Steve Dore
International Trade Facilitator
- Aug 30, 2004
- 36,121
- 64,973
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Vikings, Canadiens, Sharks
Did they read out KT's email?
Corona virus, Port and the AFL.
- Thread starter raptalia
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
Did they read out KT's email?
chiwigi
I’ll make tears from your Wines.
True for too many, but there are also far too many who are being stubborn bastards.
Steve Dore
International Trade Facilitator
- Aug 30, 2004
- 36,121
- 64,973
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Vikings, Canadiens, Sharks
You know that Geoff is a Baby Boomer and deserves to die from COVID-19 right?
Yep there is some selfish dumb fcuks around.
After the Cummins fiasco with the Covid19 Senator some people from that meeting after being told to self isolate were in the Cummins hardware store plus also some were doing shopping in Port Lincoln.
After the Cummins fiasco with the Covid19 Senator some people from that meeting after being told to self isolate were in the Cummins hardware store plus also some were doing shopping in Port Lincoln.
pastmyprimus
Norm Smith Medallist
Veteran
Port Adelaide - Allir Allir Player Sponsor 2021
Port Adelaide - Kane Farrell Player Sponsor 2021
Port Adelaide - Zak Butters 2019 Player Sponsor
Port Adelaide - Jack Watts Player Sponsor 2018
Port Adelaide - Jesse Palmer Player Sponsor 2017
Port Adelaide - Riley Bonner Player Sponsor 2016
Port Adelaide - Nathan Krakouer Player Sponsor 2015
The Uni of Sydney ran a computer simulation that attempted to model the whole population of Australia. It started by creating the software equivalent of 24m Aussies, then applied assumptions about inter-personal contact rates and virus transmissions rates. It then ran scenarios for different degrees of compliance with social distancing.
A strength of the model is that it's very much Aussie based, not one that was developed overseas for a different population. Their results may not apply to smaller geographical areas in Aus with different population make-ups but still very useful for governments.
And I agree - a risk based approach to tackle the virus makes sense.
Leaveit2charlie
Club Legend
- Jan 29, 2016
- 2,110
- 2,004
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
They've got a point. Now what happens next?
A Different Way to Chart the Spread of Coronavirus (Published 2020)
Those skyrocketing curves tell an alarming story. But logarithmic graphs can help reveal when the pandemic begins to slow.
Logarithmic graphs are the best way to track a pandemic. You cant just assume continued exponential growth.
China and Korea have well and truly turned the corner.
Italy and Iran despite their total cases going up have started to flatten the curve if you look at worldometer.com and will turn the corner soon.
Australia is not that far behind.
This will all be settling down much sooner than predicted and way before a vaccine eventuates.
Looking at the logarithmic graphs and comparing it to other countries (where all fitting the China and Korea bell curves) I predict Australia curve to start to flatten in the next few days, for us to hit peak total cases in 2-3 weeks and for the total cases to be half that number 2-3 weeks later.
On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Can't believe the s**t that's being dribbled out of the chief medical officers mouth. He thinks we may end up going into a full lockdown but won't go now? and the 30 minute haircut law changed overnight because "like everything it changes from day to day" 
This government is a genuine joke.
The royal commission in 2025 will be enormous.
This government is a genuine joke.The royal commission in 2025 will be enormous.
Please be rightA Different Way to Chart the Spread of Coronavirus (Published 2020)
Those skyrocketing curves tell an alarming story. But logarithmic graphs can help reveal when the pandemic begins to slow.www.google.com
Logarithmic graphs are the best way to track a pandemic. You cant just assume continued exponential growth.
China and Korea have well and truly turned the corner.
Italy and Iran despite their total cases going up have started to flatten the curve if you look at worldometer.com and will turn the corner soon.
Australia is not that far behind.
This will all be settling down much sooner than predicted and way before a vaccine eventuates.
Looking at the logarithmic graphs and comparing it to other countries (where all fitting the China and Korea bell curves) I predict Australia curve to start to flatten in the next few days, for us to hit peak total cases in 2-3 weeks and for the total cases to be half that number 2-3 weeks later.
On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
You haven't quite taken into account that we haven't even entered flu season yet and other countries have come out of them which will no doubt make this worse for us in the coming months. You're also banking on the restrictions that we are at now will take effect in the coming weeks.A Different Way to Chart the Spread of Coronavirus (Published 2020)
Those skyrocketing curves tell an alarming story. But logarithmic graphs can help reveal when the pandemic begins to slow.
Logarithmic graphs are the best way to track a pandemic. You cant just assume continued exponential growth.
China and Korea have well and truly turned the corner.
Italy and Iran despite their total cases going up have started to flatten the curve if you look at worldometer.com and will turn the corner soon.
Australia is not that far behind.
This will all be settling down much sooner than predicted and way before a vaccine eventuates.
Looking at the logarithmic graphs and comparing it to other countries (where all fitting the China and Korea bell curves) I predict Australia curve to start to flatten in the next few days, for us to hit peak total cases in 2-3 weeks and for the total cases to be half that number 2-3 weeks later.
On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
I hope you're right and the medical experts here at the Alfred are wrong. I've seen about 55 versions of that graph.
RussellEbertHandball
Flick pass expert
That's why I look at ones like these two, a deaths logarithmic graphsA Different Way to Chart the Spread of Coronavirus (Published 2020)
Those skyrocketing curves tell an alarming story. But logarithmic graphs can help reveal when the pandemic begins to slow.
Logarithmic graphs are the best way to track a pandemic. You cant just assume continued exponential growth.
China and Korea have well and truly turned the corner.
Italy and Iran despite their total cases going up have started to flatten the curve if you look at worldometer.com and will turn the corner soon.
Australia is not that far behind.
This will all be settling down much sooner than predicted and way before a vaccine eventuates.
Looking at the logarithmic graphs and comparing it to other countries (where all fitting the China and Korea bell curves) I predict Australia curve to start to flatten in the next few days, for us to hit peak total cases in 2-3 weeks and for the total cases to be half that number 2-3 weeks later.
On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Can't believe the s**t that's being dribbled out of the chief medical officers mouth. He thinks we may end up going into a full lockdown but won't go now? and the 30 minute haircut law changed overnight because "like everything it changes from day to day"
The royal commission in 2025 will be enormous.
The longer this goes on the more I think the chief medical officer is a liberal party stooge. Completely at odds with the medical profession it seems
RussellEbertHandball
Flick pass expert
The chief medical officer isn't a virologist or an expert in epidemiology and infectious diseases. If the CMO's expertise were those fields he/she probably would have pushed the government harder.
His field of expertise is kidneys and then moved into work on cancer. He has sat/sits on lots healthcare industry boards and was CEO of Austin Health before he got the gig as CMO.
His deputy Dr Paul Kelly makes gravy -ohps that's for the dad joke thread. Kelly is an epidemiologist and you will notice a slightly different emphasis when he talks about things compared to Dr Brendan Murphy.
They are all getting different opinions and they have to balance up health needs with what they think they can sell to society and at what stage as this develops.
Couldn't pay me enough for me to want to do their jobs.
If you haven't got your health, you haven't got anything.
The Princess Bride clip with quote If you haven't got your health, you haven't got anything. Yarn is the best search for video clips by quote. Find the exact moment in a TV show, movie, or music video you want to share. Easily move forward or backward to get to the perfect clip.
yarn.co
The funny thing is the businesses that are still open , retail , barbers ect all want a full lockdown anyway as they're not getting business , they feel unsafe and they can't access the governments financial rescue package if they're made to stay open. What a mess. Hopefully Victoria and NSW go ahead tomorrow.
- Jun 12, 2012
- 20,534
- 65,312
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
I saw the guy who owns Just Cuts on the news just before literally begging to be shut down.
With everyone panic buying alchohol now we expect to get busy and bringing forward wines that were planned to be bottled june/July to the next few weeks..
- Feb 7, 2014
- 13,476
- 27,883
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Chelsea FC , Boston Red Sox/celtics
- Jul 5, 2013
- 7,037
- 13,419
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Reckon we can get #stopthehaircuts trending?
The Italian numbers are pretty fascinating the last two days. It initially seems like they are treading water or at worse going slightly backwards, until you look at the amount of tests they are doing (third column at the top).
It seems they are now testing more and more people, whether that's a function of having more kits available, or a function of having the labour resource to achieve this I don't know. It's not an unreasonable stretch to suggest that their new cases have a higher proportion of mild cases now - given the lower % of positives and the wider range of tests. So if it's strategic, perhaps they are shifting focus to a phase of "identify all carriers", rather than being in the totally overwhelmed "only test high risk people" phase.
Given the amount of tests done is something they can somewhat control (obviously assuming they have the kits), I've created the below using the positive rates of the day, but assuming they tested the same amount of cases each day, and this is how it would look, and it tells quite a different story:
It seems they are now testing more and more people, whether that's a function of having more kits available, or a function of having the labour resource to achieve this I don't know. It's not an unreasonable stretch to suggest that their new cases have a higher proportion of mild cases now - given the lower % of positives and the wider range of tests. So if it's strategic, perhaps they are shifting focus to a phase of "identify all carriers", rather than being in the totally overwhelmed "only test high risk people" phase.
Given the amount of tests done is something they can somewhat control (obviously assuming they have the kits), I've created the below using the positive rates of the day, but assuming they tested the same amount of cases each day, and this is how it would look, and it tells quite a different story:
Had a quick look at the numbers for where people are in the system over the same period of time and it does seem to reflect my thoughts. ICU cases as a percentage of the total are steadily decreasing, hospitalised cases have more variance but are somewhat decreasing, and mild 'no hospital' cases are increasing.
The problem is that we can't see where cases are going (ie cases don't just stay in their position until resolution - we can't see which of those that are "in hospital" on the 24th March are new cases, and which are ICU cases that recovered, or "no hospital" cases that got worse).
It is worth noting in terms of hospital strain that they have only increased their total cases in ICU by 1000 in the past week, despite an overall case increase of 39000 in that time.
The problem is that we can't see where cases are going (ie cases don't just stay in their position until resolution - we can't see which of those that are "in hospital" on the 24th March are new cases, and which are ICU cases that recovered, or "no hospital" cases that got worse).
It is worth noting in terms of hospital strain that they have only increased their total cases in ICU by 1000 in the past week, despite an overall case increase of 39000 in that time.
- Status
