Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 2.

[Forzaport]

I think SA gov should have gone the same way as Queensland by focusing on NSW hotspots. Vast majority of NSW/ACT would be fine for travel to SA.

Edit: currently 34 active cases between NSW/ACT almost all from Victoria.

 

[Interstater]

I think SA gov should have gone the same way as Queensland by focusing on NSW hotspots. Vast majority of NSW/ACT would be fine for travel to SA.

Edit: currently 34 active cases between NSW/ACT almost all from Victoria.

I respectfully disagree, we have no idea of the extent yet.
This started on July 3rd and now NSW has 29 active cases that are locally acquired.

If it is back under 20 cases and trending down in a weeks time that's fine.
If there are 1000+ active cases (like in Victoria) in a weeks time then we have done the right thing.

We don't know yet so I agree with erring on the side of caution.

 

[tangolikelama]

We're all hoping it doesn't get to that. With staff they'll need to rely on non ICU specialist trained doctors and nurses which adds to the risk of treatment

Yep could get rough. They've taken on 100's of nurses for fast track training. Fingers crossed numbers start going day by friday...

 

[Forzaport]

I respectfully disagree, we have no idea of the extent yet.
This started on July 3rd and now NSW has 29 active cases that are locally acquired.

If it is back under 20 cases and trending down in a weeks time that's fine.
If there are 1000+ active cases (like in Victoria) in a weeks time then we have done the right thing.

We don't know yet so I agree with erring on the side of caution.

Unless you know something I don’t, community transmission (edit: read as “unknown transmission”) hasn’t budged in NSW/ACT - almost all cases are from across the border and/or localised.

If there is a surge in active cases it is highly unlikely that it would be due to the current issue with travelling victorians.

 

[Iwish]

Hopefully the situation in nsw will just be the hotel cluster and doesn't become another Vic situation. We will know soon enough by weeks end probably.
But if I was the afl I would move all matches in Syd this weekend to qld. And move the 2 sydney sides out just in case. Be ahead of the game for a change don't sit and wait if in 7 days time it's ok in Syd send the clubs back.

 

[Forzaport]

Just looking at Victoria’s hospital numbers - maybe there’s some missing data but I’m seeing 26 in ICU (21 ventilator) and 26 in hospital total. This means everyone in hospital for COVID in Victoria is in ICU. Very strange.

It could be that these people are particularly vulnerable to respiratory infections, even if that same infection is relatively mild in most others. We’re currently in the peak of our typical flu season so now is when the risk of death from flu and pneumonia and presumably COVID would be highest. This probably helped protect us early on as our weather was much warmer.

NSW has had 1 COVID case in ICU since July 1.

 

[pastmyprimus]

Just looking at Victoria’s hospital numbers - maybe there’s some missing data but I’m seeing 26 in ICU (21 ventilator) and 26 in hospital total. This means everyone in hospital for COVID in Victoria is in ICU. Very strange.

It could be that these people are particularly vulnerable to respiratory infections, even if that same infection is relatively mild in most others. We’re currently in the peak of our typical flu season so now is when the risk of death from flu and pneumonia and presumably COVID would be highest. This probably helped protect us early on as our weather was much warmer.

NSW has had 1 COVID case in ICU since July 1.

The latest figure I've seen is 85 patients in hospital, and the same figures for patients in ICU (26) and on a ventilator (21).

 

[wannabejack]

"on the wrong side of the fence."

Map-making mistake prompts call for Victorian community to be included in SA

Victoria's worsening coronavirus situation has caused a public health crisis — but it has also reignited an historic dispute over the boundary between SA and two of its eastern neighbours.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Interstater]

Just looking at Victoria’s hospital numbers - maybe there’s some missing data but I’m seeing 26 in ICU (21 ventilator) and 26 in hospital total. This means everyone in hospital for COVID in Victoria is in ICU. Very strange.

It could be that these people are particularly vulnerable to respiratory infections, even if that same infection is relatively mild in most others. We’re currently in the peak of our typical flu season so now is when the risk of death from flu and pneumonia and presumably COVID would be highest. This probably helped protect us early on as our weather was much warmer.

NSW has had 1 COVID case in ICU since July 1.

Not sure if this has been properly updated yet

 

[Smithy7]

 

[sobrave]

View attachment 912157

what does this mean for teams travelling from NSW?

 

[NEGAN]

The same people crying about a wall, now want border security against their own people


Sadly I wish I was joking

 

[Schulzenfest]

The same people crying about a wall, now want border security against their own people


Sadly I wish I was joking

I wish you were joking too, because the alternative is that you genuinely think that those situations are analogous, and that would mean that you're not all that clever.

 

[Forzaport]

The latest figure I've seen is 85 patients in hospital, and the same figures for patients in ICU (26) and on a ventilator (21).

That makes sense

 

[NEGAN]

I wish you were joking too, because the alternative is that you genuinely think that those situations are analogous, and that would mean that you're not all that clever.

Speaking of criers

Border security not the same ??????

Stop " bad" people coming in not the same????

 

[Iwish]

what does this mean for teams travelling from NSW?

It probably means we won't be able to play home games against sides based or been in nsw recently.
Our home game against saints is ok as they are in qld and I would think we play Essendon week after that's ok too cause they are in qld. We may have to hub in qld again to play some of the other sides. That's worse case scenario though we should be able to play sides who have been in Perth
But wouldn't surprise me if we play only 4 or 5 games in adelaide this year.
Finals will be the issue for the afl if covid is still lingering by then we could qualify for a home final and have to play it in qld unless our borders are open.

 

[chiwigi]

I think the US, and in particular the red states, have basically given up. Focus now seems to be more on their re-election hopes, which staggeringly still seem quite strong. I suppose most of the 120,000+ who will now not be voting will be conveniently ignored .

The joys of the electoral college.
Most deaths will be in concentrated areas such as cities.

 

[OneGreatClub]

The latest figure I've seen is 85 patients in hospital, and the same figures for patients in ICU (26) and on a ventilator (21).

Does that seem a very high percentage of known cases?
Hoping this isn’t just the tip of the iceberg

 

[chiwigi]

I wonder though, if immunity from contracting the virus is in question, whether vaccines would confer any protection beyond a few weeks or months after injection?
Admit I know nothing about vaccines and that they are developing different types.

Will probably be like the flu where they guess the most virulent strain for the year and provide annual immunisation for that.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Speaking of criers

Border security not the same ??????

Stop " bad" people coming in not the same????

One lot of 'bad people' are bad because they've been exposed to a highly infectious disease that has killed hundreds of thousands of people around the world, and has the potential to kill thousands of South Australians if controls aren't imposed. The other lot of 'bad people' are bad because they have brown skin.

I don't know why I bothered with this response. I know you know all this already, because I know right-wing 'arguments' on the internet consist pretty much entirely of wilfully misunderstanding things to create false equivalencies.

 

[raptalia]

Suppression doesn't work. It hasn't worked in the US or Europe as every time you take your foot off the pedal the contamination spikes again. Elimination is possible, we have achieved it in SA, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have also achieved it as has New Zealand. Australia was almost there but the Victorian and NSW Governments were too quick to ease the lock downs.

Experts call for shift in COVID-19 strategy to stop 'endless game of groundhog day'

Australia should change its COVID-19 strategy to a more ambitious "elimination" plan to stop the "endless game of groundhog day" of fighting ongoing outbreaks, some top public health experts say.

www.abc.net.au

This time I agree with the 'experts' and confess to having been a supporter of elimination over suppression. Scott Morrison and the National Cabinet have some thinking to do.

 

[pastmyprimus]

Does that seem a very high percentage of known cases?
Hoping this isn’t just the tip of the iceberg

According to Vic's Chief Health Officer 10% to 20% of all active cases wind up in hospital. I think the total number of hospitalisations fall in the expected range but the number in ICU seem on the high side.

Vic has a total of 1,800 active cases right now. The CHO is expecting hundreds of more hospitalisations in the next fortnight. It's hoped the lockdowns will see a fall in the daily number of cases later this week, and therefore a reduction in hospitalisations later on. Everyone's hoping for that.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

An interesting Quora response has been circulating over night regarding the "1% mortality rate".

Talks about the law of large numbers in relation to how to understand a mortality rate and the impact of the virus on those who have recovered. It's in a US context but it still applies here.

How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

Who wrote that?

Lets do some basic maths. USA stats according to Worldometres is 138,247 deaths so x 19 others need hospitalization = 2,626,693. Given so far cases in US are 3,479,483 I call that BS that deaths and hospitalization has or will at some point in the next 2 weeks, result in a 75.5% hospitalization rate and a hospitalization+ death rate of 79.5%.

I get that the true impact is a lot more than just the mortality rate, some people will have serious heart and lung issues post recovering from covid, but I reckon those other stats were plucked out of thin air for impact affect rather than hard facts.

I get what he is trying to say - the road toll in Oz is a lot more than the 1,200 deaths a year, there is the 30,000 serious and permanent injuries and the 250,000 minor injuries.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Vic's recorded 270 new cases today, 28 are linked to known outbreaks and 242 are under investigation.

Edit : 85 in hospital and 27 in ICU. A big jump in ICU cases in particular. Victoria has approximately 475 ICU beds. 75% of ICU beds are normally occupied leaving around 115 spare. I don't know what the current occupancy rate is but you can see that spare capacity is being gobbled up. And recent reported cases will add to the demand for beds in about 2 weeks.

I don't know what the individual state split is but wasn't all that time in March, April and May used to turn the national ICU beds capacity from 2,000 to 7,500.

Given Vic is 1/4 the population, doesn't that means that Vic ICU's have gone from 500 to 1,850?

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Who wrote that?

Lets do some basic maths. USA stats according to Worldometres is 138,247 deaths so x 19 others need hospitalization = 2,626,693. Given so far cases in US are 3,479,483 I call that BS that deaths and hospitalization has or will at some point in the next 2 weeks, result in a 75.5% hospitalization rate and a hospitalization+ death rate of 79.5%.

I get that the true impact is a lot more than just the mortality rate, some people will have serious heart and lung issues post recovering from covid, but I reckon those other stats were plucked out of thin air for impact affect rather than hard facts.

I get what he is trying to say - the road toll in Oz is a lot more than the 1,200 deaths a year, there is the 30,000 serious and permanent injuries and the 250,000 minor injuries.

About USA numbers. Whilst not good I place about the same value on them as I would Chinas

"Pneumonia Deaths" & "Flu Deaths" Jump Enormously In USA - CleanTechnica

I'm going to keep this piece short, but it seems to be an important data-focused followup to a previous story I wrote regarding an important public health matter. The earlier story was, "Overall Death Count Jumps Mysteriously In Countries Around The World — No Clear Explanation." Yes, there's a...

cleantechnica.com