List Mgmt. Contracts. Trades. Draft. 2021 Edition

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Keys

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Schtinker

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Where does everyone see us ending up next year. Maybe offer them next years 3rd, could be better could be worse but keeps our picks for this year. I think having the versatility of SPS in the team could give our mids a bit more of a chop out during the game. Is he a better prospect than Langdon?
 

pantskyle

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I mean the situation suggests we should be low-balling or paying what we perceive to be fair value in this exact situation.

I'd be annoyed if we straight up gave away a second rounder, heck even the 3rd rounder is of fair value and tradition dictates that we play the trading game fairly.
 

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Alesana

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Recently, Trent Rivers was drafted with Pick 32. Shannon Neale 32, Tyler Brockman 46, Chad Warner 39, Vandermeer 37.
For a bit of perspective from the last two drafts; Seamus Mitchell 29, Finn Maguinness 29, Charlie Comben 31, Liam McMahon 31, Brock Smith 33, Fraser Rosman 34, Flynn Perez 35, Connor Downie 35, Nick Bryan 38, Josh Eyre 39, Jay Rantall 40, Francis Evans 41, Jack Carrol 41, Ronin O'Connor 42, Phoenix Spicer 42, Noah Cumberland 43, Harry Sharp 43, Will Martyn 44.

I'd have no issue trading 35 for SPS instead of trying to find a diamond in the rough
 

Happy Mastenator

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My god, we’re savages. Fancy starting with a low offer
A truism I learnt in my career is that there's nothing worse that the other side accepting your first offer. Always start lower than prepared to go, and more importantly, lower than you think the other side values something.
 

ziad

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For a bit of perspective from the last two drafts; Seamus Mitchell 29, Finn Maguinness 29, Charlie Comben 31, Liam McMahon 31, Brock Smith 33, Fraser Rosman 34, Flynn Perez 35, Connor Downie 35, Nick Bryan 38, Josh Eyre 39, Jay Rantall 40, Francis Evans 41, Jack Carrol 41, Ronin O'Connor 42, Phoenix Spicer 42, Noah Cumberland 43, Harry Sharp 43, Will Martyn 44.

I'd have no issue trading 35 for SPS instead of trying to find a diamond in the rough
ROE says take SPS. All else is a much bigger gamble.
 

eagles rule

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Pick 49 for SPS sounds fair if we compare it to Josh Hill trade ..Out of the best 25 team and out of contract offer..
 

Forward Press

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For a bit of perspective from the last two drafts; Seamus Mitchell 29, Finn Maguinness 29, Charlie Comben 31, Liam McMahon 31, Brock Smith 33, Fraser Rosman 34, Flynn Perez 35, Connor Downie 35, Nick Bryan 38, Josh Eyre 39, Jay Rantall 40, Francis Evans 41, Jack Carrol 41, Ronin O'Connor 42, Phoenix Spicer 42, Noah Cumberland 43, Harry Sharp 43, Will Martyn 44.

I'd have no issue trading 35 for SPS instead of trying to find a diamond in the rough
It's really easy to list the stars picked up with late picks in the draft - for good reason, because the list of duds are far longer.

Here are some previous pick 35s...

2000 - Allan Murray 16 games
2001 - Jarred Wright 0 games
2002 - Scott Bassett 1 game
2003 - Brent Hall 1 game
2004 - Fabian Deluca 11 games
2005 - Stephen Owen 0 games
2006 - Mark Austin 44 games
2007 - Sam Reid 108 games
2008 - Jamie Bennell 87 games
2009 - David Astbury 155 games
2010 - Ben Newton 17 games
2011 - Daniel Markworth 0 games
2012 - Tom Temay 0 games
2013 - Toby Nankervis 98 games
2014 - Harrison Wigg 0 games
2015 - Marcus Adams 55 games
2016 - Callum Brown (f-s) 63 games
2017 - Oscar Clavarino 5 games
2018 - Bailey Williams 9 games
2019 - Flynn Perez 3 games

So in that 20 year period where the draft is undoubtedly professional and potential draftees closely scrutinised, only two have been unqualified successes. Reid, Bennell, Brown and Adams have/had decent careers. Jury is probably still out on the last three in the list. I have omitted the duds that were around many of those picks (eg Astbury's draft had 0 gamers at pick 32 and 36)

At that stage in the draft, it tends to be a bit speculative. I have no problem giving up a single pick 35 for SPS (and I think we won't anyway, for an out of contract player that is seemingly on the outer I think we're getting it done for a late pick or a minor pick upgrade).
 

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daddy_4_eyes

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My god, we’re savages. Fancy starting with a low offer
Where do journo's get this inciteful information from?
Do clubs make a habit of disclosing their trade strategies to any journo that gives them a ring? "yeah mate, we're gonna try to screw Carlton over, hopefully they don't push back. Keep it to yourself though, ay?"

:rolleyes:
 

Eastcoasteagle

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Looking ahead to next years draft, after watching u17s championships WA vs SA game and WA u17s vs 19s. It looks like the quality in next years draft is higher, from what I've seen there are some real guns coming through and whilst this is a midfielders draft the next draft is very even with plenty of good talls and kids that are already 200cm and agile.
But the top end talent looks to be there next year, five to six WA guys that look bloody good and another 5 to 6 that look very good. Haven't seen the Vic guys yet, but from all reports there is some elite talent in both metro and country.
Hagan who played as an underager in the WA u19s game vs SA, and was quite dominant I saw in someone's ranking around 20 in next years draft. I know it's very early days, but gives you a feel for the strength of next years.


Based on this, I would not be trading any future picks out for picks this year but rather trying to upgrade our picks for next year.
I would be looking to use our first two picks in the draft this year( 10 and 29), and then look to trade the others into next years, Brisbane have a top end father son (Ashcroft) for next year that we could look to package up some second and third round future picks to secure their first.

35 and 49 (although SPS will complicate this) could be exchanged to the dogs for their second rounder next year, then use both second round picks we have next year for Brisbanes first.
 

Monocle

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Looking ahead to next years draft, after watching u17s championships WA vs SA game and WA u17s vs 19s. It looks like the quality in next years draft is higher, from what I've seen there are some real guns coming through and whilst this is a midfielders draft the next draft is very even with plenty of good talls and kids that are already 200cm and agile.
But the top end talent looks to be there next year, five to six WA guys that look bloody good and another 5 to 6 that look very good. Haven't seen the Vic guys yet, but from all reports there is some elite talent in both metro and country.
Hagan who played as an underager in the WA u19s game vs SA, and was quite dominant I saw in someone's ranking around 20 in next years draft. I know it's very early days, but gives you a feel for the strength of next years.


Based on this, I would not be trading any future picks out for picks this year but rather trying to upgrade our picks for next year.
I would be looking to use our first two picks in the draft this year( 10 and 29), and then look to trade the others into next years, Brisbane have a top end father son (Ashcroft) for next year that we could look to package up some second and third round future picks to secure their first.

35 and 49 (although SPS will complicate this) could be exchanged to the dogs for their second rounder next year, then use both second round picks we have next year for Brisbanes first.
Thanks for the info ECE it backs up what a few of the astute and seasoned draft watchers have also said.

Also kudos to you with your call last year on Jake Bowey he has really shot ahead of his draft cohort ( as you predicted he would ) and now has a very good chance to win a Premiership Medal 🥇 in his eighth AFL game.
Well scouted and spotted. 👍
 

AsterixTheGaul

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ATG I like your thoughts.
Lets say on draft night if this Happened:

Brissy gets on the phone to Crazy Vozzo

"Mate we really want your number 10 pick (12)
How about we give you our two late first rounders for your pick plus a third rounder?"

Would you do this?
So the offer is our pick 10 and 49 for Lions picks 14 and 17/18. That would be a 464 points premium. I suspect they may want our R3 in 2022. They are looking for points for Ashcroft F/S next year.

That would leave is with 14, 17/18, 29, 35 and 60 as points carrying picks. I assume we lose one of these for SPS but get something similar back for Brander. I am also thinking we will not use all 5 picks so some additional dealing is required.

I really want a bona fide inside or balanced midfielder. At our range, there are a few. There are some flankers and outside mids I do not want in the first round and I neither do I want a tall. I would want to know the positional player they are wanting at 10. Not the name, but the position. If we believe we could still pick up one of MJ, Ward, Hobbs, Roberts or Gorter at 14, simple answer is yes.

Next:

I would then be selling 29, 35 and 60 in some shape and fashion. Options:
1. Doggies pick 17/18 for 29, 35 and 60 to give the Darcy points - a premium of some 300 to 350 points.
2. Fremantle pick 27 as they will needs points this year Motlop and move back 8 spots with pick 35 and gaining pick 45
Not sure who else will be needing points at that part of the draft.

Selling to Doggies would leave us with 14, 17, 18 and 45. I would be walking away very happy. The question is can I trust the Pieman? That also means we can trade out next year's R1 if we wanted.

Selling to Freo is also pretty good leaving is with 14, 17/18, 27, 29 and 60.
 

daddy_4_eyes

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So the offer is our pick 10 and 49 for Lions picks 14 and 17/18. That would be a 464 points premium. I suspect they may want our R3 in 2022. They are looking for points for Ashcroft F/S next year.

That would leave is with 14, 17/18, 29, 35 and 60 as points carrying picks. I assume we lose one of these for SPS but get something similar back for Brander. I am also thinking we will not use all 5 picks so some additional dealing is required.

I really want a bona fide inside or balanced midfielder. At our range, there are a few. There are some flankers and outside mids I do not want in the first round and I neither do I want a tall. I would want to know the positional player they are wanting at 10. Not the name, but the position. If we believe we could still pick up one of MJ, Ward, Hobbs, Roberts or Gorter at 14, simple answer is yes.

Next:

I would then be selling 29, 35 and 60 in some shape and fashion. Options:
1. Doggies pick 17/18 for 29, 35 and 60 to give the Darcy points - a premium of some 300 to 350 points.
2. Fremantle pick 27 as they will needs points this year Motlop and move back 8 spots with pick 35 and gaining pick 45
Not sure who else will be needing points at that part of the draft.

Selling to Doggies would leave us with 14, 17, 18 and 45. I would be walking away very happy. The question is can I trust the Pieman? That also means we can trade out next year's R1 if we wanted.

Selling to Freo is also pretty good leaving is with 14, 17/18, 27, 29 and 60.
I've read about the depth of quality of the draft on here. This changes from expert to expert, top 3 then next 10 are equal. or Top 5 then next 15 are the same. etc.

Any concern that pick 10 --> 14 results in us dropping from one "tier" of quality down to the next?
 

AsterixTheGaul

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I've read about the depth of quality of the draft on here. This changes from expert to expert, top 3 then next 10 are equal. or Top 5 then next 15 are the same. etc.

Any concern that pick 10 --> 14 results in us dropping from one "tier" of quality down to the next?
from 10 (net 12) to 14 (net 16) is less about a drop off in quality and more a focus on inside/balanced midfielders for me.
 

hudson2006

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On a serious note, i don't think pick 49 will get it done. SPS is not a world beater, but he isn't delist fodder either.

Someone suggested SPS+25 for 29+35. That probably seems on the money unless either club can bring other draft picks to the table.
I think that’s a bit much. There is something between world beater and delist fodder - a role player or best 20-30 list depth.

I look at the Langdon & Witherden trades as comparable. SPS is one of these IMO, as he has also had exposed AFL form and is not immediately b22.

49 is spot on.
 
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