Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 4.

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Papa G

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It hasn't due to restrictions and lockdowns you keep crying about you absolute omelette.

You're in serious denial if you think the
NSW health will get through this fine. the requirements of surge capacity seriously impacts health outcomes in other areas of a acute healthcare system. They'll have hundreds of deaths and hundreds of excess deaths due to covid. That's absolutely guaranteed. Nobody will be opening their borders to NSW till well after New year's
Omlettes are delicious.
 

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manureid

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10 of those 12 people hadn't received the first dose.

According to a few people in this thread, they made their choice and deserve no sympathy anyway.
Fwiw, I've never seen Papa G display that kind of sentiment.
Maybe read back then. He has stated before if old people need to die or people with existing health conditions, then so be it.
 

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pastmyprimus

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I'm more interested in the number who had pre existing health issues to be honest.
People with existing health conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure etc etc can lead long lives if those conditions are managed through taking medications and changing lifestyle. Covid can cut those lives short. You can be dead within weeks if you catch the virus.

Many with health conditions aren’t so sickly that they are on the verge of death.
 

backtozero

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People with existing health conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure etc etc can lead long lives if those conditions are managed through taking medications and changing lifestyle. Covid can cut those lives short. You can be dead within weeks if you catch the virus.

Many with health conditions aren’t so sickly that they are on the verge of death.
Covid is also really, really bad for the obese.

Whilst everyone at risk should get vaccinated, everyone should also be doing everything in their power to get healthy.
It's a shame how heavily the messaging is pointed in one direction only.
 

Papa G

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Papa G is the Covid threads version of the famous Thundercloud from the Sack Hinkley thread. He is having a laugh at everyones expense by trolling hard.
Carn. Thundercloud is OGC level intelligence.

Maybe read back then. He has stated before if old people need to die or people with existing health conditions, then so be it.
They don't need to die. I have consistently argued that enormous and I mean enormous disruption to the economic, social and cultural fabric of the nation is no where close to being in equilibrium to the casualties it has caused.

I've lead a pretty charmed life, but I just feel we are so far away from actual hardship, the pant pissers in this country actually terrify me. What happens if there's an actual real problem? The people that have done it hardest in this "Pandemic" are the people who's livelihoods have been destroyed. By and large they are small business owners not allowed to operate. These actions have shrunk the middle class. People are going to be more and more cocooned in their own isolation. Where are the working class going to work? Retail has been decimated. There's only so many package delivery jobs going around. The gap between the haves and have nots will be wider. Look at property prices FFS. The nature of society has been changed, when we get out of this 2-3 year "Pandemic" with a couple of thousand COVID deaths, average age 86.8, people will start saying WTF was that all about?
 

backtozero

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Carn. Thundercloud is OGC level intelligence.



They don't need to die. I have consistently argued that enormous and I mean enormous disruption to the economic, social and cultural fabric of the nation is no where close to being in equilibrium to the casualties it has caused.

I've lead a pretty charmed life, but I just feel we are so far away from actual hardship, the pant pissers in this country actually terrify me. What happens if there's an actual real problem? The people that have done it hardest in this "Pandemic" are the people who's livelihoods have been destroyed. By and large they are small business owners not allowed to operate. These actions have shrunk the middle class. People are going to be more and more cocooned in their own isolation. Where are the working class going to work? Retail has been decimated. There's only so many package delivery jobs going around. The gap between the haves and have nots will be wider. Look at property prices FFS. The nature of society has been changed, when we get out of this 2-3 year "Pandemic" with a couple of thousand COVID deaths, average age 86.8, people will start saying WTF was that all about?
Agreed. No-one wants old people to die but some perspective is needed.

This article sums things up well:

 

Papa G

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Agreed. No-one wants old people to die but some perspective is needed.

This article sums things up well:

That is a very good article.
 

raptalia

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In the UK 80% of people over 16 are now fully vaccinated yet they are still recording 200 deaths a day. If we translate that to Australia it is 60 deaths a day. that does not seem too many but if you multiply by the magic number it is 21,900 deaths in a year Australia wide. You do not need Doherty Institute modelling to see the projected impact of lifting restrictions with 70% of the population vaccinated.

Of course the majority of those UK deaths may be unvaccinated or have underlying health conditions but these are still deaths on top of the 30,000 positive cases a day. This means there is still a tremendous strain on the UK's NHS. If the UK is returning those figures with 80% of 16 plus vaccinated it call to question what will happen with Gladys and ScoMo's 70% vaccination target.

Some will say yes, but the UK has denser populations in larger cities and that is true but Australia has remote communities like Wilcannia where vaccination rates are comparatively low and getting specialised hospital care is extremely difficult. In South Australia doctors on Eyre Peninsula which is far from remote have warned that they do not have the ICU facilities to cope with a surge in serious cases.

Australia has to open up for sure but our leaders need to be careful about it and the concern is that Berejiklian and Morrison are talking about opening up when the infection rate is still high and the death rate is increasing.
 

chiwigi

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Apr 9, 2009
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In the UK 80% of people over 16 are now fully vaccinated yet they are still recording 200 deaths a day. If we translate that to Australia it is 60 deaths a day. that does not seem too many but if you multiply by the magic number it is 21,900 deaths in a year Australia wide. You do not need Doherty Institute modelling to see the projected impact of lifting restrictions with 70% of the population vaccinated.

Of course the majority of those UK deaths may be unvaccinated or have underlying health conditions but these are still deaths on top of the 30,000 positive cases a day. This means there is still a tremendous strain on the UK's NHS. If the UK is returning those figures with 80% of 16 plus vaccinated it call to question what will happen with Gladys and ScoMo's 70% vaccination target.

Some will say yes, but the UK has denser populations in larger cities and that is true but Australia has remote communities like Wilcannia where vaccination rates are comparatively low and getting specialised hospital care is extremely difficult. In South Australia doctors on Eyre Peninsula which is far from remote have warned that they do not have the ICU facilities to cope with a surge in serious cases.

Australia has to open up for sure but our leaders need to be careful about it and the concern is that Berejiklian and Morrison are talking about opening up when the infection rate is still high and the death rate is increasing.
Population density outside of London isn't that great:
Birmingham 4200 per square km
Melbourne 22400 per square km
377.2 people per square km for England

Aussie cities are JAMMED! The country isn't densely populated, the cities certainly are.
 
Last edited:

edgie

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In the UK 80% of people over 16 are now fully vaccinated yet they are still recording 200 deaths a day. If we translate that to Australia it is 60 deaths a day. that does not seem too many but if you multiply by the magic number it is 21,900 deaths in a year Australia wide. You do not need Doherty Institute modelling to see the projected impact of lifting restrictions with 70% of the population vaccinated.

Of course the majority of those UK deaths may be unvaccinated or have underlying health conditions but these are still deaths on top of the 30,000 positive cases a day. This means there is still a tremendous strain on the UK's NHS. If the UK is returning those figures with 80% of 16 plus vaccinated it call to question what will happen with Gladys and ScoMo's 70% vaccination target.

Some will say yes, but the UK has denser populations in larger cities and that is true but Australia has remote communities like Wilcannia where vaccination rates are comparatively low and getting specialised hospital care is extremely difficult. In South Australia doctors on Eyre Peninsula which is far from remote have warned that they do not have the ICU facilities to cope with a surge in serious cases.

Australia has to open up for sure but our leaders need to be careful about it and the concern is that Berejiklian and Morrison are talking about opening up when the infection rate is still high and the death rate is increasing.
Lol vaccination rates at Wilcannia are no longer that low.

Problem is they'll hit the wall soon and need to start the war on unvaccinated. They'll find that twice as hard in the Aboriginal population.

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edgie

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The camps at Wilcannia with the fences and the searchlights and the army on guard would upset a few bleeding hearts.

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Lawnchair Larry

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Apr 1, 2015
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I see NSW are urging their people to have their second AZ at 4 weeks after their first dose to boost those 2 dose vaccination rates.
Gladys will boast ( as she does) about reaching 70% and 80% fast but I wonder if sub optimal immunity in those who have had AZ will affect outcomes when they open up.
Diminishing the dose interval is contrary to what I have been reading:


And from the British Medical Journal referenced in that article re AZ dose:

"The study found vaccine efficacy reached 82.4 per cent after a second dose in those with a dosing interval of 12 weeks or more.
If the two doses were given less than six weeks apart the efficacy was only 54.9 per cent."
Note the "or more" bit of that quote.

The confusion is because the AZ clinical trial was a dog's dinner, with half doses given instead of full doses (at the first jab) for some participants, and production delays mucking up dosing intervals. This generated a situation where the time between doses was divided into 4 categories: < 6 weeks, 6-8 weeks, 9 -11 weeks and >12 weeks.

Clearly the ">12 weeks" category invites speculation.

At the outset when I heard the AZ dose interval could satisfactorily be 4 - 12 weeks (Aust TGA recommended), my first thought was that the sweet spot was at 8 weeks, with +/- 4 weeks on either side being acceptable.

I was surprised when the dose interval was then set to 12 weeks.

I was further surprised when, on ABCs 7.30 program, UNSW epidemiologist Prof Marie-Louise McLaws raised the ante even further, nominated 90 -120 days (~13-17weeks) as even more efficacious for AZ.

So it strikes me that dropping to an 4 week dosing interval is going the wrong way for the AZ vaccine (I have recently read that a 9 week delay for the Pfizer dose is better than the quoted 3 weeks as well, but that is by the by).
Clinical data for the initial AZ trial is hard to find. The best I could do was to find this well referenced blog site. I think it's best to go straight to the efficacy tables before assaulting the text, if you are fearless.

https://criticalcareblogspot.com/20...ter-doses-would-a-single-dose-be-efficacious/

Im also interested in EFFICACY in this initial trial. We are currently told the vaccine addresses SEVERITY, but the trial seems to address symptoms without grading those symptoms. The blog reference above seems to indicate they sent vaccinated and control groups out into the populace before inviting them back and counting up those who had symptoms in each group. In some ways the initial trial addressed eradication rather than severity.
 

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