Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 2.

[Doctor Feel]

Turning the corner hopefully. No matter what people say, lockdowns work to squash the curve.

Seriously though, why has it been so hard for us. We're an isolated country, how on earth do you * that up? How ******* hard is it to stop it coming in? Eliminate it and don't let a soul back into the country unless on compassionate grounds - under strict round the clock supervision and quarantine.

 

[TeeKray]

Turning the corner hopefully. No matter what people say, lockdowns work to squash the curve.

Seriously though, why has it been so hard for us. We're an isolated country, how on earth do you fu** that up? How ******* hard is it to stop it coming in? Eliminate it and don't let a soul back into the country unless on compassionate grounds - under strict round the clock supervision and quarantine.

You can't close your border to Australian citizens, that would entirely defeat the concept of citizenship.

If it weren't for Victoria f****** it all up with their various bungles, we'd just about be all clear.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Yo-yo until vaccine


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Doc Swan pointed out this morning on abc. If a vaccine were available today it would be 18 months before the average person would be able to access it. We've got about 2-3 more years of this unless it is eliminated from the community.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Morons like these are why it is hard to contain Coronavirus

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Morons like these are why it is hard to contain Coronavirus

People that drive though are morons. Victorian plates you can not be in SA without the police patrol cars computers flagging you as someone of interest to check out. What do these people actually think is going happen? They ll drive around town unnoticed?

 

[G3TWOTYAD3S3RV]

Doc Swan pointed out this morning on abc. If a vaccine were available today it would be 18 months before the average person would be able to access it. We've got about 2-3 more years of this unless it is eliminated from the community.

I don’t believe that, that’s the absolute worst case scenario & just won’t be the case


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[Leaveit2charlie]

I don’t believe that, that’s the absolute worst case scenario & just won’t be the case


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Dr Swan is usually on the money. He’s not one to sugarcoat anything. BTW his son was the journalist who gave Trump a hard time during an interview last week. It’s in the blood.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Dr Swan is usually on the money. He’s not one to sugarcoat anything. BTW his son was the journalist who gave Trump a hard time during an interview last week. It’s in the blood.

He also has that negative, tight, Scot character. He doesn't sugarcoat things, but he presents worse case scenarios as the most likely scenario.

He said we would be Italy if we don't change certain things back in mid March, ignoring that Italy hadn't shut the borders, there were people flying back and forth from Wuhan to northern Italy because of the manufacturing industry set up in both countries and partnerships and subsidiaries, fashion shows and fashion industry in Milan and exchanges with Chinese counterparts, Italy has a lot more older people than Oz, more older smokers, live in more confined housing than on average in Oz, they were in the middle of winter, and Italians listen even less to their governments than Aussies, given they have had about 50 changes of government since WWII and Oz about 7 and they are even more sceptical than us.

He was right that we had to improve our attitude, social distancing, shutting things down, but it was hyperbole saying we would be a carbon copy of Italy.

 

[pastmyprimus]

Victoria’s daily COVID-19 reporting is hopelessly inadequate

This is an article written by Dr Stephen Duckett. He is a former head of the Victorian health department He also ran the equivalent department at the national level. He's critical of the data the Vic government releases in its daily updates. A few quotes:

What the public is told each day is a selected subset of the data currently being used to manage the pandemic. We are told lagging indicators only: what happened yesterday because of what happened weeks ago

The government has additional information it does not disclose – information it is using to track progress of the pandemic. It uses this additional information to massage its message – to hint whether things are getting better or worse.

What the government is sitting on are leading indicators. It knows the number of contacts each case had; the number of people it is now attempting to trace; and the proportion of contacts successfully traced in the past. It knows whether the effective reproduction number is above or below 1, and whether it has increased or decreased.

More, and more useful information is provided to the public in other jurisdictions around the world. Oregon sets a standard that 95 per cent of newly infected people are contacted within 24 hours, and reports against that daily. Washington DC reports the proportion of new COVID-19 cases that are from quarantined contacts, because these new cases are less likely to cause further outbreaks. They are well below their stated target of 60 per cent, but the target is set, and their figures are starting to improve.

We Victorians are told how many tests are conducted, but we are told nothing about the performance of the substantial testing regime. The speed with which testing is processed is crucial to our contact tracing capabilities and thus our understanding of how well we are prepared to fight this virus. The public has a right to know the full story and be told more about what is happening.

Victoria’s daily COVID-19 reporting is hopelessly inadequate

The Victorian Parliament is essentially in hibernation and so the key public accountability is through these daily media circuses.

www.theage.com.au

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Victoria’s daily COVID-19 reporting is hopelessly inadequate

This is an article written by Dr Stephen Duckett. He is a former head of the Victorian health department He also ran the equivalent department at the national level. He's critical of the data the Vic government releases in its daily updates. A few quotes:

What the public is told each day is a selected subset of the data currently being used to manage the pandemic. We are told lagging indicators only: what happened yesterday because of what happened weeks ago

The government has additional information it does not disclose – information it is using to track progress of the pandemic. It uses this additional information to massage its message – to hint whether things are getting better or worse.

What the government is sitting on are leading indicators. It knows the number of contacts each case had; the number of people it is now attempting to trace; and the proportion of contacts successfully traced in the past. It knows whether the effective reproduction number is above or below 1, and whether it has increased or decreased.

More, and more useful information is provided to the public in other jurisdictions around the world. Oregon sets a standard that 95 per cent of newly infected people are contacted within 24 hours, and reports against that daily. Washington DC reports the proportion of new COVID-19 cases that are from quarantined contacts, because these new cases are less likely to cause further outbreaks. They are well below their stated target of 60 per cent, but the target is set, and their figures are starting to improve.

We Victorians are told how many tests are conducted, but we are told nothing about the performance of the substantial testing regime. The speed with which testing is processed is crucial to our contact tracing capabilities and thus our understanding of how well we are prepared to fight this virus. The public has a right to know the full story and be told more about what is happening.

Victoria’s daily COVID-19 reporting is hopelessly inadequate

The Victorian Parliament is essentially in hibernation and so the key public accountability is through these daily media circuses.

www.theage.com.au

The Kiwi prof who is Melbourne based and regularly gets interviewed and name escapes me, basically just said the same thing on Norman Swan's 7 or 8 minute report on 7.30 tonight.

He talked about the need to break down the numbers every day offered to the public by sex, age, location, race health issues etc. Said the number by itself is almost useless.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

pastmyprimus the epidemiologist I mentioned in my last post is this bloke, Melbourne Uni Prof Tony Blakey and my bad, he was interviewed by Leigh Sales after Swan's report.

Professor Tony Blakely - Latest research stories and news | Pursuit by The University of Melbourne

pursuit.unimelb.edu.au

 

[Pappagallo]

Turning the corner hopefully. No matter what people say, lockdowns work to squash the curve.

Seriously though, why has it been so hard for us. We're an isolated country, how on earth do you fu** that up? How ******* hard is it to stop it coming in? Eliminate it and don't let a soul back into the country unless on compassionate grounds - under strict round the clock supervision and quarantine.

The home/hotel quarantine arrangements have been nothing short of a joke because they relied on trust and unfortunately some people have proven that they just cannot be trusted to do the right thing. The system was munted from the get go.

No f@&king about next time. Every single international arrival should been sent to an army-operated quarantine station in the desert until they are 100% in the clear.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Wow

 

[Capital Power]

The home/hotel quarantine arrangements have been nothing short of a joke because they relied on trust and unfortunately some people have proven that they just cannot be trusted to do the right thing. The system was munted from the get go.

No f@&king about next time. Every single international arrival should been sent to an army-operated quarantine station in the desert until they are 100% in the clear.

Weirdly when this all started we made international arrivals quarantine on Christmas island, and the media went nuts. Had we evolved that into a longer term solution it may have been ideal.

 

[G3TWOTYAD3S3RV]

Weirdly when this all started we made international arrivals quarantine on Christmas island, and the media went nuts. Had we evolved that into a longer term solution it may have been ideal.

Yeah I found that odd


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[Chewy316]

Wow

There would be absolutely zero evidence from the health regulatory bodies to warrant this. So easy for the state leaders to go ultra, ultra conservative when they have the luxury of the fed govt to bail them out financially though.

Alas, given it's election time, maybe the focus groups showed this to be a favourable outcome by the constituents. Bloody mad and a helluva power trip nonetheless.

 

[raptalia]

Wow

Not sure that Michael Gunner can do that. Border closures only have currency while a State of Emergency has been declared under a Commonwealth Act such as the Biosecurity Act 2015. The current State of Emergency was declared in March 2020 but I have not found where it was extended but it must have been to facilitate the international travel bans. Even then the decision to close borders is open to challenge as is currently happening. If Morrison revokes the State of Emergency then the act of closing State or Territory borders is likely to be even more tenuous.

COVID-19 Biosecurity Emergency Declaration

This FlagPost was first published on 19 March 2020 and has been updated on 27 March 2020 to reflect further Government measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On 18 March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia, the Governor-General declared that a human bio

www.aph.gov.au

Eighteen months is a long time and probably unnecessary. The same could be achieved by leaving borders closed for six months and extending as necessary. I suspect this is a case of Michael Gunner adopting a tough line to appeal to the voters in the upcoming NT election.

 

[raptalia]

Weirdly when this all started we made international arrivals quarantine on Christmas island, and the media went nuts. Had we evolved that into a longer term solution it may have been ideal.

The real objections came from the residents of Christmas Island who were not happy about the possibility of being exposed to COVID-19. The expats were under strict supervision while in quarantine so what could possibly go wrong?

 

[raptalia]

294 new cases in Victoria today will be seen as good news as it indicates the growth of the infection is being contained.

Unfortunately the death toll keeps rising with another 19 deaths recorded today but with the amount of contamination in Victorian Aged Care Facilities this is sadly inevitable.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

There is also a higher lag time to death than to reported case one would imagine. Awful way to look at it but a lot of those deaths are going to be from the spread a week or two back.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Wouldn’t be at all surprised if a certain aspect of our community are driving some of the anti lockdown agenda due to it disrupting their drug trade.
A lot of unsavoury type characters coming out of the woodwork anti lockdown.

 

[OneGreatClub]

294 new cases in Victoria today will be seen as good news as it indicates the growth of the infection is being contained.

Unfortunately the death toll keeps rising with another 19 deaths recorded today but with the amount of contamination in Victorian Aged Care Facilities this is sadly inevitable.

Week two and onwards from infection is when the severe symptoms start so will always be a lag.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Six children under the age of 10 are among the hundreds of Victorians currently fighting coronavirus from hospital.

Of the 650 people, two are aged between 10 and 19, eight in their 20s, 20 in their 30s, 23 in their 40s, 49 in their 50s and 66 in their 60s. Meanwhile 117 patients are in their 70s, 233 in their 80s and 126 Victorians aged 90 or older.
Premier Daniel Andrews has said on a number of occasions that these statistics show COVID-19 does not discriminate based on age (or any other factor).
Victoria has recorded 331 new cases and 19 deaths in the past 24 hours – equalling the state’s worst ever tally for deaths yesterday.
Although case numbers appear to be steadily falling since last Wednesday’s peak, Mr Andrews said he can’t promise Victoria’s current restrictions will work in six weeks.
“It’ll only have the maximum chance of working in six weeks if everybody plays their part,” he said. “That’s why we’re so grateful the vast majority of people are. Your point about increased compliance, to more people at home, more people doing the right thing, so less people doing the wrong thing, that’s my sense of it.
“That’s been the trend for at least a couple of weeks, I think. So people are making better choices. Unless they do, then we won’t see movement reduced and we won’t see case numbers reduced.”

 

[Forzaport]

Tasmania has recorded its first coronavirus case in 20 days. And yes, the case is a recent return from Melbourne, he was receiving treatment there so he would have been near other positive cases if in a hospital.

 

[OneGreatClub]