Corona virus and other pestilences. Poxes ‘n stuff. Part 5.

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OneGreatClub said:
It’s probably in your best interests to click the button.
You aren’t showing general concern for someone’s welfare, you are mocking, and you know it.
There was zero wrong with my original post. Zero.
You can bullshit all you like about being concerned, but that not your game, and you know it, and you don’t like being called out on it.
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I'm not showing concern?

For the last year I've questioned the effectiveness of the vaccine and the government messaging around it, and advocated that the only way to prevent those infections and deaths is lockdown, and been concerned that governments will back themselves in to a corner with the get vaccinated so we can open up and live normally. I'm not forcing anyone to do anything, except consider that. People will still die and get sick, worse than being unvaccinated in lockdown. The vaccine will end up causing more illness and death than lockdown that roundabout way. Apparently vaccinated and no lockdown is the preferred approach of the greater public, and this isn't dictatorship.

Maybe my way of showing it is different to yours, maybe because of that you reckon I'm an anti vaxxer, or selfish, or whatnot. Whatever.

There's zero wrong with your answer but on a personal I just don't know how constructive it is to continually be so. Invested. In. Covid. Being. Deadly. When the world is moving on. And the tiny chance that your approach can negatively effect others that see it. And maybe (definitely) I showed that by taking the piss.

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edgie said:
I'm not showing concern?

For the last year I've questioned the effectiveness of the vaccine and the government messaging around it, and advocated that the only way to prevent those infections and deaths is lockdown, and been concerned that governments will back themselves in to a corner with the get vaccinated so we can open up and live normally. I'm not forcing anyone to do anything, except consider that. People will still die and get sick, worse than being unvaccinated in lockdown. The vaccine will end up causing more illness and death than lockdown that roundabout way. Apparently vaccinated and no lockdown is the preferred approach of the greater public, and this isn't dictatorship.

Maybe my way of showing it is different to yours, maybe because of that you reckon I'm an anti vaxxer, or selfish, or whatnot. Whatever.

There's zero wrong with your answer but on a personal I just don't know how constructive it is to continually be so. Invested. In. Covid. Being. Deadly. When the world is moving on. And the tiny chance that your approach can negatively effect others that see it. And maybe (definitely) I showed that by taking the piss.

Sent from my Nokia 7.2 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I am sorry if my posts make you anxious or affect you negatively, that is not a good thing, we all deal with things differently, I just post what I see to be true, that as far as I can see the pandemic is not over.

You say you are concerned for my mental health but perhaps for you own mental health you should avoid this thread altogether or block my posts, then you can see the world and what is happening the way you want to and you will deal with it better.


I mean, I rarely go to the sack Hinkley threads these days with the thousands of negative posts as I am over all that repetitive stuff and basically happy to wait until we get a new coach soon. You could do the same with this thread.

I post what I believe to be the situation, you may see it differently.
And I do repeatedly and will continue to advocate for masking and ventilation, filtration. I feel it is
the way going forward.
I know you have said your partner had not experienced stress as HCW but I hear and see different from others, I hope we do all we can to reduce hospital pressure too, instead of pretending it is over, practice safe behaviours where possible.

Anyway I will attempt to post a little less and maybe more thoughtfully for those here that are anxious? but I will continue to post what I see as relevant.

I am pleased you admit there was nothing wrong with my original post.
 
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Power Girl said:
It is also a movie with the stunningly beautiful Ingrid Bergman. The guy who played her husband was a bit stilted though
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Yep. 1944 with the husband (Boyer) trying to play tricks on her mind including adjusting the gas flow. Subsequent movies and series play on the same theme including the comical Gaslit now streaming on Stan with Julia Roberts playing the wife of the US Attorney General Mitchell (played by Sean Penn) who was the first person to raise public suspicions over the Watergate break in. The attempt by Nixon cronies and the press to portray her as unhinged etc. is where the title comes from.

Schulzenfest said:
Festerz OneGreatClub define gaslighting and then explain how anything edgie has posted constitutes it.
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Was going to ignore this as it is off topic, not just a matter of a simple dictionary definition so requiring a detailed response, and knowing my response will not make things better.

But as your question was directed at me and you are a poster who who generally plays with a straight bat I will attempt to answer, bearing in mind we are talking about a psychological term and I am obviously no expert.

'Gaslighting' (taken from the 1938 play/1944 movie as Power Girl correctly points out) is a recognised psychological term relating to the emotional manipulation that can occur in relationships, the workplace and on-line.

And in that context it is can be based on the perceptions of the victim even when it is not the main intent of the person doing it - as One Great Club accurately described.

How does gaslighting 'feel' to the person experiencing it? Examples:

  • Frequently doubting yourself (e.g. “am I too emotional?” “did this actually happen?”)
  • Constantly assuming you did something wrong (feeling it’s always your fault or that you’re to blame)
  • Feeling the need to apologize (leading to over apologizing)
  • Making excuses for other people’s actions (or rationalizing why they did something that hurt you)
  • Feeling like you have to prove everything
  • Feeling like you constantly have to back up your reasoning/views of things with an abundance of facts
  • Sensing something is wrong, but feeling like you’re not able to “put your finger on it”
  • Regularly feeling misunderstood and alone
What does gaslighting 'sound' like? Examples:

  • “You’re too sensitive”
  • “You’re too emotional”
  • “You know you sound insane right now, right?”
  • “You’re making a big deal out of nothing, like always”
  • “Nothing you’re saying makes sense, do you even hear yourself?”
  • “You’re being paranoid”
  • “You’re acting crazy” or “you’re overreacting”
  • “I was joking! You take everything personally”
  • “That never even happened.” “This is what happened…” or “this is what I said…”
  • “Why should I believe you? Everyone knows you’re full of it”
  • “You’re not thinking clearly”
  • “You’re making yourself the victim when I’m the one who should be mad”
Source: Gaslighting: How to Recognize it and What to Say When it Happens

Take a look at some of those examples given above about what gaslighting is and you can see almost all of them in some of the posts in this thread.

So yes, it appears to me that One Greats Club's description of being gaslighted by Edgie's comments directed at them is correct, especially when taken in context of the constant targeting of OGC, sometimes in a deeply and offensive manner, by a couple of trolls in this thread. Papa G's puerile posts from yesterday relating to the INFJ Jung/Myers-Briggs personality and his self important claim about mocking stupid people being classic examples. (but he was just joking, right?).

And also yes, it is entirely consistent with Edgie's intention not to offend and that on its own Edgie's comment was pretty lightweight. What matters is the context of that post in an on-going pile on against one poster that far too often crosses the line (IMHO) - something that Edgie has correctly recognised subsequently. Coincidentally it turns out the relationship between narcissists and gaslighting behaviours is well recognised.

www.psychologytoday.com

6 Common Traits of Narcissists and Gaslighters

How narcissists and gaslighters emotionally manipulate and exploit victims.
www.psychologytoday.com www.psychologytoday.com

Sorry for the length of the answer but hope that explains why I have signalled my disagreement with your posts on this including your bizarre insistence that OGC back up his one word claim of 'gaslighting' or that he was making a fool of himself when he was actually spot on. Again, my opinion only. I have no intention of engaging in further discussion on it.

Sometimes a simple thumbs down 'disagree' reaction is the better option when the rationale for behind it is so complex or convulted. Especially in the sub board of a footy forum.
 
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OneGreatClub said:
...

I mean, I rarely go to the sack Hinkley threads these days with the thousands of negative posts as I am over all that repetitive stuff and basically happy to wait until we get a new coach soon. You could do the same with this thread.
...
Click to expand...

Your loss, there was a brilliant lesson on workplace policy regarding compliant terminations.
 
SA cases are below 3,000 for the third day in a row. It is the first time that has happened since March 13-15.
Hospital numbers also falling slowly and there have been no deaths in the last 3 days and 3 deaths in 6 days.

With the threat of an influenza outbreak this is good news. Hopefully the trend is maintained.

Of course the cloud over these stats is the possibility that many cases are not being reported. People develop symptoms, take a RAT it comes up positive and they stay home for a couple of days without telling the world or if they are asymptomatic they continue as normal.

I will think positive and assume the stats are indicative of a downturn in infection.
 

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raptalia said:
SA cases are below 3,000 for the third day in a row. It is the first time that has happened since March 13-15.
Hospital numbers also falling slowly and there have been no deaths in the last 3 days and 3 deaths in 6 days.

With the threat of an influenza outbreak this is good news. Hopefully the trend is maintained.

Of course the cloud over these stats is the possibility that many cases are not being reported. People develop symptoms, take a RAT it comes up positive and they stay home for a couple of days without telling the world or if they are asymptomatic they continue as normal.

I will think positive and assume the stats are indicative of a downturn in infection.
Click to expand...

Certainly nice to think positive, but let's also be realistic and acknowledge that the positive case numbers aren't exactly a true and accurate representation of the actual number of cases - given that many cases are asymptomatic and many people are no longer reporting positive RATs to the relevant government authorities. I would suggest that the best way to determine stress and strain on the medical system using very limited data would be to determine the percentage of the current healthcare workforce who are available to work (that is not in isolation with covid or other illnesses) along with the percentage of patients that are taking up hospital beds and are there strictly because of their covid related illness (ie not counting people who come to the ED with a gash on their leg, do a RAT and then get counted as a positive case in a hospital). Ideally then there would be available data to show workforce availability over the last 5 years or so in healthcare along with hospital bed vacancy rates etc which would help provide some perspective on the current situation here in SA.

Nonetheless, the trend for covid hospitalisation in SA is coming down, and that like you said is reason for optimism at this point.
 
Australia wide just over 7,000 cases of influenza were reported in the fortnight between April 25 and May 8. In 2021 only 598 cases were reported for the entire year.

In SA there have been 1,195 cases of influenza reported this year compared with just 12 at the same time last year.

www.sbs.com.au

NSW to offer free flu vaccinations for all residents amid a sharp increase in influenza cases

NSW residents can receive a free flu jab from Wednesday as cases of Influenza are on the rise.
www.sbs.com.au www.sbs.com.au
 
Wanted to see what was happening to the age profile of deaths from covid - and whether there were changes over recent times.
To do that I have compared all covid deaths prior to 8th Jan 2022 (080122) with all subsequent deaths between 8th Jan 2022 to 31 May 2022 (310522):

prior to 8th Jan 2022 (080122) - 2301 deaths
8th Jan 2022 -> 31 May 2022 (080122 ->310522) - 5654 deaths

The accumulating deaths with age range can be modelled pretty well as a continuous function for both of the above time frames (curves in graph A below; LHS). They are called cumulative frequency distributions (CFDs). The model curves fit pretty well and reflect about 99.1% of deaths in both cases above (clearly should be 100% but close enough).

There have been some changes and the curve 080122 -> 310522 has shifted to a higher age range. They are dying older than those who have died before 080122.

Turns out you can change Curves A (LHS) to Curves B (RHS) - probability density functions (PDFs), which reflect the probability of dying from covid at specified ages. Curves B (RHS) really just support the observations of Curves A (LHS).
cfd and pdf 080122 and 080122-310522.jpg
If you subtract the 2 bell shaped curves in the Curves B plot (RHS) you can get some quantitative idea of the extent of the changes between the 2 plots. Specifically I have taken the 080122 data away from the [080122 -> 310522] data to see how the latter changes with respect to 080122.
So % deaths at <80 in the time frame 080122 -> 310522 have dropped relative to 080122 by about 6.5%, and conversely have increased by 6.5% at > 80. These are the areas under the +ve and -ve parts of the curve.

Before 8th Jan 2022 (080122):
Probability of death from covid at <80yo: 44.4%
Probability of death from covid at >80yo: 55.6%

These figures can be adjusted down and up by 6.5%

In the period 080122 -> 310522:
Probability of death from covid at <80yo: 37.9%
Probability of death from covid at >80yo: 62.1%

What was a bad outcome for aged people has gotten worse. Not by much, but this is a dynamic situation, and time may see a further worsening.

Differential in PDF profiles for 080122 and 310522.jpg
 
Lawnchair Larry said:
Wanted to see what was happening to the age profile of deaths from covid - and whether there were changes over recent times.
To do that I have compared all covid deaths prior to 8th Jan 2022 (080122) with all subsequent deaths between 8th Jan 2022 to 31 May 2022 (310522):

prior to 8th Jan 2022 (080122) - 2301 deaths
8th Jan 2022 -> 31 May 2022 (080122 ->310522) - 5654 deaths

The accumulating deaths with age range can be modelled pretty well as a continuous function for both of the above time frames (curves in graph A below; LHS). They are called cumulative frequency distributions (CFDs). The model curves fit pretty well and reflect about 99.1% of deaths in both cases above (clearly should be 100% but close enough).

There have been some changes and the curve 080122 -> 310522 has shifted to a higher age range. They are dying older than those who have died before 080122.

Turns out you can change Curves A (LHS) to Curves B (RHS) - probability density functions (PDFs), which reflect the probability of dying from covid at specified ages. Curves B (RHS) really just support the observations of Curves A (LHS).
View attachment 1414920
If you subtract the 2 bell shaped curves in the Curves B plot (RHS) you can get some quantitative idea of the extent of the changes between the 2 plots. Specifically I have taken the 080122 data away from the [080122 -> 310522] data to see how the latter changes with respect to 080122.
So % deaths at <80 in the time frame 080122 -> 310522 have dropped relative to 080122 by about 6.5%, and conversely have increased by 6.5% at > 80. These are the areas under the +ve and -ve parts of the curve.

Before 8th Jan 2022 (080122):
Probability of death from covid at <80yo: 44.4%
Probability of death from covid at >80yo: 55.6%

These figures can be adjusted down and up by 6.5%

In the period 080122 -> 310522:
Probability of death from covid at <80yo: 37.9%
Probability of death from covid at >80yo: 62.1%

What was a bad outcome for aged people has gotten worse. Not by much, but this is a dynamic situation, and time may see a further worsening.

View attachment 1414921
Click to expand...
Thanks for the work you put into that.
Many call the old the Dry Tinder that will be burnt off first. 🙁
I saw somewhere that the average years loss per Covid19 death is approx 10 years.
The elderly still have a lot to offer society.

Went to the Annual Hawke Lecture at Adelaide Town Hall this evening.
Peter Doherty was the speaker. Very entertaining.
He talked on many things science related including SARS2 and Climate Change.
He made a good point that a scientific experiment is usually done with clear parameters and in a fairly controlled situation but the SARS2 pandemic has made the jobs of scientists increasingly difficult because of the speed of change of the thing, but. progress is being made.
He believes new infectious disease breakouts, pandemics even, will become more prevalent but has high hopes for antivirals going forward.
 
FishingRick04 said:
Check out the 7:30 report from the 1/6.
Click to expand...
It was 31/5 and imho lacking in anything factual relaying to Andrews doing anything wrong, but full of shallow innuendo. (giving evidence behind closed doors sounds sinister but is just there to protect against defamatory commentary). Piss poor stuff from the ABC imho



But here is the full broadcast for others to make their own mind up. Absolutely no idea why you think this relates to covid.

www.abc.net.au

7.30

www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
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