Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

RobbieGray17

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 19, 2007
10,893
5,416
adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
odel is that it's very much Aussie based, not one that was developed overseas for a different population. Their results may not apply to smaller geographical areas in Aus with different population make-ups but still very useful for governments.
Had a quick look at the numbers for where people are in the system over the same period of time and it does seem to reflect my thoughts. ICU cases as a percentage of the total are steadily decreasing, hospitalised cases have more variance but are somewhat decreasing, and mild 'no hospital' cases are increasing.

The problem is that we can't see where cases are going (ie cases don't just stay in their position until resolution - we can't see which of those that are "in hospital" on the 24th March are new cases, and which are ICU cases that recovered, or "no hospital" cases that got worse).

It is worth noting in terms of hospital strain that they have only increased their total cases in ICU by 1000 in the past week, despite an overall case increase of 39000 in that time.

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Good to see news ltd scaremongering on Italy. Figures improved after 11 days.will take at least 19 days to see reasonable drop
 

Capital Power

Premiership Player
Jul 31, 2005
4,848
7,402
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Yeah there's still so much unsubstantiated click bait around - even the analysis in here has more basis than most of the "news". I do worry about the ongoing mental health issues of people who consume a lot of this rubbish.

Turn your TV off, folks, and go for a walk (by yourself). It'll be the best thing you do today, especially given this pleasant autumn weather.
 

Power Girl

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 30, 2012
6,586
21,772
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
AFAIK teachers who are in high risk categories have already been given leave. Several at our school have.
We have some at our site in high risk categories who are still here for a number of reasons including: not enough sick leave, no job stability so feel under pressure to remain and the old 'we don't do that at our school' routine aka guilt. I was talking to one and she was actually frightened and in tears about it as I was encouraging her to stay home as there would be leave exemptions etc. for high risk categories.

But no not all of them are actually accessing this leave.

You know how there is different messages and expectactions that come from federal govts and state govts well schools are the same. We have certain messages from central office and then different messages from individual sites.
 

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Papa G

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 13, 2006
22,865
43,274
The Bitter End
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Port Adelaide
Yeah there's still so much unsubstantiated click bait around - even the analysis in here has more basis than most of the "news". I do worry about the ongoing mental health issues of people who consume a lot of this rubbish.

Turn your TV off, folks, and go for a walk (by yourself). It'll be the best thing you do today, especially given this pleasant autumn weather.
Yep. Normally flick on the tv in the mornings and just have it on in the back ground but I don't think I've done it all this week. The sight of Kochie/ Sam or those Ugos on the ABC crapping on about this turns my stomach.
 

PAFC04

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2008
3,177
1,684
Adelaide
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Anything in Black'n'White
If anything good comes out of this, I just hope it breaks down the hatred in all religions and countries that are at war bringing the world together to assist each other.

Also, if there is a time to buy Aussie made, it’s now people... keep jobs in 🇦🇺
 

sobrave

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2015
10,354
19,700
42° south
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Had a quick look at the numbers for where people are in the system over the same period of time and it does seem to reflect my thoughts. ICU cases as a percentage of the total are steadily decreasing, hospitalised cases have more variance but are somewhat decreasing, and mild 'no hospital' cases are increasing.

The problem is that we can't see where cases are going (ie cases don't just stay in their position until resolution - we can't see which of those that are "in hospital" on the 24th March are new cases, and which are ICU cases that recovered, or "no hospital" cases that got worse).

It is worth noting in terms of hospital strain that they have only increased their total cases in ICU by 1000 in the past week, despite an overall case increase of 39000 in that time.

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It seems to be slowing a bit around lombardia now but the worry is that it's started increasing in the south.
 

pastmyprimus

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 19, 2011
5,526
19,362
Too far from the heartland
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
The number of NSW cases of community transmission has increased to 145.

This is the stage of the spread that needs be to avoided as the virus can't be traced back to a certain person. It has the potential to rapidly increase the spread in communities. The NSW premier is making noices about upping restrictions. I think this is the main reason.
 

Capital Power

Premiership Player
Jul 31, 2005
4,848
7,402
Canberra
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Port Adelaide
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The number of NSW cases of community transmission has increased to 145.

This is the stage of the spread that needs be to avoided as the virus can't be traced back to a certain person. It has the potential to rapidly increase the spread in communities. The NSW premier is making noices about upping restrictions. I think this is the main reason.
20min for a haircut? Noooooooooooo.
 

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MaxPowa

Senior List
Aug 20, 2018
156
291
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Jeff Kennett has come out this morning and said that the government should have acted hard much sooner. He's wants to see tougher restrictions implemented now. Took me by surprise
What an idiot, it's clear what we are doing is working now - test, track and trace is working now.

I wish people like this and the gaggle of doctors (with little to no expertise in the field, clearly no idea around demographics, statistical analysis or economics to name a few deficiencies) would shut up, stop baiting the media and get back to their secure jobs.
 

Harlott

Club Legend
Jul 5, 2010
1,255
1,850
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
What an idiot, it's clear what we are doing is working now - test, track and trace is working now.

I wish people like this and the gaggle of doctors (with little to no expertise in the field, clearly no idea around demographics, statistical analysis or economics to name a few deficiencies) would shut up, stop baiting the media and get back to their secure jobs.
Are you guessing or do you have a thorough handle on the situation?
 

pastmyprimus

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 19, 2011
5,526
19,362
Too far from the heartland
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
What an idiot, it's clear what we are doing is working now - test, track and trace is working now.

I wish people like this and the gaggle of doctors (with little to no expertise in the field, clearly no idea around demographics, statistical analysis or economics to name a few deficiencies) would shut up, stop baiting the media and get back to their secure jobs.
Too early to be declare that. You talk about test, track and trace. Trace doesn't work for community transmissions because they can't be traced. Community transmissions are rising especially in NSW.

Epidemiologists are the experts in predicting the spread of this virus, and they're still predicting rapid spreading. They're very concerned about community transmissions.
 

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