Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 3.

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Lawnchair Larry

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2015
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And then there’s all those second doses required
Yep the data is going to get awful complicated soon..let alone the actual practicalities.
My understanding - and I have forgotten the reference - is that some participants in the AZ trial went out to a 26 week gap between 1st and 2nd injections. They found that efficacy dropped away with time between injections, after an ideal time gap. So the message is that they need to be relatively tight on time protocols for the 2nd dose.
That single dose J&J product starts to look attractive from that perspective.
 

Holden Hillbilly

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 8, 2004
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India reports 379,164 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 3,646 new deaths.
 

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Steve Dore

International Trade Facilitator
Aug 30, 2004
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India reports 379,164 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 3,646 new deaths.
Talking to a colleague who has family in India and they said that one member of a family group tested positive for COVID-19 and all the other members of the group had the same symptoms but didn't bother getting tested as they then knew that they all had Covid. So anecdotally that would suggest that the number of new cases is very understated.
 

raptalia

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Yep the data is going to get awful complicated soon..let alone the actual practicalities.
My understanding - and I have forgotten the reference - is that some participants in the AZ trial went out to a 26 week gap between 1st and 2nd injections. They found that efficacy dropped away with time between injections, after an ideal time gap. So the message is that they need to be relatively tight on time protocols for the 2nd dose.
That single dose J&J product starts to look attractive from that perspective.
The recommended Gap between Astra Zeneca doses was originally 22 days however the UK vaccination programme showed that the efficacy actually increased with a 3 month gap. The efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine increased from 72% to over 80% when the gap between jabs was increased from the original recommendation of 22 days. When the UK Government first announced they were going to a 3 month gap there was widespread derision as most of us thought it was a bit of a stunt to get more people vaccinated however the sceptics were wrong and Boris and co were right either by good work or good luck.

The AZ trials were a bit of a hotchpotch as many of the trial participants only received a half dose which meant they had to start part of the trial again. This of course meant they were not going to vaccinate trial participants up to three months apart.

I will be interesting to hear what they say when I get my first AZ jab in a few weeks time. I will be insisting on the second jab around three months after the first. Given the wait I have had for the first jab the second one could be next year!
 

Grave Danger

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Grrr - another week of frickin masks, indoors/on public transport at least. The Western Durrby on Sunday is restricted to 75% capacity, with masks.


 

Lawnchair Larry

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As at 29 Apr 2021:

So far, 2,112,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been delivered across Australia.

Change from previous day: 82,000

Taking Australia's population as 25.8mill current % vaccinated = (2.11/25.8) x 100:
8.2% (previous day 7.9%)
 

raptalia

Norm Smith Medallist
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davesnothere

Premiership Player
Sep 29, 2012
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As at 29 Apr 2021:

So far, 2,112,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been delivered across Australia.

Change from previous day: 82,000

Taking Australia's population as 25.8mill current % vaccinated = (2.11/25.8) x 100:
8.2% (previous day 7.9%)
Partially vaccinated. 2 doses required and a couple of weeks beyond the last dose to have the maximum effect.
 

Holden Hillbilly

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The federal government is considering fining and jailing anyone who tries to enter Australia from India amid that country’s COVID-19 crisis.

Australia’s borders have been closed since March last year and, this week, the government clamped down even further, banning all flights, including repatriation dashes, from India.
 

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Lawnchair Larry

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2015
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As at 30 Apr 2021

So far, 2,180,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been delivered across Australia.

Change from previous day: 68,000

Taking Australia's population as 25.8mill current % vaccinated = (2.18/25.8) x 100:
8.4% (previous day 8.2%)
 

Portology

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India hit 100k daily cases on 4th April and they are talking a peak of 500k a day in mid May. But that means it will still be 100k a day for at least 6 weeks after the peak.

As we have seen around the world, when the health system gets overloaded the mortality rate goes from around 1% to somewhere between 3% to 6%, even higher in Italy's case and got to 14% of positive cases in April/May last year. India's mortality rate has been sitting on around 1.5% for 6 months but that will zoom up unfortunately.

Victoria's mortality rate went from 0.86% to 4.40% between 1st July and 15th October last year.

So that's probably 10 million cases recorded in a first 6 weeks to the peak and maybe the same in the next 6 weeks.

That means that from mid April to mid June anywhere from 300k to 500k could die from those reported positive cases. That is bloody scary, especially given the current official tally passed 200k today. 40k have died in April.

People are dying from covid at the moment who haven't even been tested so they won't be recorded as a covid death. The excess deaths stats wont come out for several months to get a truer picture.
The excess deaths stat in India will be understated by an unknown amount. Even in normal circumstances a significant % of deaths in villages with no access to professional healthcare go unreported. So a spike might appear in the numbers for urban areas but elsewhere it'll be masked by non-existent reporting.

Because of the cultural norms around quick cremation it won't be possible to do the sort of detailed, grisly, post pandemic statistical work that was done in the US post swine flu to test "reported at the time" vs actual numbers. Statistical re-examination of both retained test specimens, consultation reports and ... human remains. It was found that deaths 'at the time' were significantly understated in the US during that pandemic. As obvious as that research conclusion may sound - that a specific group of professionals under pressure tended more towards missing things than towards over-estimating them - it's taken additional importance recently as a reality-based counter to the fakenews narrative that "Oh COVID is over-reported because <insert conspiratorial motive/perverse financial incentive here>".

A certain quote from the awful Donald Rumsfeld springs to mind.
 

Lawnchair Larry

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2015
1,549
1,823
AFL Club
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As at 1 May 2021

So far, 2,235,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been delivered across Australia.

Change from previous day: 58,000

Taking Australia's population as 25.8mill current % vaccinated = (2.24/25.8) x 100:
8.7% (previous day 8.4%)
 

Holden Hillbilly

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 8, 2004
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India reported a record high of 401,993 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday. No other country has breached 400,000 daily cases.
Crematoriums across India are overwhelmed with bodies. Patients are gasping for breath and dying as hospitals run out of oxygen. The country had reported more than 300,000 new cases each day for nine consecutive days before hitting the 400,000 mark.
India also reported more than 3,500 deaths on Saturday – the fourth day in a row that death counts have surpassed 3,000. Those numbers are likely an undercount. A New York Times investigation published this week found “mounting evidence” that suggested fatalities are being “overlooked or downplayed” by the government.
“From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported,” Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, told the Times.
 

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