Contenders and Pretenders 2019 ( edited - Page 32 current discussion )

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harrythetiger

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Think people have been far too quick to write off the Tigers. They'll have Dusty Cotch and Reiwoldt back in 2-3 with a bit of luck. If they can grind out one or two wins against Sydney Port or Melbourne it's still early enough to turn it around.
Glad someone else thinks that. It’s a bit of blind optimism but it’s comforting to know that it’s *only* Rance we need to cover for the whole year. Plus the last time we played GWS and Collingwood, we had those players and STILL lost. Ditto for port this week. We might not actually be losing much ground on our 2018 campaign, just all our tough games are bunched up.
We have to be 3-3 or at absolute worst 2-4. 1-5 and we might make finals, but we’ll have to spend too many petrol tickets to get there.
 

rogiebear93

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I don't think anyone can honestly rate contenders and pretenders after only three rounds of a season where there have been such substantial rule changes. Like many of the coaches have said, no one is 100% sure if the strategies they have planned out will work yet.

Interesting to keep in mind that in 2018, after Round 3:

Port were 1st
Adelaide were 3rd
West Coast were 5th
Gold Coast were 6th
Richmond were 9th
Collingwood were 14th

Two of the prelim finalists weren't even in the 8 at that point, and two teams that were top 4 didn't even make finals.
 

Do the Dew

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Glad someone else thinks that. It’s a bit of blind optimism but it’s comforting to know that it’s *only* Rance we need to cover for the whole year. Plus the last time we played GWS and Collingwood, we had those players and STILL lost. Ditto for port this week. We might not actually be losing much ground on our 2018 campaign, just all our tough games are bunched up.
We have to be 3-3 or at absolute worst 2-4. 1-5 and we might make finals, but we’ll have to spend too many petrol tickets to get there.
Just need to stick it out and grind through the first half of the season, then come home strong. Crazy to think we don't get a true home game until round 12 though.
 

Mningasimisonda

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Just need to stick it out and grind through the first half of the season, then come home strong. Crazy to think we don't get a true home game until round 12 though.
I think Tigers will do okay.

The only issues I see are injuries, and perhaps that their game plan might not work as well in the current context (with new rules plus injuries).

There seems more players back preventing the fast break through the zone and there also seems to be more open space to move the ball. That might work against their style of prioritising high pressure and fast ball movement over possession and precision hitting of targets.
 

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harrythetiger

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Just need to stick it out and grind through the first half of the season, then come home strong. Crazy to think we don't get a true home game until round 12 though.
Then they come in spades. It’s all swings and roundabouts, comes out roughly even, but it’s an important factor to keep in mind.
 

Do the Dew

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Then they come in spades. It’s all swings and roundabouts, comes out roughly even, but it’s an important factor to keep in mind.
Sort of, we get 5 home games, 8 away, and 9 neutral. Thankfully a good chunk of the home and neutral are in the last 7 -8 rounds


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

dean33

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Did the ladder predictor and had us losing the next 2 games v port and Sydney(before dusty ban was reduced) and still had us making top 4. If we can get some players back minus rance I still think we’re one of the better teams in the comp. I’d hold fire on the tigers.
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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Did the ladder predictor and had us losing the next 2 games v port and Sydney(before dusty ban was reduced) and still had us making top 4. If we can get some players back minus rance I still think we’re one of the better teams in the comp. I’d hold fire on the tigers.
It's way too early to write anyone off after three rounds obviously. The problem for the Tigers is there are worrying signs the issues aren't being well handled by the club.

I completely get that having Rance, Crimes and Houli missing with no time to adjust made it inevitable our forwards would have a good day.

That doesn't excuse Dusty and Dimma's petulant display though.
 

dean33

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It's way too early to write anyone off after three rounds obviously. The problem for the Tigers is there are worrying signs the issues aren't being well handled by the club.

I completely get that having Rance, Crimes and Houli missing with no time to adjust made it inevitable our forwards would have a good day.

That doesn't excuse Dusty and Dimma's petulant display though.
Coaches say all sorts of things in the heat of the after match press conference, I wouldn’t read too much into it. We are one of the most professionally run clubs. As for dusty, he’s had a poor start and was very frustrated last weekend, he’ll be right.
 

hk89

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Did the ladder predictor and had us losing the next 2 games v port and Sydney(before dusty ban was reduced) and still had us making top 4. If we can get some players back minus rance I still think we’re one of the better teams in the comp. I’d hold fire on the tigers.
Last year, you needed 15 wins to make the top 4. If you lose the next two as you've predicted, then that's a 1-4 start, and means you'd only lose 3 more games for the season to get to 15. 2017 you only needed 14 wins, but 14, 15 and 16 you needed 16 wins, so conceivable you might be able to lose only 2 more games.

With Riewoldt listed as 3 weeks away, and Cotchin 2-3, there is a chance you'll be playing Melbourne in 3 games time with those two either underdone or missing - on top of Rance -, so I think there is a good chance you'll be 1-5 by then, with only 1 or 2 more losses up your sleeve for the season. You've got double ups against GWS and Pies, neither of which will be easy games, even if they are both at the G. Richmond of last year might be a chance to finish strongly enough to make the top 4, but without Rance, and with injured players having to return to full match fitness, I can't see it happening. I think you'll need to beat Sydney to be even half a chance. With Martin now playing, if he can get some form back, it might be enough for you to get over the line , especially given Sydney have their own injury/fitness issues.
 
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Think people have been far too quick to write off the Tigers. They'll have Dusty Cotch and Reiwoldt back in 2-3 with a bit of luck. If they can grind out one or two wins against Sydney Port or Melbourne it's still early enough to turn it around.
It's one thing to bounce back and make the 8, but without Rance actually win the Grand Final when you have teams like West Coast and Collingwood lying around (who have the wood over them)? Highly unlikely. This is the problem with finals series. Although it's great to keep teams in contention with a shot, at the end of the day it's usually only the top teams of the year who ever win it anyway.
 

Macpotata

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Thread starter #822
I'm glad the Dees got up last night. I thought they would tbh, and the way they won is exactly how I it envisioned it. I think they play a great style of football and the league is better when they're up and about. I hope they go on and set their season up now, and they have every chance with St.kilda looming next week.

The Dees last win against the Swans at the SCG was back in 2006 in round 4 when they both had 1-3 records funnily enough. Which is where they are right now. Going into round 3 Geelong, WCE, Freo, Hawthorn, and the Western Bulldogs were all in the top 8, which is where they sit atm. The Swans and Dees were both outside the 8 but ended up making it.

West Coast would like these stats.
 

Wallaby

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I don't think anyone can honestly rate contenders and pretenders after only three rounds of a season where there have been such substantial rule changes. Like many of the coaches have said, no one is 100% sure if the strategies they have planned out will work yet.

Interesting to keep in mind that in 2018, after Round 3:

Port were 1st
Adelaide were 3rd
West Coast were 5th
Gold Coast were 6th
Richmond were 9th
Collingwood were 14th

Two of the prelim finalists weren't even in the 8 at that point, and two teams that were top 4 didn't even make finals.
Take your common sense out of here. This is Big footy.
 

dean33

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Last year, you needed 15 wins to make the top 4. If you lose the next two as you've predicted, then that's a 1-4 start, and means you'd only lose 3 more games for the season to get to 15. 2017 you only needed 14 wins, but 14, 15 and 16 you needed 16 wins, so conceivable you might be able to lose only 2 more games.

With Riewoldt listed as 3 weeks away, and Cotchin 2-3, there is a chance you'll be playing Melbourne in 3 games time with those two either underdone or missing - on top of Rance -, so I think there is a good chance you'll be 1-5 by then, with only 1 or 2 more losses up your sleeve for the season. You've got double ups against GWS and Pies, neither of which will be easy games, even if they are both at the G. Richmond of last year might be a chance to finish strongly enough to make the top 4, but without Rance, and with injured players having to return to full match fitness, I can't see it happening. I think you'll need to beat Sydney to be even half a chance. With Martin now playing, if he can get some form back, it might be enough for you to get over the line , especially given Sydney have their own injury/fitness issues.
We’ll know by Anzac Day if we are still a chance or not. Agree if we lose the next 3 top 4 is closed and just making the 8 will be a task. Saying that we made the 8 after being 3-10 and winning our last 9 games in 2014 so you never know.
 

MadMundy

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If we have to go on current form then it's

Contenders:
West Coast
Geelong
GWS

Pretenders
Melbourne
Essendon
Richmond

But as a few of the kind chaps above me have said, it's only Round 3. A lot can change in 20 weeks. Do I think Richmond will struggle without key players? No doubt. Do I think they should be ruled out of finals? Not a chance in hell. Teams have comeback from worse, as well as teams falling from worse.
 
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