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India reports 379,164 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 3,646 new deaths.
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Talking to a colleague who has family in India and they said that one member of a family group tested positive for COVID-19 and all the other members of the group had the same symptoms but didn't bother getting tested as they then knew that they all had Covid. So anecdotally that would suggest that the number of new cases is very understated.India reports 379,164 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 3,646 new deaths.
Yep the data is going to get awful complicated soon..let alone the actual practicalities.
My understanding - and I have forgotten the reference - is that some participants in the AZ trial went out to a 26 week gap between 1st and 2nd injections. They found that efficacy dropped away with time between injections, after an ideal time gap. So the message is that they need to be relatively tight on time protocols for the 2nd dose.
That single dose J&J product starts to look attractive from that perspective.
As at 29 Apr 2021:
So far, 2,112,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been delivered across Australia.
Change from previous day: 82,000
Taking Australia's population as 25.8mill current % vaccinated = (2.11/25.8) x 100:
8.2% (previous day 7.9%)
Could be another lockdown in perth, a security guard working at a medi hotel has tested positive
HuhCovid lurking in the waste water in Western suburbs. I bet it's people who circumvented via travel bubble.
India hit 100k daily cases on 4th April and they are talking a peak of 500k a day in mid May. But that means it will still be 100k a day for at least 6 weeks after the peak.
As we have seen around the world, when the health system gets overloaded the mortality rate goes from around 1% to somewhere between 3% to 6%, even higher in Italy's case and got to 14% of positive cases in April/May last year. India's mortality rate has been sitting on around 1.5% for 6 months but that will zoom up unfortunately.
Victoria's mortality rate went from 0.86% to 4.40% between 1st July and 15th October last year.
So that's probably 10 million cases recorded in a first 6 weeks to the peak and maybe the same in the next 6 weeks.
That means that from mid April to mid June anywhere from 300k to 500k could die from those reported positive cases. That is bloody scary, especially given the current official tally passed 200k today. 40k have died in April.
People are dying from covid at the moment who haven't even been tested so they won't be recorded as a covid death. The excess deaths stats wont come out for several months to get a truer picture.