Certified Legendary Thread Corona, Jamaica ooh I wanna take ya (COVID-19 Information & Discussion Here) Part 2 "The Second Wave"

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Aug 9, 2019
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I don't think they'll survive the next election. As much as I think they recovered well AFTER their monumental cockup in quarantine... I just think his inaction now (scared to reopen) is going to cost him in the long run.
Nah he'll get re-elected (if he runs)....it's a Victorian thing and the LNP don't have the right front man again in Michael O'Brien.
 

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Interesting that a Federal Minister said tonight that it would be 9-12 months at best before Australia can start producing the COVID vaccine.

Some of us get sucked into following the media stories every other day that a workable vaccine is close... as they chase our attention in a pandemic.

Those who have any clue about vaccines know they take time to develop.

Funny how you still haven't answered the time taken to develop the quickest vaccine.

You can huff & bluff all you want... but time will tell who has a realistic grasp as to the time needed to develop a vaccine.
Don't get suck into the federal minister 9-12 months, it a safe bet option most Politicians will take. As it is firmly believed there will be more than 10 approved Vaccines available in that time frame. including the Queensland vaccine, Any pollie worth his salt is going to opt for the safe bet in this
Nobody going raise the issue "but you said 9-12 months" if it's approved earlier, However, if the politician mention an earlier time frame and it a March,- June roll out they will be remembered for that especially with a federal election looming.
Also you need to remember there will be a delay between Approval and full roll-out, that meet the standard of the general population,
Look at the backlash when the Flu shot was delayed or not available for everyone,
Note In order for a full roll that meets the expectations of the Public in 9 months, approval will be needed around Jan/Feb,

So basically I take the time frame set by a Politician with a pinch of salt. As it will most likely be more about being a safe bet than accuracy
 

mistylake

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I’m just watching a Melbourne restaurant owner on abc news. He just said part of the process of being able to trade again, is not only reduced numbers, making it unviable. If there is a positive case found to have visited their premises. They are required to do the contact tracing themselves to. 🤔 Crazy ******* koo koo land.
 
Don't get suck into the federal minister 9-12 months, it a safe bet option most Politicians will take. As it is firmly believed there will be more than 10 approved Vaccines available in that time frame. including the Queensland vaccine, Any pollie worth his salt is going to opt for the safe bet in this
Nobody going raise the issue "but you said 9-12 months" if it's approved earlier, However, if the politician mention an earlier time frame and it a March,- June roll out they will be remembered for that especially with a federal election looming.
Also you need to remember there will be a delay between Approval and full roll-out, that meet the standard of the general population,
Look at the backlash when the Flu shot was delayed or not available for everyone,
Note In order for a full roll that meets the expectations of the Public in 9 months, approval will be needed around Jan/Feb,

So basically I take the time frame set by a Politician with a pinch of salt. As it will most likely be more about being a safe bet than accuracy
So when are you predicting a vaccine will begin to be rolled out across Australia?

I'm predicting you will be nowhere near close... & it will occur many months after your prediction.
 

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So when are you predicting a vaccine will begin to be rolled out across Australia?

I'm predicting you will be nowhere near close... & it will occur many months after your prediction.
Predicting approval late this year or early next year, Production starting around Jan/Feb, First to get the vaccine will be the High priority Followed by the essential services workers Then the essential workers, etc follow lastly by the General Population who will be in March even latter.
Note The major issue most do not understand is the issue with shelf life at this time the Promising vaccines have a working shelf life of 5-10 days This will create a bottleneck, meaning they cannot produce a huge amount in one go, it will have to be a controlled roll-out,
A population of 25million with over 70% uptake with a 5-10 day shelf life and you're looking at up to a 6 month total roll-out, (note very close to 9 months predicted by the Government)
Now it has to be understood one vaccine is not the answer, it's a start, There are talks that in order to control the virus, it may take up to 3-4 different vaccines depending on the person, but that another story. and there are models being discussed around that as well.
 
Predicting approval late this year or early next year, Production starting around Jan/Feb, First to get the vaccine will be the High priority Followed by the essential services workers Then the essential workers, etc follow lastly by the General Population who will be in March even latter.
Note The major issue most do not understand is the issue with shelf life at this time the Promising vaccines have a working shelf life of 5-10 days This will create a bottleneck, meaning they cannot produce a huge amount in one go, it will have to be a controlled roll-out,
A population of 25million with over 70% uptake with a 5-10 day shelf life and you're looking at up to a 6 month total roll-out, (note very close to 9 months predicted by the Government)
Now it has to be understood one vaccine is not the answer, it's a start, There are talks that in order to control the virus, it may take up to 3-4 different vaccines depending on the person, but that another story. and there are models being discussed around that as well.
I doubt a vaccine will be rolled out before July 2021.
 

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I doubt a vaccine will be rolled out before July 2021.
Roll out will happen much earlier,
He is a good article touches on what I am saying, re roll-out difficulties, You don't have to Believe Dr Antony Fauci claim of approval in a couple of weeks, but the part about the US donating $1 billion to go towards the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine and secured 400 million doses is I believe true, And don't believe the title Fauci is not a Trump person, far from it.
There is more information available,


Please note my expertise is not medical, My specialty is more base on risk vs reward and logistics,
 

fortunatecrow

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The Victorian contact tracers were instructed not to use it and that is where most of the cases have been
Cause and effect. They were probably told not to use it because it was widely known already to be completely useless.

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mistylake

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I can't see anything meaningful in your stats.
All I was getting at was the US were financially better placed than Australia, to do the lockdowns at the start like us and quell this thing. For whatever reasons they didn’t and now they can’t, because the horse has bolted.
 

fortunatecrow

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Cause and effect. They were probably told not to use it because it was widely known already to be completely useless.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
We will never really know. It certainly wouldn't have found all contacts, probably not even most, but it might have found some. And with the mess the Victoria contact tracing was in why not use it? Seems more likely that it was a decision based on the same logic as not admitting that NSW had a much better system that we could maybe have learnt from....ego and or politics
 
All I was getting at was the US were financially better placed than Australia, to do the lockdowns at the start like us and quell this thing. For whatever reasons they didn’t and now they can’t, because the horse has bolted.
I would say both countries were equally capable of lockdowns.

Fortunately our leadership has generally been far better at acting quickly when it was clear it was needed.
 
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I would say both countries were equally capable of lockdowns.

Fortunately our leadership has generally been far better at acting quickly when it was clear it was needed.

I don't think so. In the land of the free, they all have guns, making it much less likely that a lockdown would be accepted.
 
I don't think so. In the land of the free, they all have guns, making it much less likely that a lockdown would be accepted.
Agreed, but I was arguing against misty's claim that the US are better placed financially.
 
Cause and effect. They were probably told not to use it because it was widely known already to be completely useless.

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Yet NSW successfully used.

If anything it would have been more use to the Victorians with a worse tracing system & much higher numbers.

Just ruling it out as an option is stupid.
 
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I don't think so. In the land of the free, they all have guns, making it much less likely that a lockdown would be accepted.

Perhaps if their leader had actually embraced and joint agreement between Democrats and Republicans it could have worked given his base of voter support follow him blindly.

The problem is they have a naraccistic politician who didn’t take it seriously - ala it will go away in April, summer will see it disappear. Failure of Trump is gigantic. No ifs and no buts.
 

mistylake

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I don't think so. In the land of the free, they all have guns, making it much less likely that a lockdown would be accepted.
I didn’t really realise they are not as United as we’re led to believe. Our prime minister has had little say in how things are done by the states. It’s a magnitude greater there but Trump did * up. It’s just a shame the timing got him and not someone a bit less me, me, me. He’s definitely not alone in having it get out of control though. Australia and NZ are the outliers really
 
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