to-back.

When Kennedy and Jack Darling play we are 11-0

Yup

I like those stats

To put it simply that’s a six goal difference ...they both average close to 3 goals each

When the game was on the line Saturday ......who stepped up ..jk and jd

 

[dave123]

First time we played Richmond this year we just got overran in the last but the second time I think we would've won if we didn't have those key injuries to tall defenders. IIRC we lost Howe early on and then Scharenberg to a serious injury, Scharenberg was the one that really was one too much. We were well and truly in the game and pretty much the moment he was injured our backline basically collapsed, and hence Richmond won the game.

Losing De Goey right before the game hurt too.

We have to beat GWS first, I hope we can do it. But if we do, I'm confident we have it in us to improve again against Richmond and this time beat them in the last instead of running out of gas or able-bodied defenders.

The tigers are very good atm but they are far from unbeatable, despite their fantastic recent record at the MCG. I think its about time that that run ends. I really bloody hope we can beat GWS. The hype for a Collingwood vs Richmond prelim would be...OFF THE CHARTS!!!

Can’t happen now

Off the charts ....all grand finals are off the charts

I think you’ll beat gws ...Kelly massive loss

And I do think you can trouble Richmond if everything goes right