Analysis Contested Possessions

Marcel Proust

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Richmond Statistic Carlton
151 Contested Possessions 168

Melbourne Statistic Richmond
126 Contested Possessions 124

Collingwood Statistic Richmond
150 Contested Possessions 142

Richmond Statistic GWS
129 Contested Possessions 154



Problem or no problem?


edit: As Tiger71 points out i get Richmond are pretty good when the ball spills out and some of it is due to game-style and plan. Yet I dont think Dimma will be happy with being the 2nd worse contested possession side in the AfL in 2019? All well and good vs poo teams like Carlton but will the lack of ball winning be a problem in finals? were the games might tighten up
 
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Marcel Proust

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in the sake of fairness:

Lel

You posted the same thing in the Ellis thread, do you even watch our games? We smashed them in first possession post clearance which fed our outside run,again a stat we smashed them which again lead to us smashing them in meters gained.

You would think you would know how we play?
 

Muddiemoose

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Richmond Statistic Carlton
151 Contested Possessions 168

Melbourne Statistic Richmond
126 Contested Possessions 124

Collingwood Statistic Richmond
150 Contested Possessions 142

Richmond Statistic GWS
129 Contested Possessions 154



Problem or no problem?
Hard to say
We have won all 3 of the games so I guess it’s better to win the score line than the cp count and we have had some of our best contested players out
 

clark1980

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we seem to be setting up with Grimes playing as a goalie type player. oppositions aren't matching him up yet, so they have an extra player at the coalface. that would be the reason for our lower contested possessions. as long as its not that huge of a difference and we are pressuring them into rushed kicks, our intercept marking will be our advantage. its where we are creating our surge forward, our strength. the problem comes if the entries into the forward line aren't pressured and they can pinpoint their way thru our defence as has happened in games against the better teams. also it feels as though we are breaking even with centre clearances the last block of games which is important.
 

Marcel Proust

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we seem to be setting up with Grimes playing as a goalie type player. oppositions aren't matching him up yet, so they have an extra player at the coalface. that would be the reason for our lower contested possessions. as long as its not that huge of a difference and we are pressuring them into rushed kicks, our intercept marking will be our advantage. its where we are creating our surge forward, our strength. the problem comes if the entries into the forward line aren't pressured and the can pinpoint their way thru our defence as has happened in games against the better teams. also it feels as though we are breaking even with centre clearances the last block of games which is important.
Its a very tough ask for Vlastuin and Grimes to play at such a high level every game.

Chances are they will break at some stage
 

tony__montana

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I often look at stats throughout the game and against carlton, coll and GWS we were virtually even at halftime (against GWS 3/4 time we were down 4). I reckon we're taking the foot off the pedal slightly in the second half. Yesterday in one qtr(the 3rd) we were down 24 CP's! and brought it back a little in the last. Im not too worried about it bc overall our groundball get game is solid enough for what we do.
 

Phar Ace

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we seem to be setting up with Grimes playing as a goalie type player. oppositions aren't matching him up yet, so they have an extra player at the coalface. that would be the reason for our lower contested possessions. as long as its not that huge of a difference and we are pressuring them into rushed kicks, our intercept marking will be our advantage. its where we are creating our surge forward, our strength. the problem comes if the entries into the forward line aren't pressured and they can pinpoint their way thru our defence as has happened in games against the better teams. also it feels as though we are breaking even with centre clearances the last block of games which is important.
Gotta look at who we've been rolling through stoppages too though. Had Bolton, Baker, Rioli at times, even Castagna and Butler sometimes. Graham hadn't really been in much form until this week, Edwards was Ok when in there. Much of the work has been up to Martin, Prestia and Lambert. Add that to our Rucks of Soldo, Chol and Balta for much of the year. I actually think our stoppage work is getting better because of all of that, and will stand us in good stead, unlike previous years. I suspect the longer term trend is on the up for clearances, maybe even contested possessions too, having battled though a bit of a trough. Could be wrong but that's how it feels without checking numbers.
 

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Marcel Proust

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West Coast 18th hmmm, Melbourne 5th hmmm
Thats a fair point - Melbourne are very good inside; Viney, Oliver, Brayshaw. CP isnt the dees issue. Yet the Cats are rated 3rd. And Geelong pretty much put the que in the rack since round 10

At the end of the day its about kicking the pigskin into the bigger sticks but getting your hands on it is still important.

I have a lot of trust in Grimes, Vlastuin, Astbury but its a big ask to win a flag being under the pump that much
 
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Tiger Toffee

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Thats a fair point - Melbourne are very good inside; Viney, Oliver, Brayshaw. CP isnt the dees issue. Yet the Cats are rated 3rd. And Geelong pretty much put the que in the rack since round 10

At the end of the day its about kicking the pigskin into the bigger sticks but getting your hands on it is still important.

I have a lot of trust in Grimes, Vlastuin, Astbury but its a big ask to win a flag being under the pump that much
But we have been more outside this year and that can probably be down to who we have had out on the ground. Nothing to be concerned about IMO.

8th for tackles and 2nd for inside 50's

Also i don't think knock on's get classed as CP whereas if we grab the ball it would, so that also has to be taken into account when judging our CP numbers.
 

RunningBounce

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I'll add a couple of things. Apologies to everyone who has read me posting this before. Does feel a bit like repeating myself.

The reason contested possessions are widely ignored is it's a blunt measure. Pick up the ball near the opposition = contested possession. You can pick up the ball in a pack until the cows come home, but if you don't get it to a teammate, or gain some metres, it doesn't count towards the scoreboard. Cripps last week was a textbook example of how CP is an empty number that doesn't impact the result. 21 CPs and he might as well not played.

Even a free kick = contested possession (I don't understand why, but they do count a free kick for as a contested possession, apparently). Our free kick differential explains most of our CP differential.

Champion Data and most clubs have started to break down the CPs into other, more meaningful categories. Tiger71 has picked up on coaches, media, etc talking about "first possession post clearance". This seems like the more meaningful number. Once the ball is clear of congestion, the next disposal is the one that counts towards the result. Unfortunately, this stat is not available to the general public.

IMO, we set up to lose the contest, but get the first disposal on the outside, and given the last 3 seasons, I'd say it works for us.

But CPs aren't useless. I reckon they give a sense of how much a team is cracking in, if you look at them along with tackles. Losing the CPs? No worries. That just means the opposition are picking the ball up first. If that's happening, we should be winning the tackle count, causing the ball to 1) stay in the pack or 2) spill loose to where our players are set up. Losing both CP and tackle count? Hmm, might indicate that not enough players are actually getting in and under.
 

JAKLAUGHING

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The phrase was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
 

Dr Tigris

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The phrase was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
The original was "lies, damn lies, and expert opinion". Morphed to statistics - as I guess experts use stats to mislead.
 

Dr Tigris

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CPs are a measure of how you get your hands on the ball when the opposition is right there too. When we get smashed we lose contested possession, but also they get the ball out cleanly. Often we lose contested possession, but control the play through our positioning and pressure. in that case we often create the situation where they win the contested ball, but fumble the ball / miss their target and we're off. In that case we plan to not so much not get contested ball, but to primarily set up to win the contested situation.

I think this is what gets missed. Some teams, Demons, aim to win contested ball. But they aren't really able to do much with it. Us, and teams like WC & Lions, set up to exploit contested situations. Geelong plays a slower game that relies on getting those contested balls, and then using skills and structure to score. The best teams focus on the overall situation (contested play) and not the instance (individual ball gets). You can lose individual contests but set up to win the overall situation.
 

JAKLAUGHING

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CPs are a measure of how you get your hands on the ball when the opposition is right there too. When we get smashed we lose contested possession, but also they get the ball out cleanly. Often we lose contested possession, but control the play through our positioning and pressure. in that case we often create the situation where they win the contested ball, but fumble the ball / miss their target and we're off. In that case we plan to not so much not get contested ball, but to primarily set up to win the contested situation.

I think this is what gets missed. Some teams, Demons, aim to win contested ball. But they aren't really able to do much with it. Us, and teams like WC & Lions, set up to exploit contested situations. Geelong plays a slower game that relies on getting those contested balls, and then using skills and structure to score. The best teams focus on the overall situation (contested play) and not the instance (individual ball gets). You can lose individual contests but set up to win the overall situation.
It's a hard one to get your head around...You can lose individual contests but set up to win the overall situation...

 

_RT_

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Our game plan revolves around creating pressure on the opposition and forcing them into dirty clearances and turnovers from which we can then counter attack.

Once we've got the turnover our slick hands and wave of runners means not many of our possessions end up being contested. Another thing is that when the ball is in dispute on the ground we rarely take possession or lock the ball in which stops repeated contested possessions being gained.

Instead it is knocked out of the congestion so that a player just outside the contest gains possession and starts the chain of quick ball movement.
 

Ralll

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It's certainly not ideal to lose CP's, and I'm sure we would rather just win them and not need the backup plan of pressuring them into a turnover, but it just shows that you don't necessarily need to win them to win the game.
If our pressure is off and they're delivering clean ball I50 then it will quickly become a problem imo.
 

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